MTN Nigeria has reported a staggering N1.1tn profit for the 2025 financial year. This turnaround marks a significant departure from the fiscal headwinds of 2024, signalling a robust resurgence in the country’s digital economy.

Speaking on Channels Television on Tuesday, the Chief Financial Officer of MTN Nigeria, Modupe Kadri, broke down the numbers that defined the company’s “impressive” performance. He revealed that the firm achieved a 22.9 per cent increase in service revenue, reaching N392.2bn, fuelled by a surge in third-quarter activity.

The recovery was not a matter of chance but the result of aggressive capital expenditure. Kadri disclosed that the company’s investment in the sector has reached unprecedented levels. “We spent about N1tn in 2025, significantly higher than our 2024 investment levels. We will continue now that we have a business case to make this investment,” he explained.

Despite the massive profit and the deployment of over 2,850 new network sites, the CFO offered a grounded perspective on when consumers will feel the full impact of these billions. He addressed the recurring question of whether increased income immediately equates to better service quality. “The telecommunications industry is capital-intensive. Even when the capital is available, improvements in network infrastructure take time to materialise. We are not out of the woods yet, but the impact of such investments will be fully realised in time,” he said.

Looking towards the future, MTN is shifting its focus toward the “unconnected” segments of the Nigerian population. With the industry’s total investment exceeding $1bn, the company is eyeing a 70 per cent broadband penetration rate through a mixture of traditional and frontier technologies. “There is a growing need to expand connectivity as Nigeria’s population increases. Areas previously classified as rural require improved population coverage. Our goal is to exceed 2025 investment levels with the Bridge Project and a ‘satellite revolution’ aimed at closing the rural connectivity gap,” he added.

Kadri concluded that while private investment remains a pillar of their growth, much of this massive expansion is currently funded by the company’s own operating cash flow.

Telecommunications companies expect to benefit from a $1bn artificial intelligence fund announced by the United Arab Emirates to bolster digital infrastructure across Africa, with Nigeria a central focus.

Industry executives say the initiative could speed broadband rollout, encourage artificial intelligence adoption, and draw more private investment into the country’s rapidly expanding digital economy.

“The growing partnership between Nigeria and the UAE is a very welcome development, especially as it is beginning to extend into technology and the digital economy,” President of the Association of Telecommunications Companies of Nigeria, Tony Izuagbe Emoekpere, told The PUNCH.

“Nigeria’s digital space is expanding very quickly, and partnerships like this can help accelerate investments in areas such as broadband networks, data centres, cloud services, and even emerging technologies like artificial intelligence

UAE Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs for International Development, Sultan Al Shamsi, highlighted the initiative in a statement, stating, “Our $1bn AI for development Initiative, designed to strengthen digital infrastructure across Africa, with Nigeria as a key partner, underscores our commitment to building long-term, future-ready cooperation. We see Nigeria not only as a major economy, but as a country positioned to lead in shaping Africa’s next phase of growth.”

The announcement comes against the backdrop of growing UAE–Nigeria economic ties. Non-oil trade between the two countries reached $4.3bn in 2024 and approximately $3.1bn during the first nine months of 2025, reflecting expanding commercial activity in logistics, agriculture, and digital services.

Emoekpere explained why Nigeria is an attractive destination for technology and telecom investment. “We have a very large population, and a significant portion of that population is young and increasingly comfortable with technology.

“Smartphone usage is rising, and people are consuming more data every year as they rely more on digital services for business, communication, education, entertainment, and financial services. This growing demand naturally creates strong opportunities for investment in telecom and digital infrastructure,” he said.

He added that the AI initiative presents opportunities to strengthen critical infrastructure.

“Nigeria still needs significant investment in broadband networks, fibre infrastructure, data centres, and other technologies that support the digital economy. Partnerships with countries like the UAE can bring in the capital, expertise, and technology needed to strengthen Nigeria’s connectivity ecosystem,” Emoekpere said.

Al Shamsi further explained the UAE’s investment in the “AI for Development” initiative, noting that “Nigeria is among the priority countries under the ‘AI for Development’ initiative due to its population and economic weight, its pivotal role in West Africa, and its clear ambitions in the digital economy.

“The initiative does not follow a rigid country-by-country distribution; funding is allocated flexibly according to national project readiness and Nigerian government priorities. The sectors expected to benefit first include government services and digital transformation, fintech and financial inclusion, digital health, smart agriculture, public data systems, and digital infrastructure, ensuring a direct impact on citizens’ lives and economic growth.”

He further noted that “all projects are implemented in partnership with national government entities and in accordance with local legal and regulatory frameworks in Nigeria, including data protection and privacy laws.”

According to Al Shamsi, “the initiative emphasises building local capacity in data management and model development, rather than merely using local data for external solutions. Supported projects are required to contribute to knowledge transfer and develop systems that can be operated and advanced locally over the long term.”

The growing crisis in the Middle East is tightening the noose around Africa’s fuel supply chain, with many countries now running on just weeks of refined petroleum products as key import routes come under severe strain.

This follows escalating tensions linked to the Iran war, which has significantly disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy flows.

According to the International Energy Agency, about 600,000 barrels per day of petroleum products typically destined for Africa from the Middle East are now at risk, as tanker traffic through the corridor slows to a trickle.

The development has forced governments across the continent to urgently seek alternative supply sources, amid fears that wealthier nations could outbid African buyers in an increasingly tight global market.

A report by Bloomberg noted that the unfolding disruption is exposing long-standing structural weaknesses in Africa’s energy system, particularly the continent’s heavy dependence on imported refined products due to years of refinery closures and underinvestment.

Data from energy analytics firm Kpler also paints a stark picture of the disruption, noting that petroleum product loadings fell sharply from 580,000 metric tonnes in January to 183,000 metric tonnes in February, representing a steep decline of 397,000 metric tonnes, or 68.4 per cent.

The situation worsened in March, as volumes plunged further to zero, marking a complete 100 per cent drop from February levels.

Overall, the region lost the entire 580,000 metric tonnes recorded at the start of the quarter, underscoring a total supply breakdown within just three months and reflecting the severity of disruptions in global fuel trade flows.

Industry tracking also showed that several cargoes originally destined for Europe and Africa have been rerouted to Asia, where demand has surged amid the crisis.

One such vessel, the Brest, initially bound for Rotterdam after loading in India, abruptly changed course near East Africa and diverted towards Indonesia, highlighting the shifting dynamics in global fuel trade.

The ripple effects are already being felt across Africa, particularly in East and Southern regions, where dependence on Middle Eastern fuel imports is highest.

“We are looking everywhere for supply options,” Director-General at South Africa’s Department of Mineral Resources, Jacob Mbele, said in an interview.

“We are comfortable that in the coming weeks or so, we are safe, but the situation is fluid; it changes every day,” he added.

The report warned that securing fuel cargoes will become increasingly difficult for African countries, many of which operate with limited foreign exchange reserves and weak bargaining power.

The crisis is further compounded by the continent’s declining refining capacity. Despite accounting for about seven per cent of global crude oil production, Africa has lost roughly a third of its refining capacity over the past two decades.

This has left many economies heavily reliant on imports from the Middle East, a dependence now proving costly.

In East Africa, countries such as Kenya, which consume about 100,000 barrels of fuel daily and import all its requirements, are particularly vulnerable. The country maintains just 21 days of fuel stock, leaving little margin for disruption.

Chairman of the Petroleum Outlets Association of Kenya, Martin Chomba, said the situation is already biting.

“The biggest suppliers are rationing product, and some distributors are experiencing stock-outs in rural areas,” he said.

Similarly, Ethiopia has urged citizens to cut down on fuel consumption as the government prioritises essential services.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said in a public statement that fuel use must now be directed towards “basic and essential needs,” reflecting the growing strain on supply.

Nigeria recorded crude oil imports worth $3.74bn linked to operations of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in 2025, highlighting a major shift in the country’s oil trade structure despite its status as a crude producer.

This was disclosed in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Balance of Payments report, which showed that “Crude oil imports of $3.74bn by Dangote Refinery” contributed to movements in the country’s current account position.

The report noted that Nigeria posted a current account surplus of $14.04bn in 2025, lower than the $19.03bn recorded in 2024 but significantly higher than $6.42bn in 2023.

The decline from 2024 was driven partly by structural changes in oil trade flows, including crude imports for domestic refining. Data in the report showed that crude oil exports dropped from $36.85bn in 2024 to $31.54bn in 2025, representing a 14.41 per cent decline, further shaping the external balance.

At the same time, the goods account remained in surplus at $14.51bn in 2025, rising from $13.17bn in 2024, supported largely by activities linked to the Dangote refinery and improved export performance in other segments.

The CBN stated that the stronger goods balance was driven by “significant export of refined petroleum products worth $5.85bn by Dangote Refinery,” alongside increased gas exports to other economies.

The report added that the refinery’s operations also reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel, noting that “availability of refined petroleum products from Dangote Refinery also led to a substantial decline in fuel imports.”

Specifically, refined petroleum product imports fell sharply to $10.00bn in 2025 from $14.06bn in 2024, representing a 28.88 per cent decline, while total oil-related imports also eased.

However, this was offset by a rise in non-oil imports, which increased from $25.74bn to $29.24bn, up 13.60 per cent year-on-year, reflecting sustained demand for foreign goods.

Further pressure on the current account came from higher external payments. Net outflows for services rose from $13.36bn in 2024 to $14.58bn in 2025, driven by increased spending on transport, travel, insurance, and other services.

Similarly, net outflows in the primary income account surged by 60.88 per cent to $9.09bn, largely due to higher dividend and interest payments to foreign investors.

In contrast, secondary income inflows declined slightly from $24.88bn in 2024 to $23.20bn in 2025, as official development assistance and personal transfers weakened, although remittances remained a key source of inflow.

On the financial account side, Nigeria recorded a reversal, posting a net borrowing position of $1.69bn in 2025 compared to a net lending position of $9.65bn in 2024.

Portfolio investment inflows fell sharply by 48.3 per cent to $8.04bn, while foreign direct investment inflows rose to $4.01bn from $1.61bn in the previous year, indicating a gradual shift towards longer-term capital.

The report also showed increased investment outflows by Nigerians abroad, with direct and portfolio investment assets rising significantly during the year.

Despite pressures across components, Nigeria’s overall balance of payments remained positive at $4.23bn in 2025, though lower than the $6.83bn surplus recorded in 2024.

External reserves rose to $45.75bn at the end of December 2025, reflecting a 13.83 per cent increase compared to 2024 levels, supported by inflows and improved external buffers.

The PUNCH earlier reported that despite its status as Africa’s largest crude oil producer, Nigeria imported crude oil worth a staggering N5.734tn between January and December 2025 as domestic refineries grappled with persistent feedstock shortages, exposing a deepening supply paradox in the country’s oil sector.

This comes despite the Federal Government’s much-publicised naira-for-crude policy designed to prioritise local supply.

Energy analysts earlier faulted the implementation of the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude policy, arguing that it has failed to significantly improve domestic crude supply or reduce fuel prices.

The Chief Executive Officer of Petroleumprice.ng, Jeremiah Olatide, said the policy has delivered little impact since its introduction in 2024, as most refineries continue to rely heavily on imported crude.

He said, “For me, the naira-for-crude policy that was initiated in 2024 has not yielded any reasonable output because the Dangote refinery still sources about 65 to 70 per cent of its feedstock from abroad, while about 95 per cent of modular refineries also source their crude outside the naira-for-crude initiative.

“So, the initiative, for me, is not effective, and that is why we are still seeing a large inflow and importation of crude oil in 2025. In turn, prices at the depot and pump have not been different from when we were fully importing refined products.”

He noted that while the coming on stream of large-scale refining capacity has improved product availability, it has not translated into price relief for consumers.

“The only difference now is that we no longer have supply fears; there is availability of products. But in terms of pricing, I would say the naira-for-crude policy has not translated into lower prices at the depot or pump,” he added.

Jeremiah attributed this to the continued reliance on international pricing benchmarks, even for locally supplied crude.

Transnational Corporation Plc has signalled a new era of dominance in the African investment landscape, announcing a historic combined market capitalisation of N4.87tn ($3.57bn) as of 16 March 2026.

The conglomerate, which has become a bellwether for the Nigerian Exchange, accompanied this valuation milestone with a commitment to reward its 311,000 shareholders with record-breaking dividend payouts following its best financial performance in history.

The Group’s full-year 2025 results revealed a powerhouse in ascent, with revenue surging 33 per cent to N544.41bn and profit before tax climbing to N179.50bn. These figures underscore the successful execution of a multi-sector strategy spanning power, hospitality, and energy.

Speaking during the 2025 Investors’ Call, the President and Group Chief Executive Officer of Transcorp Plc, Owen Omogiafo, emphasised that the Group’s success is a result of disciplined execution in a volatile environment.

“Transcorp achieved its best financial performance in history in FY 2025, driven by strong execution across power and hospitality.

Despite sector-wide challenges, including gas constraints and inflation, we are well-positioned for sustained expansion and long-term value creation,” she said.

The Group’s “homegrown” strategy has proven particularly effective in its hospitality business, where Transcorp Hotels Plc has insulated itself from global travel disruptions by stimulating domestic consumption and implementing an import substitution strategy for its supply chain.

At the heart of the Group’s valuation surge is its massive footprint in the power sector. Through Transcorp Power Plc and Transafam Power Limited, the Group now controls approximately 2,000 MW of installed capacity, representing 15 per cent of Nigeria’s total grid capacity.

Addressing the critical issue of gas supply and infrastructure, the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Transcorp Power Plc, Peter Ikenga, noted, “We do recognise the value of ensuring consistent, reliable, and stable power generation. We have diversified our sources of gas and multiple pipelines to ensure we are robust. Even with vandalism challenges, we worked quickly to restore operations; we are back and delivering much-needed power to the grid.”

Beyond traditional thermal power, Transcorp is pivoting toward a sustainable future. The Group recently emerged as the successful bidder for a 30 MW interconnected solar-powered mini-grid project in the Federal Capital Territory, a move supported by the World Bank and the Rural Electrification Agency.

The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Transcorp Energy Limited, Christopher Ezeafulukwe, highlighted the significance of this transition. “This is the most oven-fresh news to come out of the renewable energy space in Nigeria. We are taking what we know how to do best, winning assets and turning them around, and applying them to solar. When Transcorp says it is an integrated energy group, we are bringing that to fulfilment,” he stated.

The investors’ call concluded on a high note for shareholders. Despite holding significant receivables from the national power sector, the Group’s leadership assured investors that liquidity remains strong and that impairment write-backs are expected as government settlement tranches proceed.

Reflecting on the Group’s 48.7 per cent compound annual growth rate over the last five years, Ms Omogiafo reiterated the board’s intention to share the spoils of success. “We have proposed a dividend that is higher than what we gave before. We want to reassure you of our commitment to the vision. We are keen to fix power in our country, and power must be fixed. To our long-term investors: the sky is not even our limit,” she added.

With the upcoming Annual General Meetings for Transcorp Plc and Transcorp Power Plc, the market anticipates a formal ratification of these record dividends, further cementing Transcorp’s status as Nigeria’s premier diversified conglomerate.

Global payments giant Mastercard has reached an agreement to acquire stablecoin infrastructure provider BVNK in a deal valued at up to $1.8bn, as the company deepens its push into digital assets and blockchain-based payments.

The agreement, announced on Tuesday, includes up to $300m in contingent payments and is expected to close before the end of the year, subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions.

The acquisition marks one of Mastercard’s most significant moves yet into digital currencies, as financial institutions increasingly explore stablecoins and tokenised deposits to improve cross-border payments, remittances and business transactions.

In a statement, Mastercard said evolving technology continues to reshape how value moves between individuals and businesses, with blockchain-powered digital assets offering the potential to make payments faster, more efficient and programmable. Digital currency payment use cases are expanding rapidly, reaching at least $350bn in transaction volume in 2025, according to the company.

Mastercard said growing regulatory clarity around digital currencies across several markets has encouraged banks and fintech firms to consider offering customers payment options enabled by stablecoins and other tokenised financial instruments.

“We expect that most financial institutions and fintechs will in time provide digital currency services, be it with stablecoins or tokenised deposits,” Chief Product Officer at Mastercard, Jorn Lambert, stated. “We want to support them and their customers with a best-in-class, highly compliant, interoperable offering that brings the benefits of tokenised money to the real world.”

Lambert added that integrating on-chain payment rails into Mastercard’s network would enable greater speed and programmability across a wide range of transactions while maintaining the security and compliance standards associated with traditional payment systems.

While card payments currently dominate consumer transactions globally due to their reach and protections, Mastercard noted that crypto wallets increasingly rely on cards as the preferred credential for enabling everyday spending using digital currencies. Stablecoins, the company said, present growing opportunities in areas such as peer-to-peer transfers, cross-border remittances, payouts and business-to-business payments.

Founded in 2021, BVNK has developed infrastructure designed to bridge traditional fiat currencies and stablecoins. The platform enables businesses to send and receive payments across major blockchain networks in more than 130 countries, positioning it as a key player in payment orchestration between conventional and digital financial systems.

“For all of the advancements made in simplifying the digital currency opportunity, we have only scratched the surface of what’s possible,” Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer of BVNK, Jesse Hemson-Struthers, stated. “This deal brings together complementary capabilities to define and deliver the future of money. Together, we’re able to deliver an unprecedented infrastructure for digital currency-based financial services.”

Mastercard said combining its global payments network with BVNK’s blockchain infrastructure would help create interoperable payment solutions capable of connecting fiat and digital currency systems seamlessly across multiple blockchain networks.

The acquisition also builds on Mastercard’s broader digital asset strategy, including initiatives such as its Crypto Partner Program, aimed at expanding collaboration with fintech firms and accelerating innovation in on-chain payments.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has advanced Nigeria’s 2025 oil and gas licensing round to a critical stage, announcing the completion of the pre-qualification process and formally notifying successful applicants, in a move that signals the transition from screening to competitive bidding.

In a statement issued on Tuesday, the commission announced that the milestone, achieved on March 16, 2026, marks the completion of the initial screening phase conducted in accordance with the 2025 Licensing Round Guidelines and sets the stage for the next phase of the exercise.

The notice, signed by the Head of Media and Strategic Communication, Eniola Akinkuotu, confirmed that only applicants who scaled the pre-qualification hurdle would proceed to access the subsurface data required for bid preparation.

The notice read, “The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission wishes to inform the public that it has completed the pre-qualification stage of the 2025 Licensing Round and has notified successful pre-qualified applicants accordingly.

“This was done on March 16, 2026, in line with the 2025 Licensing Round Guidelines. With the pre-qualification stage now completed, the Commission will, from today, March 17, 2026, permit successful applicants to lease data in preparation for the technical and commercial bid submissions.”

The regulator stressed that access to credible geological and geophysical data would be strictly controlled, underscoring its push for transparency and standardisation in the bid process.

The emphasis on paid data access reflects a deliberate shift by the Commission to ensure that only serious and technically capable investors proceed to the bidding stage, reducing speculative participation.

By insisting on evidence of data purchase before bid submission, the regulator is effectively filtering out unserious bidders while also boosting confidence in the integrity of the process.

The commission directed interested stakeholders to its dedicated portal for further details, noting that all subsequent stages of the exercise would be conducted digitally to enhance efficiency and accountability.

“Please note, pre-qualified applicants are mandated to lease data only from the two data sources (as applicable) and upload evidence of payment as a prerequisite to the submission of bids,” the notice concluded.

The 2025 oil licensing round was formally launched in December 2025 following approval by President Bola Tinubu as part of efforts to attract fresh investment into the country’s upstream petroleum sector.

The bid round offers 50 oil and gas blocks located across several sedimentary basins, including the Niger Delta, Anambra, Bida, Benue Trough, and Chad basins, with the objective of boosting exploration activity, increasing reserves, and supporting long-term crude production growth.

As of now, the process has completed the pre-qualification stage, with the submission window closing on February 27, 2026, after which qualified companies are expected to proceed to the technical and commercial bidding phase, where bids will be evaluated before final awards are announced.

The latest development indicates that the 2025 round is progressing on schedule, with the next phase expected to culminate in the submission of technical and commercial bids, followed by evaluation and eventual award of oil blocks.

For prospective investors, the immediate task is clear: secure the required data, meet compliance conditions, and prepare competitive bids in what is shaping up to be one of Nigeria’s most closely watched licensing exercises in recent years.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery partnered with major fuel marketers to safeguard nationwide supply and reduce risks associated with a single-source system, the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria has said.

Speaking during a MEMAN webinar on Tuesday, the association’s Chairman, Hubb Stokman, said the supply arrangement with marketers was designed to improve efficiency and address concerns around concentration risk in the downstream sector.

He noted that while Nigeria now has a large refinery capable of meeting most of its domestic needs, relying heavily on a single facility comes with inherent risks.

“I think that Nigeria is actually very blessed with having a refinery. Sometimes you forget, in a situation like this with the crisis in the Middle East, that having a refinery that can produce a large part, if not almost everything, that the country needs is a huge benefit,” he said, adding that Nigeria should count its blessings in that regard.

Stokman, however, added that the size and dominance of the refinery also necessitated deliberate efforts to spread supply channels.

“Now, one of the things is, of course, when you get a huge, mega refinery that can produce almost anything and everything that the country needs, it’s all concentrated in one place.

“So actually, this supply arrangement and selling to MEMAN members and other major marketers was mainly based also on making sure to address a little bit the risk of having one single big place to get all the products from, and also make it operationally efficient.”

He explained that the arrangement was also carried out in consultation with regulators to ensure it aligns with market realities and enhances distribution efficiency. “And I think they did that by talking also to the regulator to make sure what makes sense,” he added.

Stokman said the current global oil market volatility, triggered by the Middle East crisis, had reinforced the need for flexibility in supply arrangements. He said the crisis in the Middle East happened a couple of days after the purchase arrangement was communicated.

“And when the crisis happened, of course, everybody’s prices changed. It’s all a bit up in the air because it’s moving so fast. Don’t forget, the crisis in the Middle East is only two weeks old, and it happened basically a couple of days after this arrangement was communicated,” he said.

He noted that despite the volatility, the Nigerian market has so far responded positively because the arrangement was working. However, he warned that Nigeria needs to remain agile in a volatile environment in order not to be bogged down.

“So, I think so far, it’s been working. But I think we need to realise that in these kinds of fast-volatility environments, you need to remain agile.”

He warned against rigid approaches to market management, stressing the need for continuous adjustment in response to global developments. “I think that’s always the key thing. Don’t get bogged down in one way sometimes. But I must say, I’m very impressed with how the refinery is dealing with it and also the market,” Stokman added.

The MEMAN chairman further stated that Nigeria’s fuel pricing continues to reflect international market trends, as the deregulated system tracks global benchmarks. “The prices in Nigeria have followed, let’s say, import parity and the international market. So in that sense, I think the market has responded very quickly,” he said.

Speaking about the suspension of import licences, he added that supply security remains strong, with the regulator maintaining a needs-based approach to imports.

“I think what the NMDPRA does at the moment is very good. It (import) is scheduled on a needs basis. And I think that’s a very good approach, looking at the market and what is needed. The NMDPRA said at the beginning of March that the country had over 30 days of stock availability of PMS, which is actually, in a situation like this, quite a good position to be in from a supply security point of view.”

On the role of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, Stokman said the company remains critical to maintaining stability as a supplier of last resort.

“NNPC remains committed to its statutory role, of course, as a supplier of last resort, making sure the stability and continuity of supply of petroleum products across the country.”

Stokman expressed confidence that with both local refining and imports functioning within the framework of the Petroleum Industry Act, Nigeria can sustain an adequate supply. He added that the Nigerian market has shown increasing discipline in responding to shocks, reflecting gradual maturity since deregulation.

“I think the market is responding very, very fast and very disciplinarily. I think both the refineries, the NMDPRA, and the market players are all very, very disciplined in the way we do it,” he added.

Also speaking, a partner at Zeta Advisory and Consulting, Joe Nwakwue, stressed that Nigeria must deliberately promote a competitive, or “contestable”, market to prevent abuse of dominance by any single supplier.

He added, “We have a single refinery, 650,000 barrels, that is operational. So that risk is there. However, through regulatory action, the risk can be mitigated.” Nwakwue said allowing imports remains critical to sustaining competition and preventing price distortions.

“And that’s where I think a contestable market is important. So in practical terms, if that refinery knows that importers will bring in product and sell at a margin, its pricing will be influenced by that. But if that refinery knows that there’s no hope of getting product from anywhere else, then of course, there’s no way to regulate its behaviour.

“I think my personal view is that at all times, the only way today that you can have a contestable market is that you continue to allow imports,” Nwakwue stated.

On pricing, he noted that Nigeria is still exposed to global oil market volatility.

“The next question is, is Nigeria immune to fair price volatility? No, we’re not. As I said, domestic pricing is still import-quality pricing. So, irrespective of what the crude-for-naira deal says, we are still benchmarking Brent, and so that means whatever happens anywhere in the world that impacts Brent will be transmitted directly to the domestic market,” the expert stated.

He said there was a need to explore buffers within policies such as the naira-for-crude arrangement to reduce exposure to international price swings.

“I think that using the mechanism of the naira-for-crude, as I said, it’s until I see the agreements; I wouldn’t know, but I think you can build in buffers there, some discounts or things that can allow you to isolate the domestic refining from the vagaries of the international crude market.”

Nwakwue also raised concerns over policy inconsistencies, saying mixed signals from regulators could undermine market confidence. “I’m not aware that we have importation challenges. I think what we’ve had are uncertainties around policy and regulations. And I think that that’s what the regulator needs to clarify. People need to be certain,” he warned.

He cautioned that rising petrol prices could hurt economic growth if not carefully managed. “I think that if fuel price goes way into the N2,000s per litre, it’s going to affect economic growth. So the government should have an interest in ensuring that Nigerians don’t have to pay N2,000 per litre,” Nwakwue noted.

He, however, advocated a targeted and temporary intervention mechanism rather than an open-ended subsidy regime. “So somebody needs to model that and know what that threshold is. And then the government needs to design something; I don’t want to call it a subsidy, but that’s what it ultimately is. It’s a temporary measure that does not allow prices to hit the roof, where they will destroy the economy,” he added.