The World Bank is set to approve a fresh $500m loan to Nigeria next month to boost agricultural productivity, strengthen value chains, and create jobs across participating states.

Details of the planned facility are contained in the World Bank’s Project Information Document on the Nigeria Sustainable Agricultural Value-Chains for Growth, which Saturday PUNCH obtained from the bank’s website on Friday.

According to the document, the project has an estimated approval date of March 30, 2026. The document states that the project has a “Total Operation Cost” of $500m and “Total Financing” of $500m.

It further clarifies that the entire financing will be provided by the International Development Association, with “IDA Credit” amounting to $500m. According to the World Bank, the borrower is the “Federal Republic of Nigeria,” while the implementing agencies are the “Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security and Participating States.”

The proposed development objective of the project is “to increase smallholder productivity and strengthen targeted agricultural value chains in participating states of Nigeria.”

Saturday PUNCH observed that the review process has progressed beyond the appraisal stage to the decision-making stage. Under the decision section of the document, the bank noted that “The review did authorise the team to appraise and negotiate,” signalling that the project has cleared a key internal hurdle ahead of final approval.

The World Bank highlighted Nigeria’s structural challenges, noting that “Creating more and better jobs while addressing food and nutrition insecurity remain some of Nigeria’s key development challenges.”

It added that agriculture remains the largest employer, with “roughly one-third of Nigeria’s working population relying on the sector for their livelihood,” while primary agriculture employs “about 21 million people.”

Despite its vast potential, the sector faces deep constraints. The Bank observed that Nigeria currently imports “approximately $10bn worth of food annually.”

The new project, also known as AGROW, will adopt what the Bank describes as “a private sector-led, public sector-facilitated approach to enhance smallholder farmer productivity, systematically integrate them into structured output markets, and promote value addition.”

According to the document, the initiative aligns with the Federal Government’s Renewed Hope Agenda and seeks to leverage agriculture as a driver of rural employment and income growth.

It is also positioned to mobilise private capital, as the document indicates that the operation is both “MFD-Enabling” and “Private Capital Enabling.”

Structurally, the $500m facility will be deployed across four major components. These include integrating smallholder farmers into competitive value chains, modernising smallholder production, strengthening policy and the enabling environment for private investment in inputs markets, and project coordination and monitoring.

Under the value chain integration component, the project will support aggregation models that connect smallholders with off-takers and agribusinesses, aiming to reduce transaction costs and improve supply reliability.

On the production side, the project will invest in research, extension systems, improved seeds, and digital agriculture platforms to raise yields and climate resilience.

The policy component will address systemic constraints in seed and fertiliser markets and promote responsible land-based investments through the Framework for Responsible and Inclusive Land-Intensive Agriculture. If approved as scheduled at the end of March, the $500m IDA credit will add to Nigeria’s growing portfolio of World Bank-loans.

The PUNCH earlier reported that Nigeria’s debt to the World Bank’s concessional lending arm, the International Development Association, surged by $1.9bn in just one year to reach $18.7bn as of December 31, 2025.

According to the IDA Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the period ended December 31, 2025, Nigeria’s exposure to the bank’s loan portfolio rose significantly from $16.8bn at end-2024, marking an 11.3 per cent year-on-year increase.

The latest figures placed Nigeria as the third-largest borrower in the IDA portfolio, behind Bangladesh ($23.0bn) and Pakistan ($19.4bn), among the top ten countries with the highest exposures.

The sharp rise shows growing reliance on multilateral concessional financing as the Federal Government navigates tightening fiscal space amid global market volatility.

As of June 30, 2025, Nigeria’s external debt stood at $46.98bn, according to the Debt Management Office. Of this amount, the World Bank Group accounted for $19.39bn—comprising $18.04bn from the International Development Association and $1.35bn from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

This means the World Bank holds 41.3 per cent of the total, reinforcing its outsized role in funding Nigeria’s development programmes.

The country’s total public debt increased to N153.29tn as of September 30, 2025, reflecting a steady build-up in both domestic and external obligations within three months, data released by the Debt Management Office on Friday has shown.

According to the DMO, total public debt rose from N152.40tn as of June 30, 2025, to N153.29tn at the end of September.

This represents an increase of N893.87bn quarter-on-quarter.

In dollar terms, the country’s debt stock climbed from $99.66bn in June to $103.94bn in September, indicating a $4.28bn increase within the period.

The dollar-denominated debt stock expanded by 4.29 per cent over the three-month period.

The September data show that total external debt stood at $48.46bn, equivalent to N71.48tn, accounting for 46.63 per cent of the total public debt.

As of June 30, 2025, external debt was $46.98bn, representing 47.14 per cent of the total.

This means external obligations increased by $1.48bn within the quarter.

Domestic debt rose more sharply in dollar terms. It increased from $52.67bn in June to $55.47bn in September, a growth of $2.80bn.

In naira terms, domestic debt stood at N81.82tn in September compared to N80.55tn in June.

Domestic borrowings accounted for 53.37 per cent of total debt in September, slightly higher than 52.86 per cent recorded in June.

The DMO noted that the September external debt figures were converted using the Central Bank of Nigeria’s official exchange rate of N1,474.85 to the dollar.

In contrast, the June figures were converted at N1,529.2105 to the dollar. The stronger exchange rate in September partly offset the naira value of external debt.

A further breakdown of the September external debt stock shows that multilateral creditors remain Nigeria’s largest lenders.

Loans from the World Bank Group and the African Development Bank Group, alongside other multilateral institutions, amounted to $23.41bn, representing 48.31 per cent of total external debt.

Under the multilateral category, the International Development Association accounted for $18.18bn, while the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development stood at $1.36bn.

The African Development Bank was owed $2.15bn, the African Development Fund $1.02bn, and other institutions, such as the Islamic Development Bank and the International Fund for Agricultural Development made up the balance.

Bilateral debt totalled $6.29bn or 12.97 per cent of external debt. China’s Exim Bank accounted for $4.82bn, while France, Japan, India and Germany were also listed among creditors. Loans from the China Development Bank stood at $423.51m.

Commercial borrowings remained significant. Eurobonds accounted for $17.32bn, representing 35.74 per cent of the external debt stock.

Syndicated project loans and a facility from Deutsche Bank brought the commercial sub-total to $1.45bn in addition to Eurobonds.

On the domestic front, Federal Government instruments dominated the debt profile. As of September 30, 2025, FGN Bonds amounted to N61.99tn, accounting for 79.67 per cent of the Federal Government’s domestic debt stock.

Of this, N60.64tn were naira bonds, while N1.35tn represented US dollar bonds converted to naira.

Nigerian Treasury Bills stood at N12.68tn, representing 16.30 per cent of domestic debt. FGN Sukuk accounted for N1.29tn, while FGN Savings Bonds and Green Bonds stood at N97.46bn and N62.36bn, respectively.

Promissory notes totalled N1.69tn, comprising both naira and foreign currency-denominated notes.

The DMO also indicated that domestic debt data for 35 states and the Federal Capital Territory were as of September 30, 2025, while Rivers State’s domestic debt data were as of June 30, 2025.

The figures show that while domestic debt continues to account for a larger share of Nigeria’s public debt stock, external borrowings also rose within the quarter.

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, earlier said that Nigeria was deliberately shifting from expensive external borrowing to a growth model anchored on private capital and domestic reforms.

Edun stated this at the opening session of the G-24 Technical Group Meeting in Abuja, where he delivered a keynote address on the global economy and the need for stronger South-South cooperation.

“Nigeria is deliberately shifting away from a model overly reliant on expensive external borrowing toward a more resilient growth framework powered by domestic reforms, private capital, and diversified financing instruments,” Edun said.

He explained that the new approach was in line with evolving global development finance priorities that emphasise innovative financing, blended instruments and expanded concessional windows.

The naira has strengthened sharply in recent weeks, reaching one of its strongest levels in nearly two years, even as rising foreign portfolio inflows increase the risk of investor profit-taking later in the year, according to a macro update by CardinalStone.

According to the report, the naira has witnessed a steep appreciation in the official market (+6.9 per cent year to date), reaching one of the strongest levels of the past two years (1,347.78/$ on Monday), which indicates improved liquidity conditions in the official foreign-exchange window.

However, the spread between the official and parallel markets persisted, with the parallel market initially trading at about a 5.7 per cent premium before narrowing to roughly 3.2 per cent following renewed FX interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

CardinalStone said the narrowing spread suggests “there was more liquidity in the official window than in the parallel market.”

Last week, the apex bank permitted licensed Bureau de Change operators to access FX through authorised dealers at prevailing market rates, with a weekly purchase limit of $150,000 per BDC subject to KYC requirements. BDCs must also sell unused balances within 24 hours to prevent hoarding, while cash transactions are capped at 25 per cent of total FX trades, with settlement required through licensed financial institutions.

CardinalStone noted that with 82 licensed BDCs, potential supply to the segment could reach about $50m monthly, which is below the more than $1bn supplied monthly before COVID-19.

The disparity, the report said, reflects “material improvements in the FX market that reduced speculative demand and routed most corporate FX requirements to the official window”.

Still, the renewed supply has eased retail FX pressures, helping compress the parallel market premium.

On the foreign portfolio investment side, the analysts warned that continued currency gains could trigger portfolio rebalancing by foreign investors.

“Nigeria’s carry trade remains one of the most compelling across EM and frontier markets, continuing to attract sizable foreign portfolio inflows. We estimate outstanding FPI positioning at roughly $12.0–$14.0bn.

“Working with the assumption that a significant proportion of the 2025 inflows entered the Nigerian market at a rate of N1,500.00/$, we estimate FX gains of 22.4 per cent on currency alone if the naira strengthens to the midpoint of N1,200.00/$ to N1,250.00/$. Such a gain could potentially increase the risk of foreign portfolio exits, especially considering a likely build-up in uncertainties ahead of the general elections,” said the experts.

Ahead of Monday’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting of the CBN, the analysts noted that the indicators likely to shape the committee’s decision were sending mixed signals.

“On one side, inflation is moderating and short-term rates are converging around 22.0 per cent, which is about 500 bps lower than the MPR of 27.0 per cent. On the flipside, the recent body language of the CBN shows low tolerance for liquidity after the governor stated at the National Economic Conference that the liquidity overhang is a major risk to the stability achieved through recent policy reforms.

“So far this year, the CBN has net-issued N10.9 tn through OMO and has left the SDF rate attractive for banks to deposit with the CBN in a bid to avoid liquidity stoking renewed inflationary pressure. The CBN is also concerned about election-related liquidity, which is expected to become more pronounced in the second half of the year. Furthermore, of the total expected liquidity of N44.2 tn in 2026, over 75.0 per cent is expected in the first half of 2026.

It stated, “As such, we perceive that the CBN may be inclined towards holding the policy rate constant to signal its concern about liquidity risk while making an adjustment to the asymmetric corridor to align the SDF rate to OMO yields with a view to guarding the attractiveness of OMO and securing banks’ presence as key counterparties to investing FPIs. We see a 60.0 per cent probability of this view panning out and a 40.0 per cent probability of an indicative 50-100 bps rate cut.”

Looking ahead, CardinalStone said the forward-market pricing suggests a weaker currency trajectory later in the year. Six-month non-deliverable forwards indicate a rate near N1,449.96/$ in the early second half, with CardinalStone’s base-case range set at N1,350–1,450/$ for 2026.

Banks and telecommunications operators in Nigeria have ended a four-year dispute over nearly N300bn owed for Unstructured Supplementary Service Data services, with the debt now fully cleared, the Association of Licensed Telecommunications Operators of Nigeria said.

ALTON’s Chairman, Gbenga Adebayo, announced the resolution on Thursday during an official visit to the Chairman of the Nigerian Communications Commission, Idris Olorunnimbe. He credited the intervention of the NCC, led by its Executive Vice Chairman, Dr Aminu Maida, with bringing the long-standing dispute to a close.

“When Dr Maida assumed office, he inherited significant industry challenges,” Adebayo said. “One of the most difficult was the USSD debt crisis, a debt burden that grew over four years to nearly N300bn. It had become a systemic risk to our sector and the digital financial ecosystem.

Through firm leadership, structured engagement, and decisive coordination, Dr Maida and his team resolved this issue.

Today, there is no outstanding USSD debt. The ecosystem has fully migrated to end-user billing. What was once a looming crisis has been converted into a sustainable framework.”

The clearing of the debt ends years of accusations and counter-accusations between banks and telecom operators, which had threatened the stability of digital financial services in the country.

Adebayo praised the NCC’s leadership for steering the telecom sector through one of its most delicate periods, noting other interventions, including last year’s approval of a 50 per cent USSD tariff. He described the resolution of the debt crisis as a milestone for the telecom and digital finance ecosystem, ensuring sustainability and predictability for operators and service providers.

Nigeria’s telco and bank billing for USSD services transitioned to the end-user billing model in mid-2025, moving charges from bank accounts to customers’ mobile airtime, which is deducted directly by telecom operators. This shift resolved the long-standing dispute in which banks owed operators up to N300bn in unpaid USSD fees.

The transition arose from years of tension between telecom operators, including MTN and Airtel, and banks over USSD revenue sharing, with debts peaking at N250–300bn by 2024. The NCC, in collaboration with the Central Bank of Nigeria, developed the EUB framework to standardise billing, enhance transparency, and support financial inclusion for unbanked users who rely heavily on USSD codes.

Under the EUB system, charges are now deducted directly from mobile airtime at N6.98 per session lasting up to 120 seconds, with user consent prompts issued before each deduction. Banks no longer bill for USSD services; telcos handle them exclusively, with regulatory safeguards preventing double-billing. Users can opt in or out of the service, and banks are required to notify customers in advance of any USSD session charges.

Migration to the EUB model began between June 3 and 18, 2025, following partial debt repayments amounting to N171bn. By February 19, 2026, banks had fully cleared the remaining debt, solidifying the EUB rollout.

The model improves user control through immediate airtime deductions and session notifications, similar to voice and SMS billing. While some critics have expressed concern over potential burdens on low-income users, the transition strengthens telecom revenue sustainability and contributes to the stability of Nigeria’s digital financial ecosystem.