Operators in Nigeria’s downstream oil sector have projected potential price relief as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery confirmed that crude oil deliveries from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited doubled in March, boosting prospects for improved fuel availability.

The operators, however, noted that the price relief would be guaranteed if the government reduced the price of crude supplied to the Dangote refinery, and they commended the increase in oil volumes supplied to the $20bn Lekki-based plant by NNPC last month.

Nigeria’s push to stabilise domestic fuel supply received a boost as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery disclosed that crude oil deliveries from NNPC doubled in March, amid global supply disruptions triggered by tensions in the Middle East.

Africa’s richest man and President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, revealed in a report by Bloomberg on Tuesday that the refinery received 10 cargoes of crude oil from the state-owned oil firm in March, compared to an average of about five cargoes monthly since late 2024.

Dangote said the shipments included six cargoes paid for in naira and four in dollars, under the crude supply arrangement between the refinery and the NNPC.

“Nigeria doubled crude supply to Dangote Refinery in March as Africa’s top oil producer moved to shore up fuel availability after the Iran war disrupted Middle East shipments. Last month, they gave us six cargoes with payments in naira and four cargoes with payments in dollars,” he stated.

The development comes as Nigeria moves to shore up local fuel production following disruptions in global oil supply chains caused by the recent US-Israel attack on Iran, which has affected crude flows from the Middle East.

The increase in crude allocation signals a strategic shift by the Federal Government to prioritise domestic refining capacity and reduce exposure to volatile international markets, a move industry operators say could support gradual price moderation if sustained.

Last week, reports indicated that NNPC had increased crude oil supply to the Dangote refinery, allocating seven cargoes for May loading to boost domestic fuel production.

Two trader sources had told Reuters that the latest allocation marked an increase from the five cargoes the refinery had been receiving in previous months. However, officials of the petroleum refinery later said they were unaware of claims that seven crude cargoes had been allocated to the plant for May.

Meanwhile, despite the latest improvement, Dangote noted that the refinery is still operating below its full capacity, as it requires about 19 cargoes of crude monthly to run optimally.

“The supply has improved, but it is not yet at the level we need. We still have to import crude from the United States and other African countries to meet our requirements,” he said.

The refinery, widely regarded as Africa’s largest, has increasingly relied on imports to bridge the shortfall, raising concerns about cost pressures in the downstream sector. Dangote warned that limited access to locally produced crude, particularly from international oil companies operating in Nigeria, is driving up operational costs.

According to him, many of the oil firms prefer to sell crude to international traders rather than supply directly to the refinery, forcing the plant to buy back Nigerian crude at higher prices.

“Some of the international oil companies would rather sell to traders. So, we end up buying our own crude at a premium. The higher we pay, the higher the cost of petroleum products will be, because we have to pass on the cost,” he explained.

The refinery’s growing role in regional energy supply has also come into sharper focus, as several African countries increasingly depend on its output amid global uncertainties.

Dangote disclosed that the refinery exported about 17 cargoes of petroleum products to other African nations in March alone, underscoring its emergence as a key supplier on the continent. “Many African countries now rely on us for their petroleum products, especially with the disruptions in the Middle East,” he said.

Beyond fuels, the refinery is also ramping up production of polypropylene, a key industrial material used in plastic manufacturing and automotive components, which Dangote described as being in short supply globally. “The demand for polypropylene is very high, and it is currently scarce because of what is happening in the Middle East,” he added.

The crude-for-naira deal between the NNPC and the Dangote refinery, signed in October 2024, was designed to enhance local refining, conserve foreign exchange, and stabilise fuel prices in Nigeria. However, implementation has faced challenges, including inconsistent crude supply and competition from international traders.

The refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, is expected to significantly reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products, which have historically strained the country’s foreign reserves.

Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have further highlighted the importance of domestic refining, as disruptions in global supply chains continue to affect fuel availability and pricing worldwide.

While increased crude allocation to the Dangote refinery is a step in the right direction, sustained supply and improved cooperation with oil producers will be critical to achieving full operational capacity and long-term energy security.

Commenting, the Chief Executive Officer of Petroleumprice.ng, Jeremiah Olatide, said the delivery of 10 crude cargoes in March signals improved supply to local refineries, but warned that Nigerians may not feel the benefit through lower pump prices without government intervention.

Olatide said, “The 10 crude cargoes supply recorded in March is a good development because it indicates more crude supply and, by extension, more fuel availability. But without Federal Government intervention through crude subsidy to the Dangote refinery and other local refineries, Nigerians will continue to experience availability but unaffordability, as petrol and diesel prices are poised to hit N1,500 per litre and N2,000 per litre at the pump.”

He further explained that the pricing structure of crude supplied locally remains tied to international benchmarks, limiting the possibility of immediate price relief for consumers. “The six cargoes paid for in naira are still priced using international benchmarks, so Nigerians should not expect any drop in pump prices. What the Federal Government should do now is introduce crude subsidy,” he said.

Olatide warned of looming pressure in the downstream market, noting that diesel prices had already crossed a critical threshold at the depot level. “As I speak, diesel prices at the depot have just crossed N2,000 per litre, so there is a crisis ahead,” he added.

Amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their ripple effects on global energy markets, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has increased the gantry price of petrol and diesel, further tightening pressure on consumers and businesses across Nigeria.

A top official at the refinery, who confirmed the development to our correspondent on Tuesday night, said the facility adjusted its pricing in response to prevailing international crude oil benchmarks and market realities.

The new pricing template shows that petrol rose by N75 per litre to N1,275, representing an increase of about 5.02 per cent, while diesel jumped by N200 per litre to N1,950.

This marks a sharp increase from last month’s prices of N1,200 per litre for petrol and N1,750 for diesel, signalling that diesel is now on track to breach the N2,000 per litre mark at the pump, further intensifying cost pressures across the economy.

“The adjustment is in line with global market trends. You are aware of the ongoing tensions in the Middle East and how they have impacted crude oil prices. These are external factors that directly influence refined product pricing,” the official, who spoke in confidence due to the lack of authorisation to speak on the matter, stated.

He added, “Petrol has been reviewed upward by N75 to N1,275 per litre, which is about a five per cent increase, while diesel has increased more significantly by N200 to N1,950 per litre. These changes reflect the realities of the international market.”

Market data from Petroleumprice.ng corroborated the development, indicating that the latest petrol price reflects a 5.02 per cent increase at the gantry level.

The development comes at a time when stakeholders had hoped that increased local refining capacity would help stabilise domestic fuel prices. However, analysts say Nigeria remains exposed to global oil price volatility due to its reliance on international crude benchmarks for pricing.

The latest hike could trigger a fresh wave of increases in pump prices nationwide, with marketers expected to pass on the additional cost to consumers in the coming days.

Global oil markets have remained volatile in recent weeks due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, a region that accounts for a significant share of the world’s crude oil supply. Any disruption or perceived risk to supply routes often leads to price spikes, which in turn affect refined petroleum products globally.

Nigeria, despite being an oil-producing country, operates a deregulated downstream sector where fuel prices are largely determined by market forces. This means that local prices are influenced by international crude prices, exchange rates, logistics costs, and refinery operations.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Africa’s largest, was expected to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel and help stabilise prices. However, experts note that as long as crude oil pricing remains tied to global benchmarks, domestic fuel prices will continue to fluctuate in response to international developments.

The latest increase also comes amid concerns over affordability, with consumers already grappling with high energy and transportation costs. A sustained price increase could worsen inflationary pressures and slow economic recovery.

Remittance outflows declined by N689.55m in 2025, reflecting a 36.09 per cent drop compared to 2024, according to data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria on Tuesday.

Remittance outflows are money sent from a country to recipients in other countries. In simpler terms, it’s when people, businesses, or organisations transfer funds abroad.

An analysis of the full-year figures showed that total international payment outflows fell from N1.91bn in 2024 to N1.22bn in 2025, signalling a sharp contraction in cross-border remittance flows.

The data indicates that 2024 recorded significantly higher outflows, driven by elevated monthly payments in several periods, particularly in May (N365.44m), June (N270.52m), and September (N230.30m). These three months alone accounted for over N866m, representing a substantial share of the annual total.

In contrast, 2025 posted a more subdued outflow pattern, with no single month exceeding N200.31m. The highest monthly outflow in 2025 was recorded in December at N200.31m, followed by November at N166.41m and September at N149.49m.

A breakdown of the 2025 monthly data shows a gradual but uneven trend across the year. Outflows began at N54.44m in January and rose sharply to N125.59m in February before moderating to N110.98m in March. April recorded a notable dip to N37.75m, marking one of the lowest monthly figures in the year.

The trend picked up slightly in May at N78.38m and June at N82.15m, before easing again to N75.02m in July. August saw a moderate increase to N107.55m, followed by a stronger rise in September to N149.49m.

However, October recorded a sharp drop to N33.02m, the lowest monthly outflow in 2025, before rebounding significantly in November and December to N166.41m and N200.31m, respectively. The year ended on a strong note, with the last two months accounting for over 29 per cent of total annual outflows.

Comparatively, the 2024 monthly pattern was more volatile and generally higher. After opening at N138.56m in January, outflows fell sharply to N39.15m in February but surged to N193.31m in April and peaked at N365.44m in May. This was followed by another elevated figure of N270.52m in June, underscoring sustained pressure on external payments during the period.

Further into 2024, outflows remained relatively high, with September posting N230.30m and December closing at N173.68m, reinforcing the stronger annual total recorded that year.

For January 2026, the data showed remittance outflows of N107.47m. This represents a significant year-on-year increase of N53.03m, up from N54.44m recorded in January 2025, indicating a rise of about 97.4 per cent.

On a month-on-month basis, January 2026 outflows declined sharply by N92.84m, from N200.31m in December 2025, representing a drop of approximately 46.3 per cent.

The January 2026 figure, while higher than the corresponding period in 2025, remains below several peak months in 2024 and 2025, suggesting outflows have not yet returned to the elevated levels seen in earlier periods.

Remittances support household consumption, savings, investment, and foreign exchange supply. They have also become more important in recent years as the economy sought to diversify away from volatile oil earnings.

The decline in total remittance outflows in 2025 coincided with a surge in inflows, which the CBN said tripled to about $600m monthly during the year.

This divergence suggests a strengthening of Nigeria’s net remittance position, with more foreign exchange entering the economy relative to what is leaving. It also indicates improved confidence and increased use of formal channels for diaspora remittances amid ongoing reforms.

While the data did not provide reasons for the decline, the pattern suggests that outflows remained sensitive to both domestic and international economic headwinds. The dip in remittance comes amid wider policy reforms aimed at stabilising the foreign exchange market and rebuilding confidence.

In January 2024, the central bank removed the cap on exchange rates quoted by International Money Transfer Operators, which had previously limited rates to within ±2.5 per cent of the previous day’s closing rate.

The CBN also increased the IMTO licence application fee from N500,000 in 2014 to N10m in the updated guidelines, representing a nearly 1,900 per cent increase over 10 years. A minimum operating capital requirement of $1m was set for both foreign and local IMTOs.

While IMTOs were initially barred from purchasing foreign exchange from the domestic market, recent circulars indicate that this restriction has been lifted, allowing them to trade on the official market.

The CBN established a Collaborative Task Force reporting directly to CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso, aiming to double remittance inflows by increasing competition, engaging diaspora communities, and improving transparency in FX transactions.

Also, the CBN recently granted 14 new Approval-in-Principle licences to IMTOs, as confirmed by the Bank’s Acting Director of Corporate Communications, Mrs Hakama Sidi Ali. The reforms have streamlined regulatory procedures, onboarded more IMTOs, and enhanced measures to increase the supply of foreign currencies.

The CBN, in collaboration with the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System, also launched the Non-Resident Bank Verification Number (NRBVN) platform, a significant initiative aimed at enhancing financial access for Nigerians in the diaspora.

The platform, which enables Nigerians abroad to obtain their BVN remotely, removes the need for physical presence in Nigeria. Speaking at the event in Abuja, CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso described the platform as a key milestone in the country’s financial inclusion journey.

With the launch of the NRBVN, the CBN aims to achieve $1bn in monthly remittances. “With the introduction of NRBVN and complementary policy measures, we are optimistic about achieving our ambitious target of $1bn in monthly remittance flows, a goal we believe is entirely achievable given the growing trust and convenience in formal remittance channels,” Cardoso said.

More recently, the CBN directed all International Money Transfer Operators operating in the country to open and maintain naira settlement accounts with authorised dealer banks, as part of efforts to tighten oversight of diaspora remittances and improve transparency in the foreign exchange market