The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has advanced Nigeria’s 2025 oil and gas licensing round to a critical stage, announcing the completion of the pre-qualification process and formally notifying successful applicants, in a move that signals the transition from screening to competitive bidding.

In a statement issued on Tuesday, the commission announced that the milestone, achieved on March 16, 2026, marks the completion of the initial screening phase conducted in accordance with the 2025 Licensing Round Guidelines and sets the stage for the next phase of the exercise.

The notice, signed by the Head of Media and Strategic Communication, Eniola Akinkuotu, confirmed that only applicants who scaled the pre-qualification hurdle would proceed to access the subsurface data required for bid preparation.

The notice read, “The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission wishes to inform the public that it has completed the pre-qualification stage of the 2025 Licensing Round and has notified successful pre-qualified applicants accordingly.

“This was done on March 16, 2026, in line with the 2025 Licensing Round Guidelines. With the pre-qualification stage now completed, the Commission will, from today, March 17, 2026, permit successful applicants to lease data in preparation for the technical and commercial bid submissions.”

The regulator stressed that access to credible geological and geophysical data would be strictly controlled, underscoring its push for transparency and standardisation in the bid process.

The emphasis on paid data access reflects a deliberate shift by the Commission to ensure that only serious and technically capable investors proceed to the bidding stage, reducing speculative participation.

By insisting on evidence of data purchase before bid submission, the regulator is effectively filtering out unserious bidders while also boosting confidence in the integrity of the process.

The commission directed interested stakeholders to its dedicated portal for further details, noting that all subsequent stages of the exercise would be conducted digitally to enhance efficiency and accountability.

“Please note, pre-qualified applicants are mandated to lease data only from the two data sources (as applicable) and upload evidence of payment as a prerequisite to the submission of bids,” the notice concluded.

The 2025 oil licensing round was formally launched in December 2025 following approval by President Bola Tinubu as part of efforts to attract fresh investment into the country’s upstream petroleum sector.

The bid round offers 50 oil and gas blocks located across several sedimentary basins, including the Niger Delta, Anambra, Bida, Benue Trough, and Chad basins, with the objective of boosting exploration activity, increasing reserves, and supporting long-term crude production growth.

As of now, the process has completed the pre-qualification stage, with the submission window closing on February 27, 2026, after which qualified companies are expected to proceed to the technical and commercial bidding phase, where bids will be evaluated before final awards are announced.

The latest development indicates that the 2025 round is progressing on schedule, with the next phase expected to culminate in the submission of technical and commercial bids, followed by evaluation and eventual award of oil blocks.

For prospective investors, the immediate task is clear: secure the required data, meet compliance conditions, and prepare competitive bids in what is shaping up to be one of Nigeria’s most closely watched licensing exercises in recent years.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery partnered with major fuel marketers to safeguard nationwide supply and reduce risks associated with a single-source system, the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria has said.

Speaking during a MEMAN webinar on Tuesday, the association’s Chairman, Hubb Stokman, said the supply arrangement with marketers was designed to improve efficiency and address concerns around concentration risk in the downstream sector.

He noted that while Nigeria now has a large refinery capable of meeting most of its domestic needs, relying heavily on a single facility comes with inherent risks.

“I think that Nigeria is actually very blessed with having a refinery. Sometimes you forget, in a situation like this with the crisis in the Middle East, that having a refinery that can produce a large part, if not almost everything, that the country needs is a huge benefit,” he said, adding that Nigeria should count its blessings in that regard.

Stokman, however, added that the size and dominance of the refinery also necessitated deliberate efforts to spread supply channels.

“Now, one of the things is, of course, when you get a huge, mega refinery that can produce almost anything and everything that the country needs, it’s all concentrated in one place.

“So actually, this supply arrangement and selling to MEMAN members and other major marketers was mainly based also on making sure to address a little bit the risk of having one single big place to get all the products from, and also make it operationally efficient.”

He explained that the arrangement was also carried out in consultation with regulators to ensure it aligns with market realities and enhances distribution efficiency. “And I think they did that by talking also to the regulator to make sure what makes sense,” he added.

Stokman said the current global oil market volatility, triggered by the Middle East crisis, had reinforced the need for flexibility in supply arrangements. He said the crisis in the Middle East happened a couple of days after the purchase arrangement was communicated.

“And when the crisis happened, of course, everybody’s prices changed. It’s all a bit up in the air because it’s moving so fast. Don’t forget, the crisis in the Middle East is only two weeks old, and it happened basically a couple of days after this arrangement was communicated,” he said.

He noted that despite the volatility, the Nigerian market has so far responded positively because the arrangement was working. However, he warned that Nigeria needs to remain agile in a volatile environment in order not to be bogged down.

“So, I think so far, it’s been working. But I think we need to realise that in these kinds of fast-volatility environments, you need to remain agile.”

He warned against rigid approaches to market management, stressing the need for continuous adjustment in response to global developments. “I think that’s always the key thing. Don’t get bogged down in one way sometimes. But I must say, I’m very impressed with how the refinery is dealing with it and also the market,” Stokman added.

The MEMAN chairman further stated that Nigeria’s fuel pricing continues to reflect international market trends, as the deregulated system tracks global benchmarks. “The prices in Nigeria have followed, let’s say, import parity and the international market. So in that sense, I think the market has responded very quickly,” he said.

Speaking about the suspension of import licences, he added that supply security remains strong, with the regulator maintaining a needs-based approach to imports.

“I think what the NMDPRA does at the moment is very good. It (import) is scheduled on a needs basis. And I think that’s a very good approach, looking at the market and what is needed. The NMDPRA said at the beginning of March that the country had over 30 days of stock availability of PMS, which is actually, in a situation like this, quite a good position to be in from a supply security point of view.”

On the role of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, Stokman said the company remains critical to maintaining stability as a supplier of last resort.

“NNPC remains committed to its statutory role, of course, as a supplier of last resort, making sure the stability and continuity of supply of petroleum products across the country.”

Stokman expressed confidence that with both local refining and imports functioning within the framework of the Petroleum Industry Act, Nigeria can sustain an adequate supply. He added that the Nigerian market has shown increasing discipline in responding to shocks, reflecting gradual maturity since deregulation.

“I think the market is responding very, very fast and very disciplinarily. I think both the refineries, the NMDPRA, and the market players are all very, very disciplined in the way we do it,” he added.

Also speaking, a partner at Zeta Advisory and Consulting, Joe Nwakwue, stressed that Nigeria must deliberately promote a competitive, or “contestable”, market to prevent abuse of dominance by any single supplier.

He added, “We have a single refinery, 650,000 barrels, that is operational. So that risk is there. However, through regulatory action, the risk can be mitigated.” Nwakwue said allowing imports remains critical to sustaining competition and preventing price distortions.

“And that’s where I think a contestable market is important. So in practical terms, if that refinery knows that importers will bring in product and sell at a margin, its pricing will be influenced by that. But if that refinery knows that there’s no hope of getting product from anywhere else, then of course, there’s no way to regulate its behaviour.

“I think my personal view is that at all times, the only way today that you can have a contestable market is that you continue to allow imports,” Nwakwue stated.

On pricing, he noted that Nigeria is still exposed to global oil market volatility.

“The next question is, is Nigeria immune to fair price volatility? No, we’re not. As I said, domestic pricing is still import-quality pricing. So, irrespective of what the crude-for-naira deal says, we are still benchmarking Brent, and so that means whatever happens anywhere in the world that impacts Brent will be transmitted directly to the domestic market,” the expert stated.

He said there was a need to explore buffers within policies such as the naira-for-crude arrangement to reduce exposure to international price swings.

“I think that using the mechanism of the naira-for-crude, as I said, it’s until I see the agreements; I wouldn’t know, but I think you can build in buffers there, some discounts or things that can allow you to isolate the domestic refining from the vagaries of the international crude market.”

Nwakwue also raised concerns over policy inconsistencies, saying mixed signals from regulators could undermine market confidence. “I’m not aware that we have importation challenges. I think what we’ve had are uncertainties around policy and regulations. And I think that that’s what the regulator needs to clarify. People need to be certain,” he warned.

He cautioned that rising petrol prices could hurt economic growth if not carefully managed. “I think that if fuel price goes way into the N2,000s per litre, it’s going to affect economic growth. So the government should have an interest in ensuring that Nigerians don’t have to pay N2,000 per litre,” Nwakwue noted.

He, however, advocated a targeted and temporary intervention mechanism rather than an open-ended subsidy regime. “So somebody needs to model that and know what that threshold is. And then the government needs to design something; I don’t want to call it a subsidy, but that’s what it ultimately is. It’s a temporary measure that does not allow prices to hit the roof, where they will destroy the economy,” he added.

As Nigerians contend with rising petrol prices, vessels carrying 129,000 metric tonnes of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) and Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) are expected to dock at Lagos Ports between March 14 and 17, 2026, The PUNCH reports.

This came as officials of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority explained why some importers were still importing PMS despite the agency’s position that no petrol import licence had been issued this year.

According to the Nigerian Ports Authority’s Shipping Position Daily obtained on Monday, a vessel, Mosunmola, carrying 20,000MT of PMS, arrived at Lagos Ports via the Bulk Oil Plant on Sunday, March 14, 2026. Another vessel, Kobe, with 22,000MT of AGO, docked at Kirikiri Lighter Terminal Phase 2, Tin Can Island Port, on the same day.

On Tuesday, March 17, Bora is scheduled to arrive at Kirikiri Lighter Terminal 3B with 27,000MT of PMS, while Ashabi will bring 30,000MT of AGO to the same terminal.

Additionally, Oluwajuwonlo offloaded 15,000MT of PMS at Calabar Ports through Ecomarine Nigeria Limited on Sunday, March 15. Mosunmola will also deliver 15,000MT of PMS to Calabar Ports via a North West Petroleum Gas Co Limited terminal on March 17.

The vessel arrivals coincide with ongoing fuel price hikes nationwide. Nigerians currently face surging petrol costs after Dangote Petroleum Refinery raised its gantry price for PMS to N1,175 per litre, pushing retail prices above N1,200 per litre. The increase has affected transport fares and driven up the cost of goods and services nationwide.

Economic analysts, labour unions, and private sector leaders have called on the Federal Government to provide relief measures, citing rising crude oil prices driven by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. Some stakeholders suggested subsidising petrol to mitigate the impact on citizens and businesses, warning that continued price increases could exacerbate inflation.

Petrol prices have reached between N1,200 and N1,300 per litre in several areas, with projections suggesting costs could exceed N1,500 or approach N2,000 per litre if the Middle East crisis persists.

Marketers speak

The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria confirmed that independent marketers are prepared to lift imported products to ensure availability and competition.

IPMAN spokesperson Chinedu Ukadike said, “We, the independent marketers, are always on the receiving side. Wherever the product is coming from, and it is in the tanks of depot owners or NNPC, we will buy it. The most important thing is availability.

“If NMDPRA made a statement categorically that there is no import licence, I don’t know where this one is coming from. But we are ready to receive the products and sell. Maybe that will also breed competition, and this price volatility may have sustainability. So, I think it is also a welcome development.”

Ukadike added that the vessels might be operating under licences issued long ago and that delays at sea—particularly around the Strait of Hormuz—may explain their late arrival.

“It might also be an old importation licence issued since last year. It is acceptable. The imported products would not have any impact on prices unless the price of crude oil declines. The price depends on the volume and cost of the product because there is nothing like a reduction in prices when Brent is still selling for over $100,” he said.

NMDPRA explains imports

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority has clarified that no import licences were issued in the first quarter of 2026, asserting that shortfalls in February were covered by leftover stocks from January and existing refinery output.

While IPMAN and other stakeholders supported the halt on fuel import licences, major dealers and importers argued that imports were still necessary to meet national demand. February figures show Dangote refinery produced an average of 36 million litres per day, while national consumption was about 56 million litres per day, leaving an apparent gap.

A source within NMDPRA, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the lack of authorisation to speak on the matter, explained that the refinery’s unsold stocks were rolled over due to weather-related export delays in Europe at the end of 2025, closing the supply gap in February.

“The shortfall rolled over from previous stocks. These things are simple. Our fact sheets are published monthly. There were rollover stocks. Dangote didn’t export for a long time towards the end of last year. So, it was those rolled-over stocks that it supplied. Both marketers and Dangote are only jostling for market shares. Has there been a shortage? No!” the source said.

The regulator also refuted online claims that new licences had been issued, noting that licences are granted quarterly. “Those that were issued towards the end of last year were still being used. A licence for importation is not like taking money to the supermarket. It takes time for vessels to arrive. We have not issued any import licence this year,” the official said.

Nigeria has historically relied on imported refined petroleum products due to limited domestic refining capacity. However, the operational Dangote refinery, producing 650,000 barrels per day, has shifted the downstream dynamics. NMDPRA confirmed that domestic refineries supplied 36.5 million litres per day in February 2026, with imports contributing just three million litres, representing roughly 92 per cent of the national daily supply.

Chief Executive of NMDPRA, Saidu Mohammed, warned against returning to heavy import dependence. “We have not issued a single licence for petrol importation this year. Some interests still push for large-scale importation despite our progress in domestic refining,” he said during a meeting with a PUNCH delegation at the agency’s Abuja headquarters.

The recent vessel arrivals, while ensuring availability, largely reflect past import licences and logistical delays, rather than new authorisations from NMDPRA.