The Nigerian Exchange closed the curtain on April 2026 with a performance that can only be described as a “bullish masterclass”, despite a stark divergence in sectoral fortunes. Propelled by massive gains in industrial heavyweights and a surge in investor confidence, the market capitalisation hit a staggering N155.994tn, marking a month where investors walked away with N2.68tn in total gains.

The final week of the month saw the All-Share Index leap 7.33 per cent to close at 242,277.81 points. This rally pushed the Month-to-Date return to a robust 20.36 per cent, the strongest monthly showing of the year so far, while Year-to-Date returns accelerated to 55.69 per cent.

Sectoral divergence

The headline figures, however, mask a tale of two markets. While the broader index soared, the banking sector, traditionally the market’s bellwether, faced a brutal reckoning. The NGX Banking Index tumbled 5.52 per cent during the week, largely dragged down by a sell-off in Tier-1 lenders.

The most dramatic casualty was United Bank for Africa, which saw its share price plummet by 22.27 per cent. This sharp decline followed the bank’s unexpected decision not to announce a full-year dividend, catching income-hungry investors off guard in a high-inflation environment where yields are paramount. Similarly, Access Holdings and FBN Holdings dipped 13.17 per cent and 13.80 per cent, respectively, as investors rotated capital out of financials to chase growth elsewhere.

Conversely, the Industrial Goods sector became the market’s primary engine, gaining 16.89 per cent. This was fuelled by a “buying frenzy” in cement stocks, with BUA Cement (+24.78%) and Dangote Cement (+8.99%) leading the charge. This rotation suggests that investors are increasingly betting on infrastructure-led growth as the Nigerian economy shows signs of structural recovery.

April surge

Market analysts point to a potent mix of robust corporate earnings, a stabilising naira, and improved macroeconomic liquidity as the catalysts for this record-breaking month. With foreign exchange reserves rising above $45bn, foreign portfolio investors are showing renewed interest in large-cap Nigerian equities.

“Performance was driven by strong buying in large-cap names… The gains were supported by positive earnings releases across some of these names, reflecting resilience in the face of previous economic headwinds,” noted a market analyst at Meristem Securities.

However, the report also highlighted the sensitivity of the current market to corporate actions. “Gains were partially offset by profit-taking, with pressure concentrated in the banking sector, where sell-offs were seen in UBA following no full-year dividend announcement. This triggered a ripple effect across the sector as investors re-evaluated their positions,” according to the NGX Weekly Market Summary.

Despite the banking volatility, sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive. Market breadth, a key indicator of investor participation, improved to 0.98x, supported by a 28.29 per cent jump in trading volume and a 34.22 per cent increase in total value traded.

Capital raising, resilience

As the market enters May, liquidity remains high. Even with a four-day trading week (shortened by the Workers’ Day public holiday), turnover hit 4.842 billion shares worth N287.756bn.

Nigeria is set to further benefit from rising foreign exchange inflows as global crude oil prices surge above $105 per barrel, driven by escalating Middle East tensions that have tightened supply expectations, boosting revenues and supporting naira stability,

With Brent crude trading above $105 per barrel, well above Nigeria’s 2026 federal budget benchmark of $64.85, the ongoing global oil rally is expected to significantly strengthen Nigeria’s fiscal position, improve foreign exchange inflows, and support naira stability.

Analysts say that if geopolitical tensions escalate into a full-scale conflict disrupting the Strait of Hormuz – a critical passage for roughly 20 per cent of global crude shipments – oil prices could spike further to as high as $150 per barrel. Such a scenario would deliver a major windfall for oil-exporting countries like Nigeria, potentially improving external reserves and boosting government revenue.

The recent price surge reflects growing geopolitical risk premiums, particularly linked to heightened tensions between the United States and Iran, a key Middle Eastern oil producer. Market concerns have also been amplified by disruptions in other supply regions, including unplanned outages in Kazakhstan and weather-related production constraints in the United States caused by Winter Storm Fern.

Oil prices have remained on an upward trajectory for months, rising above $105 per barrel as fears intensified over possible U.S. military escalation in the Middle East. While markets had initially anticipated oversupply conditions in 2026, persistent geopolitical tensions, sanctions on Russian oil flows, and sustained demand from China have altered the outlook, keeping prices elevated.

For Nigeria, where over 80 per cent of government revenue is linked to oil earnings, the development presents a significant macroeconomic opportunity. Higher crude prices typically translate into improved fiscal revenues, stronger external buffers, and enhanced capacity for economic stabilisation.

CBN reforms

The Central Bank of Nigeria, under Governor Olayemi Cardoso, has implemented reforms that are expected to further amplify the benefits of higher oil receipts. These include foreign exchange market unification, improved liquidity management, and measures to attract foreign capital inflows. The reforms have also helped narrow the gap between official and parallel market exchange rates.

Recent data from the CBN indicates that the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market rate strengthened to N1,396.99/$1 on Thursday from N1,400.48/$1 the previous day, marking the naira’s return below the psychologically significant N1,400/$1 threshold for the first time in over a year.

Market operators say the development reflects improved confidence in Nigeria’s macroeconomic direction, supported by stronger external inflows, rising reserves, and policy stability. President of the Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria, Aminu Gwadabe, said the naira has maintained relative stability across markets in recent months, reducing volatility that had previously characterised the foreign exchange space.

Foreign reserves have also continued to strengthen. Data shows that reserves stood at $48.44bn as of April 23, 2026, covering more than 12 months of import needs. Analysts project that the figure could rise to $51bn by year-end, in line with the CBN’s target of $51.04bn.

The apex bank also reports that reserves are being rebuilt organically through improved market operations, stronger non-oil exports, and increased capital inflows, rather than external borrowing.

Cardoso explained that Nigeria’s external position has improved significantly, noting that the current account balance rose over 85 per cent to $5.28bn in Q2 from $2.85bn in Q1. He added that oil production averaged 1.45 to 1.52 million barrels per day in 2025, while non-oil exports recorded growth of more than 18 per cent year-on-year.

“While oil production improved modestly to an average of 1.45–1.52 million barrels per day in 2025, the truly encouraging development is the strong performance of non-oil exports. Supported by ongoing reforms and greater exchange-rate flexibility, non-oil exports have grown by more than 18 per cent year-on-year,” he said.

Cardoso also noted that diaspora remittances increased by about 12 per cent, supported by improved transparency and settlement systems, with further gains expected as the Non-Resident BVN framework expands in 2026.

Experts speak

Financial experts say the combination of oil windfalls and structural reforms is reinforcing Nigeria’s macroeconomic resilience. Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company, Bismarck Rewane, estimates the fair value of the naira at N1,257 per dollar, suggesting that the currency remains undervalued by about 11 per cent under purchasing power parity analysis.

He noted that exchange rates typically converge toward PPP levels over time, reinforcing expectations of medium-term currency stability if reforms are sustained.

Global economist Charlie Robertson also observed that a weaker dollar environment is beneficial for emerging markets like Nigeria, noting that it supports currency stability and capital inflows. “The weak dollar is dislocating many markets, but it is good for Africa, as we are seeing with the naira,” he said.

Beyond oil, Nigeria’s macroeconomic outlook is being shaped by structural reforms across fiscal and monetary policy. Economist Prof. Abiodun Adedipe highlighted key reforms, including fuel subsidy removal, forex market reforms, tax restructuring, and banking recapitalisation, all of which he said are improving efficiency and fiscal discipline.

He noted that subsidy removal alone has eliminated over $10.7bn in annual fiscal waste, while banking sector reforms are positioning financial institutions to support a projected $1tn economy.

Nigeria’s demographic and structural advantages, including a youthful population estimated at over 237 million and rising internet penetration of about 48 per cent, also support long-term growth potential. Improved urbanisation, telecom expansion, and digital adoption are expected to deepen productivity and expand economic activity.

The Central Bank has also strengthened coordination with fiscal authorities to enhance macroeconomic stability. Cardoso said the discontinuation of central bank deficit financing, alongside revenue reforms and Treasury Single Account improvements, has strengthened fiscal discipline.

“This stance is unequivocal as there will be no return to the practice of financing fiscal deficits by the Central Bank,” he said.

He added that sustained collaboration between fiscal and monetary authorities will be essential to maintaining price stability and restoring purchasing power.

As global oil markets remain volatile, Nigeria stands to benefit from sustained price elevation, provided reforms continue to anchor investor confidence, strengthen institutions, and improve economic efficiency.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery is set to supply aviation fuel directly to airlines in Nigeria at N1,820 per litre, as the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry has urged the Federal Government to help facilitate measures to lower airlines’ operating costs and prevent a sectoral collapse.

A senior official of the Dangote Group confirmed the move by the $20bn Lekki-based refinery exclusively to our correspondent on Sunday, stating that Dangote supplies over 90 per cent of the country’s aviation fuel needs.

The refinery has already commenced direct Jet A-1 supply to Ethiopian Airlines, according to its Managing Director, David Bird.

The official, who spoke to one of our correspondents in confidence due to the lack of authorisation to speak on the matter, said airlines and other interested buyers could approach the refinery to lift jet fuel at the new price.

“Anyone, including local airlines, can buy their requirements from our petroleum refinery,” the official said when asked if the Dangote refinery would supply jet fuel directly to local airlines.

The official confirmed that “N1,820 is the price at which we are selling at our loading bay,” adding that the refinery cannot be subsidising airlines in the face of high oil prices. The source confirmed that Dangote had been subsidising the prices of petrol and diesel, but aviation fuel would be sold at the competitive market price.

Dangote’s direct sale to airlines is coming at a time when the Airline Operators of Nigeria are accusing the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria of overpricing.

Another reliable source in the organisation told The PUNCH that the refinery would now publish prices for the sake of transparency. “Yes, as of today, Sunday, our jet fuel is N1,820 a litre. Note that this price is not stable.

It changes because of the volatility in the global market.

“The US-Iran war has dealt a heavy blow to everybody, and we are not insulated from the global shock. Henceforth, we will be publishing the prices so that both the airlines and the marketers will know what is happening in the market. I think transparency is now important,” the source said.

The PUNCH reports that the war in the Middle East triggered an oil price surge when the Strait of Hormuz was blocked by Iran. From less than $70 per barrel on February 28, Brent, the global benchmark for crude, jumped above $120 on Thursday before it dropped to $108 over the weekend.

Consequently, Dangote raised its petrol gantry price from N774 in February to N1,275 as of the time of filing this report. The oil price hike also affected diesel and aviation fuel.

In the aviation sector, airlines threatened to shut down due to an over 350 per cent rise in Jet A-1 prices until the government intervened last week. The Vice President of the Airline Operators of Nigeria, Allen Onyema, had recently disclosed that aviation fuel prices skyrocketed from about N900 per litre before the Iran crisis to between N2,700 and N2,900, with some marketers selling as high as N3,500.

Earlier, in a letter dated April 14, 2026, and addressed to the Executive Secretary of the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria, Clement Isong, the President of AON, Abdulmunaf Sarina, said the surge in the price of Jet A1 had become unbearable for operators.

The PUNCH reports that AON had in its letter said, “The price of Jet-A1 as sold by marketers had risen significantly from the initial N900/litre as of February 28, 2026, to N3,300/litre as of today. This represents an increase of over 300 per cent.

“This astronomical and artificial increase is not commensurate with the rise in crude oil prices and is well above international market benchmarks, which reflect approximately a 30 per cent increase in crude oil cost. For the past weeks, airlines have endured this burden and continued operations out of patriotism and in the spirit of service to the nation. However, the situation has now become unbearable and clearly unsustainable,” the letter stated.

It urged MEMAN to prevail on its members to proportionately adjust jet fuel prices in line with international market realities, “as airlines can no longer sustain purchases at the current exorbitant rates.”

Responding, MEMAN attributed the rising cost of aviation turbine kerosene to global factors, particularly disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The marketers expressed surprise at the N3,300 per litre price referenced by airline operators, stating that their internal survey showed significantly lower prices. The marketers said they would not be able to disclose a particular price, but N3,300 is over N1,000 above the normal price.

“In light of the above, we must express our surprise at the price of N3,300 per litre stated in your letter as the price being charged to some airline operators. MEMAN members do not discuss pricing, as this will be against competition law; however, the price of N3,300 is over N1,000 higher than our average market survey price of Jet A1 carried out for this exercise, after receipt of your letter,” MEMAN explained.

Last Monday, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority recommended that the price of aviation fuel should range between N1,760 and N1,988 per litre in Lagos and N1,809 and N2,037 per litre in Abuja.

Access Holdings Plc’s audited financial results for the year ended 31 December 2025 revealed a fortress-like balance sheet, with shareholders’ funds climbing 15 per cent to N4.33tn, signalling a definitive shift in its corporate evolution, moving away from a decade of aggressive expansion towards a model centred on “value over scale”.

The Group’s Profit Before Tax crossed the N1tn threshold for the first time, settling at N1.01tn. This 16.2 per cent increase from the previous year highlights a resilient performance despite a transitional and often volatile global operating environment.

While the banking subsidiary remains the primary engine, contributing 97 per cent of total revenue, the 2025 results highlight a significant deepening of the Group’s ecosystem. Net fees and commission income surged 40.9 per cent to N585.1bn, a testament to the success of its non-banking verticals.

The Group also demonstrated sharper operational teeth, successfully driving down its cost-to-income ratio from 56.7 per cent in 2024 to 51.7 per cent in 2025.

The leadership team and the report itself offer a clear narrative of an institution transitioning from “growth at all costs” to “disciplined value creation”.

Commenting on the results, Group Managing Director/CEO of Access Holdings, Innocent Ike, said, “We have now entered a more deliberate optimisation phase, with a stronger emphasis on returns on capital, earnings quality, and long-term value creation. Our 2025 performance reflects both the resilience of the Access franchise and the strength of the institution we have built over time.”

“This growth highlights not only the scale of the Group’s operations but also the deepening trust of customers, counterparties, and investors. Total assets increased 24.3 per cent to N51.57tn, while customer deposits grew 53.4 per cent to N34.56tn,” an official statement, Access Holdings 2025 Audited Report, stated.

It further read, “Africa remains one of the most compelling long-term growth frontiers globally. Our role is not only to participate in that growth but also to help shape and finance it. At Access Holdings, we have built an institution designed to endure, anchored on strong governance, disciplined execution, and a clear strategic direction. Our focus remains on delivering consistent, high-quality, risk-adjusted returns while building a financial institution that will stand the test of time.”

The Group’s performance was bolstered by an improving Nigerian economy. With national GDP growth strengthening to 3.9 per cent and foreign exchange reserves rising above $45bn, the environment provided a fertile ground for credit expansion and capital market activity. This was mirrored in the NGX All Share Index, which gained over 51 per cent during the period.

As Access Holdings looks towards the 2026 fiscal year, the mandate is clear: maintain the N1tn momentum while ensuring that every naira of capital deployed returns maximum value to the shareholders who have now built a N4.33tn equity base.