Importation of about 39.9 million barrels of crude at a combined cost of approximately $4.43 billion in May and June by Dangote refinery indicates that Nigeria’s crude-for-naira policy has failed.

Oil and gas expert and public affairs analyst, Victor Udoh, while speaking to the policy uncertainties argued that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery would not have spent nearly $5 billion importing crude oil within two months if the initiative was working as intended.

He stated these while speaking in an interview with ARISE NEWS on Thursday.

Udoh said the refinery imported about 39.9 million barrels of crude at a combined cost of approximately $4.43 billion in May and June, insisting the figures demonstrated that the policy had failed to guarantee adequate domestic crude supply for local refining.

“The crude for Naira has not worked. I’m going to speak with facts this morning. Empirical facts, Dangote Refinery saying that they imported about 21 million barrels at the cost of $2.6 billion in May alone.

There’s another one here that says they imported about 18.9 million barrels at the cost of $1.830 billion in June alone. That’s close to $5 billion they spent on bringing crude in, in the month of May and June. So it shows you, if the crude for Naira is working, they will not spend about $5 billion in two months to bring in crude.”

He said the continued importation of crude by the Dangote refinery raised serious questions about the implementation of the government’s crude-for-naira arrangement. “The big question now is, what quantity does Dangote get in Naira for crude exchange? Then the second question is, what quantity does it not get? If we get that question right, then we’ll be able to determine, are we supposed to still be available for the push and pull of the global economic reality of oil and gas?”

Udoh urged the federal government to increase crude supplies to the refinery under the policy if existing allocations were inadequate. “If the quantity you’re selling for Naira and crude is not sufficient, please kindly increase it so that we will have this product at our stations at available price.”

On concerns over Nigeria’s recent improvement in crude oil production, he dismissed suggestions that official production figures were being exaggerated. “First and foremost, I want to come to the last statement to say that there is no propaganda regarding the quantity of oil Nigeria is producing.”

Udoh explained that Nigeria’s long-standing production challenges had been caused mainly by crude theft. “The inability of Nigeria as a country to produce oil to its optimal is not the availability of the product within the region or non-availability within the wells. It has always been a product of vandalism or other criminalities that have hampered production to the point of calculation.”

According to him, improved protection of oil transportation facilities had contributed to the country’s gradual production increase. “What has happened is that a significant improvement has occurred in the process of transportation of oil from production to calculation since that has been addressed significantly, then we can look at the production possibilities.”

While acknowledging that Nigeria was approaching its OPEC production quota, Udoh emphasised that the country was still below its own budget benchmark for 2026. “We have had an arithmetical progression, not geometric, it must be noted that the budget of 2026 is pegged at 1.84. It means that we may exceed OPEC quota. We have not met our own target.”

He also expressed concern over the speed at which changes in international crude prices were reflected at filling stations. “The challenge is, how quickly will our market or our pump at the filling station respond to either drop in price or increase in price?”

Udoh stressed that regulators had a responsibility to ensure that investors did not exploit market conditions at the expense of consumers. “The regulators must be up and doing for there to be transparency in pricing, because every investor seeks to maximise profits, but the regulator helps keep the investor in check.”

He acknowledged that the Dangote refinery had significantly improved Nigeria’s energy security. “It’s a great investment. It’s responded to our problems that we could not respond to. But the regulator must be efficient and effective in making sure that the rules that govern the process of purchase.”

Udoh argued that long-standing crude swap agreements were undermining the effectiveness of the crude-for-naira policy. “Most of our crude are incumbent already in swaps. There are swaps that were signed many years ago that take the crude out.”

He noted that fuel prices had not remained completely static, pointing to variations in pump prices across retail outlets. “It is not very correct that there were not fluctuations in prices. I noticed that there was 125 Naira differentiation in some instances, and I personally bought 129 the day before yesterday, while before now I’ve bought 152. So there was differentiation. But how quickly will this differentiation reflect?”

The regulator of the midstream and downstream petroleum sector has told The PUNCH exclusively that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has not violated any provision of the Petroleum Industry Act by opting to sell fuel in dollars instead of naira.

Multiple senior sources within the regulatory agency, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the refinery has the right to recover its costs if it has been purchasing crude oil in dollars.

According to the officials, the Petroleum Industry Act allows operators to earn returns on their investments and recover eligible costs.

“It’s a pretty straightforward issue. The naira-for-crude deal is not to Dangote’s advantage right now. They are sourcing a lot offshore. And with the crisis in the Middle East, the refinery has to recover costs now. It has to survive.

“Basically, to be fair to Alhaji Aliko Dangote, he has tried, if you look at it. He has absorbed a lot. But maybe he has reached a breaking point. So he has to do stuff to recover costs. And that’s why he wants to share that burden with off-takers,” one source said.

Another official told our correspondent that the PIA permits operators that incur costs in dollars to recover those costs in the same currency.

“If you study the PIA relevant schedules and provisions, when it comes to tariffs, you can recover your costs in dollars if that’s what you’ve spent. So, it’s clear. That is the case. There’s nothing wrong with what the Dangote refinery has done. That’s why you’ve not heard any hoopla, even from major off-takers. Dangote is incurring costs in dollars. So what do you want him to do?” the official said.

Another source urged authorities in the upstream sector, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, to address the challenges affecting the naira-for-crude arrangement.

“We have identified the gaps from the refinery, and it is for crude suppliers to do the needful supply. It is between the refinery and the dominant crude market supplier, which is the NNPC. Why are they not supplying the refinery? Why does it have to do the dominant purchase offshore? That’s why he has to recover his cost in dollars. It’s simple. The PIA doesn’t have an issue with that. It’s tariffing,” the source stated.

On Monday, the Dangote refinery announced that it would begin quoting ex-depot prices for petrol, diesel and aviation fuel in dollars for gantry and coastal transactions.

In a message to marketers on Monday, the company said, “Following our email on the 9th of July, 2026, regarding the transition from Naira to United States Dollars, please note that all issued Naira Coastal and Gantry PFIs/Deal Recaps are now invalid, and no payments should be made against them.”

Under the new pricing schedule, petrol sold through the gantry will cost $0.779 per litre, diesel $1.087 per litre, and aviation fuel $0.942 per litre, while coastal PMS supplies will sell for $1,044.62 per metric tonne.

The company, however, clarified that the new pricing arrangement does not apply to liquefied petroleum gas. Following the announcement, depot owners across major petroleum hubs began adjusting their loading prices as marketers factored in possible changes in replacement costs.

Pricing data from petroleumprice.ng showed that petrol prices increased by as much as N113 per litre at some depots, while diesel prices rose by up to N150 per litre in some locations.

Petroleum products marketers rejected the decision, arguing that they could not source scarce dollars to buy products that would ultimately be sold to Nigerians in naira.

Defending the decision, senior management sources at the Dangote Group told The PUNCH that the company had accumulated a large volume of requests for dollars from crude suppliers within and outside Nigeria because the refinery was not receiving sufficient crude from the NNPC under the naira-for-crude arrangement.

The sources added that the renewed tensions in the Middle East, which pushed oil prices to about $80 per barrel, had increased the refinery’s need for dollars to import crude and purchase supplies from local private producers.

According to the sources, the refinery has faced significant challenges selling fuel in naira while buying crude in dollars, adding that companies operating in free zones are permitted to sell their products in foreign currency.

The company said it had incurred substantial losses while waiting for dollar allocations and could no longer absorb the cost.

“Do you know how much we have lost waiting for the allocation of dollars? We can’t be subsidising the country after the government has withdrawn the subsidy. We are in a free zone, and that’s how it’s normally done. When we sell in naira, we are not being given dollars.

“We have a huge accumulation of requests for dollars piling up, and we are being given very little crude against the naira. It is not our fault. We are buying products in dollars. It is the other party that has failed to uphold the crude-for-naira agreement,” the sources said.

Independent petroleum marketers and energy experts opposed the dollar-denominated pricing of petroleum products, warning that the move could intensify foreign exchange pressures and create fresh instability in the downstream petroleum sector.

The stakeholders, who spoke separately with The PUNCH on Tuesday, argued that although the refinery, as a private business, has the right to make commercial decisions, pricing petroleum products consumed locally in dollars could have broader implications for the economy.

The Nigerian equities market maintained its upward momentum on Wednesday as renewed demand for banking stocks offset profit-taking in select counters, keeping the Nigerian Exchange near historic highs despite a slowdown in trading activity.

The benchmark NGX All-Share Index ended the session at 242,366.75 points, while investors’ year-to-date return remained robust at 55.8 per cent, reflecting sustained confidence in the domestic equities market amid expectations of stronger corporate earnings and continued portfolio repositioning.

Although the benchmark index recorded only a marginal movement, the market’s overall value expanded by N390.32bn, pushing total market capitalisation to N156.24tn, underscoring continued wealth creation for investors.

The day’s performance was largely driven by renewed buying interest in banking heavyweights, with First HoldCo Plc gaining 10 per cent, Transnational Corporation Plc rising 6.2 per cent, Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc advancing 2.4 per cent, and Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc adding 1.1 per cent. Their gains outweighed losses recorded in selected consumer and industrial stocks, helping to sustain positive market sentimen

Investor appetite remained firmly positive, with market breadth closing at about 1.8 times, as 31 stocks appreciated against 17 decliners.

Among the day’s top performers were First HoldCo Plc, Thomas Wyatt Nigeria Plc, Legend Internet Plc, Tripple Gee & Company Plc, and McNichols Plc, while Trans-Nationwide Express Plc, International Breweries Plc, HMC Allied Plc, DAAR Communications Plc, and Nigerian Exchange Group Plc ranked among the major losers.

Sectoral performance was mixed. The Banking Index emerged as the best-performing sector with a 2.2 per cent gain, reflecting strong demand for tier-one lenders. The Insurance Index also advanced 0.7 per cent, while the Consumer Goods and Industrial Goods indices declined 0.3 per cent and 0.2 per cent, respectively. The Oil and Gas sector closed unchanged.

Despite the positive market close, trading activity weakened considerably as many investors adopted a cautious stance following the recent rally. Total trading volume fell by about 25 per cent to 453.2 million shares, while the value of transactions dropped by more than 44 per cent to approximately N27.2bn, executed in nearly 40,000 deals.

First HoldCo Plc dominated market activity, accounting for the highest traded volume of 78.66 million shares valued at N6.19bn, reinforcing strong institutional and retail interest in the banking stock.

A viral video of distressed airport cab drivers appealing to President Bola Tinubu over what they believed was a directive requiring them to acquire 2020 model vehicles has sparked broader debate over FAAN’s latest push to modernise airport ground transportation.

While the appeal centred on the cost of acquiring newer vehicles in an economy weighed down by inflation and dwindling purchasing power, findings by The PUNCH showed that the controversy extends beyond vehicle specifications. At the heart of the disagreement is the implementation of the Airport Car Hire Rank Management System, a digital platform introduced by FAAN to regulate airport taxi operations, improve security and streamline passenger movement.

For FAAN, ACHRAMS represents a major step towards modernising airport ground transportation and closing longstanding security and operational gaps. For the drivers, however, the unanswered questions are less about digitisation and more about participation and practicality, among other concerns.

For many of the drivers, however, the issue is not resistance to technology but the feeling that they are being excluded from a reform that will directly affect their daily operations and livelihoods.

In the video, one of the drivers, speaking in Yoruba, appealed to Nigerians to intervene, saying, “This is what we are facing. Nigerians should help us intervene. They said we should go and buy a vehicle from 2020 above. Vehicles that cost between N18 and N30m, with the way Nigeria is now.

“There are no jobs in the country, with what we are going through. Please pity us Nigerians. Let this go viral. Nigerians pity us, help us intervene.”

The video gained traction on social media, drawing mixed reactions. While many Nigerians sympathised with the operators, arguing that surviving businesses should not be burdened with additional costs during economic hardship, others insisted that airport transport services should reflect the standards expected of international gateways.

Behind the public debate lies ACHRAMS, a technology-driven initiative FAAN says is designed to improve passenger safety, eliminate touting, regulate airport taxi services and ensure transparent fare administration.

The authority insists the initiative has been widely misunderstood.

Responding to the controversy, FAAN’s Director of Commercial and Business Development, Ms Adebola Agunbiade, dismissed claims that the protest was triggered by any directive compelling drivers to procure 2020 model vehicles.

She said, “Regarding the video circulating online, the claim that the main cause of the drivers’ actions is not accurate. The footage shows planned resistance by car hire operators who refused to register on the ACHRAMS. Those drivers were working to prevent the soft and pilot launches of the system at the Murtala Muhammed International Airport. This incident is not related to any policy regarding vehicle model year.”

Agunbiade explained that the authority’s minimum vehicle requirement remains 2012 models and above, not 2020 as widely alleged.

She further said, “It is incorrect to say that FAAN asked drivers to change their vehicles to a minimum of the 2020 model because of the introduction of ACHRAMS. In fact, one of the conditions laid down by the Authority for registration on the app is that drivers must operate vehicles manufactured in 2012 or above.”

She also stated that the requirement was introduced as far back as 2024 and that FAAN had repeatedly extended compliance deadlines from January to June and now to 1 October 2026, to accommodate operators facing financial constraints.

The airport managers also rejected allegations that the new system was intended to reduce the number of airport cab operators.

Agunbiade stated, “It is important to note that FAAN is not planning to clear only 60 per cent of existing drivers to pave the way for ACHRAMS. The intention is to clear all drivers, provided they comply with the laid-down standards.”

She disclosed that nearly all existing airport taxi operators at the Murtala Muhammed International Airport had already been admitted into the pilot phase of the platform, except two companies whose union allegedly advised members against participating while pursuing separate digital solutions.

FAAN further revealed that discussions were ongoing with ride-hailing companies such as Bolt and Uber to integrate their operations into ACHRAMS, explaining that any temporary restriction on airport pickups was purely regulatory pending the conclusion of agreements.

FAAN says the application goes beyond regulating drivers, describing it as a platform that will reshape airport transport through digital tracking, stricter vehicle and driver screening, transparent fare systems, designated pick-up points and stronger passenger security.

The platform, which is being implemented under a ten-year concession managed by two companies, the agency said, will reduce congestion around airport terminals while introducing electronic booking and payment options for passengers.

FAAN maintains that consultations did not begin overnight, insisting stakeholder engagements commenced in 2024 before the project entered its pilot phase.

Despite those assurances, many airport cab operators maintain that the consultation process has not been as inclusive as it ought to have been.

The National President of the National Association of Airport Cab Drivers, Mr Adepegba Samuel, said the association’s demand is simple and not the suspension of the initiative, but genuine dialogue with them.

“You see, when you want to introduce something that you want people to align with, there should be serious briefing and enlightenment about the issue. The people introducing something are in the office, but we are the ones operating on the road. They should speak with us so that we can also tell them our views,” he said.

Samuel argued that airport drivers interact with passengers more than any other stakeholders after travellers leave the terminal buildings, making their practical experience invaluable in shaping the success of any operational reform.

He said, “We try to take the message to the public, but we need to sit together. We are the ones who will mostly speak to the public about this, but when we are not properly briefed or when you refuse to sit with us, how do we go forward from there?

“There are things they don’t know in the office that are happening, that we know because we deal with the public. We deal with the masses. We are at the finishing end of the job.

“They will bring the passenger from the plane down. We will take them to their respective areas. So we are dealing with them. If they want to ask questions about our operation, the public will not ask the government first; they will ask us. That is why we are saying let us have a round-table discussion.”

His concerns also extend to the practical application of the technology.

According to him, the operational realities of Nigeria’s airports require a more flexible system than what has currently been proposed.

He reasoned, “The app they are talking about varies. The one that we work with in MM1 will not work at the international terminal. This one cannot even work for the public. The app should be made for the airport alone and be generalised.

“That is why we are seeking an audience with them, and they have refused to grant it. We are not fighting them. They are our bosses and principals, but they should please listen to us too.”

Samuel illustrated his concerns with a personal example, explaining that many airport drivers have built trusted relationships with customers over decades.

He explained, “For instance, I have a customer, an old customer of more than 25 years. Some of them have children in Babcock and other boarding schools. They don’t even come to pick their children themselves because they have confidence in me. They trust me.

“Imagine they are trying to reach me through the app from the international terminal while I am at the local airport; that will not be possible.

“They are our principals, but what we are saying is that let us come to a round table and debate the issue. That is all we seek.”

Attempts to obtain FAAN’s response on why the authority had yet to meet with the union were unsuccessful, as calls and text messages sent to its spokesperson, Henry Agbebire, went unanswered as of the time of filing this report.

Meanwhile, FAAN sources, who requested anonymity because they were not authorised to speak publicly, told our correspondent that the authority had no basis to meet directly with the drivers since it has no contractual relationship with them. They explained that FAAN had instead engaged with the concessionaires responsible for overseeing the airport cab operators.