Nigeria’s sustained monetary tightening has played a central role in slowing inflation, with research estimates showing that the Central Bank of Nigeria’s policy stance accounted for as much as 10 percentage points of the decline in headline inflation, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria and Chairman of the Monetary Policy Committee, Olayemi Cardoso, has said.

This was stated in his personal statement released by the apex bank on its website on Wednesday. Cardoso, in his personal statement at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting held in November 2025, described the outcome as strong counterfactual evidence of the effectiveness of monetary policy despite significant domestic and global headwinds.

He said the findings reinforced the need for bold and consistent actions to preserve price stability.

In the statement, Cardoso said, “Research estimates indicate that our tight policy stance has accounted for up to 10 percentage points of the decline in headline inflation, providing encouraging counterfactual evidence on the effectiveness of monetary policy in the current environment and a reminder of the need to consistently take bold actions.”

Data show that headline inflation declined to 16.05 per cent in October 2025 from 18.02 per cent in September and is now 8.43 percentage points lower than the 24.48 per cent recorded in January 2025.

The CBN governor noted that the disinflation has been broad-based, cutting across headline, food, and core inflation, with momentum strengthening in recent months. According to him, the slowdown reflects reduced foreign exchange volatility, lower food prices, and better-anchored inflation expectations, supported by a relatively stronger naira.

He added that the exchange rate has become significantly less volatile and has shown signs of market-driven appreciation, while foreign reserves have continued to strengthen following reforms that improved capital inflows and triggered structural shifts in Nigeria’s balance of payments.

Beyond inflation, Cardoso said macroeconomic conditions have improved, with rising investor confidence, stronger external buffers, and positive business and household sentiment supporting long-term investment in critical sectors of the economy.

However, he warned that risks to the outlook remain elevated, citing global uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and Nigeria’s recent designation by the United States as a Country of Particular Concern. He noted that although the designation is rooted in security issues, it could have economic spillover effects.

He also identified the 2026 political cycle as a key domestic risk, given the historical link between pre-election fiscal expansion and inflationary pressures, exchange rate depreciation, and external sector stress.

The CBN governor said fiscal reforms, though necessary, often take time to deliver results and may introduce new challenges in the interim, stressing that monetary policy must remain alert and proactive to prevent any reversal in the disinflationary trend.

Cardoso said deliberations at the November meeting supported maintaining a tight monetary stance, identifying excess system liquidity as a major threat to price stability. He argued that holding policy rates steady would reinforce stability and signal confidence that the current stance is delivering the desired results.

He added that improved anchoring of overnight market rates within the standing facilities corridor shows stronger policy transmission to the wholesale market, providing room for operational adjustments to better manage liquidity conditions.

Based on this assessment, Cardoso supported retaining the Monetary Policy Rate at 27 per cent, adjusting the standing facilities corridor to +50/-450 basis points, maintaining a 45 per cent cash reserve ratio for commercial banks and a 75 per cent CRR on non-TSA public sector deposits, while keeping the liquidity ratio unchanged at 30 per cent.

The Bank of Industry has announced the appointment of Olayinka Mubarak as the Managing Director of BOI Investment & Trust Company Limited, its wholly owned subsidiary.

According to the bank in a statement on Thursday, Mubarak brings over 25 years of experience in banking and financial services, spanning development finance, treasury management, public sector, commercial and retail banking, corporate and private banking, as well as investment banking.

The bank added that she has attended numerous local and international training programmes, equipping her with global perspectives and best practices in financial services, leadership, and governance.

Prior to her appointment, Mubarak held various senior leadership roles at the Bank of Industry, where she was part of the team that drove significant impact across key sectors of the economy.

In 2017, she was appointed by the Federal Government to the Board of the Solid Minerals Development Fund, a role that further underscored her experience in governance and public sector oversight.

As Managing Director, Mubarak will provide strategic leadership for BOI-ITC, overseeing its core business areas of trusteeship, custodial services, financial planning, and advisory services.

The bank noted that her leadership will focus on strong governance, operational excellence, and sustainable value creation at the subsidiary.

President Bola Tinubu has approved targeted incentives to unlock Shell’s long-delayed $5bn Bonga South-West deep-offshore oil project. He also directed his Special Adviser on Energy, Olu Verheijen, to facilitate the gazetting of the incentives in line with Nigeria’s existing legal and fiscal frameworks.

Tinubu gave the approval on Wednesday while receiving a Shell delegation led by its Global Chief Executive Officer, Wael Sawan, at the State House, Abuja, on Thursday.

The President’s Special Adviser on Media and Public Communication, Sunday Dare, announced the approval in a statement on Thursday titled: ‘President Tinubu approves targeted incentives to unlock jobs, FX inflows from Shell’s Bonga Southwest Project and other deep offshore projects.’

The Bonga Southwest project, located approximately 120 kilometres offshore Nigeria in water depths exceeding 1,000 metres, has been stalled for over a decade due to fiscal disagreements between the Federal Government and Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company and its joint venture partners.

The project, estimated to cost over $5bn, is expected to produce about 150,000 barrels of oil per day at peak capacity and holds significant potential for gas production, experts say.

Previous administrations struggled to reach an agreement with Shell on the fiscal terms for the project, with the oil giant seeking incentives to make the capital-intensive deep-water development commercially viable amid declining global oil prices and Nigeria’s challenging investment climate.

Announcing the breakthrough, Tinubu said the approved incentives are “disciplined, targeted, and globally competitive,” designed to attract new capital without undermining government revenues.

He stated, “These incentives are not blanket concessions. They are ring-fenced and investment-linked, focused on new capital and incremental production, strong local content delivery, and in-country value addition. My expectation is clear: Bonga Southwest must reach a Final Investment Decision within the first term of this administration.”

Tinubu directed his Special Adviser on Energy, Olu Verheijen, to facilitate the gazetting of the incentives in line with Nigeria’s existing legal and fiscal frameworks, including the Petroleum Industry Act 2021.

The President emphasised the strategic importance of the project to Nigeria’s economy, noting its potential to create thousands of direct and indirect jobs, generate significant foreign exchange inflows, and deliver sustained government revenues over its lifespan.

He added that the project would deepen Nigerian participation in offshore engineering, fabrication, logistics, and energy services. Tinubu reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to policy stability, regulatory certainty, and speed, noting that these reforms are critical to restoring investor confidence and positioning Nigeria as a preferred destination for large-scale energy investment.

He revealed that Shell and its partners have invested nearly $7bn in Nigeria in the past 13 months, particularly in the Bonga North and HI projects, describing this as evidence that the country’s economic and energy-sector reforms are yielding results.

Responding, Shell CEO Wael Sawan said Nigeria’s investment climate has improved remarkably under the Tinubu administration, adding that the company is increasingly confident in Nigeria as a destination for long-term investment.

The Bonga field, operated by Shell, commenced production in 2005 and was Nigeria’s first deep-water development.

Nigerians spent an estimated N1.58tn on petrol in December 2025, based on official fuel consumption data released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.

According to the NMDPRA December fact sheet, average daily petrol consumption stood at 63.7 million litres per day throughout the month. With 31 days in December, nationwide petrol use totalled 1.97 billion litres.

Petrol consumption in the month remained consistently high, perhaps driven largely by increased travel, festive movements and higher commercial activities associated with the Yuletide.

Using the total volume of petrol consumed in the month and applying the average pump price of about N800 per litre that prevailed across major cities, total consumer spending on petrol for December is estimated at about N1.58tn, which is 1.97 billion multiplied by N800.

It could be recalled that the Dangote refinery enforced a price reduction in December, crashing petrol prices from around N900 to N739 per litre. However, it was observed that, unlike MRS in Lagos and some parts of Ogun, many filling stations sold petrol above N800 during the Yuletide, especially in the north.

Our correspondent reports that the calculation relies on two official and market-based indicators: the daily consumption figure provided by the regulator and the average retail price motorists paid at filling stations following the deregulation of the petrol market. While pump prices varied slightly by location, N800 per litre broadly reflects the national average during the period.

December typically records higher fuel usage compared to other months due to holiday travel, end-of-year logistics, and increased need for electricity by businesses relying on petrol-powered generators. These seasonal factors explain the elevated spending level recorded during the month.

It was observed that the December 2025 figure of 63.7 million litres per day was the highest since October 2024.

Year-on-year, daily petrol consumption stood at 52.3 million litres per day in December 2024.

The NMDPRA data showed that daily premium motor spirit consumption surged in October 2025, hitting 56.9 million litres, but it dropped in November to 52.9 million and soared again to its highest in December 2025.

According to the regulator, the consumption data as reported is based on volumes trucked into the domestic market by the Dangote refinery and importers.

Nigeria imported approximately 1.31 billion litres of petrol in December 2025, according to NMDPRA. During the same period, the Dangote refinery supplied 992 million litres, showing a notable contribution from domestic refining compared to November.

In the month under review, total petrol supply was 74.2 million litres per day: imports accounted for 42.2 million litres per day, while Dangote supplied 32 million litres per day. This indicated that about 10 million litres per day were not trucked out during the month.

“Domestic supply is volumes received into coastal depots plus volumes trucked out from domestic refineries. PMS supply in December 2025 increased due to significant improvement in supply from DPRP (19.5 ML/day to 32 ML/day).”

The N1.58tn estimate underscores the significant cost burden of petrol on Nigerian households and businesses, even as domestic supply from the Dangote refinery and imports helped stabilise availability.

It also highlights how fuel expenditure continues to absorb a large share of consumer spending in a fully deregulated downstream market.

The Nigeria Customs Service, Kaduna Area Command, said it collected a total of N14.6bn as revenue in the last quarter of 2025.

In a recent statement, the Public Relations Officer of the command, Dauda Adamu, explained that the figure increased by N3.8bn when compared to the N10.8bn collected in the same period in 2024, representing a 35 per cent increase.

“The command generated the sum of N14.6bn as revenue for the period under review. This can be compared to N10.8bn generated in the corresponding period of last year, 2024. There is therefore an increase of N3.8bn, representing an increase of 35 per cent,” he said.

Adamu explained that the feat is a testament to the diligence, professionalism and commitment of the officers and men of the command, who worked tirelessly to ensure that the command met and exceeded its revenue targets

“It also shows our steadfast commitment to the growth of our national economy,” he added.

The PRO stated that, in addition to the revenue, the command’s activities have improved tremendously, and this has brought greater success, which is evident in its monthly revenue collections from October to December.

“In October, we raked in N5.1bn; in November, we made N3.8bn, while in December our revenue collection leapt to N5.6bn,” he stressed.

Adamu emphasised that the command will continue to take necessary measures to improve toll collections, with adequate support from other service units.

“We shall maintain success through synergy and continued dialogue by engaging and sensitising the local and trader communities while discharging our statutory responsibilities of enforcing compliance with government fiscal policies,” he added.

According to him, the core mandate of the command remains the generation of revenue for the Federal Government, facilitation of legitimate trade and protection of national economic security.

Adamu reiterated that the success recorded by the command in the area of revenue collection in the last three months of 2025 could be attributed to motivation from the management of the service, which has boosted the morale of officers.

He also hinted at the continuous deployment of intelligence and reconnaissance by the monitoring compliance team as part of the measures the command took to ensure success.

“At this time, I must commend the dedication of my officers and men and the cooperation of other units, especially the Customs Intelligence Unit, the Valuation Unit and the Customs Police Unit, in their prompt actions. It has really contributed to the success of the command. Our achievement is in line with the policy drive of the Comptroller-General of Customs, Adewale Adeniyi, who has championed the principle of consolidation, collaboration and innovation. His visionary leadership and enabling support have been crucial in heightening our potential and have driven these spectacular results,” he stated.

Adamu expressed gratitude to the stakeholders for their prompt duty payments and encouraged them to maintain their commitment.

“We also assure them that the command remains committed to fulfilling its mandate as outlined in the Nigerian Customs Service Act (NCS Act, 2023),” he concluded.

The Kaduna Area Command is one of the operational area commands of the NCS, established to oversee customs administration, revenue generation, trade facilitation and anti-smuggling operations within its jurisdiction. Strategically located in Kaduna State, the command plays a critical role in customs activities in Nigeria’s North-West and parts of the North-Central regions, particularly given Kaduna’s position as a major commercial and transportation hub linking northern Nigeria with the southern ports.

The Central Bank of Nigeria was expected to conduct its second Treasury bills auction for January 2026 on Wednesday, offering instruments worth N1.15tn, as strong liquidity in the banking system collides with rising borrowing needs and cautious interest rate expectations.

The auction would span the three standard maturities of 91 days, 182 days, and 364 days, continuing the apex bank’s heavy reliance on short-term domestic instruments to fund government operations and manage liquidity.

Market participants say the outcome would be closely watched for signals on the direction of short-term interest rates, especially amid mixed inflation trends and sustained monetary tightening.

Data from the offer circular seen on Wednesday show that N150bn has been earmarked for the 91-day bills, N200bn for the 182-day tenor, while the bulk of the offer, N800bn, is allocated to the one-year bills.

Dealers say the structure reflects persistent investor preference for longer-dated securities that provide relatively higher yields in an uncertain rate environment.

Market operators note that the dominance of the 364-day bills shows both the government’s funding strategy and investors’ desire to lock in returns, given uncertainty over inflation sustainability and future policy direction.

Recent auctions have consistently shown stronger demand at the long end of the curve, even as the central bank seeks to mop up excess liquidity. Despite softer inflation prints in recent months, spot rates are widely expected to remain firm or edge higher.

Analysts point to concerns about inflation reversals, exchange rate pressures, and the central bank’s preference for maintaining tight financial conditions. In December, the stop rate on the 91-day bills rose to 15.80 per cent from 15.50 per cent, while the 182-day tenor increased to 16.50 per cent from 15.95 per cent.

One-year bills were sold at 18.47 per cent, up from 17.51 per cent, reinforcing expectations of elevated yields across the curve.

The bank had also raised rates at earlier auctions even as headline inflation eased in November, signalling caution over the durability of the disinflation trend and the need to support exchange rate stability.

Activity in the secondary Treasury bills market has remained largely subdued, oscillating between calm and bearish sessions despite ample liquidity. Most maturities closed flat as investors adopted a wait-and-see stance ahead of the primary auction and recent Open Market Operations sales.

Only the April 9, 2026, and January 7, 2027 papers recorded notable yield movements, rising by 58 basis points and 12 basis points respectively, while other tenors were unchanged. Dealers say this reflects selective positioning rather than broad-based selling pressure.

Earlier, the central bank allotted N2.64tn across 203-day and 245-day OMO papers at stop rates of 19.38 per cent and 19.39 per cent. Following the allotment, average Treasury bill yields edged up to 18.14 per cent, reflecting negative sentiment driven by sell-offs in the secondary market.

At the first Treasury bills auction of 2026, the government raised N1.14tn at higher stop rates across all maturities. At the January 7 auction, N108.17bn was raised for the 91-day bills, N48.23bn for the 182-day tenor, and N987.78bn for the 364-day bills, as investors repriced risk-free assets, particularly at the long end of the curve.

Subsequently, yields eased slightly in the secondary market, with the average yield on one-year bills declining to about 18.10 per cent, supported by improved demand for naira-denominated government assets ahead of the latest auction. Longer-dated bills due in January 2027 attracted stronger interest, pushing yields down to around 17.51 per cent.

Analysts project a mild upward bias in yields at the latest auction. Matilda Adefalujo, fixed income analyst at Meristem Stockbrokers, said, “We expect stop rates to hover around current levels, with a mild upward bias at the long end of the curve, given the frontloading of government borrowings.”

She added that maturing bills worth N725.19bn this week are significantly lower than the N1.15tn on offer, reinforcing funding pressures.

“We expect the government to keep rates relatively attractive to sustain investor participation. In addition, the levels at which one-year bills are trading in the secondary market around 17.50 per cent should prompt investors to demand higher rates at the auction,” Adefalujo said.

Nigeria’s 2026 fiscal year carries a projected deficit of N23.85tn, with the Federal Government relying heavily on the domestic market to finance it. The Treasury bills issuance calendar for the first quarter of 2026 indicates planned borrowing of N7.55tn within the first three months, a factor analysts say could keep yields elevated.

Olaolu Boboye, lead economist at CardinalStone, said yields on one-year Treasury bills could range between 18.0 per cent and 20.0 per cent. “Overall, we advise fund managers to play at the short to mid segment of the curve, especially in the first half of 2026,” he said.

Demand has remained strong at recent auctions, with total subscriptions exceeding N1tn since December 2025. At the last auction, investors offered N1.54tn, with N1.38tn directed at the 364-day bills, while the 91-day and 182-day bills attracted significantly lower interest.

Analysts attribute the rising participation to investors positioning to benefit from higher yields in a tightening rate environment.

Meanwhile, the domestic debt market is also bracing for a sizeable bond maturity. The Federal Government is expected to repay about N1.03tn in bond maturities on January 22, 2026.

Analysts at FMDA Research noted that nearly 40 per cent of the maturities are concentrated in the 12.50 per cent FGN January 2026 bond. “Market participants should closely monitor the reinvestment pattern, as the size and concentration of inflows could elevate FX demand and put short-term pressure on the naira,” the firm said.

Analysis based on Debt Management Office data shows that the N1.03tn repayment in 2026 represents the highest bond maturity payout in recent years, compared with about N558bn in 2024 and N430bn in 2025, highlighting the rising cost of public debt.

The repayments come amid Nigeria’s expanding debt stock. According to the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework for 2026–2028, the Federal Government plans to borrow N17.89tn in 2026 to fund a widening budget deficit as revenue projections fall sharply below expenditure needs

The PUNCH earlier reported that the Federal Government moved to significantly scale up domestic borrowing, planning to raise as much as N900bn from its January 2026 bond auction.

The amount doubles the N450bn it targeted in January 2025, as fiscal pressures and refinancing needs continue to mount.

The Nigerian Exchange Limited closed Wednesday’s trading session on a positive note, as equities gained marginally amid broad-based buying interest that lifted market capitalisation by N6.88bn.

At the close of trading, the total market capitalisation of listed equities rose to N106.44tn from the N106.43tn recorded in the previous session. At the same time, the All-Share Index inched up by 10.77 points, or 0.01 per cent, to close at 166,267.60, compared with 166,256.83 on Tuesday.

Market activity was mixed, as a total of 822.73 million shares valued at N24.93bn were exchanged in 43,514 deals. This represented a 3 per cent improvement in trading volume and a 25 per cent increase in turnover, although the number of deals declined by 4 per cent when compared with the preceding trading day.

In terms of market breadth, sentiment remained firmly positive, with 54 gainers outweighing 24 losers across the 130 equities that participated in trading. NCR Nigeria led the gainers’ chart, appreciating by 10 per cent to close at N171.05 per share. It was followed by McNichols Plc, which also gained 10 per cent to close at N6.93, while RT Briscoe Plc advanced by 10 per cent to N4.95. Jaiz Bank added 9.99 per cent to close at N7.93, and May & Baker Nigeria Plc rose by 9.95 per cent to N43.65

On the losers’ table, UPDC Real Estate Investment Trust topped the list, shedding 9.68 per cent to close at N8.40 per unit. Champion Breweries declined by 9.31 per cent to N19.00, while Secure Electronic Technology lost 6.78 per cent to close at N1.10. Coronation Insurance dropped by 6.69 per cent to N3.35, and Equity Assurance fell by 6.00 per cent to N47.00.

Trading activity was dominated by Zichis Agro Allied Industries, which recorded the highest volume with 69.22 million shares traded. It was followed by Secure Electronic Technology with 54.80 million shares, Access Holdings with 40.11 million shares, and Zenith Bank with 38.11 million shares.

In value terms, Stanbic IBTC Holdings emerged as the most traded stock, with transactions worth N2.78bn. Zenith Bank followed closely with trades valued at N2.74bn, while Nigerian Breweries recorded N2.44bn in traded value.

GTCO and Aradel Holdings also featured among the top value drivers, with trades valued at N2.17bn and N1.44bn, respectively.

Seplat Energy Plc, a Nigerian independent energy company listed on the Nigerian Exchange Limited and the London Stock Exchange, has commenced gas production from its 300 MMcfd ANOH gas project.

The project began supplying gas to Indorama Petrochemical Plant following the completion of an 11km Indorama gas export pipeline and receipt of regulatory approval from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission on 16 January 2026. Four upstream wells, on standby since November 2025, were brought online to facilitate the gas flow.

Since the first gas, wet gas production has stabilised at 40-52 MMscfd, while condensate production has reached 2.0-2.5 kboepd, with expectations to increase as the plant ramps up to its design capacity of 300 MMcfd. Preparations are also underway to sell processed gas to Nigeria LNG on an interruptible offtake basis.

“Seplat Energy Plc is pleased to announce that the 300 MMcfd ANOH gas project has achieved first gas. Since the first gas, wet gas production has been stabilising, delivering 40-52 MMscfd of processed gas directly from the ANOH gas plant to the Indorama Petrochemical Plant. Condensate production has reached 2.0-2.5 kboepd and is expected to increase with gas production as the plant ramps up to design capacity,” the notice partly reads.

The ANOH gas plant, a joint venture between Seplat Energy and Nigerian Gas Infrastructure Company, consists of two 150 MMscfd gas processing units, LPG recovery and condensate stabilisation units, a 16MW power plant, and supporting facilities. The plant operates with zero routine flares and is part of Seplat’s strategy to achieve its onshore End of Routine Flaring programme.

Seplat holds a 50 per cent equity interest in ANOH Gas Processing Company and will earn income from wet gas sales and dividends from the joint venture. The project also adds to Seplat’s LPG production capacity at Sapele and Bonny River Terminal, supplying the domestic market with clean cooking fuel.

Commenting, the Chief Executive Officer of Seplat Energy, Roger Brown, said the project increases the company’s onshore gas processing capacity to over 850 MMscfd and is expected to contribute materially to its 2030 production target of 200 kboepd.

“ANOH is the first of the seven critical gas development projects identified by the Federal Government of Nigeria to commence operations. It is an important strategic project for Seplat, our partner NGIC, and Nigeria as a whole. It has taken a significant amount of commitment and hard work to complete the project in a part of the onshore Niger Delta with limited gas pipeline infrastructure, and we are extremely proud of this achievement.

“ANOH will provide material income streams for Seplat, reduce our carbon intensity and contribute significantly to the 2030 production target of 200 kboepd, set at our recent CMD. It will also increase energy access for Nigerians in terms of both power and clean cooking fuel for the local communities while advancing delivery of our mission to support economic prosperity in Nigeria.”

Stocks closed higher on Tuesday as the Nigerian Exchange reversed losses from the previous session, with market capitalisation rising by N93.48bn to N106.44tn from N106.34tn on Monday.

The All-Share Index also edged up by 144.33 points, or 0.09 per cent, to close at 166,256.83 points, compared with 166,112.50 points in the prior session, reflecting renewed investor interest in select equities.

Trading activity improved in both volume and value terms, although the deal count declined. A total of 795.46 million shares valued at N19.98bn were exchanged in 45,390 deals, representing a 26 per cent increase in volume and a 35 per cent rise in turnover, while deals fell by 22 per cent compared with the previous trading day.

In total, 130 equities participated in trading, with 39 gaining and 25 losing. Red Star Express led the gainers, appreciating by 10 per cent to close at N15.95 per share. It was followed by Deap Capital Management & Trust, NPF Microfinance Bank, and NCR Nigeria, which gained 10 per cent, 10 per cent, and 9.97 per cent, respectively.

On the losers’ chart, Aluminium Extrusion Industries declined by 9.95 per cent to N17.20 per share, while Jaiz Bank shed 9.88 per cent to close at N7.21. FTN Cocoa Processors and UPDC also recorded losses of 8.44 per cent and 8.06 per cent, respectively.

Tantalizers recorded the highest trading volume with 87.0 million shares exchanged, followed by Secure Electronic Technology with 74.2 million shares, Zichis Agro Allied Industries with 69.6 million shares, and Zenith Bank with 49.1 million shares.

In value terms, GTCO topped the chart with trades worth N3.79bn, followed by Zenith Bank at N3.53bn, Aradel Holdings at N2.80bn, MTN Nigeria at N964.6m, and Access Holdings at N692.0m, as investors repositioned portfolios amid cautious optimism in the market.