The Nigerian equities market extended its rally for a fifth consecutive session on Wednesday, as investor optimism around the Dangote Refinery listing sustained bullish momentum on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange Limited.

The All-Share Index rose by 487.28 points, representing a gain of 0.20 per cent, to close at 244,791.79 basis points. Similarly, the overall market capitalisation gained N316bn to close at N158.715tn.

The market’s positive performance was driven by price appreciation in large and medium-capitalised stocks, including Nigerian Exchange Group, MTN Nigeria Communications, Nigerian Breweries, Transnational Corporation, and Champion Breweries.

Investor sentiment was positive, as 34 gainers outpaced 25 losers. Sovereign Trust Insurance recorded the highest price gain of 9.69 per cent to close at N2.15 per share.

Champion Breweries followed with a gain of 9.50 per cent to close at N10.95, while Livestock Feeds rose by 9.42 per cent to close at N7.55 per share.

Learn Africa gained 9.09 per cent to close at N8.40, while Mutual Benefits Assurance rose by 8.93 per cent to close at N3.05 per share.

On the other hand, Industrial & Medical Gases Nigeria led the losers’ chart by 9.93 per cent to close at N27.65 per share. John Holt followed with a decline of 9.88 per cent to close at N7.30, while LivingTrust Mortgage Bank shed 9.84 per cent to close at N2.84 per share.

Fidson Healthcare lost 9.19 per cent to close at N72.65, while Royal Exchange dropped 9.00 per cent to close at 91k per share.

The total volume traded advanced by 31.1 per cent to 662.43 million units, valued at N37.45bn, and exchanged in 63,271 deals.

Transactions in the shares of Sterling Financial Holdings Company topped the activity chart with 142.04 million shares valued at N1.07bn. AIICO Insurance followed with 73.63 million shares worth N274.42m, while Fidelity Bank traded 43.33 million shares valued at N873.38m.

Guaranty Trust Holding Company traded 40.55 million shares valued at N5.27bn, while Zenith Bank transacted 34.87 million shares worth N4.47bn.

Foreign portfolio investment into Nigeria rose sharply in the first quarter of 2026, reaching $6.03bn as international investors increased their exposure to Nigerian equities and other financial assets.

The figure represents a 14.4 per cent increase from the $5.27bn recorded in the preceding quarter, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Q1 2026 Economic Report.

Portfolio investment was by far the largest component of Nigeria’s $7.22bn financial liabilities during the quarter, highlighting the growing role of foreign investors in the country’s securities markets.

The latest data also shows a widening gap between portfolio and direct investment, with foreign portfolio flows almost six times the $1.03bn recorded as direct investment liabilities during the period.

Direct investment liabilities fell by 7.09 per cent quarter-on-quarter, while other investment liabilities stood at $220m.

The divergence suggests that a larger share of foreign capital entering Nigeria during the quarter was directed towards tradable financial assets rather than investments involving longer-term ownership or operational commitments.

The CBN attributed the increase in portfolio investment largely to higher purchases of Nigerian equities by foreign investors.

The stronger inflow came against the backdrop of improved external sector conditions during the quarter, with total foreign exchange inflows rising 13.26 per cent to $31.34bn from $27.67bn in the fourth quarter of 2025.

At the same time, foreign exchange outflows declined 11.78 per cent to $11.01bn.

The combination produced a net foreign exchange inflow of $20.33bn, significantly higher than the $15.19bn recorded in the previous quarter.

Autonomous sources accounted for $21.15bn of total FX inflows, representing a 23.90 per cent increase quarter-on-quarter.

The CBN said net inflows from autonomous sources reached $17.53bn, more than six times the $2.80bn recorded through the CBN and banking system combined.

Nigeria’s stronger external position was also reflected in the movement of its foreign exchange reserves.

The country’s external reserves rose to $48.35bn at the end of March 2026, compared with $45.75bn at the end of December 2025.

The reserve level provided about 8.84 months of import cover, substantially above the three-month benchmark commonly used to assess external liquidity adequacy.

However, the surge in portfolio investment also increased Nigeria’s foreign financial obligations.

Total international financial liabilities rose to $226.58bn from $220.82bn during the quarter.

Portfolio investment liabilities increased 14.08 per cent to $58.01bn, making them the fastest-growing component of Nigeria’s international financial liabilities.

Direct investment liabilities remained the largest category at $90.38bn, while other investment liabilities stood at $78.03bn.

Against international financial assets of $127.34bn, Nigeria’s net international investment position remained negative at $99.24bn

The increase in portfolio flows coincided with strong demand for Nigerian naira-denominated securities during the quarter.

Central Bank of Nigeria Open Market Operations bills attracted N35.62tnin subscriptions against N9tn offered, while Nigerian treasury bills received N24.93tn in bids against N7.97tn offered.

The heavy demand for government and central bank securities indicates strong investor appetite for Nigerian fixed-income instruments, although the CBN’s financial account data also shows that equities accounted for much of the increase in portfolio investment during the quarter.

The development comes as Nigeria seeks to deepen foreign participation in its domestic capital markets and improve access to international capital.

The growing foreign participation in Nigeria’s securities market comes against a sizeable public debt stock.

Nigeria’s consolidated public debt stood at N159.27tn at the end of December 2025, representing 36.94 per cent of GDP.

Dangote oil refinery has maintained its position as a key supplier of fuel to Europe following disruptions to Middle East exports.

This further highlights its growing influence on global fuel markets and generating record profits ahead of its stock market debut.

With ramping up fuel exports this year during the crisis enabled the refinery to deliver a net profit of $1.82 billion in the first half of 2026 on revenue of more than $13 billion, according to its prospectus, compared with a loss of $476 million in all of 2025, as conflict-related disruptions lifted refining margins and increased demand for its exports.

Established to end Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel, Dangote’s refinery is increasingly influencing global fuel flows at a time of market stress a trend that is set to continue as disruptions to Middle East supply persist and the refinery expands capacity.

“Dangote’s role is likely to increase materially in coming years”, Janiv Shah of Rystad Energy told media. “The largest structural impact will be on gasoline. Jet fuel and diesel also becoming increasingly important”.

After Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S.-Israeli attacks at the end of February, Europe lost a quarter of its supply of diesel and jet fuel. The resulting drop in Middle East exports has helped send fuel inventories in Northwest Europe’s oil trading hub to their lowest in 12 years.

Europe imported about 80,000 barrels per day of jet fuel from Dangote during the second quarter, equivalent to roughly 13 per cent of the resulting supply shortfall and making the refinery the continent’s largest supplier of the fuel, according to Kpler data. Only the U.S. provided more of Europe’s imports than Nigeria in that time on a country level, the data show.

“Without Dangote, Europe would still have sourced fuel but at a higher clearing price. There might have also been deeper inventory draws”, Rystad’s Shah highlighted.

Refinery helps to ease tight market. Dangote also boosted exports of diesel and gasoil, which like jet fuel are among a group of fuels known as middle distillates.

Dangote’s diesel and gasoil exports rose by 23 per cent to 48,000 bpd in 2026 to date, according to Kpler.

“These barrels have increasingly supplied West Africa and Europe, where they have helped ease an otherwise tight middle-distillate market”, Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia said.

The refinery’s impact on middle distillates adds to the significant influence Dangote has had on gasoline flows since it started operating in 2024.

Dangote produced roughly 270,000 to 300,000 bpd of gasoline in 2026 to date, according to Kpler. As a result, Nigeria’s imports of the fuel have tumbled from around 400,000 bpd in 2024 to just 83,000 bpd this year.

Europe traditionally supplied most of that volume, in a trade that was once worth $17 billion a year.

Dangote is seeking to double capacity to 1.4 million bpd by 2029, which would make it the joint-largest refinery in the world alongside Reliance’s Jamnagar facility in India.

Asked about the refinery’s expansion plans, Chief Executive David Bird told Reuters that a new diesel hydrotreater would allow Dangote to produce a wider range of diesel specifications for export.

“We need to make sure we can land our product in any market, anywhere in the world, at any time of year,” he said.