The analysts at Coronation Asset Management have projected increased capital market activities as banks push to meet the March 2026 recapitalisation deadline set by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

This was disclosed in its Year in Review and 2026 Outlook published on Tuesday.

According to the CBN, 16 banks have met the new capital thresholds, with the others expected to do the same in the weeks leading up to the expiration of the deadline.

Commenting on the process and its impact on the sector in the outgone year, the report read, “The defining theme has been the industry-wide recapitalisation drive, spurring a series of capital market activities as banks race to meet the March 2026 deadline. The exit from the CBN’s forbearance scheme has also had a significant effect in the second half of the year. While investor sentiment has been mixed, leading to sector underperformance relative to the broader market, the outlook is anchored by this strengthening of capital bases and an expected normalisation of earnings towards core banking activities in 2026.”

“Most Tier-1 and some Tier-2 banks, including GTCO, Zenith, UBA, Stanbic IBTC, Jaiz, and Access Holdings, have completed their capital-raising programmes through rights issues, public offers, and private placements. While others like FCMB, FBN Holdings, Fidelity, and Sterling have CBN approval for multiple offers already in place or in the pipeline.

With about three months to go, we expect to see more capital market activities and final calls on capital raise programmes.”

On the profitability front, the analysts affirmed that the Nigerian banking sector remained broadly resilient through 2025, supported by strong balance sheet expansion and solid liquidity, but headline profitability softened.

“High funding costs, rising impairments, and regulatory changes, including forbearance withdrawal, the windfall tax on foreign exchange gains, and the ongoing recapitalisation drive, have impacted the sector. Profitability has risen more softly compared to last year’s record earnings, with industry pre-tax profit rising by 5.2 per cent year-on-year. This smaller growth is due to a combination of higher loan-loss provisions, higher operating costs amid persistent inflationary pressures and elevated interest rates.”

It added, “Manufacturing and trade-related exposures have accounted for a notable share of the increase in impairments, as import-dependent borrowers contend with tighter FX access and elevated input costs. Meanwhile, the oil and gas upstream segment has shown relative resilience, supported by improved crude prices and stronger cash flows so far in the year. In contrast, downstream and power sector loans have seen lower recovery due to rising receivables and delayed tariff adjustments.”

At the capital market, the NGX Banking Index advanced by over 30 per cent year-to-date, but it underperformed the broader NGX All-Share Index, which is up over 50 per cent.

The experts adjudged the sector’s performance to be mixed, reflecting divergent investor sentiment across Tier-1 and mid-tier banks.

“Among the large caps, Zenith Bank (+39.6 per cent ytd), Guaranty Trust Holding Co (+55.1 per cent ytd), Ecobank Transnational Inc (+30.4 per cent ytd), and United Bank for Africa (+17.1 per cent ytd) posted solid gains, supported by strong earnings fundamentals, robust capital positions, and dividend declarations.

“Mid-tier names showed stronger momentum, with Wema Bank (+104.4 per cent ytd), Stanbic IBTC (+82.3 per cent ytd), and Sterling Financial Holdings (+31.3 per cent ytd) recording substantial year-to-date gains, driven by improved profitability and investor rotation into value plays. In contrast, Access Holdings (-12.8 per cent ytd) lagged due to a delay in H1 earnings result publication and uncertainty around dividend payments,” said the firm.

On the outlook for the New Year, Coronation Asset Management said it is anticipating policy rate cuts, which should stimulate lending activity, “while disciplined credit management, improved asset yields, and growth in fee-based income are expected to underpin a gradual recovery in interest income and overall sector performance. We believe the sector is well-positioned to become a major driver of growth in 2026 as macroeconomic stability gradually returns. Improving inflation dynamics, better FX liquidity, and a less volatile interest-rate environment should ease pressure on funding costs and risk assets.

“While declining yields may temper margins, stronger core earnings, expanding loan books, and improved capital flexibility are expected to support profitability and balance sheet growth. With regulatory cleanup largely behind the sector and capital buffers strengthening, banks are better placed to scale lending, support investment activity, and deliver more durable value creation over the medium term.”

The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria has demanded that authorities fully account for an estimated N11.35tn reportedly spent on the rehabilitation of state-owned refineries, warning that continued opacity undermines confidence in the petroleum sector and worsens the country’s energy insecurity.

In its review of Nigeria’s petroleum sector for 2025 and prospects for 2026, signed by the National President, Billy Gillis-Harry, and the spokesman, Joseph Obele, PETROAN said that despite years of heavy public spending on refinery rehabilitation, the facilities have remained largely non-functional or underperforming.

The association stated, “Over the past decade, massive public funds, reportedly around N11.35tn, have been expended on turnaround maintenance and rehabilitation of the four government-owned refineries (Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna), yet the facilities largely remain non-functional or underperforming.”

PETROAN emphasised, “Transparent tracking of funds borrowed and spent must be prioritised. Full forensic audits are essential to restore confidence in public investments. Clear accountability frameworks must be enforced to prevent further waste of public resources.”

It disclosed that approved contracts included “Port Harcourt Refinery: $1.5bn, and “Warri & Kaduna Refineries: Combined $1.48bn,” noting that the scale of expenditure had heightened concerns across the downstream sector.

According to PETROAN, “These significant outlays, coupled with the enduring non-operational status of the refineries, have prompted investigations by security agencies and legislative oversight bodies into allegations of fraud, mismanagement, and lack of accountability.”

The association said transparency must be prioritised, stressing that “Transparent tracking of funds borrowed and spent must be prioritised.” It added that “Full forensic audits are essential to restore confidence in public investments,” while insisting that “Clear accountability frameworks must be enforced to prevent further waste of public resources.”

PETROAN linked the refinery failures to broader downstream challenges in 2025, including supply constraints and increased dependence on imports.

It noted that the Port Harcourt Refinery, Nigeria’s largest state-owned refining complex, “was shut down on May 24, 2025, after a short period of production, following persistent operational challenges, mechanical failures, and the inability to sustain stable commercial production after rehabilitation efforts.”

The association warned that the shutdown has continued to constrain domestic refining capacity, increasing reliance on imported petroleum products and intensifying pressure on foreign exchange demand and pump prices.

It also expressed concern over the social impact of the closure, stating that “Most worrisome is the fact that the refinery shutdown has brought hardship to members of the host communities.”

Beyond refinery challenges, PETROAN said the downstream market was destabilised by intense price competition in 2025. It stated that “the downstream sector experienced intense price competition between petroleum importers and local refiners,” adding that “this price war led to frequent pump price adjustments resulting to loses of billions of naira to our members, market uncertainty, and reduced margins for retail outlet operators.”

While acknowledging short-term consumer relief, the association said “long-term sustainability and investment confidence were negatively affected.”

PETROAN also reviewed the Naira-for-Crude policy introduced to support domestic refining, noting that “approximately 250,000 – 300,000 barrels per day of crude oil were allocated to domestic refineries under this policy.”

It said the initiative “helped ease foreign exchange demand for petroleum importers and supported local refineries with steady crude feedstock,” but added that its effectiveness was limited by operational issues.

The association observed that “Implementation gaps, delays, and inconsistencies in crude allocation affected refinery operations, while pricing disputes and supply constraints also weakened the policy’s impact.

On crude oil production, PETROAN noted a modest recovery in 2025, with output at “Approximately 1.3 – 1.5 million barrels per day, including condensates,” but stressed that production remained below Nigeria’s OPEC quota due to persistent oil theft and pipeline vandalism, aging infrastructure and operational inefficiencies, and limited upstream investment and funding constraints.

The association said “increased crude production is critical for sustaining domestic refining, improving foreign exchange inflows, and ensuring downstream supply stability.”

Looking ahead to 2026, PETROAN said improved product availability was expected but warned that affordability would depend on exchange rate stability, crude supply consistency, and regulatory balance.

The association reiterated its recommendations, including refinery privatisation, transparent crude allocation, continuous stakeholder engagement, and accountability in public investments, stating that these measures were necessary to stabilise the sector.

The Nigerian Exchange Limited recorded a significant increase in value in 2025, with total market capitalisation rising by N36.46tn year-to-date, reflecting sustained investor confidence and renewed interest in equities.

At the beginning of the year, trading on Thursday, 2 January 2025, opened with a market capitalisation of N62.92tn and an All-Share Index of 103,180.14 points. By the end of February, on Friday, 28 February 2025, the market capitalisation had climbed to N67.19tn, while the All-Share Index advanced to 107,821.39 points, underscoring the steady upward momentum in the equities market.

At the close of the latest trading session, the NGX’s total market capitalisation stood at N99.2tn. A total of 1.23bn shares valued at N35.13bn were exchanged in 27,872 deals. Compared with the previous trading day, market activity declined, with trading volume falling by 74 per cent, turnover decreasing by 10 per cent and the number of deals dropping by 20 per cent.

Market breadth closed positive, as 47 equities recorded price appreciation, while 16 stocks ended the session in negative territory out of the 128 listed equities that participated in trading. Aluminium Extrusion Industries led the gainers with a 9.9 per cent increase to close at N21.65 per share. It was followed by Austin Laz and Company, Meyer Plc and C and I Leasing, which gained 9.82 per cent, 9.75 per cent and 9.6 per cent, respectively.

On the losers’ chart, Neimeth International Pharmaceuticals topped the list, shedding 9.38 per cent to close at N5.80 per share. Tantalizers declined by 6.72 per cent, and International Breweries dropped by 4.44 per cent, while NPF Microfinance Bank lost 3.13 per cent.

In terms of trading activity, Chams Plc recorded the highest volume with 710.28m shares exchanged, followed by Zenith Bank with 58.76m shares, Access Holdings with 57.60m shares and FCMB Group with 44.06m shares. On the value chart, Aradel Holdings led transactions with deals worth N9.52bn, followed by Seplat Energy with N7.12bn and Zenith Bank with N3.67bn.

Nigeria produced a total of 443.25 million barrels of crude oil between January and October 2025, according to crude oil and condensate production data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission.

According to the NUPRC report, this translates to an average of about 1.46 million barrels per day. Despite intermittent improvements, the output level meant that Africa’s largest oil producer remained below its 1.5 million barrels per day crude oil quota set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, achieving about 97 per cent of the quota during the 10-month period.

A breakdown of the figures shows that January recorded the highest crude oil production during the period at 47.70 million barrels, while February was the weakest month at 41.02 million barrels.

Output recovered in March and April and remained relatively strong through May, June, and July before easing in August and September. Crude oil production in October stood at 43.44 million barrels.

In addition to crude oil, Nigeria produced 60.55 million barrels of condensate between January and October. This comprised 17.38 million barrels of blended condensate and 43.17 million barrels of unblended condensate, reflecting the growing role of condensates in supporting overall oil output.

Combined crude oil and condensate production during the period amounted to 503.79 million barrels, equivalent to an average total oil production of about 1.66 million barrels per day.

However, this performance fell short of the Federal Government’s 2025 budget oil production benchmark of over two million barrels per day, which covers both crude oil and condensate.

At an average of 1.66 million barrels per day, Nigeria underperformed the budget target by about 340,000 barrels per day, representing a shortfall of roughly 17 per cent, despite condensate volumes boosting headline production.

Data from the commission show that average daily oil production in October stood at 1.60 million barrels per day, comprising 1.40 million barrels per day of crude oil and about 196,000 barrels per day of condensate. This placed Nigeria’s crude oil output for the month at 93 per cent of its OPEC allocation.

The continued gap between actual production and both OPEC and budget benchmarks has implications for government revenue and foreign exchange earnings, as crude oil exports remain a major source of fiscal funding.

While the Federal Government has pledged to raise oil output through improved security, reduced crude theft, and infrastructure rehabilitation, the January to October figures indicate that structural and operational challenges continue to constrain Nigeria’s oil production, even as condensate output provides some support to overall volumes.

For the 2026 fiscal year, the Federal Government is projecting about N60.97tn in oil revenue, lower than the earnings anticipated in the 2025 budget, reflecting more conservative assumptions on crude oil prices and production.

The projection is based on an analysis and the calculation of data contained in the 2026 Appropriation Bill presented to a joint session of the National Assembly in Abuja by President Bola Tinubu recently.

According to the President, the 2026 revenue estimate is anchored on a benchmark crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel, daily production of 1.84 million barrels, and an average exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar.

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, has said repeatedly that Nigeria can achieve the production of three million barrels of oil per day in 2025.

“When we came, we barely did a million barrels. Today, we are doing 1.8 mbpd, and we can do more. And those who are responsible for this are more local. And that’s why I’m saying that look, we need to come together and continue on this trajectory. Let’s finish the journey that we have made together. From a million barrels, we have achieved an 80 per cent addition.

“I want to see how we can do 2.5 to three million barrels this year. And we can do it,” Lokpobiri said earlier in the year. However, this has not been achieved as of the time of this report.

Meanwhile, the newly appointed Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum, Mrs Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, has pledged to reposition Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas sector, boost investments, and raise oil and gas production.

Eyesan formally assumed office on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, following a handover from the immediate past Chief Executive, Gbenga Komolafe. According to a statement, the new chief executive outlined her vision during her first town hall meeting with management and staff of the commission.