The Nigerian Exchange Limited experienced a wave of mixed sentiments during the trading week ended 17 July 2026. A sharp decline in the industrial sector effectively offset strong gains in banking equities, reflecting a broader tug-of-war between institutional portfolio rebalancing and macroeconomic headwinds.

The benchmark NGX All-Share Index depreciated marginally by 0.14 per cent to close the week at 243,462.13 points. Conversely, total market capitalisation managed to buck the downward index trend, appreciating by 0.39 per cent to settle at N157.057tn by Friday’s close.

This divergence between the ASI and market capitalisation was primarily attributed to large-scale primary market listings and capital restructuring during the week, which added weight to the total market value despite price depreciation among major equities.

A closer look at the sectoral performance revealed that a steep 6.26 per cent decline in the NGX Industrial Goods Index acted as the primary anchor dragging down the broader market index. The industrial sector continues to face severe pressure from elevated energy costs, persistent foreign exchange illiquidity affecting raw material imports, and the high-interest-rate environment, which has slowed down major real estate and infrastructure projects nationwide.

This downward pressure was further compounded by losses in the NGX Main Board Index, which fell 1.54 per cent, alongside minor pullbacks in the Consumer Goods and Oil & Gas indices. Consumer goods companies, in particular, remain squeezed by weakened disposable income among Nigerian households, forcing investors to adopt a cautious stance.

On the flip side, the banking sector put up a resilient fight against the bears. The NGX Banking Index climbed 9.30 per cent, preventing a more severe market downturn. This rally was largely driven by sustained investor appetite following strong half-year corporate earnings releases and speculative positioning around the Central Bank of Nigeria’s ongoing banking recapitalisation exercise, which has favoured tier-one institutions.

Trading volumes decline

Activity on the trading floor slowed down significantly compared with the previous week’s performance, indicating a temporary shift towards a ‘wait-and-see’ approach by institutional investors ahead of macroeconomic data releases.

Investors traded a total turnover of 2.819bn shares worth N182.499bn in 226,729 deals, representing a noticeable drop from the 3.648bn shares valued at N220.568bn that exchanged hands in the preceding week.

As has become the norm on the local bourse, the Financial Services Industry single-handedly drove the market’s liquidity, accounting for over 71 per cent of the total equity turnover volume. The sector’s dominance underscores its status as the most liquid and actively traded segment of the NGX, especially during periods of broader economic uncertainty.

Divergent price action

Market sentiment measured by price changes leaned slightly towards the bears, as the number of advancing equities dropped from 60 in the previous week to 44, signalling a tightening of market breadth.

First HoldCo Plc emerged as the standout performer of the week, leading the gainers with an impressive 38.66 per cent price surge to close at N95.95 per share. Analysts attributed this rally to robust institutional buying and positive market sentiment surrounding its strategic expansion plans.

BUA Cement Plc suffered the worst hit on the decliners’ table, shedding 18.99 per cent of its value to close at N275.60 per share. The heavy sell-off in BUA Cement heavily influenced the slump in the Industrial Goods index, as investors reacted to profit-taking and broader concerns regarding input cost inflation within the manufacturing sector.

Capital base expansion

The week also featured a significant corporate action as Sterling Financial Holdings Company Plc successfully expanded its presence on the local bourse, highlighting the ongoing capital raising trend in the financial sector.

The Exchange listed an additional 13.812bn ordinary shares arising from the company’s recent public subscription offer at N7.00 per share.

This supplementary listing officially boosted the total issued and fully paid-up shares of the financial holding company from 52.117bn to 65.929bn units.

This capital injection not only strengthens Sterling HoldCo’s balance sheet to absorb potential macroeconomic shocks but also directly contributed to the appreciation of the total NGX market capitalisation, despite the marginal drop in the All-Share Index.

Inflation moderates further

The cautious stance by investors came as Nigeria’s headline inflation slowed marginally for the first time in four months, as easing core inflation offset persistent food price pressures.

In tandem with the cooling inflation data, domestic crude oil production rose to a 74-month high, exceeding Nigeria’s OPEC quota for the second consecutive month.

Simultaneously, the CBN introduced the FX BDC Purchase Tracker to improve transparency and efficiency in the retail foreign exchange market. The centralised digital platform requires licensed Bureau De Change operators to submit foreign exchange transactions in real time.

The initiative builds on the February 2026 policy that restored BDCs’ access to the official FX market through weekly allocations of up to USD150,000 from Authorised Dealer Banks. It replaces the previously manual, delay-prone reporting framework that fostered pricing distortions, speculative hoarding, and ultimately prompted the suspension of official Dollar sales to BDCs.

The platform reinforces the apex bank’s commitment to improving transparency and accountability in the retail FX market. By enabling transaction-level monitoring, the CBN aims to eliminate practices such as round-tripping and currency diversion, while ensuring official FX allocations are deployed solely to meet legitimate retail demand. The system also provides regulators with better visibility into demand dynamics, utilisation rates, and compliance across the BDC segment.

Reacting to the development, analysts at Meristem Securities Limited stated, “We expect the FX BDC Purchase Tracker to strengthen price discovery and improve transparency within the retail foreign exchange market, thereby reducing opportunities for speculative buying and arbitrage opportunities, and gradually compressing the spread between the official and parallel market exchange rates.

“The effectiveness, however, will depend on the CBN’s consistency in enforcing compliance and penalising reporting violations. In the near term, the success of the framework will hinge on its ability to facilitate seamless adoption across dealer banks and BDCs while improving retail FX liquidity, strengthening price discovery, and fostering a more efficient and orderly foreign exchange market.”

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission on Tuesday declared 31 companies as winners of 37 oil and gas blocks under the 2025 Licensing Round, despite what the commission described as sustained threats and pressure mounted against members of its evaluation team before the conclusion of the exercise.

The successful conclusion of the commercial bid conference marked the end of an eight-month licensing process, with the winning firms now required to pay their signature bonuses and satisfy other post-award conditions within 90 days or risk forfeiting the assets to reserve bidders.

Speaking after the commercial bid conference in Abuja, the Commission Chief Executive of the NUPRC, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, disclosed that officials involved in evaluating the bids faced repeated intimidation throughout the process but refused to compromise the integrity of the exercise.

She said the threats persisted until the eve of the commercial bid opening. Eyesan said, “It has been a journey… If you have been told anything contrary to the fact that this process was going to be credible and transparent, do not believe it.”

Commending members of the evaluation committee, she added, “The evaluators have worked tirelessly since June 12. They have been inundated with calls and with threats, serious threats, but they stood their ground. Up until yesterday, we were still threatened, but we stood our ground to say that the times have changed. Nigeria is really open for business.”

She said President Bola Tinubu had mandated the commission to ensure a credible process and thanked the evaluators and observers from the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative for supporting the exercise.

The commission announced that 31 companies emerged successful after 143 companies submitted about 200 bids for 37 oil and gas blocks out of the 50 assets offered during the licensing round.

The successful companies include SSonic Petroleum Limited, CFP Pipeline and Flowlines, Dutchford E&P Limited, Attabanson Global Company Limited, Rosem Energy Limited, Pivot-GIS Limited, Network E&P, Asharami, LexOil, BVOF, Gupsco Energy Limited, Saratoga, Volante, Concept-Reel Petroleum Services Limited, Clinton Oil Field, Nuway Oaklane Limited, Ramec Italia.

Others are Blueridge E&P, Up Energies Limited, AYM Shafa, Blackrock Holdings Limited, Funtay Integrated Business Limited, Riparian Development and Production Limited, Nikstallis, Stardeep Petroleum, Dakoda & U Limited, Southborne Oil and Gas Limited, Lanaka Petroleum, Highban Resources Limited and Eyre Energy Limited.

The commission explained that the successful companies had emerged only as preferred bidders and would receive Petroleum Prospecting Licences after meeting all statutory conditions under the Petroleum Industry Act.

Eyesan urged the winners to immediately commence the post-award process. She said, “These firms will only be presented final awards after the payment of the appropriate signature bonus and the approval of the Minister of Petroleum Resources in line with the Petroleum Industry Act, 2021.”

She warned that failure to fulfil the post-award conditions within 90 days would invalidate the awards, allowing the commission to invite reserve bidders.

The commission explained that the commercial bid process was designed to eliminate human interference through an automated weighted scoring system. Officials said technical evaluations had been completed before the commercial bids were opened publicly, while no one, including members of the evaluation team, had prior access to the commercial bids.

“The weighted score is 40 per cent. All these things are automated. The computer calculates everything. Nobody is using a pen to write any figures. This demonstrates the transparent, efficient and robust process built into this licensing round,” the commission stated.

Meanwhile, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, said the Petroleum Industry Act had ended the discretionary allocation of oil blocks in Nigeria. “The PIA, unfortunately for some people, has prevented discretionary allocation of oil blocks,” he said jokingly.

He stressed that the law guarantees fairness and credibility, assuring investors that no one knows the content of commercial bids before they are officially opened. Lokpobiri also warned successful bidders against treating licences as speculative assets.

“In the past, I have seen people go round conferences across the world carrying licences and looking for partners who never came. Those days must be over. The licences issued today must translate into actual field development and production,” he said.

Also speaking, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, said the licensing round reflected the Federal Government’s commitment to transparency, competitiveness and credibility.

“The Federal Government remains firmly committed to creating an enabling environment that attracts investment, accelerates exploration and production, and unlocks the full value of Nigeria’s hydrocarbon resources,” Ekpo said.

Organised Private Sector leaders and economists have projected that the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee will most likely retain the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.5 per cent when it meets on Monday and Tuesday, citing heightened geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on inflation.

The stakeholders noted that Nigerian businesses would welcome a rate cut to ease borrowing costs and support investment, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which has struggled under high interest rates.

Their position comes despite a recent CBN Inflation Expectations Survey showing that 61.1 per cent of Nigerians want interest rates reduced ahead of the MPC meeting.

In telephone interviews with The PUNCH, economists and business leaders, including the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said prevailing global uncertainties, particularly the renewed conflict involving the United States and Iran, made it too early for the apex bank to begin further monetary easing.

“What I expect is a hold because it is possibly too soon to relax the MPR because of the current geopolitical issues. We have seen a very dramatic escalation, and this has implications for major macroeconomic indicators, particularly the general price level. Energy prices feed strongly into inflationary pressures, and crude oil prices have risen above $84. The inflation outlook is looking very disturbing,” Yusuf said.

He added, “It is unlikely there will be a rate cut. It is also not likely that there will be a further increase because the last inflation figure showed only a marginal deceleration. Although I don’t mind a rate cut because interest rates are too high, given the prevailing global conditions, especially the Middle East conflict, people hoping for a rate cut should exercise more patience.”

The President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Leye Kupoluyi, said businesses would benefit significantly from lower borrowing costs, noting that high interest rates remained a major component of the cost of doing business.

“Everyone wants a reduced interest rate. Interest rate is a major part of the cost of doing business because everybody needs funds for their business. If the interest rate is high, the cost of business will be very high. The lower the interest rate, the better. It will allow businesses to plan and borrow money instead of relying on short-term loans that ultimately increase costs for consumers,” Kupoluyi said.

He, however, urged caution ahead of the MPC decision, saying, “Let’s see what they come up with. We have to look at it both ways. But definitely, for interest rates to come down, it is for the benefit of industry, businesses, and ultimately the customer.”

A Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Uyo, Prof Akpan Ekpo, also predicted that the committee would likely maintain the current rate because of the uncertainty created by the US-Iran conflict.

“Many people would like a reduced interest rate because the MPR is the anchor rate for bank lending. But my worries are the US-Iran war. We don’t know when it is going to end. For that reason, I suspect they might keep the rate the same for a while,” Ekpo said.

He warned that the conflict could worsen inflationary pressures. “If I were with the MPC, I would hold the rate the way it is for now and wait for the next meeting. With the Iran-US war, inflation may go up. When inflation goes up, the MPC would be inclined to increase rates to contain inflation. The government should instead focus on the manufacturing sector so that we can create jobs,” he added.

The Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, Dr Ayo Teriba, said while businesses and households desired lower interest rates, the MPC would likely base its decision on data unavailable to the public.

“Every reasonable person wants to see lower interest rates. We have seen stable exchange rates, and inflation has hovered around 15 per cent for six months. But the committee will determine whether this is the right time to ease policy. I don’t have access to the information they have, so I will wait for them to explain whatever decision they take,” Teriba said.

He noted that the conflict in the Middle East had not significantly altered Nigeria’s inflation trend so far but cautioned against pre-empting the committee’s decision. “I’d like to see the monetary policy rate and the CRR come down, but I accept my limitation that I don’t have access to the information available to the MPC. I will wait to be informed by them,” Teriba said.

Businesses have repeatedly argued that high borrowing costs have constrained investment, especially in the manufacturing sector, where operators say access to affordable long-term credit remains critical for expansion, job creation and increased production.

Universal Insurance Plc has paid a total of N1.35bn in insurance claims during the second quarter (Q2) of 2026, stressing its commitment to customer satisfaction and the timely settlement of genuine claims.

The claims were paid across a broad range of the company’s insurance products. The firm said its payout highlights continued focus on building trust through prompt claims settlement.

The beneficiaries cut across several business segments, including agriculture, aviation, bond, engineering, fire, general accident, marine, motor, oil and gas, and special risk insurance.

Commenting on the development, the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Universal Insurance Plc, Dr. Jeff Duru, said the claims payment demonstrates the company’s strong financial position, efficient operations, and unwavering customer-first approach.

According to him, insurance thrives on trust, and one of the clearest ways to sustain that trust is by paying valid claims without unnecessary delays.

“At Universal Insurance Plc, our customers remain at the heart of everything we do. Insurance is built on trust, and nothing demonstrates that trust more than our ability to honour genuine claims promptly. The payment of over N1.35bn in claims within the second quarter of year 2026 is a clear testament to our unwavering commitment to standing by our policyholders in their moments of need,” he said.

Duru stressed that prompt claims settlement remains a key pillar of the company’s strategy as it seeks to strengthen confidence in the insurance industry while providing quality service to individuals, businesses, and corporate organisations.

He noted that every genuine claim received by the insurer is handled with professionalism, transparency, and urgency to enable customers to recover quickly from unexpected losses and resume their businesses and daily activities with minimal disruption.

As part of its growth strategy, Universal Insurance Plc said it will continue to expand its market footprint by introducing innovative insurance products, deploying technology to improve service delivery, and upholding high standards of corporate governance and operational excellence.

The company also urged existing and prospective customers to continue trusting its insurance offerings, assuring them of its commitment to protecting lives, businesses, and investments through dependable insurance solutions backed by prompt claims settlement.