The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has assured prospective investors that a drop in crude oil prices after the end of the ongoing US-Iran war will not directly affect its profitability.

The Vice President of Dangote Industries Limited, Devakumar Edwin, gave the assurance on Friday amid concerns that a fall in crude prices could weaken the returns on investments in the refinery’s ongoing initial public offering.

Edwin spoke during a media tour and briefing at the refinery, where he explained that the company’s profitability was driven by refining margins rather than the absolute price of crude oil.

“The crude price will not directly have an impact on profitability. Because, let us say, you are a trader. You are importing stationery and selling. You want to have a 20 per cent profit margin. Whatever your import price is, you will add the 20 per cent and keep your profit margin.

“So, your import price is not going to affect your profit margin because you are focused on your margins. So, the same way, when the crude price goes up, our product’s price will go up. When the crude price comes down, the product’s price will come down,” he stated.

Edwin was responding to concerns over the possible effect of the end of the US-Iran conflict on crude prices and, consequently, the profitability of the refinery and returns to shareholders.

He, however, said the ongoing geopolitical crisis could temporarily boost the refinery’s profitability, not because of higher crude prices but because of disruptions to the supply of refined petroleum products.

According to him, some refineries were unable to operate at full capacity because they could not obtain enough crude, while refineries in the Middle East were also unable to supply their usual volumes of products.

“But, during the war, there could be a little bit of extra profitability now. It is not because of crude, but because product movement is affected. So, irrespective of the crude price, the product price still goes higher because of a shortage in the market.

“Some of the refineries in the Middle East are not able to operate fully because they are not able to get enough crude. Also, all the products that used to come out from the Middle East are not getting into the market. So, there will be an extra profitability for this period,” Edwin stated.

He said the additional profitability from the supply disruption would eventually decline. “The extra profitability will go down. But when we made the investment of $20bn, we made our own calculation. How much is going to be our profit? How much will our returns be? So, we are on target as far as that is concerned,” he said.

Dollar dividends

The Dangote executive also assured prospective investors that the company’s president, Aliko Dangote, had declared that dividends from the refinery would be paid in foreign exchange.

Contrary to fears that the current N525 share value could drop after listing, Edwin said there would be value appreciation. “As a company, we believe that there is going to be a very good value appreciation. There will be very good returns in terms of dividends. And my president has even declared that the dividends will be in foreign exchange, in dollars,” Edwin said.

He explained that the refinery’s export earnings would provide the foreign exchange needed to support the dividend commitment.

“As I said, 50 per cent is going into exports. Now, the new refinery will let 100 per cent go for export because we are already exporting half of our production. As for the new refinery, practically everything will have to be exported. So foreign exchange generation is going to be huge. That is why he was able to give the assurance that we will be paying in dollars,” Edwin added.

The assurance came as the refinery seeks to attract millions of Nigerians as shareholders through the IPO. Edwin said Dangote Industries had deliberately chosen to offer shares in the refinery after the facility had been completed, commissioned and operated for some time, rather than raising equity while the project was still under construction.

He said this approach meant that investors were buying into an operating company with an established financial record. “So what we are achieving is that none of the shareholders is taking any risk,” he said.

Edwin noted that the company had released its first six months’ operational results, which prospective investors could examine before committing their funds. He said the Dangote Group had historically followed a policy of completing major projects, commencing operations and generating profits before going public.

The executive also urged individuals considering the IPO to conduct their own assessment before investing. “But you, as an individual, when you are putting your money, you can always do your own evaluation,” he stated.

Edwin also disclosed that the ongoing expansion of the refinery was targeted for completion within three years, although the company could finish the project earlier.

He said the cost of the expansion would be slightly lower than the original refinery project because several major infrastructure facilities were already in place. He listed the granite quarry, welding gases plant and port facilities among infrastructure that would not have to be built from scratch.

He added that the company was also seeking to reduce engineering and design costs because much of the expansion would replicate the existing refinery.

“But at the same time, we are also adding petrochemical sites, we are adding linear alkyl benzene, and we are adding up a propane dehydrogenation plant. So that will be the additional cost. But overall, there will be a slight reduction in cost compared to the first strike,” he stated.

Edwin disclosed that all the necessary licences had been obtained, while basic engineering had been completed and almost all detailed engineering work concluded. He said most of the equipment had already been ordered, with contracts signed and advances paid.

“We are at that stage where we have practically gone very far. So we are targeting three years. And probably we may be even doing faster than that,” he said.

On fuel blending, Edwin said the refinery could blend intermediate products where it had spare processing capacity but would rather process crude directly when that was more profitable.

He cited naphtha as an example, saying the refinery could convert the product into gasoline using spare capacity in some of its units. “If I have an extra capacity sitting idle. I can bring naphtha and then convert it to gasoline. So, I am adding value by filling that gap,” he said.

However, he said importing products solely for blending would not make economic sense if the refinery could produce the products directly from crude.

“If I am going to bring products only exclusively for blending, by cutting down my operation, it will be foolishness, because I will be losing money. I would rather produce my products from crude, because my production margins will be more profitable,” Edwin stated.

He added that the refinery would use blending where spare capacity made it commercially viable. “But where I have some extra capacity, I will take advantage by blending. But those refineries that are more closely focused on blending, they have no other alternative,” he said.

Edwin said the decision to take the refinery to the public market was also driven by Dangote’s desire to spread ownership of the business among Nigerians. He said the group had set a target of attracting at least 10 million shareholders, describing it as an unprecedented level of public participation.

“That is why we went a little bit faster, and our focus was to bring in at least 10 million shareholders, which has never been done in the history of the stock market in the world,” Edwin said.

He explained that the minimum subscription threshold was deliberately kept at N5,250 to make it possible for people across different income levels to participate. Edwin also disclosed that Dangote refinery employees were given an opportunity to acquire shares during the private placement.

“Almost all the people in the refinery who know what it is, they all become shareholders, including me,” he said.

The Federal Government and the Central Bank of Nigeria have signed an agreement to coordinate policies on inflation, public debt, government borrowing, liquidity and foreign exchange management as the country moves towards a new inflation-targeting framework.

The Memorandum of Understanding on Fiscal-Monetary Policy Coordination, signed in Abuja on Friday, establishes a formal framework for the Federal Ministry of Finance and the CBN to align key economic decisions without compromising the apex bank’s independence.

CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, said the agreement would deepen cooperation in government cash management, debt issuance, liquidity forecasting, macroeconomic analysis and policy consultations.

“This Memorandum provides a structured framework for regular consultation, information exchange and policy coordination,” Cardoso said.

“It will strengthen collaboration in critical areas such as government cash management, debt issuance planning, liquidity forecasting, macroeconomic analysis and periodic policy consultations, thereby enhancing policy coherence and the effectiveness of economic management.”

The CBN governor said fiscal and monetary policies were complementary, as government expenditure, taxation and borrowing decisions affect economic activity, while monetary policy influences liquidity, interest rates and price stability.

According to him, the agreement is particularly significant as the CBN advances its transition towards an inflation-targeting framework. “The timing of this agreement is particularly noteworthy as the Central Bank of Nigeria advances its transition towards an inflation-targeting framework,” he said.

Cardoso noted that successful inflation targeting required not only effective monetary policy but also a supportive fiscal environment.

He explained that the ministry and the apex bank had collaborated for decades on inflation management, debt sustainability, budget financing, exchange rate stability and responses to economic shocks, but the new agreement would formally institutionalise the relationship.

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, said the government intended to use the framework to prevent fiscal and monetary policies from pulling in different directions.

He stressed, however, that closer coordination would not undermine the CBN’s autonomy. “The operational independence of the Central Bank remains sacrosanct. Coordination must never become fiscal dominance. The CBN will retain full independence in pursuing price and financial-system stability,” Oyedele said.

The minister also disclosed that the government was targeting a sustainable reduction in inflation to single digits, arguing that monetary policy alone could not address Nigeria’s inflation problem.

“Our objective is to bring inflation sustainably into single digits and keep it there, and that cannot be monetary policy’s job alone,” he said. “Fiscal policy must play its part: disciplined, disinflationary spending; sound cash and liquidity management; efficient financing that does not crowd out the private sector.”

Oyedele identified food, imported costs, energy and logistics as structural drivers of inflation, saying the government would pursue stronger grain reserves, improved agricultural yields, irrigation and farm-access roads.

He also ruled out a return to fuel subsidy, warning that reversing the policy could destabilise public finances and the naira. “A return to subsidy would create a fiscal collapse, pressure the naira, and ultimately undermine the price affordability it seeks to provide,” he said.

Oyedele added that the ministry and CBN would share data on cash positions, financing plans, credit growth and foreign exchange flows more efficiently.

The CBN Deputy Governor, Corporate Services Directorate, Dr Muhammad Abdullahi, said the agreement had become more important amid global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.

He cited developments in the Middle East, noting that disruptions to energy and shipping routes could simultaneously affect oil prices, government revenue, inflation, capital flows and financing conditions.

“This is why coordination matters. Coordination does not mean blurring respective mandates or compromising the independence required for effective monetary policy,” Abdullahi said.

He said the agreement would support regular consultations, information sharing, joint technical analysis, scenario planning and stress testing.

According to him, both institutions should be able to assess how changes in oil prices and production could affect fiscal revenue, foreign exchange inflows, external reserves, inflation, liquidity and financing conditions. “Uncertainty is not an argument for waiting; it is an argument for preparedness,” he added.

Also speaking, the Permanent Secretary of the Federal Ministry of Finance, Raymond Omachi, said the agreement was designed to strike a balance between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth.

He said government spending decisions should not inadvertently fuel inflation, while monetary tightening should not unnecessarily constrain growth and employment. “The core objective of the framework is inflation and growth balance,” Omachi said.

He added that the pact would align government borrowing plans with money-market liquidity management to prevent public borrowing from crowding out credit to businesses and to improve interest-rate outcomes.

The permanent secretary said the framework would also cover exchange rate and revenue stability, foreign exchange management, resilience to external shocks and regular data sharing between the two institutions.

The Group Managing Director of United Bank for Africa Plc and Chairman of the Body of Bank CEOs in Nigeria, Oliver Alawuba, has outlined a blueprint for building a resilient Nigerian economy, calling for deliberate policies and stronger public-private collaboration to transform economic stability into inclusive prosperity.

Alawuba made the call while delivering a goodwill address at the 19th Annual Banking and Finance Conference of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria in Abuja on Tuesday.

Speaking on the theme, ‘Building a Resilient Economy in an Era of Disruptions: Imperatives for the Banking and Financial Services Industry,’ he noted that resilience must be intentionally embedded across national policies, institutions, infrastructure, supply chains, energy systems, and human capital.

According to him, a resilient economy is not one immune to shocks, but one capable of absorbing, adapting to, and advancing through disruptions without shifting the financial burden onto vulnerable citizens.

He highlighted ongoing global macroeconomic headwinds, including geopolitical tensions, shipping market volatility, and persistent inflationary pressures, as factors underscoring the need for proactive structural buffers.

Alawuba commended the Federal Government and the Central Bank of Nigeria for improved fiscal and monetary policy coordination, noting that positive trends in key economic indicators represent vital steps toward stabilisation.

He, however, stressed that macroeconomic recovery must translate into broader commercial opportunities and improved living standards for citizens.

Describing commercial banks as the country’s primary financial shock absorbers, the UBA boss disclosed that 33 banks successfully mobilised N4.65tn during the recent recapitalisation exercise. He stated that the capital raise significantly reinforced balance-sheet transparency, capital adequacy, and liquidity required to finance large-scale infrastructure and real-sector projects.

He added that operational resilience within the banking sector is being deepened through heavy technology investments, noting that four tier-one banks deployed over N119bn into digital infrastructure and cybersecurity in the first quarter of 2026, marking a 43.2 per cent year-on-year increase.

Also speaking at the conference, President Bola Tinubu, represented by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, urged financial institutions to look beyond profit margins and channel patient capital toward job-creating enterprises.

The President stressed that the next phase of ongoing reforms centers on transitioning from basic financial intermediation to real economic transformation through accessible credit and technology-driven financial inclusion.

On his part, the Governor of the CBN, Olayemi Cardoso, represented by the Deputy Governor, Economic Policy Directorate, Mr Philip Ikeazor, reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to maintaining financial system stability to anchor recovery.

Similarly, the World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Mathew Verghis, tasked commercial lenders with expanding credit facilities to productive micro, small, and medium-scale enterprises.

Earlier in his opening address, the President and Chairman of Council, CIBN, Prof. Pius Olanrewaju, noted that the ultimate benchmark of economic reform lies in lower living costs, expanded job opportunities, and affordable single-digit credit for businesses.

Nigeria imported textiles and textile articles worth N578.51 billion in the first six months of 2026, reflecting continued pressure on the domestic textile industry as stakeholders push for stronger support for local production.

Latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in the second quarter of 2026 showed that textile imports rose by 2.2 per cent from N565.95bn recorded in the first half of 2025.

The latest figure also extended a long-term increase in Nigeria’s dependence on imported textiles. Textile and textile article imports stood at N365.46bn in 2022 before rising to N377.47bn in 2023, N726.18bn in 2024 and N1.06tn in 2025.

Year-on-year, textile imports increased by 3.3 per cent in 2023, surged by 92.4 per cent in 2024 and climbed by 46.1 per cent in 2025. The 2.2 per cent increase recorded in the first half of 2026, however, points to a much slower growth pace than the sharp increases in the preceding two full years.

Speaking at the Industrial Revolution Work Group Technical Session II held in Lagos on 10 September, the Director-General of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, said the decline of the textile industry had severely affected employment and production capacity.

“Textiles are an important area. During my first assignment in the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, I was coordinating seven states from Abuja to Kaduna, which had seven textile industries. Today there is zero. So it tells the story,” Ajayi-Kadir said.

He added that the industry previously employed about 25,000 workers, stressing that the demand for clothing provided a strong market for domestic textile production. “But the fact remains that everybody must wear something. So there is no need for us to overemphasise the fact that it is important and it is an area that we play,” the MAN DG remarked.

Ajayi-Kadir noted that manufacturers needed to revive the cotton-textile-garment value chain and strengthen domestic demand for locally produced goods. “It has suffered negative growth,” he affirmed.

Ajayi-Kadir hinted at recovery, adding, “What we need to do is revive the cotton-textile-garment value chain input supply. And this is already being done.”

The MAN director-general also pointed to the Federal Government’s efforts to increase the uptake of locally manufactured products through its procurement policies. “We must sign on to export facilitation and Made-in-Nigeria public uptake. To give effect to this, we’ve had the Made-in-Nigeria Executive Order, and it’s now supported by ‘Nigeria First’ (policy),” he said.

Other stakeholders have also highlighted the potential for the domestic industry to recover and expand beyond the Nigerian market.

In an earlier report, the President of the Association of Women in Fashion Tech, Bukola Ajani, told The PUNCH that the local textile industry was being reinvigorated and could increasingly serve markets in other African countries and Europe.

The focus on textiles also forms part of the work of thematic group four of the Industrial Revolution Work Group, which is dedicated to Made-in-Nigeria Patronage and Anti-Counterfeit.

The group is addressing issues including public perception, standard laboratories, smuggling, procurement misalignment and the decline of the textile, pharmaceutical and steel sectors.

The IRWG, co-chaired by the Minister of State for Industry, Sen. John Enoh, and the President of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, Francis Meshioye, is, among others, expected to support measures aimed at strengthening domestic production and increasing patronage of Nigerian-made goods.

As the Federal Government moves to implement the Nigeria First policy, more consumers are also turning to locally produced textile brands, including Merok, produced by Onchek, a brand founded in 2016.

Talks over the possible transfer of Mafab Communications’ 5G spectrum to MTN Nigeria are reopening debate over the value of the $273.6m spectrum holding and its implications for competition and investment in Nigeria’s next-generation mobile market.

Industry sources who spoke to The PUNCH on Thursday confirmed that discussions over a possible sale had taken place, although no concrete deal had been reached and any transfer would require regulatory approval and engagement with other stakeholders.

If Mafab’s spectrum moves to MTN, the operator, which already controls half of Nigeria’s mobile market, would potentially have more frequency resources to deploy alongside its existing network infrastructure.

“The potential deal creates a difficult balance for the regulator. Additional spectrum could enable an established operator like MTN to improve service quality and deploy capacity more efficiently, while greater concentration of spectrum could alter the competitive position of operators that do not have comparable network infrastructure or financial resources,” Telecom consultant Ejikeme Onyeaso told The PUNCH.

Mafab and MTN each paid $273.6m for 100MHz blocks in the 3.5GHz band after emerging as winners of the Nigerian Communications Commission’s 2021 5G spectrum auction.

MTN subsequently paid an additional $15.9m at the assignment stage to secure the 3500–3600MHz block, while Mafab was assigned the 3700–3800MHz block without an additional payment.

The auction was designed to support the introduction of 5G while widening the number of operators with access to high-capacity spectrum. MTN, Mafab and Airtel submitted bids for the two available 100MHz lots before MTN and Mafab emerged as the winners.

The potential combination of Mafab’s spectrum with MTN’s extensive network and tower infrastructure could significantly strengthen the operator’s ability to expand capacity and coverage, according to an industry executive.

“The deal could benefit MTN subscribers if the additional spectrum enabled the operator to improve network capacity and coverage, particularly as demand for mobile data continued to rise. It could also make the operator more attractive to investors,” the executive argued, adding that the move could increase pressure on competing networks.

Nearly five years after the auction, Nigeria’s mobile market is developing at different speeds, with 5G adoption growing from its early stages while 4G continues to account for more than half of mobile connections. The divergence leaves operators balancing investment in newer networks with the immediate demands of their existing customer base.

An industry executive familiar with the telecoms market, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions, questioned why Mafab had not developed a stronger independent ecosystem around the spectrum it acquired.

The executive argued that the industry needed to understand the reasons for Mafab’s experience before assessing the implications of a potential transfer to MTN, while also questioning how the transaction could affect the spectrum position of other major operators, particularly Airtel and Globacom.

“From a spectrum standpoint, we need to understand what position MTN put in, vis-a-vis other operators,” the executive, who also owns a telecoms firm, told The PUNCH.

Our correspondent reached out to MTN Nigeria and Mafab Communications for comments on the deal but had not received responses as of the time of filing this report.

The Nigerian equities market extended its rally for a fifth consecutive session on Wednesday, as investor optimism around the Dangote Refinery listing sustained bullish momentum on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange Limited.

The All-Share Index rose by 487.28 points, representing a gain of 0.20 per cent, to close at 244,791.79 basis points. Similarly, the overall market capitalisation gained N316bn to close at N158.715tn.

The market’s positive performance was driven by price appreciation in large and medium-capitalised stocks, including Nigerian Exchange Group, MTN Nigeria Communications, Nigerian Breweries, Transnational Corporation, and Champion Breweries.

Investor sentiment was positive, as 34 gainers outpaced 25 losers. Sovereign Trust Insurance recorded the highest price gain of 9.69 per cent to close at N2.15 per share.

Champion Breweries followed with a gain of 9.50 per cent to close at N10.95, while Livestock Feeds rose by 9.42 per cent to close at N7.55 per share.

Learn Africa gained 9.09 per cent to close at N8.40, while Mutual Benefits Assurance rose by 8.93 per cent to close at N3.05 per share.

On the other hand, Industrial & Medical Gases Nigeria led the losers’ chart by 9.93 per cent to close at N27.65 per share. John Holt followed with a decline of 9.88 per cent to close at N7.30, while LivingTrust Mortgage Bank shed 9.84 per cent to close at N2.84 per share.

Fidson Healthcare lost 9.19 per cent to close at N72.65, while Royal Exchange dropped 9.00 per cent to close at 91k per share.

The total volume traded advanced by 31.1 per cent to 662.43 million units, valued at N37.45bn, and exchanged in 63,271 deals.

Transactions in the shares of Sterling Financial Holdings Company topped the activity chart with 142.04 million shares valued at N1.07bn. AIICO Insurance followed with 73.63 million shares worth N274.42m, while Fidelity Bank traded 43.33 million shares valued at N873.38m.

Guaranty Trust Holding Company traded 40.55 million shares valued at N5.27bn, while Zenith Bank transacted 34.87 million shares worth N4.47bn.

Foreign portfolio investment into Nigeria rose sharply in the first quarter of 2026, reaching $6.03bn as international investors increased their exposure to Nigerian equities and other financial assets.

The figure represents a 14.4 per cent increase from the $5.27bn recorded in the preceding quarter, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Q1 2026 Economic Report.

Portfolio investment was by far the largest component of Nigeria’s $7.22bn financial liabilities during the quarter, highlighting the growing role of foreign investors in the country’s securities markets.

The latest data also shows a widening gap between portfolio and direct investment, with foreign portfolio flows almost six times the $1.03bn recorded as direct investment liabilities during the period.

Direct investment liabilities fell by 7.09 per cent quarter-on-quarter, while other investment liabilities stood at $220m.

The divergence suggests that a larger share of foreign capital entering Nigeria during the quarter was directed towards tradable financial assets rather than investments involving longer-term ownership or operational commitments.

The CBN attributed the increase in portfolio investment largely to higher purchases of Nigerian equities by foreign investors.

The stronger inflow came against the backdrop of improved external sector conditions during the quarter, with total foreign exchange inflows rising 13.26 per cent to $31.34bn from $27.67bn in the fourth quarter of 2025.

At the same time, foreign exchange outflows declined 11.78 per cent to $11.01bn.

The combination produced a net foreign exchange inflow of $20.33bn, significantly higher than the $15.19bn recorded in the previous quarter.

Autonomous sources accounted for $21.15bn of total FX inflows, representing a 23.90 per cent increase quarter-on-quarter.

The CBN said net inflows from autonomous sources reached $17.53bn, more than six times the $2.80bn recorded through the CBN and banking system combined.

Nigeria’s stronger external position was also reflected in the movement of its foreign exchange reserves.

The country’s external reserves rose to $48.35bn at the end of March 2026, compared with $45.75bn at the end of December 2025.

The reserve level provided about 8.84 months of import cover, substantially above the three-month benchmark commonly used to assess external liquidity adequacy.

However, the surge in portfolio investment also increased Nigeria’s foreign financial obligations.

Total international financial liabilities rose to $226.58bn from $220.82bn during the quarter.

Portfolio investment liabilities increased 14.08 per cent to $58.01bn, making them the fastest-growing component of Nigeria’s international financial liabilities.

Direct investment liabilities remained the largest category at $90.38bn, while other investment liabilities stood at $78.03bn.

Against international financial assets of $127.34bn, Nigeria’s net international investment position remained negative at $99.24bn

The increase in portfolio flows coincided with strong demand for Nigerian naira-denominated securities during the quarter.

Central Bank of Nigeria Open Market Operations bills attracted N35.62tnin subscriptions against N9tn offered, while Nigerian treasury bills received N24.93tn in bids against N7.97tn offered.

The heavy demand for government and central bank securities indicates strong investor appetite for Nigerian fixed-income instruments, although the CBN’s financial account data also shows that equities accounted for much of the increase in portfolio investment during the quarter.

The development comes as Nigeria seeks to deepen foreign participation in its domestic capital markets and improve access to international capital.

The growing foreign participation in Nigeria’s securities market comes against a sizeable public debt stock.

Nigeria’s consolidated public debt stood at N159.27tn at the end of December 2025, representing 36.94 per cent of GDP.

Dangote oil refinery has maintained its position as a key supplier of fuel to Europe following disruptions to Middle East exports.

This further highlights its growing influence on global fuel markets and generating record profits ahead of its stock market debut.

With ramping up fuel exports this year during the crisis enabled the refinery to deliver a net profit of $1.82 billion in the first half of 2026 on revenue of more than $13 billion, according to its prospectus, compared with a loss of $476 million in all of 2025, as conflict-related disruptions lifted refining margins and increased demand for its exports.

Established to end Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel, Dangote’s refinery is increasingly influencing global fuel flows at a time of market stress a trend that is set to continue as disruptions to Middle East supply persist and the refinery expands capacity.

“Dangote’s role is likely to increase materially in coming years”, Janiv Shah of Rystad Energy told media. “The largest structural impact will be on gasoline. Jet fuel and diesel also becoming increasingly important”.

After Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S.-Israeli attacks at the end of February, Europe lost a quarter of its supply of diesel and jet fuel. The resulting drop in Middle East exports has helped send fuel inventories in Northwest Europe’s oil trading hub to their lowest in 12 years.

Europe imported about 80,000 barrels per day of jet fuel from Dangote during the second quarter, equivalent to roughly 13 per cent of the resulting supply shortfall and making the refinery the continent’s largest supplier of the fuel, according to Kpler data. Only the U.S. provided more of Europe’s imports than Nigeria in that time on a country level, the data show.

“Without Dangote, Europe would still have sourced fuel but at a higher clearing price. There might have also been deeper inventory draws”, Rystad’s Shah highlighted.

Refinery helps to ease tight market. Dangote also boosted exports of diesel and gasoil, which like jet fuel are among a group of fuels known as middle distillates.

Dangote’s diesel and gasoil exports rose by 23 per cent to 48,000 bpd in 2026 to date, according to Kpler.

“These barrels have increasingly supplied West Africa and Europe, where they have helped ease an otherwise tight middle-distillate market”, Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia said.

The refinery’s impact on middle distillates adds to the significant influence Dangote has had on gasoline flows since it started operating in 2024.

Dangote produced roughly 270,000 to 300,000 bpd of gasoline in 2026 to date, according to Kpler. As a result, Nigeria’s imports of the fuel have tumbled from around 400,000 bpd in 2024 to just 83,000 bpd this year.

Europe traditionally supplied most of that volume, in a trade that was once worth $17 billion a year.

Dangote is seeking to double capacity to 1.4 million bpd by 2029, which would make it the joint-largest refinery in the world alongside Reliance’s Jamnagar facility in India.

Asked about the refinery’s expansion plans, Chief Executive David Bird told Reuters that a new diesel hydrotreater would allow Dangote to produce a wider range of diesel specifications for export.

“We need to make sure we can land our product in any market, anywhere in the world, at any time of year,” he said.