Oil prices tumbled on Tuesday as growing optimism over a possible diplomatic breakthrough between Iran and the United States triggered a sharp sell-off in global crude markets, with Brent sliding toward the $91 per barrel mark.

According to the Economic Times, Brent crude fell by over three per cent during intraday trading, while WTI dropped nearly four per cent, as markets reacted to reports that a draft Iran–US peace agreement had been submitted for review in Washington and described as “preliminarily acceptable”.

The development immediately weakened the geopolitical risk premium that had kept oil prices elevated in recent weeks, particularly following heightened tensions that disrupted sentiment around Middle East supply routes and the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz.

The strait, through which roughly 20 per cent of global crude shipments pass, had been a key focus for traders after earlier disruptions triggered a sharp rally that pushed oil prices above $120 per barrel in late February.

At the time, fears of prolonged supply shocks sent global energy markets into panic buying. Tuesday’s decline therefore marks a significant reversal, as traders began pricing in the possibility that easing geopolitical tensions could stabilise supply flows and reduce the likelihood of further disruptions.

Experts said the market is now reacting less to immediate supply concerns and more to expectations of diplomatic progress, although they warn that sentiment remains highly sensitive to any setback in negotiations.

Any breakdown in talks, they note, could quickly reverse the current price trend given the still-fragile security environment in the Gulf region.

The Economic Times notes that energy markets reacted swiftly to shifting geopolitical signals and easing fears over supply disruption.

Oil traders said the combination of easing geopolitical fears and shifting supply data continued to drive volatility in global crude markets.

In Nigeria, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited recorded an over 70 per cent rise in revenue and profit. The Dangote Refinery also benefited from high fuel exports, but households are enduring higher fuel prices, raising inflation pressures.

However, the conflict involving Iran led to a sharp rise in fuel costs, impacting Nigeria’s inflation figures negatively. It is expected that a further crash in oil prices would translate to cheaper fuel for Nigerians.

Nigeria’s public external debt is projected to rise by $20.7bn by 2027, the country’s election year, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The IMF disclosed this in its 2026 Article IV Consultation report on Nigeria released on Tuesday, projecting that public external debt would increase from $51.9bn in 2025 to $72.6bn by 2027.

The projected increase represents a 39.9 per cent rise within two years and underscores growing concerns over the country’s debt burden despite recent improvements in macroeconomic stability.

The Fund noted that Nigeria’s next presidential election would take place in January 2027 and warned that spending pressures associated with rising poverty, food insecurity and the election cycle could widen fiscal deficits and increase borrowing requirements.

“Spending pressures from elevated poverty and food insecurity, including in the run-up to the elections, could widen fiscal deficit and increase financing needs,” the IMF stated.

According to the Fund’s Balance of Payments projections, public external debt is expected to rise from $51.9bn in 2025 to $66.5bn in 2026 before climbing further to $72.6bn in 2027.

The IMF’s projection broadly aligns with the latest Debt Management Office data, which showed that Nigeria’s public external debt stood at $51.86bn as of December 31, 2025.

Based on the Fund’s forecast, the debt stock would increase by about $20.74bn between the end of 2025 and 2027.

Beyond public debt, the IMF projected that Nigeria’s total external debt stock, which includes both public and private sector obligations, would rise from $109.3bn in 2025 to $119.3bn in 2026 and further to $132.0bn in 2027.

This indicates that total external debt could increase by $22.7bn between 2025 and 2027, with $12.7bn of the increase occurring in 2027 alone.

The report showed that public external debt would remain elevated relative to the size of the economy and export earnings. Public external debt is projected to increase from 17.9 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 18.7 per cent in 2027. As a share of exports of goods and services, it is expected to rise from 82.9 per cent in 2025 to 104.3 per cent by 2027.

The IMF also projected a deterioration in debt service indicators over the period.

Public external debt service due is expected to increase from 8.1 per cent of exports of goods and services in 2025 to 8.8 per cent in 2027, after easing to 5.0 per cent in 2026. The Fund further projected that interest payments on public debt would rise from $2bn in 2025 to $3bn by 2027.

At the Federal Government level, debt servicing is expected to continue consuming more than half of government revenue. The IMF estimated that interest payments absorbed 53.2 per cent of Federal Government revenue in 2025 and projected the ratio at 53.7 per cent in 2026 before easing marginally to 52.4 per cent in 2027.

The report highlighted the growing role of external borrowing in financing government operations. According to the IMF, financing for the 2026 consolidated government deficit is expected to rely more on external than domestic sources, with plans including a proposed $5bn total return swap with an international bank and another Eurobond issuance.

The Fund expressed reservations about the proposed swap arrangement, noting that it carried borrowing costs comparable to Eurobond yields and could expose the government to margin calls if the value of the naira-denominated collateral declines.

“The arrangement exposes the government to margin calls if the FX value of the naira securities drops (naira depreciation, higher interest rates) and could thus give rise to political constraints on monetary or exchange rate policy,” the IMF said.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the IMF warned Nigeria to tread carefully in pursuing a proposed $5bn Total Return Swap financing arrangement with First Abu Dhabi Bank, describing such structures as opaque and potentially risky despite the country’s improved access to international capital markets.

The IMF Resident Representative for Nigeria, Christian Ebeke, disclosed this on Tuesday during a virtual press briefing on the Fund’s 2026 Article IV Consultation Report on Nigeria.

Speaking on the proposed transaction, Ebeke said, “We say in the report, and our view is that the transaction and these types of structures carry risks. Usually, they are opaque. So, the terms are not always very transparent when we review these instruments across countries.”

His comments come weeks after the Senate approved the Federal Government’s request to raise up to $5bn through a Total Return Swap arrangement with a Middle Eastern bank, widely reported to be First Abu Dhabi Bank.

Ebeke noted that beyond concerns over transparency, such financing arrangements could expose countries to additional financial risks if underlying assets lose value or exchange rates move adversely. “They also carry risk, as we flag in the report: the margin calls in the case of the value of the asset drops or the currency depreciates,” he said.

According to him, Nigeria currently has alternative funding options that may be less complicated and more transparent. “We think that Nigeria has market access. Nigeria can issue euro bonds to finance the deficit. And we also think that there are other avenues for Nigeria to raise funds, including on concessional terms,” Ebeke added.

While noting that the Fund did not yet have detailed information on the proposed swap structure, he urged authorities to closely monitor the transaction’s potential risks. “At this point, we don’t have any further information on the TRS. But our view is that it carries risk, and it’s important to monitor those risks very, very carefully,” he said.

The IMF’s caution formed part of a broader assessment in which the Fund acknowledged that economic reforms undertaken by the Nigerian government over the past three years had strengthened macroeconomic stability and improved the country’s ability to withstand external shocks.

Despite the projected increase in debt, the Fund maintained that Nigeria’s sovereign debt position remains manageable. “The risk of sovereign stress is assessed as moderate,” the IMF stated, noting that public debt fell to 36.1 per cent of GDP in 2025 from 39.3 per cent in 2024 due to stronger growth, naira appreciation and improvements in macroeconomic stability.

However, it warned that weak revenue mobilisation, expenditure slippages, contingent liabilities and election-related fiscal pressures could worsen the debt outlook if not carefully managed.

The Fund urged the government to strengthen fiscal transparency, improve budget implementation, sustain revenue mobilisation reforms and avoid spending outside the budget framework in order to contain borrowing needs and preserve debt sustainability.

At the virtual briefing, the IMF Mission Chief for Nigeria, Axel Schimmelpfennig, said recent reforms had enhanced resilience and helped the country manage the economic fallout from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. “One of the key messages from the report is that strong reforms over the past three years have improved macroeconomic outcomes and improved resilience,” he said.

According to Schimmelpfennig, higher global oil prices resulting from the conflict could improve Nigeria’s export earnings and government revenues, but would also create inflationary pressures through increased fuel, food and fertiliser costs.

He said the IMF recommended a broadly neutral fiscal stance for 2026, with the budget deficit remaining largely unchanged relative to 2025 to support macroeconomic stability and complement the Central Bank of Nigeria’s efforts to curb inflation.

“We continue to think that the flexible exchange rate regime is serving Nigeria well, and we’ve even seen an appreciation against the US dollar since the start of the year,” he said.

The IMF also projected that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 4.1 per cent in 2026 and 4.3 per cent in 2027, although these forecasts were lower than previous projections due to the economic consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. “For 2026, we project real GDP growth to be 4.1 per cent. And for 2027, we see some acceleration to 4.3 per cent,” Schimmelpfennig stated.

He stressed that monetary policy should remain restrictive for longer than previously anticipated, given renewed inflationary pressures stemming from global developments.

The IMF chief further urged the government to continue expanding its cash transfer programme to cushion the impact of economic shocks on vulnerable households while sustaining reforms aimed at improving infrastructure, electricity supply, security, agriculture, education and healthcare.

The Fund also reiterated its support for efforts to increase government revenue, noting that Nigeria remains one of the countries with the lowest revenue-to-GDP ratios globally.

Schimmelpfennig said strengthening tax administration and, over time, aligning some tax rates with those of peer countries would be necessary to create fiscal space for development spending, while ensuring that vulnerable citizens are protected through targeted social interventions.

Obi tackles FG

In a related development, the 2027 presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, Peter Obi, has criticised President Bola Tinubu’s administration over what he described as excessive borrowing and poor fiscal accountability.

Obi said Nigeria’s total public debt has risen to about N200tn, which he attributed to what he called “imprudent governance” under the current administration. He said the debt level represents an increase of over N100tn in three years, contrasting it with the approximately N49tn accumulated during the eight-year administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari.

The former Labour Party presidential flagbearer in the 2023 election stated this in a statement posted on his X handle on Tuesday, saying the situation reflected a lack of accountability and transparency in the management of borrowed funds.

“President Bola Tinubu’s administration has engaged in remarkably imprudent borrowing, escalating Nigeria’s total debt to approximately N200tn. This represents an increase of over N100tn within a mere three years, a stark contrast to the roughly N49tn accumulated during President Muhammadu Buhari’s eight-year tenure, which would have projected to around N80tn.

“As millions of Nigerians grapple with the shock of this unsustainable debt accumulation, the situation is exacerbated by the government’s reckless approach to borrowing and a profound absence of accountability and transparency in the utilisation of these funds,” he said.

However, the Presidency has dismissed claims by Obi that the administration of President Bola Tinubu has accumulated more than N100tn in debt within three years, attributing the increase in Nigeria’s debt profile largely to the impact of naira devaluation.

Special Assistant to the President on Social Media, Dada Olusegun, stated this on Tuesday while responding to Obi’s criticism of the government’s borrowing record and fiscal management.

“For the umpteenth time, Nigeria’s obvious debt portfolio increase over the past three years under the administration of President Tinubu is not a function of new borrowings rather; vast majority of them are mathematical impacts of currency devaluation which you also promised to implement during your campaigns,” Olusegun said.

Olusegun also maintained that Nigeria’s public debt figures include obligations incurred by state governments over the years and should not be attributed solely to the Federal Government.

Questioning Obi’s interpretation of the debt figures, the presidential aide said fluctuations in exchange rates significantly affect the naira value of external debt. The aide further argued that Nigeria’s debt stock in dollar terms had remained relatively stable.

MTN Nigeria said it invested N900bn in network expansion and maintenance in 2025 and plans to spend more than N1tn in 2026.

The Chief Executive Officer of MTN Nigeria, Karl Toriola, argued that the recent tariff increase was necessary to prevent the telecommunications company and the wider industry from slipping into insolvency.

Toriola disclosed this during the company’s recent stakeholder engagement on internet data spending, themed ‘Data on Trial’, held in Lagos. The event featured a law court-style debate session hosted by Ebuka Obi-Uchendu and attended by content creators, MTN subscribers and regulators.

Speaking on the rationale for the tariff adjustment, Toriola said the company faced severe financial pressure before the increase was approved. He explained, “The tariff increase was implemented for one primary reason: to allow the industry to survive. At the point in time when the tariff increase was implemented, we practically could not pay our bills.”

He added, “There was not enough money coming into MTN’s accounts to pay our bills for diesel, rent and software licences. We were effectively bankrupt. Without that tariff increase, we would have had to shut down the network.”

Toriola said the company was technically insolvent at the time, with negative equity, and warned that network operations were at risk.

According to him, “In the period when the tariff increase was implemented, technically speaking, we were insolvent. We were in negative equity, for those who are financial people. So it was necessary for the industry first just to survive. It was really on the verge of breaking down. And then to allow us to continue to invest.”

The MTN boss said the company invested N900bn in 2025 and would exceed that figure this year as it continues to expand and maintain its infrastructure.

According to him, “Last year, we invested N900bn. This year, we’re going to invest in excess of a trillion. We invest more in the expansion and maintenance of this company than we make in profits.”

Toriola also linked network quality challenges to the country’s operating environment, citing vandalism, insecurity and disruptions at telecom sites.

The MTN boss remarked, “We’re in a country where area boys will block us from network sites. We’re in a country where someone, for the heck of it, will light up a telecom manhole that will affect 30,000 subscribers, or base stations serving up to two million people.”

Despite the challenges, he maintained that MTN delivers services comparable to international standards. According to him, “I still believe that I’m proud that we provide pretty much a global standard of service.”

On complaints about data costs, Toriola argued that mobile operators cannot sustainably offer unlimited data packages because of capacity constraints.

The MTN Nigeria chief said, “We cannot give unlimited internet data to everyone, as much as we would desire it. We will not be able to build the networks that we will use in any way whatsoever.”

He further claimed that data prices in Nigeria remain among the lowest globally despite the tariff review. According to him, “Go and check in Kenya, go and check in Congo, go and check across the world, and tell me if you are not going to tell me that data in Nigeria is one of the cheapest in the world, even after the tariff increase.”

The Chief Customer Relations and Experience Officer, Ugonwa Nwonye, said the engagement aimed to educate subscribers on how data is consumed and provide tools to help them track usage.

She said video-streaming applications such as TikTok remain among the biggest drivers of data consumption and noted that device settings, video quality and automatic backups often contribute to faster depletion.

According to Nwonye, “We have built a data calculator. We have built a data dashboard personalised to our customers. And we’re going to make this available by the end of this month so that customers can also go to such places and look at how much data they’ve spent on different applications.”

She added that MTN would take the campaign nationwide over the next six months to improve consumer understanding of data usage.

On her part, the Chief Marketing Officer, Onyinye Ikenna-Emeka, said the programme was designed to address long-standing concerns about data depletion, expiry and transparency.

According to her, “The whole idea is to provide that clarity, the understanding, the transparency, and the behind-the-scenes of exactly what happens when we are in the process of using data.”

She said MTN would continue engaging customers and improving transparency around data usage patterns. According to Ikenna-Emeka, the company currently serves more than 87 million subscribers across Nigeria.

One of the participants at the event, Yemisi Odusanya, popularly known as Sisi Yemmie, said she arrived at the engagement frustrated by what she perceived as rapid data depletion. “I was very angry when I was coming,” Odusanya said. “Because I’m like, we just subscribed, let’s say two days ago, and now it is expired.”

However, the content creator said the explanations provided during the session helped her better understand how data is consumed across multiple devices and applications.

According to Odusanya, “After the explanations, I was like, you know what, this actually makes sense. I’m going home to go and reconfigure everything.”

The MTN team fielded questions from more users on internet costs and usage. Some users in attendance included entertainment content creators Peller and Jarvis, tech influencer Fisayo Fosudo, and legal influencer/content creator Timi Agbaje.

Nigeria recorded a sharp improvement in its merchandise trade balance in the first quarter of 2026 as exports rose and imports declined significantly, pushing the country’s trade surplus to N7.55tn.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics’ Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report released on Monday, total trade stood at N34.79tn in the review period, with exports accounting for N21.17tn and imports amounting to N13.62tn.

The report showed that the trade balance remained positive at N7.55tn, representing a 340.88 per cent increase compared to the preceding quarter.

“The merchandise trade balance for Q1 2026 remained positive at N7.55tn, indicating an increase of 340.88 per cent compared to the value recorded in the preceding quarter,” the NBS stated, attributing the development largely to lower petroleum product imports and higher crude oil exports.

The statistics office disclosed that total exports rose by 2.77 per cent year-on-year from N20.60tn recorded in the corresponding period of 2025 and increased by 11.63 per cent from N18.96tn in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Exports accounted for 60.85 per cent of total trade during the quarter. Crude oil remained Nigeria’s dominant export commodity, generating N11.20tn and accounting for 52.92 per cent of total exports.

Non-crude oil exports stood at N9.97tn, while non-oil exports contributed N3.19tn, representing 15.05 per cent of total exports. The report noted that crude oil exports, despite declining by 13.53 per cent from N12.96tn recorded a year earlier, increased by 15.45 per cent compared to the previous quarter.

Other petroleum product exports surged by 51.49 per cent year-on-year to N6.78tn. India emerged as Nigeria’s largest export destination during the quarter with goods valued at N2.77tn, representing 13.09 per cent of total exports.

It was followed by France with N1.97tn, the Netherlands with N1.95tn, Spain with N1.63tn and the United States with N1.18tn. Together, the five countries accounted for 44.84 per cent of Nigeria’s total exports.

The NBS further revealed that exports were concentrated in mineral products valued at N18.16tn, representing 85.77 per cent of total exports. Europe remained the leading destination for Nigerian exports, accounting for N7.93tn or 37.44 per cent of total exports, followed by Asia with N6.42tn.

On the import side, Nigeria’s import bill fell sharply to N13.62tn, representing an 18.17 per cent decline from N16.64tn recorded in the first quarter of 2025 and a 21.05 per cent decrease from N17.25tn in the preceding quarter. Imports accounted for 39.15 per cent of total trade.

According to the report, machinery and transport equipment remained the largest import category, valued at N5.01tn and accounting for 36.79 per cent of total imports.

Mineral fuels followed with N2.65tn, while chemicals and related products accounted for N2.02tn. China retained its position as Nigeria’s largest source of imports, supplying goods worth N5.10tn or 37.42 per cent of total imports.

The United States followed with imports valued at N2.81tn, while India, Germany and the United Arab Emirates completed the top five import sources.

The NBS stated that imports were driven largely by crude petroleum oils valued at N1.91tn, gas oil worth N364.42bn, durum wheat valued at N340.07bn, telecommunications equipment worth N299.56bn and used diesel vehicles valued at N284.07bn.

A breakdown by sector showed mixed performance. Agricultural exports declined by 31.2 per cent to N1.17tn from N1.70tn recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025, while agricultural imports also dropped by 20.09 per cent to N827.72bn.

Superior quality cocoa beans remained the country’s leading agricultural export, generating N596.90bn during the period. Raw material exports rose strongly by 46.83 per cent to N1.53tn, while solid mineral exports increased by 74.63 per cent to N102.80bn. Manufactured goods exports edged up by 2.79 per cent to N302.64bn.

The report also showed that Nigeria maintained a substantial trade surplus with Africa. Exports to African countries stood at N4.06tn, compared to imports of N654.94bn. Togo remained Nigeria’s biggest export destination in Africa with goods valued at N1.08tn, followed by South Africa, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt and Senegal.

Within West Africa, exports totalled N2.27tn against imports of N76.54bn, while trade with ECOWAS member states produced exports worth N2.20tn compared with imports of N65.91bn.

Petroleum products dominated Nigeria’s exports to both West Africa and ECOWAS countries. The report further showed that maritime transport remained the dominant channel for trade, accounting for 99.07 per cent of exports and 92.93 per cent of imports. Apapa Port handled the largest share of both exports and imports, recording N15.48tn in exports and N4.92tn in imports during the quarter.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has commenced moves to harmonise regulatory processes with the Nigerian Nuclear Regulatory Authority as part of efforts to strengthen radiological safety in oil and gas operations and reduce the cost of doing business in the upstream petroleum sector.

The initiative emerged from a recent meeting between the Chief Executive of the NUPRC, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, and the Director-General and Chief Executive Officer of the NNRA, Yau Idris, at the commission’s headquarters in Abuja.

According to a statement issued by the Head of Corporate Communications and Media at the NUPRC, Eniola Akinkuotu, on Sunday, the collaboration is expected to address overlapping regulatory requirements, close existing gaps in oversight, and create a more efficient compliance framework for operators in the industry.

The statement read, “The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission is partnering with the Nigerian Nuclear Regulatory Authority in order to enforce radiological safety in oil and gas operations and reduce the overall cost of operations.”

While the NUPRC regulates the technical, commercial, and operational aspects of oil and gas exploration and production, the NNRA is responsible for regulating the possession, use, transportation, and disposal of radioactive materials and radiation-emitting equipment across the country.

Speaking during the meeting, Eyesan stressed the need for greater collaboration among regulators to eliminate duplication and improve the investment climate in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

She noted that excessive regulatory requirements often translate into additional costs for operators, ultimately affecting the competitiveness of the industry.

“The only way we can safeguard investments is to reduce our cost of operations, and when you have a multiplicity of laws, the likelihood is that you will have higher costs because each law normally will come with its own fees and charges,” the NUPRC boss said.

Eyesan nominated senior officials from the commission who will work closely with the NNRA on the task ahead.

“We have identified critical areas on both sides and we believe that, as we collaborate, we can close existing gaps,” she said.

Responding, Idris said the cooperation of the NUPRC was crucial because the upstream petroleum industry remains one of the largest users of radioactive sources and radiation-emitting equipment in Nigeria.

According to him, radioactive technologies are widely deployed in well logging, industrial radiography, and nucleonic gauging activities that support oil and gas exploration and production.

He explained that the partnership would enable both agencies to share information and simplify compliance procedures for operators.

“The goal is a single-window approach, where both agencies share information rather than requiring operators to submit the same data twice,” he said.

Idris further stated that, since oil and gas extraction often brings Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials (NORM) to the surface, the NNRA seeks the assistance of the commission to ensure that operators conduct radiological impact assessments as part of their broader Environmental Impact Assessments, while NORM management protocols are incorporated into the NUPRC’s environmental guidelines for the upstream sector.

The two agencies also agreed to deepen collaboration in training, capacity building, and knowledge sharing on radiation protection and safe operational practices.

The latest partnership comes as the Federal Government intensifies efforts to boost investment in the petroleum sector, increase production, and enhance operational efficiency following the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act.

On Sunday, The PUNCH reported that Nigeria’s oil and gas sector recorded a 283.3 per cent increase in foreign capital inflows in the first quarter of 2026, but the industry continued to attract only a negligible share of total investments entering the country, official data showed.

Figures obtained from the latest Capital Importation Report released by the National Bureau of Statistics and analysed by our correspondent on Friday showed that the oil and gas sector attracted just $0.46 million in foreign capital during the review period, compared to $0.12 million recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.

Although the year-on-year growth represents a significant percentage increase, the actual value of investments flowing into the industry remained extremely low when compared to the overall capital imported into the Nigerian economy.

The NBS report indicated that total capital importation into Nigeria rose to $10.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026 from $5.64 billion recorded in the same period of 2025, representing an increase of 83.83 per cent.

Nigeria’s trade sector attracted $65.79m in foreign capital in the first quarter of 2026, representing a 91.31 per cent increase from the $34.39m recorded in the corresponding period of 2025, despite a slowdown from the strong inflows recorded in the second half of last year.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics’ capital importation report showed that foreign investment into the trade sector rose 91.31 per cent year-on-year, underscoring renewed investor confidence in commercial activities and cross-border trade.

The latest inflow, however, fell below the $80.94m recorded in the third quarter of 2025 and the $119.21m attracted in the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating that momentum moderated after two consecutive quarters of strong growth.

The development came as the National Bureau of Statistics National Bureau of Statistics Nigeria reported that trade emerged as the single largest contributor to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product in the first quarter of 2026, accounting for 17.89 per cent of total output.

Commenting on the GDP performance, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said the sector’s strong contribution reflected improving macroeconomic conditions.

“One of the most significant highlights of the report is the emergence of the trade sector as the single largest contributor to GDP at 17.89 per cent. This reflects the positive effects of improved exchange rate stability, better FX liquidity conditions, easing inflationary pressures and recovering business confidence on commercial activities and trade flows,” Yusuf said.

He, however, cautioned against relying solely on commerce for economic growth. “However, sustainable economic transformation cannot be driven by commerce alone. Long-term growth resilience requires stronger productive capacity, deeper industrialisation and significantly higher domestic value addition,” Yusuf said.

Industry experts also projected that trade would play an increasingly important role in driving growth across Nigeria and the African continent as governments and businesses deepen regional integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area.

In her contribution to The Boardroom Africa 2026 Industry Trends Report, the Chief Executive Officer of Seedtree Capital, Bowale Adeoye, said innovations in trade finance and logistics would accelerate cross-border commerce.

“Trade finance innovation is reshaping intra-African commerce. The shift from dollar-intermediated systems toward continental payment infrastructure is reducing transaction costs and settlement delays while addressing Africa’s $100–120bn trade finance gap,” Adeoye said.

Adeoye observed that platforms such as the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System are helping businesses settle transactions faster in local currencies, thereby improving liquidity and lowering trading costs across African markets.

She also highlighted the growing importance of cold-chain infrastructure in supporting trade resilience. “Cold chain logistics is becoming a critical enabler of Africa’s trade resilience. Historically underdeveloped, the sector is shifting toward technology-enabled, asset-light models that address food preservation and pharmaceutical integrity,” Adeoye remarked.

The Seedtree Capital chief added that local value addition had become a competitive necessity for African economies. “Localisation is no longer aspirational; it is foundational to competitiveness, tariff optimisation, and supply resilience,” Adeoye said.

Similarly, the Chief Executive Officer of NAHCO Commodities Limited, Ijeoma Ezenwa, said Africa’s agricultural sector was increasingly moving from raw commodity exports to value creation through processing and integrated supply chains.

The African Energy Bank is scheduled to launch in September in Abuja, Nigeria’s Federal Capital Territory, the African Petroleum Producers’ Organisation African Petroleum Producers Organisation has said.

According to Argus Media, APPO Secretary General Farid Ghezali acknowledged “several postponements” but said the new deadline is “to make the bank operational in September 2026 in view of the incompressible deadlines from an administrative point of view”.

A planned April start was pushed back to June before APPO members were again mobilised around a third-quarter deadline. At a recent meeting, the Nigerian government reiterated the country’s commitment to the African Energy Bank’s formal commencement of operations.

The bank was established by the APPO and the African Export-Import Bank to address the critical financing needs of Africa’s oil, gas and broader energy sectors and mitigate the global funding pressure against hydrocarbon investments in Africa.

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, and the Executive Secretary of the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board, Felix Ogbe, were among the Nigerian delegation who attended the 46th extraordinary ministerial meeting, which was held virtually.

The Nigerian delegation was said to have assured that the country is ready and committed to the bank’s commencement of operations. Ogbe serves as an Executive Board member of APPO, representing Nigeria.

It is reported that the AEB is positioned to become Africa’s premier partner in mobilising private-sector funds for energy projects across the continent, providing accessible and affordable financing for the development of energy projects in Africa.

The bank was originally billed to take off before the end of April and was expected to have held shareholder meetings, appointed management and board, recruited staff and completed other necessary procedures.

However, funding has remained a major challenge even when the Nigerian government said the headquarters of the bank was ready.

Ghezali called on APPO members to redeem their pledges towards the $500m start-up capital before the end of June.

Argus quoted sources as saying that 91 per cent of the capital had been raised and that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board would make up the balance.

Ghezali said AEB aims to reverse the situation that sees Africa importing more than 60 per cent of its oil products consumption and producing only 12 per cent of global upstream liquids while being home to many of the world’s largest national oil and gas reserves.

The Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board said AEB will achieve its aim by “mobilising private-sector funds for energy projects across the continent”.

The APPO boss had stated that the bank will target the financing of 20–30 LNG, petroleum products pipeline, terminals and refining projects by 2030. Projects that monetise natural gas as a transition fuel will take up 40 per cent of AEB’s loan book, and priority will be given to projects that contribute towards the creation of “500,000 to 1 million direct and indirect jobs in the energy value chain”.

But even with the September start, Ghezali said AEB loan-making will only “open at the end of 2026”.

The Central Bank of Nigeria has set a N100m penalty for banks that process foreign exchange transactions without adequate documentation as part of a sweeping compliance regime unveiled in its newly released Foreign Exchange Manual.

Under the offences and sanctions section of the fourth edition of the manual, the apex bank stated, “Authorised dealers shall pay N100m in addition to N10m per transaction” for consummating foreign exchange transactions with inadequate documentation.

The sanction forms part of a broader framework aimed at tightening oversight of Nigeria’s foreign exchange market, strengthening compliance standards, and curbing abuses among authorised dealers and other market participants.

The revised manual, issued by the CBN’s Trade and Exchange Department in May 2026, is the first major update since 2017. It serves as a regulatory guide for banks, authorised buyers, exporters, investors, and members of the public participating in foreign exchange transactions.

According to the CBN, the manual seeks to promote transparency in foreign exchange inflows and outflows, establish clear documentation and reporting requirements, strengthen enforcement mechanisms, and support national economic priorities by ensuring foreign exchange is channelled to productive uses.

Beyond the N100m sanction, the manual introduces a range of penalties for violations in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market.

Banks that exceed their approved Net Open Position limits face escalating punishments. A first offender will receive a warning letter, while a second offence attracts a 10-working-day suspension from the foreign exchange market. A third violation will result in a 90-day suspension from the market.

The apex bank also tightened reporting obligations for authorised dealers. Banks are required to submit daily returns on foreign exchange transactions by 10 a.m. for the preceding day and monthly returns within five working days after month-end. Failure to comply attracts sanctions.

Under the new rules, late rendition of returns will attract a penalty of N500,000, while non-rendition carries a minimum fine of N5m and an additional N500,000 for every day the violation continues.

The CBN further warned banks against reallocating foreign exchange funds without regulatory approval, stating that such actions could attract monetary fines, suspension of authorised dealership licences for at least six months, or outright licence revocation, depending on the severity of the breach.

Import-related transactions also received significant attention in the revised framework. The manual requires importers to submit Exchange Control Documents within 90 days of negotiating shipping documents with overseas correspondent banks. Importers who fail to comply will be restricted from conducting valid and non-valid foreign exchange transactions, including the processing of Form M applications.

First-time offenders will face a 90-day restriction, rising to 180 days for a second offence and 360 days for a third. A fourth violation will attract a complete ban from the foreign exchange market.

Where banks fail to report such defaults, they risk sanctions, including a warning and a N10m penalty for each affected transaction.

The manual also imposes stricter obligations on exporters. For non-oil exports, proceeds must be repatriated and credited to exporters’ domiciliary accounts within 180 days of shipment, while oil and gas export proceeds must be received within 90 days.

Exporters that fail to repatriate proceeds within the stipulated period will pay a penalty equivalent to one per cent of the naira value of the outstanding proceeds, while banks that fail to ensure compliance will be fined 0.5 per cent of the outstanding amount.

The manual further empowers the CBN to sanction banks for late approvals of export documentation, non-remittance of export supervision levies, and failure to render returns on export proceeds.

In addition to the sanctions, the revised framework introduces several operational reforms designed to improve market efficiency.

Among the changes are an increase in allowable advance payment for imports from 15 per cent to 30 per cent, the introduction of a permissible import shortfall or excess margin of plus or minus 10 per cent of the Cost and Freight value on Form M, and the removal of processing fees for Form NXP used for exports.

The CBN also introduced provisions covering service exports, technology-related remittances, Pan-African Payment and Settlement System transactions, non-resident investment accounts, and tuition fee remittances of up to $25,000 per semester for undergraduate and postgraduate studies abroad.

The manual additionally removed the mandatory requirement for Form A in remittances funded through ordinary domiciliary accounts, although banks are still required to verify the legitimacy and purpose of such transactions.

The apex bank said the reforms were developed after extensive consultations with banks, exporters, corporates, regulators, and development partners and are intended to support a transparent, rules-based, and market-oriented foreign exchange system.

According to the CBN, the revised manual is expected to improve compliance, reduce transaction bottlenecks, deepen market confidence, attract investment inflows, and strengthen the integrity of Nigeria’s foreign exchange market.

The Governor of the CBN, Mr Olayemi Cardoso, earlier said the initiative reflected the apex bank’s commitment to strengthening macroeconomic stability and modernising Nigeria’s foreign exchange administration.

He said the revised manual became necessary following evolving global economic conditions, domestic structural adjustments, and ongoing reforms in Nigeria’s foreign exchange market.

The Deputy Governor, Corporate Services Directorate of the CBN, Dr Muhammad Abdullahi, said the revised manual formed part of broader reforms initiated under Cardoso’s leadership to restore confidence, improve transparency, deepen liquidity, and strengthen market efficiency.

He said the review was undertaken to align Nigeria’s foreign exchange framework with current market realities and international best practices.

“Our goal is to reduce transaction frictions, improve processing timelines, deepen market confidence, encourage formal market participation, and create a more seamless and efficient experience for legitimate users of Nigeria’s foreign exchange market,” he said.