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The Nigerian Exchange Limited closed the week on a high, with ICT and banking stocks driving the market up by N2.44tn. The All-Share Index gained 2.45 per cent to 147,040.08 points, while market capitalisation rose 2.67 per cent to N93.722tn.

Investor activity picked up sharply, with a total turnover of 6.617bn shares worth N113.224bn changing hands in 109,590 deals during the week, up from 4.140bn shares valued at N115.889bn exchanged in 102,351 deals the previous week. The ICT industry, measured by volume, led market activity with 3.500bn shares valued at N17.759bn traded in 11,184 deals, representing 52.89 per cent of total equity turnover volume and 15.68 per cent of turnover value.

The financial services industry was the next most active sector, recording 2.625bn shares worth N50.188bn in 42,574 deals, while the services industry ranked third with 104.524m shares valued at N1.166bn in 7,255 deals. Trading in the three most active stocks—E-Tranzact International Plc, Cornerstone Insurance Plc, and Access Holdings Plc—accounted for 4.871bn shares valued at N27.422bn in 6,438 deals, contributing 73.60 per cent of turnover volume and 24.22 per cent of turnover value.

Market breadth was positive, as 55 equities appreciated in price during the week, up from 38 a week earlier. Twenty-nine equities declined, down from 36 previously, while 63 stocks closed unchanged compared with 73 in the prior week. Sectoral indices were largely firmer: the industrial goods index led gains with a 7.38 per cent rise, and the premium index jumped 5.50 per cent. Conversely, the Oil and Gas and Commodity indices fell by 0.57 per cent and 0.30 per cent, respectively.

On the exchange-traded products market, investors traded 411,382 units valued at N105.657m in 1,022 deals, up from 214,478 units worth N54.458m in 761 deals the previous week. Leading ETPs by volume included VETINDETF (96,978 units, N5.79m), VETGRIF30 (82,739 units, N5.13m), and VETGOODS (78,049 units, N3.36m). The StanbicETF30 recorded the largest value traded at N82.45m on 53,752 units transacted.

Fixed income turnover also improved as bond trading amounted to 410,186 units valued at N443.071m across 54 deals, versus 117,523 units valued at N120.742m in 38 deals a week earlier.

Corporate and government listings during the week also shaped market activity. Ecobank Transnational Incorporated listed an additional 5,381,656,222 ordinary shares following conversion of preference shares, employee share option exercises, and loan conversions, increasing its issued share capital to 23,731,207,437 ordinary shares of $0.025 each.

Additionally, Industrial and Medical Gases Plc listed 181,621,214 ordinary shares arising from its rights issue, lifting its total issued shares to 731,064,226. The Federal Government’s November 2025 savings bonds, FGS202702 (13.565 per cent, two-year) and FGS202803 (14.565 per cent, three-year), were also admitted to trading; the issue sizes were N958.416m and N2.874664bn, respectively.

Trading in Champion Breweries Plc’s rights opened on Monday. The rights issue offers 994,221,766 ordinary shares at N16.00 per share on the basis of one new share for every nine held; the offer closes on 5 January 2026.

Analysts said the weekly gains reflected year-end portfolio rebalancing and renewed investor confidence, with aggressive positioning in the ICT and banking sectors amplifying volumes and lifting prices across the board. Market watchers will be monitoring liquidity flows and corporate actions as investors seek to lock in gains before the year closes.

Analysts at Afrinvest stated that, looking ahead, they expect the market to sustain the positive start to December, driven by bargain-hunting and the rebound in key sectors. However, intermittent profit-taking and year-end portfolio adjustments may temper positive sentiment.

As the massive foreign exchange gains that banks enjoyed in the wake of the harmonisation of the FX market dry up, market watchers say lenders are actively seeking ways to open up other non-interest channels.

This was part of the outlook projected by experts at Meristem Securities in their monthly Banking Sector Highlights for November 2025.

President Bola Tinubu, weeks into his administration in 2023, harmonised segments of the FX market, which led to a significant depreciation in the value of the naira and resulted in a boon for banks in terms of FX revaluation gains. The National Assembly thereafter imposed a windfall tax following the amendment of the Finance Act 2023. The PUNCH reported that six banks paid about N205.59bn as windfall tax in the 2024 financial year.

On the outlook for the banking sector, Meristem said, “As the 2025 FY period wraps up in December, we expect the pace of growth in banks’ gross earnings to moderate further as the sector fully transitions into a normalised earnings environment. Growth will, however, remain largely driven by interest income, as banks continue to leverage the still-high interest rate (MPR at 27.00%).

This will be supported by the capacity for balance sheet expansion following the widening of the asymmetric corridor to +50/-450 bps from +250/-250 bps. This adjustment lowers banks’ effective borrowing cost at the CBN and strengthens their ability to extend credit to the real economy.

“Beyond interest income, we acknowledge that more banks are making efforts to grow their non-interest income, especially after the extraordinary FX gains made in the last two years as a result of the naira devaluation and depreciation. The ability to grow non-interest components like fees and commissions, hinged on increased demand and the impact of digitalisation, would help boost the non-interest revenue stream.”

The PUNCH had reported that at the end of the third quarter of 2025, nine financial institutions made about N2.81tn from account maintenance charges, commissions on collections, e-business, and other fees. This figure represents about a 24.10 per cent increase from the N2.27tn earned in the same period of the previous year.

A look at the nine-month results of the financial institutions filed with the Nigerian Exchange Limited indicated that Access Holdings recorded a slight dip in non-interest income by 2.32 per cent YoY to N996.86bn. FX revaluation loss (-53.43 per cent YoY to N255.40bn) weighed on non-interest income performance. However, strong growth in other operating income (+110.31 per cent YoY) and fees and commission income (+49.53 per cent YoY), as the bank continues to focus on core banking operations, provided support.

For Sterling Financial Holding Company, Meristem said that the growth recorded in its fees and commission income, which grew by +17.12 per cent YoY, and trading income, which expanded significantly (+78.19 per cent YoY), more than offset FX revaluation losses of N1.88bn that the company suffered. It was a similar scenario at United Bank for Africa, where non-interest income fell to N488.63bn from N599.11bn in 9M:2024, mainly due to an 83.34 per cent YoY decline in FX revaluation gains.

“This sharply suppressed trading performance, with net trading income down 77.34 per cent YoY, reversing last year’s FX-driven windfall,” said the analysts.

At Wema Bank, as of September 2025, FX revaluation gain declined by -70.21 per cent YoY to N4.23bn, contributing largely to the dip in other income, which fell by 58.03 per cent YoY.

Analysing the impact of the decisions of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria, which includes holding the benchmark rate at 27 per cent, the experts said, “The revised asymmetric corridor places the Standing Lending Facility at 27.50 per cent (down from 29.50 per cent), meaning banks now borrow from the CBN at a lower cost. At the lower band, the Standing Deposit Facility now stands at 22.50 per cent, offering less incentive for banks to park liquidity with the CBN. We believe that some banks may still opt to place funds with the CBN, as the SDF rate remains meaningfully above prevailing yields in the fixed-income market (c.16.00%). The removal of the N3.00bn cap further enhances its appeal, especially for banks prioritising risk-free returns.

“Although the liquidity expansion gives banks additional capacity to extend credit, it is unlikely to translate into a significant reduction in lending rates to the real sector. Loan pricing is expected to stay elevated as banks work to meet the 50 per cent loan-to-deposit ratio requirement while keeping non-performing loan levels in check. The high-interest-rate environment is expected to continue to bolster banks’ earnings through interest income, though at more normalised levels. In 9M:2025, banks like Access Holdings, Stanbic IBTC Holdings, and Zenith Bank maintained current account and savings account ratios above 60.00 per cent, providing a buffer for net interest margins against mild yield compression. This strong, low-cost funding base also enhances their flexibility to channel liquidity into additional lending or interbank placements amid the more accommodative policy corridor.”

Meanwhile, the CBN has confirmed that 16 banks have now met the recapitalisation requirements, higher than the 14 from the September meeting of the MPC.

The Managing Director of Financial Derivatives, Bismarck Rewane, has warned that the banking sector is experiencing a shift. Speaking at the recently held 2025 Parthian Economic Discourse in Lagos, Rewane said:

“The bargaining power of the banking system is getting weaker and weaker. You have this Chinese OPay and Moniepoint. If you look at advertising slots at peak hour, 10 and 11 o’clock news, you are more likely to see Victor Osimhen and Moniepoint than you see X bank. It tells you something. You are more likely to see MoMo and MTN, and it’s not coincidental. Nothing happens by accident. It’s because of the kind of money that’s being made, money to be made, and more money to be made. The banking sector is going through a change to make it more efficient. The banking system lives on rent, just like downstream petroleum, on rent extensively from allocating to round-tripping and all sorts of things. So, it’s now about efficiency and how to deliver value to the client, and the client has become very sophisticated and resistant to increases.”