The sharp rise in international crude oil prices could trigger another increase in petrol prices in Nigeria, with Brent crude climbing to $115.18 per barrel on Friday amid growing fears of renewed military strikes on Iran and further disruptions to global oil supplies.

The latest rally in crude prices comes as Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other depot owners sell petrol at N1350 at their gantries.

A further increase in the cost of crude could put additional pressure on domestic petrol prices, with marketers facing higher replacement costs and the possibility of passing the increases on to consumers.

According to Oilprice.com, Brent crude climbed to a five-month high on Friday as escalating tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns over global oil supplies, raising the prospect of another increase in petrol prices in Nigeria.

The international benchmark rose by 1.8 per cent to $115.18 per barrel, while United States West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained two per cent to $101.56 per barrel, amid growing expectations that Washington could resume military strikes on Iran in the coming weeks.

The rally comes as Nigerian consumers continue to grapple with elevated petrol prices, which affected inflationary pressure and heightened the cost of living.

Although no fresh increase has been announced by either refiners or importers, sustained increases in international crude prices usually put further pressure on domestic petrol prices by raising feedstock and refined-product replacement costs.

CNBC reports that the latest oil price rally was driven by fears of a renewed military escalation involving the United States and Iran, alongside attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping routes in the Middle East.

Reuters reported on Friday that Brent crude had touched $115.16 per barrel, its highest level since May 4, as attacks by Houthi militants in Saudi Arabia heightened concerns about further disruption to energy supplies.

The report also highlighted the evacuation of Saudi Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran amid intensifying regional fighting.

Brent futures were on course for a weekly gain of about five per cent, which would mark their third consecutive week of increases. WTI was also heading for a weekly gain, although its advance was considerably smaller.

The renewed concerns followed remarks by United States President Donald Trump on Wednesday that Washington was not negotiating with Iran and that something would happen “fairly soon”.

The comments came amid reports that US and Israeli officials were considering fresh strikes against Iran after the American midterm elections.

Iran’s army chief, meanwhile, said the country’s military was fully prepared for “asymmetric warfare” after strengthening its capabilities, according to the Iranian state media agency Tasnim.

The growing tensions have also extended to Saudi Arabia, where Iran-allied Houthi militants have continued attacks. The United States State Department ordered non-essential personnel to leave the country amid the security concerns.

A drone attack targeting the Shaybah oil field in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Region on Wednesday reportedly killed two people and injured two others. Another attack on King Fahd International Airport in Dammam also left at least two people dead and eight injured, according to Saudi state media.

Reuters reported that Saudi Aramco had ordered staff to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters and work remotely following attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

The developments have raised fears of further disruption to crude production, exports and shipping across the Middle East, a region central to global energy supplies.

Of particular concern is the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway through which a significant share of the world’s oil supplies normally passes. Disruptions to shipping through the strait have already contributed to market volatility, while renewed attacks could further tighten supplies and increase freight and insurance costs.

For Nigeria, higher international crude prices could feed into the cost of petrol supplied by domestic refiners and imported products, depending on their crude procurement costs, refining margins, logistics and prevailing market prices.

Dangote Petroleum Refinery, a major supplier to the domestic market, last announced an increase in its petrol gantry price from N1,265 to N1,350 per litre, effective 12 September.

Segilola Resources Operating Limited, a subsidiary of Thor Explorations Ltd and operator of Nigeria’s first commercial gold mine, reaffirmed its commitment to responsible mining at Nigeria Mining Week 2026, where it participated as a Diamond Sponsor.

Held from 12-14 October in Abuja, the 11th edition of NMW brought together government representatives, investors, mining companies and technical experts to fully explore this year’s theme of ‘Unlocking Investment and Growth through Partnerships’ and build capacity across the mining value chain.

The event was hosted by the Ministry of Solid Minerals Development and organised by the Miners Association of Nigeria in partnership with PwC Nigeria.

Delivering the keynote address at the main conference, SROL’s Country Manager, Austin Menegbo, noted that the success of the Segilola Gold Mine is operating proof that successful commercial gold mines can be built and operated in Nigeria and also highlighted the importance of patient capital, technical discipline, effective regulation and strong community partnerships in establishing a commercially viable mining industry in Nigeria.

He said: “The opportunity before Nigeria is significant. But potential, by itself, creates no jobs, earns no export revenue, builds no skills and transforms no communities. Potential becomes valuable only when institutions and industry work together to convert it into responsible production. Segilola has shown that this can be done. Our responsibility now is to make the path clearer for the projects that should follow—not by lowering the bar, but by making the rules coherent, the processes credible and the partnerships real. If we do that, Nigeria will not merely have a successful gold mine. It will have a stronger mining industry: one that attracts serious capital, rewards responsible operators, expands Nigerian participation and delivers enduring value to the nation.”

At its masterclass, ‘From Compliance to Stewardship – Water Management: The SROL Way’, SROL shared insights into its approach to water management, recycling and conservation. The session highlighted the importance of integrating water stewardship into mining operations and managing water resources responsibly throughout the mining process.

SROL also delivered ‘Building a Commercial Gold Industry in Nigeria – Lessons from Segilola and the Path to Scale’, sharing lessons from establishing Nigeria’s first large-scale commercial gold mining operation and exploring opportunities for the wider industry. Through its exhibition booth, the company further engaged stakeholders on environmental stewardship, workplace safety and host community development.

Nigeria’s mining sector offers significant opportunities for economic diversification, job creation and industrial development. Realising this potential will require investment, effective regulation, local capabilities and responsible environmental management.

SROL’s participation at NMW 2026 reinforces its commitment to sharing operational expertise, advancing responsible mining practices and supporting the development of a competitive mining industry that creates lasting value for Nigeria and its communities.

Nigeria’s daily petrol imports fell by 58.9 per cent between January and September 2026, as domestic refineries continued to account for a larger share of supply, although the volume of petrol received into the country remained below consumption in September.

This was as the country received an average of 105.9 million litres of imported petrol per day in total across the nine months from January to September 2026.

Using the number of calendar days in each month, Nigeria received an estimated 3.24 billion litres of imported petrol between January and September 2026. This was calculated by multiplying each month’s reported daily import average by the number of days in that month. The estimate is based on rounded NMDPRA figures and may differ slightly from the regulator’s underlying totals.

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority’s September fact sheet released on Thursday showed that petrol imports declined from 24.8 million litres per day in January to 10.2 million litres per day in September.

This represented a reduction of 14.6 million litres per day, or 58.9 per cent, in the daily average volume of imported petrol received over the period.

The decline occurred alongside a significant increase in domestic supply between September 2025 and September 2026, reflecting the growing contribution of local refining to Nigeria’s petrol market.

According to the NMDPRA data, domestic petrol receipts rose from 17.6 million litres per day in September 2025 to 28.5 million litres per day in September 2026, representing an increase of 61.9 per cent.

Consequently, locally supplied petrol accounted for 73.6 per cent of the 38.7 million litres received daily in September, while imports contributed 26.4 per cent.

The September figures, however, showed that the decline in imports was not matched by a corresponding increase in overall petrol supply, as total receipts fell by 23.4 per cent from 50.5 million litres per day in August.

The NMDPRA attributed the September decline to reductions in both domestic supply and imports, noting that approved import permit volumes were being exhausted.

Domestic petrol receipts fell by 20.6 per cent from 35.9 million litres per day in August to 28.5 million litres in September. Imported supplies declined by 30.1 per cent from 14.6 million litres to 10.2 million litres daily.

The combined reduction of 11.8 million litres per day in receipts came as petrol consumption increased

The regulator reported that daily petrol consumption rose by seven per cent from 41.5 million litres in August to 44.4 million litres in September.

This left a gap of 5.7 million litres per day between reported petrol receipts and consumption in September, with daily receipts covering about 87.2 per cent of reported consumption.

The development also affected stock sufficiency. Petrol stock cover increased slightly from 22.9 days in August to 23.9 days in September, but remained below the 30-day threshold used by the regulator.

The stock cover represented an improvement of 4.4 per cent over August, although the country still had about six days less than the benchmark.

The figures suggest that the reduction in imports has not, by itself, eliminated supply pressures. Sustaining lower import dependence will require domestic refineries to provide sufficient and consistent volumes to meet consumption.

A review of the monthly data from January to September showed that petrol imports fluctuated considerably during the period.

Imported petrol receipts fell from 24.8 million litres per day in January to 3.0 million litres in February, before rising to 5.9 million litres in March. They dropped to 3.7 million litres in April, increased to 5.9 million litres in May and then climbed sharply to 18.1 million litres in June.

Imports rose further to 19.7 million litres per day in July before falling to 14.6 million litres in August and 10.2 million litres in September.

The July figure was the highest monthly import receipt since January, while September’s volume was 48.2 per cent below July’s level.

Domestic supplies also varied during the nine-month period. They rose from 40.1 million litres per day in January to 40.7 million litres in April and peaked at 41.5 million litres in May, before falling to 32.5 million litres in June and 25.8 million litres in July.

Domestic receipts recovered to 35.9 million litres daily in August before declining to 28.5 million litres in September.