As the easing of tensions between the United States and Iran continues, the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria has called on refiners, depot owners and petroleum products importers to reduce their ex-depot and retail pump prices in line with the recent decline in international crude oil prices.

The National President of PETROAN, Billy Gillis-Harry, said the drop in global crude oil prices provided an opportunity for operators in the downstream petroleum sector to pass on the benefits of lower crude costs to consumers.

In a statement signed by the National Public Relations Officer of PETROAN, Dr Joseph Obele, on Friday, Gillis-Harry said market realities should be reflected in both ex-depot and retail pump prices.

“The recent decline in global crude oil prices presents an opportunity for stakeholders in the downstream petroleum sector to pass the benefits of lower crude oil costs to Nigerian consumers. Market realities should be reflected in both ex-depot and retail pump prices in the interest of fairness and economic relief for the public,” Gillis-Harry said.

According to the association, recent developments in the global oil market indicate that crude oil prices are on a downward trend, with Brent crude falling to about $77–$78 per barrel following the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and expectations that oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually normalise.

PETROAN noted that market analysts believe crude oil prices are currently under downward pressure, although geopolitical risks remain. The association said current projections suggest that Brent crude may trade within the range of $75–$82 per barrel next week, while West Texas Intermediate crude is expected to trade between $72 and $79 per barrel.

It identified the continued implementation of the US-Iran peace agreement, increased crude oil exports from the Middle East and concerns over weaker global oil demand as factors contributing to the decline in crude prices.

Gillis-Harry expressed concern over pricing trends in the domestic market, saying, “In some instances, the landing cost of imported petroleum products appears to be lower than the prices offered by domestic refiners. This development is surprising and underscores the need for a more competitive downstream petroleum market that guarantees consumers access to the most affordable products available.”

The PETROAN president called on the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority to continue issuing import licences to qualified marketers, saying increased competition would help moderate prices and ensure adequate supply.

“Increased competition among suppliers would help moderate prices, discourage monopolistic tendencies, and ensure a steady supply of petroleum products across the country,” the statement read.

Gillis-Harry maintained that competition remained one of the most effective ways of driving efficiency and reducing costs. “Competition remains one of the most effective mechanisms for driving efficiency, reducing costs, and protecting consumers,” he stated.

He added that a competitive market environment would encourage operators to reduce prices in line with prevailing market conditions. PETROAN also called on the Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Limited, Bayo Ojulari, to facilitate discussions with two Chinese firms interested in operating the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries.

Gillis-Harry said, “If these refineries are successfully revived and operated as private-sector-driven facilities, petroleum product prices are expected to decline further due to improved efficiency and increased domestic refining capacity.

“The resumption of operations at the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries under competent private management would enhance supply stability, promote healthy competition, and ultimately lead to more affordable petroleum products for Nigerians.”

The association stated that sustained moderation in crude oil prices, combined with stable exchange rates and refining costs, should support lower petrol prices and provide relief for consumers and businesses.

Gillis-Harry reiterated PETROAN’s commitment to a competitive downstream petroleum sector, saying the association would continue advocating “for a transparent, competitive, and consumer-friendly downstream petroleum sector that delivers fair pricing, energy security, and sustainable economic growth for all Nigerians”

The Nigeria FMCG Industry Report 2026, published by Omni, has revealed that only 18 per cent of retailers in the country have accessed formal loans, underscoring the scale of financial exclusion in the fast-moving consumer goods sector.

The report, which was unveiled in Lagos on Friday by the Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Dr Jumoke Oduwole, showed that 74 per cent of retailers rate access to credit as very important to sustaining daily operations, yet more than half indicated active shortfalls that directly affect their ability to restock on time.

“Approximately 74 per cent of retailers identify access to credit as critical to sustaining daily operations, yet only 18 per cent have accessed formal loans,” it stated.

The report stated that Nigeria remains one of Africa’s largest consumer markets, with an estimated FMCG market value of $25bn and a population of around 238 million people.

The study also noted that FMCG credit sales reached N325bn in the first half of 2025, a 55.4 per cent year-on-year increase, signalling that credit is becoming a strategic tool rather than a distress measure.

It added that despite recent macroeconomic pressures, the sector continued to demonstrate resilience, supported by rapid urbanisation, a youthful population and expanding digital adoption.

The report also revealed that 78 per cent of the retailers surveyed use POS systems. “More than three-quarters of retailers now use digital payment channels, creating new opportunities for embedded finance and data-driven lending,” it stated.

Meanwhile, the Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Dr Jumoke Oduwole, who was the special guest of honour at the report launch, disclosed, “Nigeria’s more than 40 million MSMEs account for the overwhelming majority of businesses in our economy today and power approximately 80 per cent of retail transactions across the country, largely through informal channels.

“Across markets, neighbourhood stores, distribution channels and retail networks, these enterprises ensure that goods reach households in every part of our country.”

According to Oduwole, the Bank of Industry recorded about N636bn in total disbursements last year, including N56bn in MSME loans and N5.2bn in grants.

She emphasised the importance of data, visibility and collaboration in strengthening Nigeria’s trade ecosystem and supporting the country’s broader industrial and economic development agenda.

“The FMCG industry is more than a commercial category; it is a critical driver of jobs, manufacturing growth, trade and consumer welfare. Strengthening visibility across the value chain and fostering collaboration among stakeholders will be essential to unlocking the sector’s full potential,” she said.

According to the minister, more than 500,000 MSMEs have now been captured in the national MSME database, strengthening formalisation and improving the government’s ability to design better-targeted support.

“For the FMCG sector, these numbers matter. Growth in FMCG depends on strong local production, reliable infrastructure, access to finance, efficient logistics, predictable regulations, consumer purchasing power and market access.

“It also depends on ensuring that businesses spend less time navigating avoidable bottlenecks and more time producing, distributing, hiring, exporting and creating value. This is why the ministry continues to deepen engagement with major investors through our Platinum Business Champions Programme and several other interactions,” she added.

Speaking on the significance of the report, the Founder and Chief Executive Officer of OmniRetail, Deepankar Rustagi, noted, “As we celebrate seven years of building technology infrastructure for commerce, we are proud to contribute something bigger than ourselves to the industry.

“The FMCG Industry Report 2026 provides a data-driven perspective on the realities, opportunities and future of one of Africa’s most important sectors. We hope it becomes a valuable resource for business leaders, investors and policymakers to shape the future of commerce.”

According to Rustagi, data is giving visibility to the FMCG sector, while digital payments are creating transparency. “Embedded finance is expanding access to capital, for this is an invisible economy. Together, these innovations are transforming how commerce operates across Nigeria. This transformation is one of the reasons we created this report.

“Over the past year, businesses across the FMCG value chain have navigated inflation, currency volatility, rising operating costs and changing consumer behaviour. Yet, despite these challenges, the industry has continued to demonstrate resilience. Retailers have adapted, distributors have innovated and manufacturers have continued to invest more in the economy. The ecosystem has moved forward,” he added.

On his part, the Chief Operating Officer of OmniRetail, Wale Adisa, said the report would enable manufacturers to track the performance of their products across the country.

“We’ve got over 150,000 retailers who use our platform. We’ve got thousands of distributors for multiple brands who use our platform. We’ve got hundreds of manufacturers who use our platform. And that gives us visibility into the ebbs and flows of trade information in the country. We’ve been able to see where the breakages are and how data can help close those gaps,” he said.

The firm also used the event to celebrate its seventh anniversary in the country.

Nigerian fuel marketers are increasingly importing refined petroleum products originating from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery through the offshore ship-to-ship trading hub in Lome, Togo, according to an S&P Global Energy official, Matthew Tracey-Cook.

Tracey-Cook said the circular trade pattern persists even as the refinery boosts local production and supply, highlighting a possible disparity between local and international pricing.

Speaking on Thursday at a MEMAN webinar themed “West Africa pricing and flows in the context of the war,” Tracey-Cook provided insights into evolving West African refined products markets, emphasising the deepening interconnection between Dangote’s coastal operations and the Lome STS hub.

He said Dangote volumes on a coastal basis do arrive back in Lagos from Lomé. Tracey-Cook presented data showing a marked shift in supply sources for Nigeria.

While waterborne imports exclude truck volumes, Dangote-origin products have become dominant in waterborne deliveries to Lagos and other Nigerian locations.

“Over the last six months, if you look at the volume of products on a waterborne basis that’s imported directly into Nigeria, Dangote production has become increasingly dominant,” he said.

He noted particularly strong performance between March and May 2026, saying, “For several months, from March until May, we saw well over 70 to 80 per cent of the volumes that were imported into Nigeria actually originated from Dangote; from their coastal Dangote volumes which were re-imported.”

He added that similar patterns appear on the diesel side, noting that “the increasing importance of the Dangote refinery in terms of product that’s flowing into Nigeria is really evident” from S&P Global data.

He stressed that despite Dangote’s growing direct coastal supply, offshore Lome has not diminished in importance, as the Lomé market is still slightly bigger compared to 2024 levels.

In certain months, such as November and December 2025, Lome handled significantly larger volumes. The hub serves as a flexible STS facility where larger medium-range tankers discharge cargoes that are then lifted onto smaller coaster vessels better suited to many West African ports with limited capacity.

“Lomé has become an increasingly important transshipment hub for filling regional shortages across the region… It serves an important purpose, given that many ports in West Africa don’t have the capacity to take a fully laden MR-sized vessel,” he added.

Charts from the webinar illustrate substantial Dangote exports to offshore Lome. These volumes include petrol, diesel, jet fuel and other clean products. Offshore Lome receives diverse origins but consistently incorporates significant Dangote cargoes.

Tracey-Cook also addressed pricing trends, noting an unusual seasonal pattern since the Middle East crisis began, adding, “This is really an unusual seasonal trend where gasoline in West Africa is significantly more expensive than it is in Europe right now.”

He added that Dangote petrol pricing remains tightly aligned with STS Lome benchmarks, while price differentials between the two locations enable effective risk management.

Tracey-Cook positioned Dangote and Lome as twin pillars of West African supply. “These two locations, the FOB Dangote market and also the STS Lomé market, are the two largest and most important regional hubs of supply in the region as a whole.

“You can, in a way, kind of compare it to the Mediterranean market, where you have multiple refineries, multiple sources of supply… And so that’s kind of what we see as a possibility in terms of development of this market,” he stressed.

It was disclosed that the US-Iran war’s impact has amplified Dangote’s role. “Looking at the context of the war, one of the most important things that stands out is the importance of Dangote in supplying not just West Africa, in terms of being a supplier of last resort across clean products, but also the European market.

“Europe before the war was more than 50 per cent reliant on jet fuel from inside the Persian Gulf. And when that supply was cut off, benchmark prices spiked to well over $1,800 per metric tonne.

“What we saw in the months after the war broke out was an increasing flow of product from the US, but also a large flow of product from Dangote. We actually saw in May Dangote being the largest single exporter of jet fuel globally in terms of refined product capacity,” Tracey-Cook noted.

He showed record Dangote exports outside West Africa from April to June 2026, with notable deliveries to the UK, the Netherlands and South Africa, among others.

The PUNCH recalls that some fuel importers in the country alleged in November 2025 that the Dangote refinery sells a litre of petrol to international traders at N65 cheaper than the amount it offers to marketers in Nigeria.

The Depot and Petroleum Product Marketers Association of Nigeria and the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria confirmed this in separate interviews with our correspondent at the time.

“Dangote is selling to international traders at N65 lower than what he offers in Nigeria. How is it possible for some of our members to buy from someone who bought from Dangote?

“Dangote sells to international traders at N65 cheaper than what he is selling to us. In some instances, we were able to buy from those people and still bring it to Nigeria. They will take the product to Lomé, claiming that they are buying large quantities,” DAPPMAN said in 2025.

But the refinery dispelled the allegation of cheaper petrol sales in Togo compared to Nigeria, with many Nigerians questioning how local marketers could leave the producer of a product in his home country to buy it from another trader in Togo.