Oil major Exxon Mobil Corp. has reported first-quarter 2026 earnings of $4.2 billion.

According to the results earnings totaled $4.9 billion excluding identified items, and $8.8 billion when also excluding unfavorable estimated timing effects.

First-quarter earnings declined from $7.7 billion in the same period of 2025. However, earnings excluding identified items and timing effects were up from $7.6 billion a year earlier.

Unfavorable estimated timing effects totaled $3.9 billion, reflecting the mismatch between the valuation of financial derivatives and the associated physical transactions, resulting in a timing difference in earnings that unwinds in subsequent periods. Identified items of $0.7 billion were attributed to losses on settled financial hedges that were not offset by the associated physical shipments due to Middle East supply disruptions.

Cash flow from operations was $8.7 billion, or $13.8 billion excluding margin postings, which primarily fluctuate with the fair value of underlying derivatives. Free cash flow totaled $2.7 billion.

Shareholder distributions reached $9.2 billion, including $4.3 billion in dividends and $4.9 billion in share repurchases, in line with plans to repurchase $20 billion of shares in 2026, assuming reasonable market conditions.

Exxon’s cash capital expenditures totaled $6.2 billion for the quarter, consistent with the company’s full-year guidance of $27-29 billion.

The Company’s Chairman and chief executive officer Darren Woods emphasized the company’s underlying performance, stating that results excluding timing effects reflect the strength of the company’s advantaged portfolio.

During the earnings call, Woods said markets have not yet fully reflected the impact of Middle East supply disruptions, as inventories and strategic reserves have temporarily offset losses. He said even if the Strait reopens, it could take 1-2 months for flows to normalize, with additional demand from inventory rebuilding likely to support prices.

He added that ExxonMobil expects most curtailed production capacity to return relatively quickly once conditions stabilize, although some damage will take longer to repair. In Qatar, two affected LNG production lines could take 3-5 years to fully restore, potentially impacting about 3% of the company’s global output.

Operationally, Exxon reported net production of 4.6 MMboe/d during the quarter, compared with 4.55 MMboe/d a year earlier and nearly 5 MMboe/d in the fourth quarter, with the sequential decline largely reflecting disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Guyana set a new quarterly oil production record of more than 900,000 b/d.

Middle East assets represent about 20 per cent of ExxonMobil’s global oil-equivalent production, but a smaller share of upstream earnings. According to a recent filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), certain assets in Qatar and the UAE in which the company holds ownership interests experienced production disruptions beginning in March.

Meantime, the Golden Pass LNG project reached a milestone at the end of March with first production from Train 1 at its Sabine Pass terminal, followed by its first LNG export cargo loading and departure in April.

Access Holdings has demonstrated significant growth as its earnings at the end of 2025 shows strong results surpassing market expectations and forecasts.

Its Profit Before Tax (PAT) crossed the ₦1 trillion mark for the first time, rising to ₦1.01 trillion, a 16.2 per cent increase compared to the previous year as contained in its audited results for the financial year ended December 31, 2025.

This which marks a significant turning point in its corporate journey as it shifts from a growth model defined by scale to one increasingly anchored on value creation, efficiency, and earnings quality.

The Group delivered a resilient performance during the year, navigating a transitional operating environment while demonstrating the strength of its franchise and the robustness of the governance structures it has built over time.

This milestone underscores the Group’s steady progression toward becoming a high-performing and resilient financial institution.

Net interest income rose to ₦1.36 trillion, while net fees and commission income recorded a particularly strong growth of 40.9 per cent to ₦585.1 billion, reflecting increasing diversification in revenue streams. Overall operating income after impairment grew by 23.9 per cent to ₦3.17 trillion. At the same time, the Group improved its cost discipline, with its cost-to-income ratio declining to 51.7 per cent from 56.7 per cent in 2024. Returns also remained solid, with return on average equity at 18.4 per cent and return on average assets at 1.6 per cent, reinforcing the quality of earnings delivered during the year.

Commenting on the results, Group Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, Innocent C. Ike, said: “Our 2025 performance reflects both the resilience of the Access franchise and the strength of the institution we have built over time. Despite a dynamic operating environment, we delivered strong earnings supported by diversified income streams, disciplined execution, and a continued focus on balance sheet optimisation.”

“We have now entered a more deliberate optimisation phase, with a stronger emphasis on returns on capital, earnings quality, and long-term value creation,” he added.

The balance sheet also recorded significant expansion, driven by strong deposit mobilisation and sustained customer confidence. Total assets increased by 24.3 per cent to ₦51.57 trillion, while customer deposits grew by 53.4 per cent to ₦34.56 trillion. Shareholders’ funds rose by 15 per cent to ₦4.33 trillion, reflecting both retained earnings and continued investor confidence in the institution. This growth highlights not only the scale of the Group’s operations but also the deepening trust of customers, counterparties, and investors.

The operating environment during the year showed signs of gradual improvement, which supported performance. Nigeria’s economic growth strengthened to about 3.9 per cent, inflation moderated from elevated 2024 levels, and foreign exchange reserves rose above $45 billion. The NGX All Share Index gained over 51 per cent during the year, reflecting renewed investor confidence and stronger capital market activity. These developments contributed to improved capital flows and a more supportive backdrop for financial institutions.

While banking remains the core earnings driver, contributing about 97 per cent of total revenue, the Group continues to make measured progress in diversifying its income base. Its investment management and insurance businesses, including Access ARM Pensions and Access Insurance Brokers, provide stable and recurring income streams, while technology-led platforms such as Oxygen X Finance and Hydrogen Payment Services are strengthening its position in the digital financial services landscape.

The Group’s strategic direction is now increasingly defined by a shift from scale to value. Having built scale across markets and segments, management is focusing more deliberately on improving returns on capital, enhancing earnings quality and deepening cost discipline. This transition reflects a clear objective to build a more valuable institution capable of delivering consistent and resilient returns over the long term.

Looking ahead, Access Holdings expects macroeconomic conditions to continue stabilising, creating opportunities for credit expansion, increased transaction volumes, and higher levels of activity across the financial system. The Group intends to maintain its focus on disciplined execution, improved capital efficiency, and sustainable growth across its diversified platform.

Ike noted: “Africa remains one of the most compelling long-term growth frontiers globally. Our role is not only to participate in that growth, but to help shape and finance it.

“At Access Holdings, we have built an institution designed to endure, anchored on strong governance, disciplined execution, and a clear strategic direction. Our focus remains on delivering consistent, high-quality, risk-adjusted returns while building a financial institution that will stand the test of time.”

Investors gained N3.26tn at the close of trading on Thursday as the Nigerian equities market extended its bullish run, driven by sustained buying interest in large-cap and consumer-linked stocks.

Market capitalisation, which represents the total value of listed shares, opened the session at N152.728tn and rose significantly to close at N155.994tn, reflecting a robust renewal of investor appetite. This upward momentum was further mirrored in the All-Share Index, which advanced from an opening of 237,205.59 to close at 242,277.81.

The day’s performance was characterised by positive market breadth, with 46 gainers emerging against 40 losers, highlighting the dominance of the bulls across several key sectors.

Leading the pack of gainers were major blue-chip companies, including CAP, FTN Cocoa, UACN, Unilever, and Seplat, all of which appreciated by the maximum daily limit of 10.00 per cent. Specifically, Seplat recorded a massive rally to close at N11,495.00, while Unilever and UACN climbed to N137.50 and N181.50, respectively.

Conversely, the market recorded some laggards led by Alex, which declined by 9.95 per cent to close at N9.50, followed by Royal Exchange and Legend Identity, which shed 9.93 per cent and 9.32 per cent, respectively.

Other stocks, such as Austin Laz and Neimeth, also featured on the losers’ chart as some investors engaged in profit-taking to moderate the general market advance.

Meanwhile, heavyweight counters like Dangote Cement, Julius Berger, and Custodian Investment remained flat, closing the session with no price change.

Investor sentiment remained broadly positive throughout the day as market participants strategically positioned themselves ahead of upcoming corporate disclosures and anticipated macroeconomic shifts.

The strong demand for select large-cap stocks suggests a high level of confidence in the market’s near-term trajectory. Financial analysts noted that the current surge in valuation is a testament to the resilience of the market, which continues to provide significant returns for investors despite selective selling in mid-cap categories.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has completed the long-anticipated River Niger crossing of the Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben gas pipeline, unlocking a key segment of the country’s gas transmission network and paving the way for increased supply to power plants and industries.

The feat, delivered by the NNPC Gas Infrastructure Company, a subsidiary of NNPC Ltd, involved drilling approximately two kilometres beneath the River Niger using advanced horizontal directional drilling technology, a method reserved for complex engineering terrains.

Announcing the development in a statement on Thursday, the Chief Corporate Communications Officer of NNPC Ltd, Andy Odeh, said the milestone effectively activates the full capacity of the 130-kilometre OB3 pipeline, which is designed to transport up to two billion standard cubic feet of gas per day.

The statement read, “The NNPC Gas Infrastructure Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of NNPC Limited, has successfully completed the River Niger Crossing of the 130-kilometre Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben Gas Pipeline, marking a major milestone in the expansion of Nigeria’s national gas transmission network.

“The successful crossing unlocks the full potential of the OB3 Pipeline, a strategic infrastructure designed to transport up to 2 billion standard cubic feet of gas per day, significantly strengthening energy availability, enhancing supply reliability, and accelerating national economic development.”

The firm noted that the completion would, in the near term, unlock over 500 million standard cubic feet of additional gas supply for the domestic market, with implications for electricity generation, manufacturing, and exports.

The Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Ltd, Bayo Ojulari, described the crossing as a turning point for Nigeria’s gas infrastructure drive.

He said, “The completion of the OB3 River Niger Crossing is a defining milestone for Nigeria’s gas infrastructure and a clear demonstration of what disciplined execution and sustained commitment to excellence can deliver.

“By successfully traversing one of the most technically challenging sections of the project, we have unlocked a critical link that will enhance gas supply reliability, deepen domestic utilisation, and support power generation and industrial growth across the country.”

Ojulari explained that the achievement was built on recent engineering successes, particularly the earlier River Niger crossing on the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano pipeline project, completed in 2025.

“This achievement is not incidental. It is the result of deliberately leveraging and upscaling our AKK engineering and execution excellence through rigorous project governance, innovative engineering solutions, adaptive problem-solving, and the unwavering commitment of our teams and PCE Nig. Limited,” he said.

He added, “The OB3 Pipeline is central to our ambition of building an integrated and resilient gas network that underpins Nigeria’s energy security and economic development. I commend everyone involved for their doggedness and for staying the course to deliver this strategic national asset.”

The NNPC boss also linked the development to the Federal Government’s broader energy targets, including plans to raise crude oil production to three million barrels per day and gas output to 12 billion standard cubic feet per day by 2030.

According to him, “The successful River Niger Crossing ensures that Nigeria’s gas-producing regions are now physically interconnected with the rest of the country, a critical requirement for achieving our long-term production and supply aspirations.”

He further acknowledged the role of the Federal Government and other stakeholders in delivering the project. “We sincerely appreciate the continued support of the Federal Government under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, whose Gas-to-Prosperity agenda and commitment to a conducive business environment have been instrumental in making this achievement possible.

“NNPC Limited could also not have achieved this feat without the trust and guidance of its Board of Directors,” he added.

Ojulari reaffirmed the company’s commitment to expanding energy access and economic growth. “At NNPC Limited, we remain fully committed to translating Nigeria’s oil and gas resources into a better standard of living for all citizens. We will continue to collaborate with our partners to deliver projects that expand energy availability, stimulate industrialisation, and improve the overall well-being of Nigerians,” he said.

He also commended host communities, project contractors, and staff of the gas infrastructure company for their persistence in overcoming technical and environmental challenges.

The OB3 pipeline is regarded as a backbone project in Nigeria’s gas master plan, linking eastern gas fields to western demand centres and further connecting to the northern corridor through the AKK pipeline.

For years, the OB3 pipeline faced delays, particularly at the River Niger crossing, widely considered the most difficult segment due to geological and environmental constraints in the Niger Delta region.

The inability to complete the crossing had limited gas flow between eastern supply hubs and western industrial markets, contributing to supply bottlenecks and underutilisation of installed power generation capacity.

After months of blackouts, President Bola Tinubu has begun a fresh restructuring of Nigeria’s power sector with the nomination of a new minister of power and the appointment of a special adviser to head a presidential task force on sector reforms.

In a move aimed at accelerating reforms in the electricity value chain, the President nominated Mr Joseph Tegbe as Minister of Power, subject to Senate confirmation, while also appointing a former power minister, Mr Lanre Babalola, as Special Adviser on Power and Chairman of the Presidential Task Force on Power Sector Reset and Restoration.

The developments were contained in separate State House press releases issued on Wednesday by the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga.

According to the presidency, Tegbe’s nomination follows the resignation of the former Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, who stepped down to pursue his governorship ambition in Oyo State.

Tegbe, another indigene of Oyo State, is described by the presidency as a fiscal and economic reform expert with more than 35 years of experience across both the public and private sectors.

He was said to have previously served as senior partner and head of advisory services at KPMG Africa, where he led assignments in fiscal policy reform, governance restructuring, institutional transformation, and investment advisory.

 

He has also worked closely with government institutions and private sector operators on regulatory frameworks and strategic reforms.

At present, he serves as Director-General and Global Liaison for the Nigeria-China Strategic Partnership, where he coordinates bilateral development cooperation between Nigeria and China, particularly in line with the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation objectives.

The presidency also noted that Tegbe has had significant engagement within the power sector, especially in areas relating to regulatory and institutional reforms involving agencies such as the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission and the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Company.

His nomination, according to the statement, is expected to strengthen ongoing efforts to stabilise the national grid, improve sector efficiency, and attract long-term investment into the electricity value chain.

“The President expects the Minister-Designate, upon confirmation, to bring his extensive expertise to bear to advance critical reforms and deliver improved outcomes for Nigerians in the power sector,” Onanuga stated.

In a separate development, Tinubu appointed Babalola as his Special Adviser on Power and Chairman of the Presidential Task Force on Power Sector Reset and Restoration.

Babalola, a former minister of power, is returning to a sector he once supervised, with the presidency describing him as bringing deep sectoral expertise and a proven understanding of the structural and operational challenges within the electricity value chain.

“Mr Babalola, a former minister for power, brings deep sectoral expertise and a proven understanding of the structural and operational challenges within the electricity value chain. His appointment underscores the President’s determination to undertake a decisive and results-driven reset of Nigeria’s power sector,” the statement said.

The presidency also announced a redesignation within the energy governance structure, stating that the Office of the Special Adviser (Energy), currently held by Olu Verheijen, has been renamed Special Adviser (Oil & Gas) in a move aimed at clarifying roles and reducing duplication of responsibilities.

“The President has also redesignated the Office of the Special Adviser (Energy) as the Special Adviser (Oil & Gas) to clarify roles and avoid duplication of functions within the energy governance framework,” Onanuga said.

According to the statement, the newly created task force will serve as a high-level delivery platform with a direct presidential mandate to drive urgent reforms across the electricity sector.

Its responsibilities include resetting the structure of the power sector, enforcing a ‘performance before expansion’ framework, reducing technical, commercial, and collection losses, and strengthening tariff discipline and cost recovery mechanisms.

The task force is also expected to improve revenue assurance, restore grid discipline, enhance market efficiency, promote productive electricity usage across key sectors, and develop electricity growth zones aimed at boosting industrial demand.

Onanuga added that it will further focus on reducing fiscal exposure to the power sector and is expected to deliver a 90-day implementation blueprint for immediate reforms.

The Airtel Africa Foundation, in partnership with Airtel Nigeria, is targeting 200 underserved young women in the Ikorodu area of Lagos State to provide industry-standard technical training at no cost.

According to a statement released by the organisation on Wednesday, the initiative will be executed through the “DigiLeap Tech Drive”, an intensive digital literacy programme designed to bridge the gender gap in the technology sector. The project is a strategic collaboration between the Airtel Africa Foundation, the ISHK Tolaram Foundation, and Co-Creation Hub, with implementation led by the SAIL Innovation Lab.

The Chairman of the Airtel Africa Foundation, Segun Ogunsanya, emphasised that the project extends beyond basic classroom instruction.

“This initiative ensures the digital revolution is truly inclusive; it isn’t merely a training session but a professional pipeline designed to transition these women directly into internships and sustainable careers,” Ogunsanya stated.

The programme is engineered to transform high-potential individuals into workforce-ready professionals by providing a blend of technical instruction, mentorship, and direct job-placement linkages. This holistic approach aims to tackle regional unemployment while increasing female representation in the global tech economy.

Highlighting the broader economic impact during the flag-off event, the Chief Executive Officer of Airtel Nigeria, Dinesh Balsingh, noted, “We believe that empowering women with digital skills is a fundamental catalyst for national economic growth. With the DigiLeap tech training, we are creating a sustainable pathway for young women in underserved communities to move from the sidelines of the digital economy into the heart of the tech workforce.”

The foundation reaffirmed its commitment to long-term societal transformation, maintaining that technology remains the most effective tool for unlocking opportunities across the continent. “When women lead in technology, entire communities thrive,” the foundation concluded.

The application portal is currently live and will remain open until 8 May 2026. Prospective trainees between the ages of 18 and 35 living in Ikorodu, Lagos, are encouraged to apply via the official portal at bit.ly/DigiLeap to secure their spot in this high-impact professional pipeline.

The pump prices of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) are nearing N1,400 per litre in many parts of the country as the United States and Iran fail to agree on a ceasefire that should lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

As the crisis in the Middle East lingers, coupled with the exit of the United Arab Emirates from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Tuesday, the prices of petrol have continued to rise.

From $105 per barrel on Monday, Brent crude jumped to $118 on Wednesday. As a result, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery jerked up its petrol gantry price from N1,200 to N1,275 per barrel.

Price data obtained from Petroleumprice.ng and confirmation from a Dangote refinery official on Wednesday revealed that the refinery raised its petrol loading price from N1,200 per litre to N1,275 per litre, while coastal supply prices climbed to N1,215 per litre.

Another source familiar with the situation disclosed that the refinery halted its pro forma invoice entry process at about 4 pm on Tuesday, effectively disrupting normal supply scheduling across its loading system. The suspension, according to the sources, led to an immediate stoppage of both petrol and diesel sales to marketers.

This is coming as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited raised the official selling prices of all 37 Nigerian crude grades for May-loading cargoes, according to a report by Oilprice.com.

The report stated that Nigeria was reaping the benefits of the US-Iran war, as the NNPC increased the price of its flagship grade, Bonny Light, by $6.13 per barrel for May compared to April. Similarly, Forcados was also raised by $7.01 per barrel.

“Nigeria reaps the benefits of the Iran war. Nigeria’s national oil company NNPC has raised the official selling prices of all 37 Nigerian crude grades for May-loading cargoes, hiking its flagship grade Bonny Light by a whopping $6.13 per barrel compared to April, while Forcados is up by $7.01 per barrel,” the report stated.

The PUNCH had on Wednesday projected that the development might indicate that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery could pay more for crude, thereby pushing up fuel prices.

It was observed that filling stations wasted no time in moving up their pump prices from an average of N1,250 to over N1,300 per litre on Wednesday in Lagos and other states in the South-West. Checks by The PUNCH showed that filling stations in Lagos and Ogun states sold petrol at prices ranging from N1,315 to N1,350 as of Wednesday.

The NNPC filling stations at the Mowe/Ibafo axis of the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway sold petrol at N1,315 a litre, while Mobil offered N1,320.

The prices depend on the location. In the north and other locations far from the Dangote refinery, petrol prices were raised to around N1,400 per litre. People living in Ogun border communities said a litre of petrol is close to N1,700 because the Federal Government has not allowed the supply of petroleum products in their areas.

Speaking, the National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, said prices may continue to soar unless US President Donald Trump allows peace to reign in the Middle East.

Gillis-Harry said fuel sellers have been subjected to sudden price volatility that makes business decisions somewhat difficult. He regretted that the Federal Government is not taking steps to support the masses despite making more gains from the high oil prices.

“This is what we have been introduced to, price volatility. And then the government is not making any statements about it, so it’s worrisome. At least, the government could come up with some measures. We are making some gains now on the price of crude oil. The government can give some back to reduce the cost of transportation, so food is not going to be expensive, along with a few other things. That’s what we have advised,” he said.

The PETROAN boss said the price of petrol could go above N1,500 per litre if the Middle East crisis is not de-escalated.

“If you go back to our predictions, I stated it there because Mr Trump is not very clear as to what he wants, in my opinion; if it is to decimate the Iranian nuclear facility or if it is to take over the crude oil as they are taking over Venezuela’s. I don’t think we know what he wants exactly. So we are not sure we are seeing the end of that crisis.

“You can see that the UAE has opted out of OPEC, and the speed at which they are opting out is very fast, which is why we have also advised that Nigeria should think out of the box and look at how production can be improved. It doesn’t need any rocket science; we have the reserves. It is to encourage investors and make sure that host communities are at peace and that violence is no longer the focus. The assets that were discovered in Bauchi and elsewhere, in which billions of dollars were invested, have not achieved anything.

“So we should pay attention to all those areas and increase our production value and production speed so we can at least clearly put 2 million barrels into domestic refining. That will be much better because we will then become a refining hub to guarantee jobs, improve businesses, and make our economy more active. People will work for reasonable money and pay better taxes without grumbling. That’s where we are,” he advised.

Gillis-Harry said the Dangote refinery showed its influence by changing prices at will, saying retailers will keep adjusting. “Dangote has increased the price again because he is the lord of the manor. So we will keep adjusting,” he added.

The PETROAN boss maintained that the NNPC oil price hike contributed to the petrol price increase, saying, however, that every single increase was a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“Every single increase from any quarter is because we are not trading locally. All products in Nigeria are still internationally benchmarked. Regardless of whether we’re paying naira for crude for local refining, it’s still measured in the dollar equivalent. The only thing it has done is that you’re not going to scramble for forex to buy the crude that you’re going to refine here.

“We advise that that privilege should be extended to all refineries, be they modular or not, at least the refineries that are producing PMS or are about to produce,” he said.

A senior management official of the Dangote Group had revealed on Monday that the Dangote refinery had been subsidising the petrol and diesel it was selling to the Nigerian market.

According to the official, who spoke to our correspondent in confidence due to the lack of authorisation to speak, the company’s N1,200/litre ex-depot price for petrol was below the competitive market price, considering the jump in crude prices following the US-Iran war.

The PUNCH reports that the war in the Middle East triggered an oil price surge when the Strait of Hormuz was blocked by Iran. From $66 per barrel on February 28, Brent, the global benchmark for crude, jumped above $100 a barrel.

As a result, Dangote raised its petrol gantry price from N774 to N1,275 as of the time of filing this report. The oil price hike also affected diesel and aviation fuel.

In their reactions to the rising oil prices due to the US-Iran war, local refiners urged the Federal Government to drop the use of international pricing benchmarks for crude supplied to domestic plants, saying the current structure inflates costs and undermines local refining.

The spokesperson for the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria, Eche Idoko, said in an interview that the association had consistently pushed for a domestic pricing arrangement that reflects Nigeria’s peculiarities.

According to Idoko, crude supplied to local refineries should be priced based on locally designed pricing instead of using Brent as a benchmark.

“If you are using Brent to benchmark our pricing, the factors that are affecting the Brent pricing will still affect the price at which you are landing crude here. What we have always insisted on is that those elements in Brent that do not apply to the trade between the local refinery and the oil producers should be discounted. And like that, you get the actual cost of crude for local refineries,” he said.

An economist, Bismarck Rewane, said, “One of the options that can be explored is that the Federal Government of Nigeria agrees to sell crude at a particular price to the Dangote refinery with the assurance that the price of refined products does not increase.”

Energy economists have also called on the Federal Government to take steps towards assuaging the effects of rising fuel prices on the masses. However, the government has yet to respond to the calls even as inflation figures rise again.

US doubles down on Iran

Meanwhile, the US continues to seek to pile pressure on Iran with the naval blockade outside the Strait of Hormuz as the Trump administration signals the blockade is yielding results and will not be lifted anytime soon, Oilprice.com reports.

“While the surviving IRGC leaders are trapped like drowning rats in a sewage pipe, Iran’s creaking oil industry is starting to shut in production, thanks to the US blockade,” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a post on X on Tuesday.

“Pumping will soon collapse. Gasoline shortages in Iran next!” Bessent added.

In another post, the secretary wrote that “Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal, is soon nearing storage capacity, which will force the regime to reduce oil production, resulting in an additional approximately $170m per day in lost revenue and causing permanent damage to Iran’s oil infrastructure.”

“Treasury will continue to exert maximum pressure, and any person, vessel, or entity facilitating illicit flows to Tehran risks exposure to US sanctions,” Bessent added.

US President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, US officials told the Wall Street Journal earlier this week.

The President preferred to keep the blockade and try to choke off Iran’s oil exports and revenues to the other options, such as renewing bombing of Iran or walking away from the war, the officials told the Journal.

Meanwhile, at least six Iranian tankers laden with oil are loitering in a cluster near the port of Chabahar in Iran, outside the Strait of Hormuz but just inside the US naval blockade line, satellite images and maritime intelligence analyses have shown.

The planned exit of the United Arab Emirates from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is stirring fresh concerns among energy experts, who warn that the development may weaken the cartel’s influence on global oil prices and ultimately hurt Nigeria’s revenue outlook.

The UAE’s withdrawal, effective May 1, 2026, is expected to take about 1.2 billion barrels of annual crude production outside OPEC’s coordinated supply framework, marking one of the most significant shifts in the oil alliance in decades.

While the development has been framed in some quarters as an opportunity for Nigeria to capture additional market share, analysts say the reality may be far less optimistic, as the exit could trigger price instability and expose structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s oil sector.

Data obtained by our correspondent showed that the UAE produced an average of 3.36 million barrels per day in 2025, accounting for roughly 12 per cent of OPEC’s total output. Its departure effectively removes one of the cartel’s most disciplined producers from the quota system.

Commenting in separate interviews with our correspondent on Wednesday, experts warned that the UAE’s exit from OPEC could weaken the cartel’s price control, trigger lower crude prices, and ultimately leave Nigeria worse off despite any potential increase in production quota.

Energy economist and Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics, Wumi Iledare, said the move points to deeper cracks within the alliance and signals a more competitive global oil market.

In a note titled “OPEC Cohesion Under Strain: A Note for Nigeria,” Iledare stated, “The current speculation around a possible UAE exit from OPEC, whether confirmed or not, points to a deeper structural issue: growing tension between expanded production capacity and quota constraints within OPEC+.

“From a petroleum economics perspective, countries that have invested heavily in capacity, like the UAE, face a clear incentive to prioritise volume monetisation over collective price management. If this trend strengthens, OPEC’s ability to enforce discipline may gradually weaken—not abruptly, but through rising non-compliance.”

He warned that Nigeria faces a dual risk in the evolving market. “For Nigeria, the risk is twofold. First, potential downward pressure on oil prices in a less coordinated market. Second, and more critical, our domestic underperformance—production shortfalls, high costs, and leakages—limits our ability to benefit even when prices are favourable,” he added.

According to him, the country must prepare for a future where OPEC’s price-shielding role becomes less reliable. “The policy takeaway is straightforward: Nigeria must prepare for a less reliable OPEC price umbrella. This means improving production efficiency and security, reducing unit costs, adopting more conservative fiscal assumptions, and accelerating gas-led diversification.

“Whether or not the UAE exits (OPEC), the signal is clear: the global oil market is becoming more competitive and less forgiving. Nigeria must respond with discipline, not dependence,” Iledare said.

Also speaking, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Muda Yusuf, said the UAE’s exit is more likely to disadvantage Nigeria than benefit it. “I think the exit of the UAE from OPEC is even likely to be a disadvantage for Nigeria. That’s the way I am looking at it,” Yusuf said.

“The objective of OPEC is to ensure that we have a good price, so that we can get good revenue, because OPEC is a cartel that influences supply and price. Now that a major member has left, their capacity to wield that influence has diminished. That means the UAE is now free to sell as much crude as it wants to the market, which may lead to a reduction in price and in the power of OPEC to influence price.”

He added that even if Nigeria receives a higher production quota, the benefits could be wiped out by falling prices. “We can have more quota, but the price may be lower, because the function that OPEC plays is to stabilise prices. If prices are going down, OPEC can reduce supply. But now the organisation is weaker. So that is my perspective on the issue. The exit of the UAE is likely to be more of a disadvantage than an advantage. It may weaken oil prices,” he said.

Yusuf warned that Nigeria could face a worst-case scenario if it fails to improve output. “If the price is not strong enough because OPEC is now weaker and output is still not there, that is a double tragedy for the country,” he stated.

He urged the government to focus on boosting production and reducing reliance on crude exports. “For Nigeria, what the government can do is to improve our output so that even if the price is not strong enough and our output is okay, at least we would still have enough.

“Beyond that, we should depend less on crude oil. We should diversify our economy and export more refined products. That would give us more returns than exporting raw crude,” he added.

On the global stage, Head of Energy Research at MST Financial, Saul Kavonic, warned that the UAE’s decision could signal a broader breakdown within OPEC+.

“This could mark the beginning of the end for OPEC as we know it. With the UAE leaving, the organisation is effectively losing about 15 per cent of its capacity, along with one of its most disciplined and reliable producers. That raises serious concerns about the group’s ability to maintain cohesion and enforce production targets going forward,” he said.

The UAE, which joined OPEC in 1967, said its decision followed a comprehensive review of its production strategy and future energy outlook. In a statement issued by its Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure, the country said, “This decision reflects the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile, including accelerated investment in domestic energy production.

“It reinforces its commitment to a responsible, reliable, and forward-looking role in global energy markets.”

The ministry added that the move was driven by national interest and the need for greater flexibility in responding to market conditions. The exit comes amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route, where disruptions have heightened concerns about supply volatility.

Despite these tensions, the UAE maintained that it would continue to supply oil responsibly while gradually increasing production based on market demand.

For Nigeria, however, the bigger concern remains its ability to respond effectively. The country has consistently struggled to meet its OPEC quota due to oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment. Industry data also shows that OPEC+’s share of global oil supply has already declined, dropping to about 44 per cent in March from 48 per cent in February, underscoring weakening control over the market.

Founded in 1960, OPEC has historically played a central role in stabilising oil prices through coordinated production cuts. But internal disagreements, shifting national priorities, and the global energy transition have increasingly tested the alliance.

The UAE’s exit now amplifies those pressures, raising a critical question for Nigeria: whether it can adapt quickly enough to survive in a more volatile and less coordinated oil market.

For now, experts say the answer will depend less on global developments and more on Nigeria’s ability to fix its long-standing production challenges and reduce its dependence on crude oil revenues.