Analysts have highlighted stalled budgetary progress and pre-election politicking as some of the top risks to the upward review in the growth projections for Nigeria in 2026, as done by the International Monetary Fund in the past week.

The PUNCH reported that the International Monetary Fund projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.4 per cent in 2026 in the January 2026 edition of its biannual World Economic Outlook. According to its latest report, the IMF hinged growth across sub-Saharan Africa on Nigeria, as the sub-region is expected to strengthen to 4.6 per cent in 2026 and 2027.

“Growth is also expected to accelerate in sub-Saharan Africa, from 4.4 per cent in 2025 to 4.6 per cent in 2026 and 2027, supported by macroeconomic stabilisation and reform efforts in key economies,” the report partly read.

The IMF’s 2026 revised growth projection for Nigeria of 4.4 per cent broadly aligns with Afrinvest’s estimate of 4.3 per cent as captured in its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook Report.

The projections by Afrinvest were predicated on what it considered to be ongoing strategic private-sector investments in telecommunications (5G network investments by MTN Nigeria and Airtel Africa), oil & gas (Dangote refinery expansion and Tony Elumelu’s acquisition of a majority stake in SEPLAT), agriculture (KONIG Agriculture Ltd’s $42.0m mid-term investment in Ondo State), and finance & insurance (sector-wide recapitalisation) alongside carry-trade inflow prospects (with Nigeria’s elevated yields expected to attract high-yield-seeking foreign portfolio investors from Advanced Economies), which will be pivotal to Nigeria’s economic narrative in 2026.

EnterpriseNGR, a member-led professional policy and advocacy group, also projected a 4.49 per cent growth, which it said reflects a broad-based expansion across services, agriculture, trade, and telecommunications.

Highlighting the risks to the upward review, Afrinvest, in its weekly market research, said, “We are concerned that poor management of global geopolitical alignments, heightened pre-election politicking, and stalled budgetary progress (with the proposed N58.2tn 2026 budget yet to be ratified and passed) could materially undermine the growth outlook, given other subsisting structural constraints such as insecurity and weak infrastructure.

“The projected subdued global trade outlook for 2026 (with volume growth weakening to 2.6 per cent from 4.1 per cent in 2025) could further hurt Nigeria’s macroeconomic prospects, given that net receipts from crude oil, which account for about 85.0 per cent of total exports, are expected to contribute roughly 35.6 per cent of the FG’s targeted N34.3tn in budgeted revenue.

“Overall, we emphasise that effective fiscal management, de-escalation of the domestic political environment, and the rollout of people-centric policies with the potential to drive sustainable and inclusive growth will be paramount for Nigeria to navigate evolving global and domestic risks in the immediate and near term.”

The PUNCH reports that President Bola Tinubu presented a 2026 Appropriation Bill of N58.18tn to the National Assembly, and the budget has yet to be passed into law. Expected revenue stood at N34.33tn, capital expenditure is estimated at N26.08tn, while recurrent non-debt expenditure stands at N15.25tn. Debt servicing is projected at N15.52tn, with a budget deficit of N23.85tn.

EnterpriseNGR also holds a positive view of the oil & gas sector, saying, “The oil sector is also anticipated to make modest gains with improved security and operational stability. This assumes continuity of recent reforms in fiscal management, foreign exchange liberalisation, and infrastructure investment. Nigeria’s crude oil production is expected to average 1.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Brent crude prices are projected to remain in the $61 per barrel range, with Nigerian Bonny Light crude typically trading at a slight premium due to its high quality. This balances production capacity, security considerations, and global market trends, while also factoring in the impact of domestic refining and planned production expansion.

“Nigeria’s oil sector is set for steadier performance in 2026, aided by domestic refining expansion and stable prices.”

The Nigeria Customs Service recorded one of its strongest performances in recent history in 2025, generating N7.281tn in revenue, surpassing its annual target and intensifying enforcement against illicit trade, even as the agency warned that Nigeria loses about N3tn annually to port inefficiencies and prolonged cargo dwell times.

The Comptroller-General of Customs, Bashir Adewale Adeniyi, disclosed this on Monday in Abuja while delivering an address at the 2026 International Customs Day celebration, themed “Customs Protecting Society Through Vigilance and Commitment,” alongside the official launch of the Time Release Study.

Adeniyi said the revenue outturn exceeded the Service’s approved target of N6.584 trillion by N697bn, representing a positive variance of over 10 per cent, and a 19 per cent year-on-year growth compared to the N6.1tn collected in 2024.

He attributed the result to tighter controls and new digital systems deployed at the country’s bor

“Ladies and gentlemen, even as we protect society and reform procedures, we must also sustain the financial health of the state,” he said. “I am pleased to report that in 2025, the Nigeria Customs Service collected a total of N7.281tn, exceeding our target with a positive variance of N697bn, representing a growth of over 10 per cent against target. When compared to our 2024 collections, total revenue rose from N6.1tn to N7.28tn, an increase of approximately N1.18tn, or about 19 per cent year-on-year.”

Beyond revenue, Adeniyi said the Service intensified its protective role, recording over 2,500 seizures nationwide with an aggregate value exceeding N59bn, covering narcotics, counterfeit pharmaceuticals, wildlife products, arms and ammunition, petroleum products, vehicles and substandard consumer goods.

“True protection is broader and far more complex. It involves intercepting narcotics that would devastate young lives; blocking counterfeit medicines that would harm patients; seizing hazardous environmental materials; preventing arms from reaching criminal networks; and ensuring that the products entering our country are safe for consumption. In many of these cases, the public may never see the intervention, but they would certainly have felt the consequences had we failed to act,” he said.

The Customs boss cited major interceptions across ports, airports and land borders, including the discovery of 16 containers of prohibited goods worth over N10bn at Apapa Port and the seizure of over 1,600 trafficked exotic birds at Nigerian airports.

He noted that despite these successes, inefficiencies at the ports continue to cost the nation dearly. “The Time Release Study shows clearly that our challenge is not that we cannot move goods fast; it is that goods are not allowed to move fast,” he said. “We recorded cases where just eight declarations accounted for delays ranging between 46 and 84 days, and one clearance process stretched to an idle time of 118 days. This is not acceptable.”

The TRS, conducted at Tincan Island Port, covered over 600 declarations and represents the most comprehensive measurement of Nigeria’s cargo clearance process in recent history. Adeniyi stressed that Customs alone cannot fix the system. “Effective trade facilitation requires terminal operators, shipping lines, partner government agencies, truckers, brokers, banks and port authorities to work in a synchronised ecosystem rather than parallel silos,” he said.

He also highlighted the Service’s forward strategy to deepen intelligence-led, technology-driven enforcement, institutionalise procedural reforms to reduce clearance times, and strengthen collaboration with stakeholders and international partners.

Also speaking at the event, the Chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Customs and Excise, Leke Abejide, called for the full integration of the Nigeria Customs Service into the nation’s security architecture. He lamented that, despite Customs’ strategic frontline role at the borders, the agency is often excluded from high-level security deliberations.

“When I saw this program, what came to my mind was what was read by the Secretary General of the World Customs Organisation. As he said, even with our prominent position at the border, the indispensable contribution customs make to the security and welfare of societies worldwide is not commonly understood. So customs need to be part of the security architecture,” Abejide said.

He added that security efforts should be preventive rather than reactive, emphasising that excluding Customs weakens the country’s ability to stop threats before they enter Nigeria.

Abejide also criticised bureaucratic delays affecting critical imports such as pharmaceuticals and agricultural machinery, saying that inefficiencies in ministries and agencies now take longer than the actual shipping time from Asia to Nigeria.

“The great losers are the stakeholders, licensed customs agents, the importers, and the Federal Government of Nigeria,” he said. He added that the House Committee on Customs and Excise plans to engage key ministers to address the bottlenecks, which could significantly boost government revenue.

“The time it takes to get a support letter from the ministry, the time it takes the IDEC office to process the document, and the time it takes the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to communicate with the Ministry of Finance, when you add everything together, it is double the time it takes cargo to come from China to Nigeria,” Abejide explained.

“So when we resume, we will invite the Minister of Finance and the Minister of Trade and Investment, so that we can look at how to fast-track this process. This trillion you are talking about is child’s play. If we can control this, we can bring more money into the Federal Government’s account.”

He reaffirmed the National Assembly’s support for the Nigeria Customs Service, noting that improved welfare and operational efficiency would translate into better performance.

“Everybody knows that I am part of Customs. Anything Customs wants that will improve their welfare and their operations, I am always in support. For them to organise this programme means they want to perform better, and as lawmakers, we should do everything possible to support them to succeed.”

The International Customs Day, marked annually on January 26, recognises the role of customs administrations worldwide in border security, trade facilitation, and the protection of society from illicit and harmful goods.

Barely a week after the abduction of 177 church worshippers in the Kajuru Local Government Area of Kaduna State, bandits have again struck in the area, abducting six residents of Unguwar Barkonu in Maraban Kajuru.

The latest attack occurred in the early hours of Sunday in Kufana Ward, even as the Christian Association of Nigeria held special prayers for the safe return of the previously abducted worshippers.

A resident of the community, Steven Kefas, said the armed men invaded the area around 1 am, breaking into several houses and abducting six residents.

“Bandits stormed our community at about 1 am, broke into houses and forcefully took six people away to an unknown destination,” Kefas said.

Expressing frustration over the location of the attack, he added, “This incident didn’t occur in a remote village with no access to a road.

It happened right at the heart of Kajuru, in Kudana, where people expect some level of security presence.”

Kefas further lamented the absence of a rapid security response.

“As of the time of filing this report, there was no response from the police or other security agencies. The community was left on its own,” he said.

Confirming the incident, the Chairman of CAN in Kajuru Local Government Area, the Rev. Enoch Kaura, said the attack took place around 11 pm on Saturday when bandits invaded the community.

“They surrounded the entire area and created fear among residents,” Kaura said. “But when neighbours raised the alarm, and people started coming out of their houses, the attackers fled, making away with six residents.”

Kaura described the recurring attacks as deeply troubling, especially coming so soon after the abduction of church worshippers.

“It is painful that while families are still crying and praying for the return of the 177 abducted worshippers, bandits have struck again. This has created fear and anxiety in the entire Kajuru axis,” he said.

Efforts to obtain official reaction from the Kaduna State Police Command were unsuccessful.

The Police Public Relations Officer, DSP Mansir Hassan, could not be reached as his telephone line indicated ‘not reachable’, while a text message sent to him had not been responded to as of the time of filing this report.

Meanwhile, a special prayer session for the safe return of the 177 abducted worshippers was held on Sunday at Tawaliu Baptist Church in Maraban Kajuru.

The prayer gathering attracted Christian leaders from across Kaduna State and parts of northern Nigeria.

Families of the abducted worshippers, some of whom were visibly emotional, attended the service as they continued to wait anxiously for news of their loved ones. Church leaders used the occasion to call on government and security agencies to intensify efforts to secure the release of all abducted persons and restore peace to the area.

The Rural Electrification Agency and Lotus Bank have moved to scale up renewable energy financing in Nigeria with plans to establish a dedicated funding facility under the Distributed Access through Renewable Energy Scale-up programme.

In a statement on Sunday, the REA said the development followed a high-level meeting between both institutions recently, marking a shift from project-by-project financing to a structured, large-scale financial framework aimed at accelerating energy access nationwide.

Speaking during the engagement, the Managing Director of the REA, Abba Aliyu, urged Lotus Bank to adopt a bold and deliberate approach by setting a clear global funding target for the proposed facility. He stressed that Nigeria’s energy transition would only achieve meaningful impact if financing moved beyond pilot projects to support rapid developer scale-up.

Aliyu said the new facility must be backed by strong internal standards and a design that enables renewable energy developers to expand operations quickly across underserved and unserved communities.

“That level of intentionality is exactly what the sector needs if we are serious about moving from pilots to impact at scale,” he stated.

Lotus Bank, which has already supported several DARES-linked projects, is expected under the new arrangement to institutionalise its commitment by creating a standalone financing window dedicated to renewable energy deployment.

The partnership reflects a growing shift among Nigerian financial institutions, which are increasingly recognising renewable energy not merely as a social intervention but as a commercially viable and bankable sector.

The statement added that both organisations are currently working towards the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding to formalise the collaboration. The MoU is expected to unlock structured capital capable of significantly accelerating the rollout of clean energy solutions across rural and peri-urban areas.

The REA expressed optimism that the initiative would serve as a blueprint for other commercial banks, helping to mobilise private-sector investment and close Nigeria’s persistent energy access gap through sustainable financing models.

“Both organisations are now working toward the signing of a formal Memorandum of Understanding to institutionalise the partnership. This agreement is expected to provide the structured capital necessary to accelerate the deployment of clean energy solutions to underserved and unserved communities nationwide.

“The REA remains optimistic that this collaboration will serve as a model for other commercial banks, building the necessary momentum to bridge Nigeria’s energy deficit through sustainable, private-sector-led investment,” the statement concluded.

The Federal Government has signed the concession agreement for the Akanu Ibiam International Airport, Enugu, marking a key step in its plan to modernise aviation infrastructure through public-private partnerships.

The agreement was announced through a statement signed on Friday by the Ministry of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo. The statement noted that officials from Enugu State, the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria, and the concessionaire, Aero Alliance, were present during the signing.

Keyamo said the agreement concluded a long and transparent process that began several years ago. “Today is the end of a very long and tedious process regarding the concession of the Enugu Airport. The process culminated on the 31st of July, 2025, when the Federal Executive Council approved the proposal to concession the Enugu Airport, subject, of course, to contract,” the minister said.

He explained that following the Federal Executive Council’s approval, the ministry, FAAN, and Aero Alliance held extensive negotiations, including consultations with aviation unions, to protect workers’ interests.

“We did these agreements with the rights and privileges of workers uppermost in our minds. Let me say today that we have fully respected and preserved the rights of aviation workers. They have not been retrenched, their terms and conditions of employment have not changed in any way, and they remain workers of the Federal Government and FAAN,” he said.

Keyamo stressed that job security formed a central part of the concession framework. “The workers have not been short-changed in any way at all. Their jobs are safe and protected. Having taken care of the rights of workers, we then addressed other critical issues and virtually covered all areas before the signing of this agreement,” he added.

The minister noted that while the main concession agreement had been concluded, some operational matters would still be finalised. “There are two little issues after signing, in terms of operationalising the agreement, regarding security fees and the financial model of the airport. These will be resolved in the next few weeks. But as far as the main concession is concerned, we have agreed to concession the Enugu Airport to Aero Alliance today,” he said.

He described the signing as a historic milestone that would reposition the Enugu airport for improved efficiency, better service delivery, and enhanced passenger experience.

The concession of the Akanu Ibiam International Airport is part of the Federal Government’s wider aviation reform programme aimed at attracting private investment, improving infrastructure, boosting regional connectivity, and strengthening Nigeria’s competitiveness in the aviation sector.

In early 2025, the Federal Ministry of Aviation clarified that plans to concession Enugu and other airports, including Lagos and Port Harcourt, were still under review and that no fixed terms had been agreed.

The ministry said proposals from prospective concessionaires, with varying durations and financial models, were being evaluated by the Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission before final approval by the Federal Executive Council.

A concession is a form of public-private partnership in which a private entity operates, maintains and upgrades airport facilities for a set period while ownership remains with the government. The aim is to attract private capital and expertise to improve infrastructure and service delivery.

Digital payments in Nigeria have recorded a 276 per cent increase in transaction volume over the past five years, underscoring rapid adoption of electronic channels, even as cash continues to play a critical role in the economy, the Central Bank of Nigeria has said.

This was disclosed at the Committee on Bank Operations Annual Conference on Friday, where the Governor, Mr Olayemi Cardoso, delivered the keynote address through his Special Adviser, Fatai Kareem.

In his address, the CBN governor highlighted the need for a balanced payment ecosystem in which digital innovation and physical cash coexist rather than compete.

According to the data presented during the keynote, the value of digital payment transactions also grew by 581 per cent over five years. The figures, drawn from industry payment infrastructure, reflect increasing consumer confidence, policy reforms, and technological innovation within Nigeria’s financial system.

Despite this growth, the CBN emphasised that cash usage has not declined. Currency in circulation rose from about N2.4tn in 2020 to approximately N5.1tn in 2025, while total currency in circulation increased by 4.6 per cent year-on-year as of December 2025.

He said, “Nigeria’s payment ecosystem has evolved significantly over the past decade. While policy remains somewhat cash-oriented, experience shows that cash continues to play a critical role, particularly in informal markets, rural communities, and among vulnerable populations.

“At the same time, electronic payments enhance transparency, efficiency, and inclusion. When properly governed, electronic channels complement cash, reduce pressure on physical currency management, and provide scalable alternatives during peak demand. The objective is balance: maintaining confidence in cash while accelerating reliable electronic payment adoption.

“Cash availability is not solely a function of currency issuance. It depends on logistics, infrastructure, incentives, and coordination among financial institutions. Failures in access—ATM outages, illiquidity—undermine confidence in the system. Banks play a critical role in shaping the future of cash.

“They must invest in technology, collaborate with regulators, improve cash deposit mobilisation, strengthen fraud prevention, and enhance digital platforms. The Central Bank remains fully committed to building a resilient, inclusive payment system by strengthening infrastructure, modernising currency management, and supporting responsible innovation.”

The governor said electronic and digital payment channels, when properly designed and governed, complement cash by easing pressure on physical currency management, improving efficiency, and providing alternatives during periods of operational stress.

He added that the strategic challenge for Nigeria is not choosing between cash and digital payments, but ensuring citizens can always access cash when needed while building trust in electronic channels for everyday transactions.

“In conclusion, progress is not measured by how quickly we adopt technology, but by how effectively systems improve lives, reduce friction, and expand productivity. The strategic challenge is not choosing between cash and digital payments, but ensuring citizens can access cash when needed while building trust in electronic channels.

“Achieving this balance requires coherent policy, strong oversight, and close industry coordination. When aligned, the payment system supports economic activity, financial inclusion, and public trust,” he asserted.

In his welcome address, the First Vice Chairman of CHBO, Tolulope Ogundipe, who represented the Chairman, CHBO, Abraham Aziegbe, said Nigeria’s financial system is at a defining crossroads, shaped by the rapid rise of digital innovation on one hand and the enduring relevance of physical cash on the other.

He said, “We stand at a defining crossroads. On one side, the breathtaking rise of digital innovation is reshaping financial services at an unprecedented pace. On the other hand, the enduring presence of physical currency continues to ramp up trust, inclusion, and stability in our economy.

“Today, our mission is clear: to explore how cash and digital can co-exist, not as rivals, but as complementary forces that shape Nigeria’s financial future. The story of cash versus digital in Nigeria is layered and complex. Yes, digital payments are surging, reflecting consumer confidence and our collective ingenuity. Yet, cash remains deeply woven into the fabric of everyday life. For millions, especially in rural communities, cash is not just convenient; it is essential.

“Recent figures from the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System highlight this dual reality. Electronic transactions have soared over the past decade, yet outages and infrastructure challenges have triggered spikes in cash usage. In fact, the Central Bank of Nigeria reported that ATM withdrawals reached N36.34tn in just the first half of 2025, a staggering leap from N12.21tn during the same period in 2024. This is not a relic of the past; it is a reminder that cash remains a cornerstone of resilience, continuity, and trust. Our challenge, therefore, is not to diminish cash, but to reimagine its role.”

In his presentation, the Managing Director/Chief Executive, Bankers Warehouse Plc, warned about the high value of cash outside the banking system, describing it as a matter requiring urgent action.

He said, “There was a dislocation, there’s a trust issue. There are a few other things. There is a need to invest in infrastructure, and there’s a need to invest in power. All of those things can affect the system. The cash comes in, and it leaves the banking system.

“It is supposed to come back to the banking system every week and go out and come back—that’s where we’re talking about the velocity of funds and velocity in transactions.

“Now, what is happening is that it’s outside of the banking system, and so when it gets out, people are transacting amongst themselves outside the bank, which can affect monetary policy and impact anything that we do. It means that we cannot even tell the quantum of cash that is authentic or not outside the system. This is a problem that needs to be resolved, and we all need to solve it.”