Quest Bank records 29% revenue growth, 23% profit rise

Quest Bank records 29% revenue growth, 23% profit riseQuest Merchant Bank delivered a strong financial performance for the 2025 financial year, with gross earnings increasing by 29 per cent year-on-year to N81.5bn, driven by growth in net interest income and stronger asset yields. Profit before tax expanded by 23 per cent, while operating efficiency improved significantly, with the bank’s cost-to-income ratio improving by 2.3 per cent.

The shareholders approved the bank’s audited financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025, commending the institution for its strong financial performance, successful recapitalisation, and long-term strategic direction.

The approvals were given during the bank’s 11th Annual General Meeting held recently.

The AGM followed the successful acquisition of the bank by Everquest Acquisition LLP, a special purpose vehicle led by Custodian Investments Plc, as well as the attainment of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s N50bn minimum capital requirement ahead of the regulatory dea

The bank also maintained strong liquidity and asset quality indicators while further strengthening its governance, risk management, and compliance frameworks in response to evolving regulatory expectations and market dynamics.

The Acting Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, Afolabi Olorode, stated that the bank’s performance reflected a deliberate strategy anchored on operational excellence, client-centricity, innovation, and disciplined execution.

He said, “Our strategic focus remains clear: to build a leading merchant bank anchored on strong capital, innovation, execution excellence, and deep client relationships. With our enhanced capital base and the launch of our 2026–2030 strategic plan, Quest Merchant Bank is exceptionally well-positioned to support critical sectors of the economy while delivering superior value to shareholders and stakeholders alike.”

Olorode added that the bank would continue to deepen its capabilities across corporate and investment banking, wealth management, and global markets, while accelerating investments in technology, talent development, and operational resilience.

Shareholders at the AGM also approved key resolutions, including the payment of dividends, election of directors, and amendments to the bank’s memorandum and articles of association.

In line with its commitment to inclusive development and sustainable impact, the bank expanded its corporate social responsibility initiatives during the year through financial literacy programmes, youth empowerment initiatives, healthcare interventions, and inclusive education partnerships.

Looking ahead, Quest Merchant Bank reaffirmed its commitment to strategic expansion, innovation, and sustainable finance while continuing to support Nigeria’s economic transformation agenda through strategic financial intermediation and advisory services.

Dangote may benefit from Russia’s jet fuel export ban

Aliko Dangote

 

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery could gain stronger positioning in the global aviation fuel market following Russia’s decision to extend its ban on jet fuel exports until 30 November 2026, amid sustained attacks on its refining infrastructure.

Russia announced the restriction on Monday, saying the move is aimed at securing domestic aviation fuel supply as Ukrainian drone strikes continue to disrupt key refineries and export facilities. The ban follows earlier curbs on gasoline exports introduced in April.

Although Russia is not a major exporter of jet fuel, the development adds to concerns about tightening global aviation fuel supply, especially at a time when demand is recovering and several supply routes remain under geopolitical pressure.

The disruption comes against the backdrop of broader instability in global energy markets, including tensions in the Middle East, which have already strained refining output and shifted trade flows towards alternative suppliers.

In recent months, Europe has increasingly turned to the Atlantic Basin, including West Africa, to meet jet fuel demand shortfalls caused by reduced supplies from traditional Gulf sources.

Against this backdrop, the Dangote refinery has emerged as one of the notable new entrants reshaping global fuel trade flows.

Recent industry reports show that the refinery has already exported large volumes of aviation fuel to Europe. In one of its strongest export windows, Dangote shipped about 1.1 billion litres of jet fuel to Europe between March and April 2026, while also supplying more than 95 per cent of Nigeria’s domestic Jet A1 demand.

The refinery is also reported to have exported about 615 million litres of aviation fuel in April alone, as part of a broader 1.66 billion litres of refined products shipped during the period, driven by strong international demand and disruptions in global supply chains.

It was observed that the combination of rising geopolitical risks and refinery disruptions in major producing regions is gradually strengthening the role of new large-scale refiners such as Dangote in global aviation fuel trade.

While Russia’s export restriction may not significantly alter global jet fuel volumes on its own, it contributes to a broader tightening environment that supports alternative suppliers with export capacity.

Already, market reports indicate that Dangote is benefiting from strong demand in Europe and other regions seeking reliable non-traditional sources of jet fuel amid uncertainty around Middle East supply routes and refinery outages.

Russia had announced that the restriction was aimed at stabilising domestic fuel supply and ensuring adequate availability for its aviation sector. According to Reuters, the measure applies to jet fuel sold through exchange markets and commercial channels but excludes supplies covered under intergovernmental agreements and fuel already in transit or customs clearance.

The ban marks one of Moscow’s most significant interventions in its refined products market in recent years, coming after a series of earlier restrictions on gasoline exports introduced in April as pressure on its refining system intensifies.

According to reports, Ukrainian drone strikes have repeatedly targeted Russian refineries and export-linked infrastructure over the past year, forcing temporary shutdowns and reducing processing capacity at several major plants. The attacks are part of Kyiv’s strategy to weaken Russia’s energy revenues, which remain central to its war financing.

Customs seize N1.3bn smuggled vegetable oil products

Customs. Bashir Adewale AdeniyiThe Nigeria Customs Service said it recorded about 65 seizures of vegetable oil products in 2025 and another 23 in 2026, with a combined duty-paid value of approximately N1.314bn.

This is even as the service announced that it has intensified efforts to combat the smuggling of vegetable oil into the country, with plans to launch intelligence-driven special operations aimed at protecting local investments, preserving jobs and supporting the growth of the agricultural value chain.

According to a statement on Wednesday, the Comptroller-General of Customs, Adewale Adeniyi, disclosed this on Friday during a meeting with stakeholders in the vegetable oil industry in Abuja.

Adeniyi said the service remains committed to tackling smuggling through strategic enforcement, intelligence gathering and stakeholder collaboration, adding that the NCS and operators in the vegetable oil sector share a common objective of protecting legitimate businesses, encouraging investment and strengthening the national economy

The CGC explained that addressing smuggling requires sustained cooperation between government agencies and the private sector, particularly in sectors that contribute significantly to employment generation and economic development.

He also called on stakeholders to support enforcement efforts by providing credible intelligence on smuggling routes and illicit trade activities. “Fighting smuggling is a continuous process that requires intelligence, policy support, and collaboration. We value constructive engagement with stakeholders and will continue to strengthen our partnership with the private sector,” he stated.

Also speaking, the Deputy Comptroller-General in charge of Enforcement, Inspection and Investigation, Timi Bomodi, highlighted the service’s achievements in curbing the illegal importation of vegetable oil products.

Bomodi disclosed that Customs recorded several seizures across key border corridors and assured stakeholders that surveillance would be intensified in vulnerable locations.

“We recorded about 65 seizures of vegetable oil products in 2025 and another 23 seizures in 2026, with a combined Duty Paid Value of approximately N1.314bn,” he said.

He noted that many of the seizures were made along major smuggling corridors, including Seme and Idiroko, stressing that surveillance would also be strengthened in other identified vulnerable locations.

Leading the industry delegation, the Founder of the Plantation Owners Forum of Nigeria, Dr Fatai Afolabi, commended the NCS for creating a platform for dialogue while drawing attention to the need to clamp down on vegetable oil smuggling into the country.

“Smuggling of vegetable oil will undermine local production, discouraging investment and threatening thousands of jobs across the value chain,” Afolabi stated.

FCMB names economist Bismark Rewane board chairman

First City Monument Bank Limited has appointed Bismarck Rewane as a Non-Executive Director and Chairman of its Board of Directors following approval from the Central Bank of Nigeria.

It stated in a statement that the appointment brings one of Nigeria’s leading economists to the board of the lender as it seeks to strengthen its governance and strategic leadership.

Rewane has more than 40 years of experience spanning macroeconomic research, investment banking and strategic management. He is the Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, a financial advisory and economic research firm.

A Fellow of the Nigerian Economic Society, Rewane previously held leadership positions at International Merchant Bank Nigeria Limited and First National Bank of Chicago.

He graduated from the University of Ibadan with a degree in Economics and is a Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria as well as an Associate of the Institute of Chartered Bankers of England and Wales.

His boardroom experience includes serving on the boards of several companies, including Guinness Nigeria Plc, British American Tobacco, Henkel Nigeria Limited, Top Feeds Nigeria Limited and Africa Infrastructure Plus Partners.

Rewane also served as a member of the Presidential Steering Committee for the Resolution of the Global Economic Crisis.

In addition, he has completed executive management programmes at institutions including the Oxford International Capital Markets Programme, the Euromoney Institute of Finance and IMD Lausanne, Switzerland.

Commenting on the appointment, the Board of Directors of First City Monument Bank said it welcomed Rewane and expressed confidence that his experience would support the bank’s growth objectives.

The board stated, “The bank is confident that his expertise in macroeconomics, corporate governance, and strategic management, together with the Bank’s stronger capital base, will strengthen its leadership and help drive the next phase of growth while continuing to deliver value to stakeholders.

NCAA Grounds Aircraft, Probes Unauthorized Return to Lagos

NCAA grounds aircraft, suspends permit after incident, unauthorised  departure to Lagos
The Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) has grounded a privately operated aircraft and launched an investigation following a dramatic emergency landing on a roadway near Asaba, Delta State.
According to preliminary details released by the Authority on Wednesday, the incident occurred on June 10, 2026, when the aircraft aborted its landing at Asaba Airport after executing a missed approach at about 7:43 a.m. local time.
The aircraft subsequently landed on a road in the Ogwashi-Uku area, raising concerns among aviation regulators.
However, all four crew members on board were safely evacuated from the aircraft and transported to Asaba by road, with no injuries reported.
In a development that has drawn regulatory scrutiny, the NCAA disclosed that the aircraft later departed the scene at approximately 11:02 GMT and flew back to Lagos without obtaining the required approval. Air Traffic Control, the Authority noted, was only informed after the aircraft had already taken off.
The NCAA described the action as a violation of the Nigeria Civil Aviation Regulations and confirmed that a full investigation is underway.
Upon its arrival in Lagos, the aircraft was immediately grounded, while the flight crew have been placed under regulatory review pending the outcome of ongoing inquiries.
The Authority also confirmed that it has notified the Nigerian Safety Investigation Bureau (NSIB) and is working with key stakeholders, including the Nigerian Airspace Management Agency and the aircraft operator, to determine the circumstances surrounding both the emergency landing and the Unauthorised departure.
As part of its initial enforcement measures, the NCAA has suspended the operator’s Permit for Non-Commercial Flights (PNCF).
It added that a comprehensive audit of the aircraft’s operational, maintenance, airworthiness, and flight records is in progress, with further actions to be taken in line with aviation regulations.
The NCAA reiterated its commitment to ensuring strict compliance with safety standards and maintaining the integrity of Nigeria’s aviation sector.
Fidelity Bank reaffirms support for MSMEs, drives growth agenda at SME forum

Photo caption: L-R: Divisional Head, Small and Medium-scale Enterprises (SMEs), Fidelity Bank Plc, Mrs. Ugochi Osinigwe; Executive Director, South, Fidelity Bank Plc, Mrs. Pamela Shodipo; and Representative of the President of the Port Harcourt Chamber of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (PHCCIMA) and Chairman of SMEs and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) Trade Group, Mr. Jack Daboikiabo; at the Fidelity Bank SME Quarterly Business Forum held in Port Harcourt, recently.
Leading financial institution, Fidelity Bank Plc, has reaffirmed its commitment to advancing the growth and sustainability of Micro, Small and Medium-scale Enterprises (MSMEs), positioning itself as a trusted partner beyond traditional banking and financing.
This commitment was reiterated by the bank’s management during a keynote address delivered by the Executive Director, South, Mrs. Pamela Shodipo, at the recently held SME Quarterly Business Forum in Port Harcourt, Rivers State.
The Forum, themed “Scaling Trade and Distribution of Businesses for Sustainable Growth,” brought together entrepreneurs, business owners, industry experts and customers for insightful discussions on strategies for expanding businesses, strengthening distribution networks and unlocking sustainable growth opportunities in Nigeria’s evolving marketplace.
In her address, Shodipo reiterated Fidelity Bank’s commitment to supporting SMEs beyond traditional banking and financing. She stated, “Our objective is clear: to help Nigerian enterprises grow, become more competitive and create sustainable value in their communities and the wider economy. We want to be more than a provider of funds; we want to be your trusted partner in growth,” she said.
Further emphasising the strategic importance of the host city, the bank’s Executive Director described Port Harcourt as a critical economic hub, with significant influence across trade, logistics, marine services, manufacturing, agriculture, and the energy sector.
“Port Harcourt occupies a strategic place in the economic life of Nigeria. It is a major commercial hub, a gateway to the South-South and a city whose influence extends across trade, logistics, marine services, manufacturing, agriculture and energy. Businesses here understand what it means to operate in a dynamic environment, respond to market demand quickly and keep commerce moving,” she said.
Shodipo maintained that, the Forum’s theme was particularly relevant given the vital role trade and distribution businesses play in connecting producers to consumers, supporting supply chains, creating jobs and sustaining livelihoods.
“Trade and distribution businesses play a critical role in the Nigerian economy. They connect producers to consumers, support supply chains, create jobs and sustain livelihoods. In the South-South, this role is even more significant because the region remains one of the vital arteries of commerce in Nigeria, with strong links to ports, industrial activity, wholesale trade and regional distribution networks,” she remarked.
The bank’s Executive Director also highlighted initiatives such as the Fidelity Nigeria International Trade and Creative Connect (FNITCC), which connects businesses to international markets like the UK and US, as well as partnerships with the Nigeria Export Promotion Council (NEPC) and Lagos Business School through the Export Management Programme, alongside the Fidelity SME Hub for advisory support.
In her remarks, Mrs. Ugochi Osinigwe, Divisional Head, Small and Medium-scale Enterprises, Fidelity Bank Plc, said the forum was designed to provide business owners with actionable insights and valuable networking opportunities that can accelerate growth.
“SMEs remain the backbone of Nigeria’s economy, and at Fidelity Bank, we are deliberate about creating platforms that expose entrepreneurs to knowledge, innovation and opportunities that help them build resilient and scalable businesses. This forum reflects our ongoing commitment to supporting SMEs beyond banking by equipping them with the tools and connections needed to thrive in today’s competitive environment,” Osinigwe said.
She encouraged participants to leverage the Bank’s various SME-focused initiatives, advisory services and digital solutions to strengthen their operations and position their businesses for long-term success.
Participants at the forum commended Fidelity Bank for creating a platform that addresses real business challenges and provided practical solutions.
One of the participants, Mr. Andy Macozi, praised the initiative, saying, “The forum was timely and informative. The discussions addressed challenges many business owners face daily, and I believe more entrepreneurs will benefit if Fidelity Bank continues to organize such seminars and knowledge-sharing sessions.”
Also speaking, Chief Uche Aham, an oil and marine services entrepreneur, described the forum as insightful and impactful.
“I commend Fidelity Bank for bringing together business owners to learn and exchange ideas. The sessions were practical and insightful. It would also be helpful if participants could receive comprehensive materials from the forum for future reference and implementation,” he noted.
The Fidelity Bank SME Quarterly Business Forum is the latest of the bank’s initiatives aimed at empowering entrepreneurs, fostering innovation and driving sustainable economic development across Nigeria.
Ranked among the best banks in Nigeria, Fidelity Bank Plc is a full-fledged Commercial Deposit Money Bank serving over 10 million customers through digital banking channels, its 255 business offices in Nigeria and United Kingdom subsidiary, FidBank UK Limited.
The Bank is a recipient of multiple local and international awards, including the 2025 Development Bank of Nigeria (DBN) Innovation Award for MSME support; Best Retail and SME Bank Award from Independent Newspapers; Best Bank for Export & Trade Finance and Most Innovative Bank of the Year at the 2025 BusinessDay Banks and Financial Institutions (BAFI) Awards; and Nigeria’s Best Private Bank at the 2025 Euromoney Awards. The Bank also received the inaugural Most Improved Commercial Bank of the Year award by Nairametrics, the SME Bank of the Year award by NewsDirect, and the Straight-Through Processing (STP) Excellence Award by Citi Group, in addition to recognition by Global Brands Magazine for Excellence in Community Empowerment
FG opens $1bn AfCFTA fund for exporters

trade ministerThe Federal Government has reaffirmed its commitment to accelerating Nigeria’s export-led growth agenda under the African Continental Free Trade Area, unveiling opportunities for businesses to access a $1bn AfCFTA Adjustment Fund Credit Facility designed to boost production, competitiveness, and intra-African trade.

The Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, disclosed this on Tuesday during the second-quarter 2026 meeting of the AfCFTA Central Coordination Committee held in Abuja.

According to a statement issued by the ministry’s Head of Press and Public Relations, Obilor-Duru Augustina Okechi, Oduwole said the financing facility represented a major opportunity for Nigerian businesses seeking to expand operations, modernise production processes, and increase exports to African markets.

The statement read: “The Federal Government has reaffirmed its commitment to accelerating Nigeria’s export-led growth agenda under the African Continental Free Trade Area, unveiling opportunities for businesses to access a US$1 billion AfCFTA Adjustment Fund Credit Facility aimed at boosting production, competiti

She noted that despite the progress Nigeria had made in implementing the continental trade agreement, many local businesses continued to face obstacles that limited their ability to take advantage of the single African market.

“Many businesses still face challenges relating to export documentation, certification, standards compliance and market access,” the minister said.

She explained that the Federal Government was addressing these bottlenecks through enhanced trade facilitation measures, simplified AfCFTA guidance tools, stakeholder engagement programmes, and stronger collaboration with institutions such as the Nigeria Customs Service and the Nigerian Export Promotion Council.

Oduwole stressed the need to strengthen Nigeria’s legal and regulatory framework by domesticating key AfCFTA protocols, particularly the Digital Trade Protocol, to position the country as a major player in Africa’s growing digital economy.

The minister also highlighted some of the gains recorded in Nigeria’s AfCFTA implementation efforts. According to her, the expansion of Nigeria’s Air Cargo Corridor Initiative to Rwanda, increased collaboration with development partners and private sector players, as well as sustained engagement with state governments, were helping to deepen awareness and participation in the continental market.

In her welcome address and first-quarter update, the National Coordinator and Chief Executive Officer of the Nigeria AfCFTA Coordination Office, Mrs Patience Okala, congratulated Oduwole on her recent appointment as Chair of the AfCFTA Council of Ministers.

She described the development as evidence of Nigeria’s increasing influence in Africa’s trade integration process. Okala disclosed that recent AfCFTA sensitisation programmes held in Kano attracted more than 470 businesses, including significant participation from women-led enterprises.

She added that the newly introduced AfCFTA ABC Series was equipping businesses with practical knowledge on export procedures and helping them understand how to access opportunities within the continental market.

“The recent AfCFTA sensitisation engagements in Kano attracted more than 470 businesses, including strong participation by women-led enterprises. The newly launched AfCFTA ABC Series is helping businesses better understand export procedures and take advantage of opportunities within the continental market.”

Providing details of the financing initiative, Okala said the $1bn AfCFTA Adjustment Fund Credit Facility was targeted at large African businesses with a minimum financing capacity of $10m.

She revealed that the National AfCFTA Coordination Office was working closely with fund managers to facilitate access for eligible Nigerian companies and had begun assembling a pilot group of businesses to ensure that Nigeria maximised the opportunities provided by the facility.

Also speaking at the meeting, a Deputy Director at the Nigerian Export Promotion Council, Mr Njoku, reiterated that registration with the council remained compulsory for all exporters operating in Nigeria.

He announced that the registration process had been fully digitised, enabling businesses across the country to complete the exercise online. According to him, successful applicants receive an Exporter’s Certificate valid for two years, granting them access to incentives such as the Export Expansion Grant and the Export Development Fund.

Delivering the vote of thanks on behalf of the Permanent Secretary of the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment, Chris Osa Isokpunwu, the Director of Special Duties, Dr Simon Om-Ezomo, commended the AfCFTA Secretariat, the Nigeria Customs Service, government agencies, private sector operators and development partners for their continued support.

He emphasised the importance of sustained collaboration, stakeholder engagement, and effective implementation of policies to enable Nigeria to fully harness the benefits of the continental free trade agreement.

The meeting ended with renewed commitments from stakeholders to strengthen inter-agency cooperation, expand opportunities for women and youth entrepreneurs, increase the utilisation of AfCFTA market access provisions, and deepen Nigeria’s participation in regional and continental value chains.

Participants also reaffirmed their support for Nigeria’s preparations for major continental engagements scheduled for June and July 2026, with a shared objective of boosting exports, attracting investment, driving industrial growth, and creating jobs.

The African Continental Free Trade Area, which commenced trading in January 2021, is the world’s largest free trade area by number of participating countries, bringing together 54 African nations into a single market of more than 1.4 billion people with a combined Gross Domestic Product estimated at over $3tn.

Nigeria formally began trading under the AfCFTA Guided Trade Initiative in 2024 and has since intensified efforts to improve export readiness among businesses. Government officials have repeatedly argued that the agreement presents a significant opportunity for the country to diversify away from oil dependence, increase non-oil exports and integrate local manufacturers into regional value chains.

However, stakeholders have continued to identify challenges such as limited access to trade finance, inadequate knowledge of export procedures, standards compliance issues and logistics constraints as barriers preventing many businesses, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, from fully benefiting from the agreement.

The newly unveiled $1bn AfCFTA Adjustment Fund Credit Facility is expected to address some of these financing gaps and enhance the competitiveness of African businesses within the continental market.

NGX gains N830bn as Airtel Africa leads market rally

stock exchange NSE

The Nigerian Exchange Limited sustained its upward trajectory on Tuesday, as renewed buying interest in telecom heavyweights and select financial stocks lifted the headline market indices by 0.53 per cent.

Driven by intensive position-taking, the benchmark all-share index advanced significantly to close the day at exactly 244,697.62 points. Concurrently, the total value of listed equities expanded by N830bn to settle at an impressive equities market capitalisation of N156.94tn.

Market analysts attributed the bullish momentum to portfolio rebalancing by institutional investors seeking out resilient defensive counters amid broader macroeconomic adjustments.

While the fixed income market capitalisation experienced a marginal contraction of 0.06 per cent to close at N56.74tn, investors showed strong enthusiasm in alternative windows. This was particularly evident in the Exchange Traded Products market capitalisation, which by 4.40 per cent to settle the trading day at N103.00bn.

A granular look at the day’s performance showed a highly competitive gainers’ log dominated by the telecommunications and financial sectors, as visualised in the official daily snapshot.

Leading the premium leaderboard was telecom giant Airtel Africa Plc, which hit the maximum daily regulatory ceiling with a 10.00 per cent increase to close at N4,021.20 per share. It was followed closely by International Energy Insurance Plc, which emerged as the second-highest gainer of the day by advancing 9.90 per cent to finish at N8.77 per share.

The remaining spots on the prime leaderboard were swept by strong banking and insurance counters. Abbey Mortgage Bank Plc spiked 9.76 per cent to close at N11.25, while its sub-sector peer, Infinity Trust Mortgage Bank Plc, grew 9.63 per cent to settle at N10.25.

Rounding out the top five gainers was financial services powerhouse, First HoldCo Plc, which advanced 8.49 per cent to finish the trading session at N69.00 per share.

Market operators continue to advise retail investors to maintain positions in fundamentally sound assets as the trading week progresses.

 

Oil prices fall on Iran-US peace optimism

An oil platform

Oil prices tumbled on Tuesday as growing optimism over a possible diplomatic breakthrough between Iran and the United States triggered a sharp sell-off in global crude markets, with Brent sliding toward the $91 per barrel mark.

According to the Economic Times, Brent crude fell by over three per cent during intraday trading, while WTI dropped nearly four per cent, as markets reacted to reports that a draft Iran–US peace agreement had been submitted for review in Washington and described as “preliminarily acceptable”.

The development immediately weakened the geopolitical risk premium that had kept oil prices elevated in recent weeks, particularly following heightened tensions that disrupted sentiment around Middle East supply routes and the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz.

The strait, through which roughly 20 per cent of global crude shipments pass, had been a key focus for traders after earlier disruptions triggered a sharp rally that pushed oil prices above $120 per barrel in late February.

At the time, fears of prolonged supply shocks sent global energy markets into panic buying. Tuesday’s decline therefore marks a significant reversal, as traders began pricing in the possibility that easing geopolitical tensions could stabilise supply flows and reduce the likelihood of further disruptions.

Experts said the market is now reacting less to immediate supply concerns and more to expectations of diplomatic progress, although they warn that sentiment remains highly sensitive to any setback in negotiations.

Any breakdown in talks, they note, could quickly reverse the current price trend given the still-fragile security environment in the Gulf region.

The Economic Times notes that energy markets reacted swiftly to shifting geopolitical signals and easing fears over supply disruption.

Oil traders said the combination of easing geopolitical fears and shifting supply data continued to drive volatility in global crude markets.

In Nigeria, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited recorded an over 70 per cent rise in revenue and profit. The Dangote Refinery also benefited from high fuel exports, but households are enduring higher fuel prices, raising inflation pressures.

However, the conflict involving Iran led to a sharp rise in fuel costs, impacting Nigeria’s inflation figures negatively. It is expected that a further crash in oil prices would translate to cheaper fuel for Nigerians.

Nigeria’s foreign debt to hit $72.6bn after 2027 polls – IMF

IMF

Nigeria’s public external debt is projected to rise by $20.7bn by 2027, the country’s election year, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The IMF disclosed this in its 2026 Article IV Consultation report on Nigeria released on Tuesday, projecting that public external debt would increase from $51.9bn in 2025 to $72.6bn by 2027.

The projected increase represents a 39.9 per cent rise within two years and underscores growing concerns over the country’s debt burden despite recent improvements in macroeconomic stability.

The Fund noted that Nigeria’s next presidential election would take place in January 2027 and warned that spending pressures associated with rising poverty, food insecurity and the election cycle could widen fiscal deficits and increase borrowing requirements.

“Spending pressures from elevated poverty and food insecurity, including in the run-up to the elections, could widen fiscal deficit and increase financing needs,” the IMF stated.

According to the Fund’s Balance of Payments projections, public external debt is expected to rise from $51.9bn in 2025 to $66.5bn in 2026 before climbing further to $72.6bn in 2027.

The IMF’s projection broadly aligns with the latest Debt Management Office data, which showed that Nigeria’s public external debt stood at $51.86bn as of December 31, 2025.

Based on the Fund’s forecast, the debt stock would increase by about $20.74bn between the end of 2025 and 2027.

Beyond public debt, the IMF projected that Nigeria’s total external debt stock, which includes both public and private sector obligations, would rise from $109.3bn in 2025 to $119.3bn in 2026 and further to $132.0bn in 2027.

This indicates that total external debt could increase by $22.7bn between 2025 and 2027, with $12.7bn of the increase occurring in 2027 alone.

The report showed that public external debt would remain elevated relative to the size of the economy and export earnings. Public external debt is projected to increase from 17.9 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 18.7 per cent in 2027. As a share of exports of goods and services, it is expected to rise from 82.9 per cent in 2025 to 104.3 per cent by 2027.

The IMF also projected a deterioration in debt service indicators over the period.

Public external debt service due is expected to increase from 8.1 per cent of exports of goods and services in 2025 to 8.8 per cent in 2027, after easing to 5.0 per cent in 2026. The Fund further projected that interest payments on public debt would rise from $2bn in 2025 to $3bn by 2027.

At the Federal Government level, debt servicing is expected to continue consuming more than half of government revenue. The IMF estimated that interest payments absorbed 53.2 per cent of Federal Government revenue in 2025 and projected the ratio at 53.7 per cent in 2026 before easing marginally to 52.4 per cent in 2027.

The report highlighted the growing role of external borrowing in financing government operations. According to the IMF, financing for the 2026 consolidated government deficit is expected to rely more on external than domestic sources, with plans including a proposed $5bn total return swap with an international bank and another Eurobond issuance.

The Fund expressed reservations about the proposed swap arrangement, noting that it carried borrowing costs comparable to Eurobond yields and could expose the government to margin calls if the value of the naira-denominated collateral declines.

“The arrangement exposes the government to margin calls if the FX value of the naira securities drops (naira depreciation, higher interest rates) and could thus give rise to political constraints on monetary or exchange rate policy,” the IMF said.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the IMF warned Nigeria to tread carefully in pursuing a proposed $5bn Total Return Swap financing arrangement with First Abu Dhabi Bank, describing such structures as opaque and potentially risky despite the country’s improved access to international capital markets.

The IMF Resident Representative for Nigeria, Christian Ebeke, disclosed this on Tuesday during a virtual press briefing on the Fund’s 2026 Article IV Consultation Report on Nigeria.

Speaking on the proposed transaction, Ebeke said, “We say in the report, and our view is that the transaction and these types of structures carry risks. Usually, they are opaque. So, the terms are not always very transparent when we review these instruments across countries.”

His comments come weeks after the Senate approved the Federal Government’s request to raise up to $5bn through a Total Return Swap arrangement with a Middle Eastern bank, widely reported to be First Abu Dhabi Bank.

Ebeke noted that beyond concerns over transparency, such financing arrangements could expose countries to additional financial risks if underlying assets lose value or exchange rates move adversely. “They also carry risk, as we flag in the report: the margin calls in the case of the value of the asset drops or the currency depreciates,” he said.

According to him, Nigeria currently has alternative funding options that may be less complicated and more transparent. “We think that Nigeria has market access. Nigeria can issue euro bonds to finance the deficit. And we also think that there are other avenues for Nigeria to raise funds, including on concessional terms,” Ebeke added.

While noting that the Fund did not yet have detailed information on the proposed swap structure, he urged authorities to closely monitor the transaction’s potential risks. “At this point, we don’t have any further information on the TRS. But our view is that it carries risk, and it’s important to monitor those risks very, very carefully,” he said.

The IMF’s caution formed part of a broader assessment in which the Fund acknowledged that economic reforms undertaken by the Nigerian government over the past three years had strengthened macroeconomic stability and improved the country’s ability to withstand external shocks.

Despite the projected increase in debt, the Fund maintained that Nigeria’s sovereign debt position remains manageable. “The risk of sovereign stress is assessed as moderate,” the IMF stated, noting that public debt fell to 36.1 per cent of GDP in 2025 from 39.3 per cent in 2024 due to stronger growth, naira appreciation and improvements in macroeconomic stability.

However, it warned that weak revenue mobilisation, expenditure slippages, contingent liabilities and election-related fiscal pressures could worsen the debt outlook if not carefully managed.

The Fund urged the government to strengthen fiscal transparency, improve budget implementation, sustain revenue mobilisation reforms and avoid spending outside the budget framework in order to contain borrowing needs and preserve debt sustainability.

At the virtual briefing, the IMF Mission Chief for Nigeria, Axel Schimmelpfennig, said recent reforms had enhanced resilience and helped the country manage the economic fallout from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. “One of the key messages from the report is that strong reforms over the past three years have improved macroeconomic outcomes and improved resilience,” he said.

According to Schimmelpfennig, higher global oil prices resulting from the conflict could improve Nigeria’s export earnings and government revenues, but would also create inflationary pressures through increased fuel, food and fertiliser costs.

He said the IMF recommended a broadly neutral fiscal stance for 2026, with the budget deficit remaining largely unchanged relative to 2025 to support macroeconomic stability and complement the Central Bank of Nigeria’s efforts to curb inflation.

“We continue to think that the flexible exchange rate regime is serving Nigeria well, and we’ve even seen an appreciation against the US dollar since the start of the year,” he said.

The IMF also projected that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 4.1 per cent in 2026 and 4.3 per cent in 2027, although these forecasts were lower than previous projections due to the economic consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. “For 2026, we project real GDP growth to be 4.1 per cent. And for 2027, we see some acceleration to 4.3 per cent,” Schimmelpfennig stated.

He stressed that monetary policy should remain restrictive for longer than previously anticipated, given renewed inflationary pressures stemming from global developments.

The IMF chief further urged the government to continue expanding its cash transfer programme to cushion the impact of economic shocks on vulnerable households while sustaining reforms aimed at improving infrastructure, electricity supply, security, agriculture, education and healthcare.

The Fund also reiterated its support for efforts to increase government revenue, noting that Nigeria remains one of the countries with the lowest revenue-to-GDP ratios globally.

Schimmelpfennig said strengthening tax administration and, over time, aligning some tax rates with those of peer countries would be necessary to create fiscal space for development spending, while ensuring that vulnerable citizens are protected through targeted social interventions.

Obi tackles FG

In a related development, the 2027 presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, Peter Obi, has criticised President Bola Tinubu’s administration over what he described as excessive borrowing and poor fiscal accountability.

Obi said Nigeria’s total public debt has risen to about N200tn, which he attributed to what he called “imprudent governance” under the current administration. He said the debt level represents an increase of over N100tn in three years, contrasting it with the approximately N49tn accumulated during the eight-year administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari.

The former Labour Party presidential flagbearer in the 2023 election stated this in a statement posted on his X handle on Tuesday, saying the situation reflected a lack of accountability and transparency in the management of borrowed funds.

“President Bola Tinubu’s administration has engaged in remarkably imprudent borrowing, escalating Nigeria’s total debt to approximately N200tn. This represents an increase of over N100tn within a mere three years, a stark contrast to the roughly N49tn accumulated during President Muhammadu Buhari’s eight-year tenure, which would have projected to around N80tn.

“As millions of Nigerians grapple with the shock of this unsustainable debt accumulation, the situation is exacerbated by the government’s reckless approach to borrowing and a profound absence of accountability and transparency in the utilisation of these funds,” he said.

However, the Presidency has dismissed claims by Obi that the administration of President Bola Tinubu has accumulated more than N100tn in debt within three years, attributing the increase in Nigeria’s debt profile largely to the impact of naira devaluation.

Special Assistant to the President on Social Media, Dada Olusegun, stated this on Tuesday while responding to Obi’s criticism of the government’s borrowing record and fiscal management.

“For the umpteenth time, Nigeria’s obvious debt portfolio increase over the past three years under the administration of President Tinubu is not a function of new borrowings rather; vast majority of them are mathematical impacts of currency devaluation which you also promised to implement during your campaigns,” Olusegun said.

Olusegun also maintained that Nigeria’s public debt figures include obligations incurred by state governments over the years and should not be attributed solely to the Federal Government.

Questioning Obi’s interpretation of the debt figures, the presidential aide said fluctuations in exchange rates significantly affect the naira value of external debt. The aide further argued that Nigeria’s debt stock in dollar terms had remained relatively stable.