Equities on the Nigerian Exchange continued their upward momentum in the holiday-shortened trading week, with market capitalisation rising by N578bn as renewed buying interest across key sectors lifted major indices.

At the close of the latest trading session, total market capitalisation stood at N97.8tn, reflecting sustained investor confidence despite fewer trading days during the week. The positive performance was driven largely by gains in banking, consumer goods, and premium stocks.

Trading activity improved significantly compared to the previous session, as a total of 677.43 million shares, valued at N20.78bn, were exchanged in 27,576 deals. This represented a 50 per cent increase in traded volume and a 60 per cent rise in turnover. However, the number of deals declined by 17 per cent, suggesting larger ticket transactions dominated market activity.

In all, 128 listed equities participated in trading, with market breadth closing positive as 29 stocks recorded price appreciation against 27 losers.

Aluminium Extrusion Industries topped the gainers’ chart, appreciating by 9.96 per cent to close at N14.90 per share. Austin Laz and Company followed closely with a gain of 9.81 per cent to N2.91, while Custodian and Allied Insurance rose by 9.69 per cent to N38.50. First HoldCo also posted strong gains, advancing by 9.35 per cent to close at N50.30.

On the losers’ side, Royal Exchange recorded the highest decline, shedding 7.22 per cent to close at N1.80 per share. Champion Breweries fell by 6.57 per cent to N15.65, while National Salt Company declined by 5.36 per cent to N105.05.

Sovereign Trust Insurance also ended the session lower, losing 5.28 per cent to close at N3.77.

VFD Group emerged as the most actively traded stock by volume, with 191.97 million shares exchanged during the session. This was followed by Guaranty Trust Holding Company, which recorded 63.45 million shares traded, Access Holdings with 49.77 million shares, and First HoldCo with 45.81 million shares.

In value terms, Guaranty Trust Holding Company led the market, with trades valued at N5.59bn. First HoldCo followed with transactions worth N2.25bn, while VFD Group recorded N2.07bn in value traded. Aradel Holdings and Zenith Bank also featured among the top value drivers of the session.

The Index rose by 895.04 points, or 0.59 per cent, to close at 153,354.11. This performance translated to a one-week gain of 2.61 per cent, a four-week gain of 6.67 per cent, and a year-to-date return of 48.99 per cent, underscoring the strength of the ongoing market rally.

Sectoral indices closed broadly positive. The Consumer Goods Index recorded one of the strongest performances, rising by 1.3 per cent and extending its year-to-date gain to 119.12 per cent. The Banking Index advanced by 1.23 per cent, bringing its year-to-date return to 36.55 per cent. The Premium Index rose by 0.61 per cent, while the Pension Index gained 0.57 per cent. The Top 30 Index and the Main Board Index also closed higher, reflecting broad-based market strength.

Market analysts attributed the sustained rally to continued bargain hunting, strong earnings expectations, and portfolio rebalancing ahead of year-end, particularly by institutional investors. They noted that despite the shortened trading week due to the holiday, investor sentiment remained upbeat, supported by robust liquidity and sector rotation into fundamentally strong stocks.

With equities maintaining positive momentum, market watchers expect trading to remain active in the near term, as investors position for dividend-paying stocks and assess macroeconomic developments ahead of the new year.

The Nigerian Exchange closed the first trading session of the week on a positive note, with investors gaining N257bn as buying interest in select stocks lifted key market indices.

At the close of trading, total market capitalisation rose to N97.2tn, reflecting renewed optimism despite a slowdown in trading activities. The benchmark NGX All-Share Index advanced by 401.69 points, or 0.26 per cent, to settle at 152,459.07 points, extending the market’s upward trend. The performance translated to a one-week gain of 2.02 per cent, a four-week gain of 6.16 per cent and a year-to-date return of 48.12 per cent.

Trading data showed that a total of 451.48 million shares valued at N13.00bn were exchanged in 33,290 deals. Compared with the previous trading day, market turnover declined by 22 per cent and volume dropped by 49 per cent, although the number of deals improved by 30 per cent, indicating sustained investor participation.

Market breadth closed positive, as 129 listed equities participated in trading, with thirty-four gainers outweighing twenty losers. Aluminium Extrusion Industries topped the gainers’ chart after its share price appreciated by 9.72 per cent to close at N13.55 per share. International Energy Insurance followed with a gain of 9.69 per cent, while MeCure Industries rose by 9.64 per cent and Royal Exchange added 9.60 per cent.

On the losers’ side, Custodian and Allied Insurance led the decline with a 10.00 per cent drop to close at N35.10 per share. Associated Bus Company also shed 10.00 per cent, while Prestige Assurance Company fell by 7.41 per cent and Guinea Insurance declined by 7.38 per cent.

Activity on the trading floor was driven by Tantalizers, which recorded the highest volume with 50.18 million shares exchanged. First HoldCo followed with 32.62 million shares, while Access Holdings traded 27.32 million shares, and Custodian and Allied Insurance recorded 22.10 million shares.

In terms of sectoral performance, most indices closed in positive territory. The Top 30 Index gained 0.27 per cent, the Industrial Index rose by 0.91 per cent, the Consumer Goods Index advanced by 0.50 per cent and the Main Board Index increased by 0.39 per cent. The Pension Index edged up by 0.01 per cent, while the Oil and Gas Index closed flat for the session.

Overall, analysts say the market’s positive close reflects continued selective buying by investors, particularly in industrial, consumer and insurance stocks, as sentiment remains upbeat in the equities market.

Despite an improvement in crude oil production, the Federal Government earned 63.49 per cent less than its projected oil revenue target in the first half of 2025, according to the second quarter Budget Performance Report released by the Budget Office on Monday.

The report showed that gross oil revenue of N9.32tn was recorded between January and June 2025, far below the N25.52tn pro-rated budget projection for the period. This translated into a N16.20tn shortfall, underscoring the persistent fragility of Nigeria’s oil-dependent fiscal structure.

Data from the report also indicated that average crude oil production stood at 1.68 million barrels per day, below the budget benchmark of 2.12mbpd, with significant revenue implications for the Federation Account.

However, output improved marginally compared with earlier periods, rising by 0.08mbpd from the 1.6mbpd recorded in the first quarter of 2025 and by 0.27mbpd above the 1.41mbpd produced in the corresponding period of 2024.

Despite missing its revenue target, the half-year performance marked a notable improvement year-on-year, as oil revenue increased by N2.78tn, or 42.59 per cent, compared with the actual half-year earnings recorded in 2024.

The report read, “Gross oil revenue amounting to N9.32tn was collected in the first half of 2025 as against N25.52tn prorate budget projection for the period. This denotes a decrease of N16.20tn (63.49 per cent) from the 2025 half-year budget estimate. It, however, reflects an increase of N2.78tn (42.59 per cent) from the actual half-year gross oil revenue performance reported in 2024.”

Crude oil has remained Nigeria’s single most important source of foreign exchange and public revenue for over five decades, accounting for about 80–90 per cent of export earnings and more than half of government revenue in most fiscal years.

Earnings from crude oil exports largely determine the country’s foreign exchange inflows, the strength of the naira, and the volume of funds available for distribution to the federal, state, and local governments through the Federation Account Allocation Committee.

These revenues are highly sensitive to international oil prices, production volumes, exchange rates, and fiscal terms, making government income vulnerable to external shocks.

Despite its dominance, Nigeria’s reliance on oil has exposed the economy to repeated fiscal stress during periods of price crashes or production disruptions. Challenges such as crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, underinvestment, operational inefficiencies, and regulatory uncertainty have often constrained output and revenue performance, even when global oil prices are favourable.

A detailed breakdown of the figures revealed mixed outcomes across revenue lines. Concessional rentals surged to N24.82bn, exceeding the half-year projection of N2.06bn by N22.77bn (1,106.99 per cent), while miscellaneous oil revenue, including pipeline fees, rose to N29.73bn, beating its N11.72bn projection by N18.01bn (153.65 per cent).

In contrast, the major oil revenue streams significantly underperformed. Crude oil and gas sales generated N712.57bn, falling short of the N2.36tn target by N1.64tn (69.76 per cent). Petroleum Profit and Gas Taxes yielded N4.16tn, missing the projection of N15.69tn by N11.53tn (73.47 per cent).

Similarly, oil and gas royalties stood at N3.53tn, lower than the N6.86tn estimate by N3.33tn (48.54 per cent), while incidental oil revenue, including royalty recoveries and marginal field licences, came in at N438.90bn, undershooting its N591.76bn projection by N152.87bn (25.83 per cent).

The report also noted that gas flaring penalties and exchange gains, which had no half-year budget projections, contributed N267.25bn and N148.31bn, respectively, during the period under review.

According to the Budget Office, oil revenue performance in the second quarter of 2025 improved compared with 2024 levels, largely due to higher crude output and improved collection of petroleum profit tax and royalties. Non-oil revenues also posted gains, attributed mainly to inflationary pressures and increased economic activities.

On pricing, Nigeria’s crude averaged $74 per barrel in Q2 2025, representing a marginal decline of $0.98 per barrel (1.31 per cent) from Q1 2025 and a sharper drop of $10.76 per barrel (12.69 per cent) compared with the corresponding quarter of 2024. The figure was also $1 below the $75 per barrel benchmark set in the 2025 budget.

Although production improved from 1.6mbpd in Q1 2025 and 1.41mbpd in the same period of 2024, the report highlighted that Nigeria’s oil sector continues to face deep-seated challenges, including crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, weak security, underinvestment in infrastructure, regulatory uncertainty, and limited domestic refining capacity.

In the second quarter alone, gross oil revenue stood at N4.77tn, representing a N7.99tn (62.62 per cent) shortfall from the N12.76tn quarterly projection. Nonetheless, this was N1.59tn (33.33 per cent) higher than the N3.18tn recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024.

On the non-oil side, gross non-oil revenue of N4.46tn was recorded in Q2, reflecting an increase of N404.26bn (6.68 per cent) above estimates. After deductions, the net distributable revenue available to the three tiers of government stood at N9.85tn, representing a shortfall of N7.01tn (41.58 per cent).

The figures reinforce ongoing concerns about Nigeria’s fiscal vulnerability amid oil market volatility, production shortfalls, and structural weaknesses, despite reforms introduced under the Petroleum Industry Act.

The report added that Nigeria’s oil sector continues to grapple with deep-seated challenges, including persistent crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and inadequate security, which have contributed to production shortfalls and supply disruptions. It noted that underinvestment in modern technology and infrastructure, corruption and regulatory uncertainties, as well as the country’s heavy reliance on crude oil exports, have continued to expose public finances to market volatility.

Dangote Petroleum Refinery has announced the launch of a dedicated hotline for Nigerians to report any MRS Oil Nigeria Plc filling station selling Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) above the approved pump price of N739 per litre.

The firm also warned marketers against creating artificial scarcity, saying the refinery is supplying up to 50 million litres per day.

In a statement on Monday, the refinery said the initiative underscored its commitment to ensuring transparency, affordability, and consumer protection in the downstream petroleum market.

“The hotline number 0800123 5264 is now active nationwide, enabling consumers to promptly report violations and help maintain fair pricing across over 2,000 MRS stations. This measure follows the refinery’s recent commencement of nationwide PMS sales at N739 per litre—a strategic intervention aimed at stabilising fuel prices and easing the financial burden on Nigerians during the festive season,” the statement said.

The Dangote refinery emphasised its mission to deliver affordable, high-quality fuel while safeguarding national economic interests.

“We encourage Nigerians to avoid purchasing PMS at inflated prices when locally refined fuel is available at N739 per litre. Report any MRS station selling above this price by calling our hotline. Together, we can ensure that the benefits of this price reduction reach every consumer,” the statement read.

The refinery also reaffirmed its commitment to steady supply, backed by a guaranteed daily output of 50 million litres, and warned against attempts to create artificial scarcity or manipulate supply, urging regulatory authorities to remain vigilant and take decisive action against unpatriotic practices.

“By refining locally at scale, Dangote Refinery is reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imports, conserving foreign exchange, stabilising the naira, and strengthening energy security. This initiative represents a significant milestone in the country’s journey toward sustainable energy solutions and economic recovery,” it stated.

The refinery also issued a stern warning against attempts by unscrupulous operators to create artificial scarcity in response to the price reduction, calling on government agencies to act decisively.

“Any attempt to create artificial scarcity or manipulate supply to frustrate recent price reductions is unpatriotic and unacceptable. We urge regulatory authorities to remain vigilant and take firm action against such practices, especially during this critical festive period,” the statement added.

Dangote Petroleum Refinery has commenced nationwide sales of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) at a pump price of N739 per litre across all MRS Oil Nigeria Plc filling stations, marking a significant milestone in the refinery’s mission to deliver affordable fuel to Nigerians and stabilise the downstream petroleum market.

In a statement from the firm on Sunday, it stated that with over 2,000 MRS stations nationwide, the new pricing is expected to be implemented across all outlets, ensuring that the benefits of the reduction reach consumers throughout the country. The refinery commended marketers who have embraced the new pricing regime and urged others to follow suit in support of national economic recovery.

“We commend MRS and other marketers who have demonstrated patriotism by reflecting the reduced price at the pump. We call on others to join this effort as a show of support for Nigeria’s economic recovery,” the refinery stated.

Historically, the festive season in Nigeria has been associated with fuel scarcity and sharp price hikes. However, Dangote refinery has intervened decisively—reducing pump prices at a time when Nigerians typically brace for hardship. Backed by a guaranteed daily supply of 50 million litres, this initiative fundamentally alters supply dynamics during the holiday period.

By refining locally at scale, the refinery is reducing Nigeria’s exposure to volatile global markets, conserving foreign exchange, stabilising the naira, and strengthening energy security.

The sustained price cut and steady supply are providing relief to households, businesses, and transport operators nationwide.

The refinery also issued a stern warning against attempts by unscrupulous operators to create artificial scarcity in response to the price reduction, calling on government agencies to act decisively.

“Any attempt to create artificial scarcity or manipulate supply to frustrate recent price reductions is unpatriotic and unacceptable. We urge regulatory authorities to remain vigilant and take firm action against such practices, especially during this critical festive period,” the statement added.

Consumers were advised to resist purchasing fuel at inflated prices when cheaper, high-quality alternatives are readily available.

“We encourage Nigerians to avoid buying PMS at excessively high prices when they can access locally refined fuel at ₦739 per litre from over 2,000 MRS stations nationwide. Report any MRS station selling above ₦739 per litre by calling 0800 123 5264,” the refinery said.

The company also called on other petrol station operators to patronize its products so that the benefits of the price reduction can reach all Nigerians, ensuring broad-based relief and a more stable downstream market.

Dangote Petroleum Refinery reaffirmed its commitment to steady supply, price moderation, and energy security, emphasizing that its operations are anchored on long-term national interest rather than short-term market pressures.

“Our objective remains clear: to ensure a consistent supply of high-quality petroleum products at affordable prices for Nigerians, while supporting economic stability and reducing dependence on imports,” the refinery concluded.

With roughly three months to the end of the expiration of the deadline for recapitalisation in the banking sector, shareholder groups have demanded action from banks that are yet to cross the minimum capital requirement thresholds.

In separate interviews with The PUNCH over the weekend, the leaders in the minority investors community lamented that they would be worst hit if banks fail to meet the new MCRs ahead of schedule.

After the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting of 2025, the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Olayemi Cardoso, disclosed that 16 banks have achieved full compliance with the revised capital requirements, ahead of the deadline.

Cardoso reiterated CBN’s commitment to ensuring an orderly end to the recapitalisation exercise during a presentation at the U.S.-Nigeria Executive Business Roundtable held in Washington, D.C., this week. According to THISDAY, which obtained a copy of the presentation, Cardoso said, “Nigeria is now in the final phase of its most significant banking-sector strengthening effort in over a decade. The recapitalisation programme is designed to safeguard financial stability, expand banks’ capacity to lend, and ensure the financial system is able to underpin Nigeria’s broader economic transformation.

“We’re making good progress. 16 banks have already met or exceeded the new capital thresholds, while 27 have raised capital through public offers, rights issues, private placements, and mergers.”

While hailing the feat achieved thus far and expressing confidence in the ability of the remaining banks to meet the MCR, the minority investors’ community also fears that they would be left holding the short end of the stick if some of the banks don’t meet the threshold.

National Coordinator of the Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria, Moses Igbrude, said, “The banks’ recapitalisation hurdle so far has been very impressive and encouraging, seeing about 16 banks crossing the hurdle. The most impressive part of it is how investors, especially the Nigerian investors, embraced and keyed in to the various offers that were made to the point of oversubscription. It is a sign that investors, both local and international, have strong confidence and believe in the Nigerian capital market.

“As the deadline comes closer, I have the confidence that the remaining banks are in the various stages of capitalising; after all, there are different banking licences: regional, national and international licences. If you cannot meet the highest category, you go for the lower one.

As for the nationalised banks, the government should recapitalise them through the CBN, which is running them on behalf of the FG. After the recapitalisation process, the FG should privatise them by selling 60 per cent to qualified core investors and the remaining 40 per cent to the Nigerian people to recover the money used to recapitalise them and list the shares on the floor of the NGX.”

To the banks still lagging, Igbrude said, “If there are banks that are not making headway, they should do so now through all available means, both private placement and mergers and acquisitions, or opt for the lowest licence available to avoid revocation of their licences. Let them not say there is still time.  Let them make hay while there’s sunshine.”

The National Coordinator of the Pragmatic Shareholders Association, Bisi Bakare, in her comments, called for speed: “The recapitalisation process is going on well so far, and according to CBN, only 16 banks have concluded their capital raising.  It’s my opinion that as deadlines draw closer, banks should hasten up for merger, strategic realignment or be outrightly acquired by other strong banks rather than waiting for the CBN regulatory hammer, which would not work in their favour nor shareholders’ (investors’).”

The chairman of the Ibadan Zone Shareholders Association, Ayoola Gilbert, called on the CBN to be prepared with clear contingency plans to safeguard the system’s integrity as the recapitalisation deadline gets closer.

“This policy is not just about bigger numbers on the bank’s balance sheet. The CBN has positioned it as a foundational pillar for achieving a $1tn economy by 2030. The core objectives are to create banks strong enough to withstand domestic and global economic shocks while enabling banks to take on larger risks and provide the substantial credit needed to fund critical national projects and support key sectors like MSMEs. If a significant number of banks are still scrambling as of the fourth quarter of 2025, the consequences will ripple through the entire financial ecosystem, directly impacting consumers, shareholder value and systemic trust.

“The successful banks like Access Holdings, Zenith Bank, and Wema Bank, which have raised hundreds of billions, demonstrate that recapitalisation is achievable and can be rewarded by the market. Their strength positions them to lead financing for Nigeria’s growth. As shareholders, we must urge the boards and management of our banks to exhaust every option, be it rights issues, private placements, or strategic mergers, with urgency. Simultaneously, we call on the CBN to communicate a clear, transparent contingency framework well before the deadline. Knowing the rules of a potential orderly consolidation will do more to maintain confidence than a last-minute regulatory scramble.”

The Independent Petroleum Producers Group has marked its 10th anniversary, celebrating a decade of resilience, collaboration, and transformative impact in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry.

Speaking at the milestone event, the IPPG Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Aradel Holdings, Mr Adegbite Falade, described the journey as “a decade defined by purpose, partnership, and impact,” according to a statement from IPPG on Sunday.

He said the anniversary was not merely a celebration of longevity, but a reaffirmation of the Group’s shared commitment to strengthening indigenous leadership and advancing Nigeria’s energy sector.

“This anniversary marks a decade in which indigenous operators have demonstrated their capacity to lead, deliver value, and shape the future of Nigeria’s energy sector,” Falade said.

Over the past 10 years, IPPG has evolved into a leading industry voice and a credible partner in sector development.

Through sustained advocacy and collaboration with government and regulators, indigenous operators now account for over 50 per cent of Nigeria’s crude oil and gas production, an achievement widely regarded as evidence of IPPG’s growing influence and effectiveness.

Falade commended the administration of President Bola Tinubu for reforms aimed at repositioning the sector for growth and investment. He also acknowledged the support of the Ministers of State for Petroleum Resources, the Special Adviser to the President on Energy, and the leadership of key institutions, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board, and the NNPC Limited.

Reflecting on the anniversary theme, “Building on a Decade of Impact,” Falade reaffirmed IPPG’s commitment to supporting government efforts to achieve energy security, particularly in the wake of International Oil Company divestments. He stressed that responsibility now rests squarely on indigenous operators to deliver sustainable production growth.

Representing President Tinubu at the event, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, described IPPG as a critical force in the industry and “one of the best things to have happened to Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.” He also cited the appointment of Mr Ademola Adeyemi-Bero as Nigeria’s OPEC Governor and Chairman of the OPEC Board of Governors for 2025 as global recognition of indigenous capacity.

The celebration featured a high-level fireside chat focused on indigenous leadership and the future of the industry, alongside Leadership Recognition Awards honouring distinguished members and sector leaders.

Looking ahead, IPPG reiterated its resolve to contribute meaningfully to Nigeria’s targets of producing three million barrels of oil per day and 12 billion standard cubic feet of gas by 2030. Over the next five years, the Group said it would prioritise infrastructure expansion, host community engagement in the Niger Delta, capacity building, strong governance, and responsible resource development.

As IPPG enters its second decade, the Group reaffirmed its commitment to act as a catalyst for Nigeria’s economic transformation and industrialisation by harnessing the nation’s vast oil and gas resources to create viable linkages between the industry and the broader economy.