Nigerian fuel marketers are increasingly importing refined petroleum products originating from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery through the offshore ship-to-ship trading hub in Lome, Togo, according to an S&P Global Energy official, Matthew Tracey-Cook.

Tracey-Cook said the circular trade pattern persists even as the refinery boosts local production and supply, highlighting a possible disparity between local and international pricing.

Speaking on Thursday at a MEMAN webinar themed “West Africa pricing and flows in the context of the war,” Tracey-Cook provided insights into evolving West African refined products markets, emphasising the deepening interconnection between Dangote’s coastal operations and the Lome STS hub.

He said Dangote volumes on a coastal basis do arrive back in Lagos from Lomé. Tracey-Cook presented data showing a marked shift in supply sources for Nigeria.

While waterborne imports exclude truck volumes, Dangote-origin products have become dominant in waterborne deliveries to Lagos and other Nigerian locations.

“Over the last six months, if you look at the volume of products on a waterborne basis that’s imported directly into Nigeria, Dangote production has become increasingly dominant,” he said.

He noted particularly strong performance between March and May 2026, saying, “For several months, from March until May, we saw well over 70 to 80 per cent of the volumes that were imported into Nigeria actually originated from Dangote; from their coastal Dangote volumes which were re-imported.”

He added that similar patterns appear on the diesel side, noting that “the increasing importance of the Dangote refinery in terms of product that’s flowing into Nigeria is really evident” from S&P Global data.

He stressed that despite Dangote’s growing direct coastal supply, offshore Lome has not diminished in importance, as the Lomé market is still slightly bigger compared to 2024 levels.

In certain months, such as November and December 2025, Lome handled significantly larger volumes. The hub serves as a flexible STS facility where larger medium-range tankers discharge cargoes that are then lifted onto smaller coaster vessels better suited to many West African ports with limited capacity.

“Lomé has become an increasingly important transshipment hub for filling regional shortages across the region… It serves an important purpose, given that many ports in West Africa don’t have the capacity to take a fully laden MR-sized vessel,” he added.

Charts from the webinar illustrate substantial Dangote exports to offshore Lome. These volumes include petrol, diesel, jet fuel and other clean products. Offshore Lome receives diverse origins but consistently incorporates significant Dangote cargoes.

Tracey-Cook also addressed pricing trends, noting an unusual seasonal pattern since the Middle East crisis began, adding, “This is really an unusual seasonal trend where gasoline in West Africa is significantly more expensive than it is in Europe right now.”

He added that Dangote petrol pricing remains tightly aligned with STS Lome benchmarks, while price differentials between the two locations enable effective risk management.

Tracey-Cook positioned Dangote and Lome as twin pillars of West African supply. “These two locations, the FOB Dangote market and also the STS Lomé market, are the two largest and most important regional hubs of supply in the region as a whole.

“You can, in a way, kind of compare it to the Mediterranean market, where you have multiple refineries, multiple sources of supply… And so that’s kind of what we see as a possibility in terms of development of this market,” he stressed.

It was disclosed that the US-Iran war’s impact has amplified Dangote’s role. “Looking at the context of the war, one of the most important things that stands out is the importance of Dangote in supplying not just West Africa, in terms of being a supplier of last resort across clean products, but also the European market.

“Europe before the war was more than 50 per cent reliant on jet fuel from inside the Persian Gulf. And when that supply was cut off, benchmark prices spiked to well over $1,800 per metric tonne.

“What we saw in the months after the war broke out was an increasing flow of product from the US, but also a large flow of product from Dangote. We actually saw in May Dangote being the largest single exporter of jet fuel globally in terms of refined product capacity,” Tracey-Cook noted.

He showed record Dangote exports outside West Africa from April to June 2026, with notable deliveries to the UK, the Netherlands and South Africa, among others.

The PUNCH recalls that some fuel importers in the country alleged in November 2025 that the Dangote refinery sells a litre of petrol to international traders at N65 cheaper than the amount it offers to marketers in Nigeria.

The Depot and Petroleum Product Marketers Association of Nigeria and the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria confirmed this in separate interviews with our correspondent at the time.

“Dangote is selling to international traders at N65 lower than what he offers in Nigeria. How is it possible for some of our members to buy from someone who bought from Dangote?

“Dangote sells to international traders at N65 cheaper than what he is selling to us. In some instances, we were able to buy from those people and still bring it to Nigeria. They will take the product to Lomé, claiming that they are buying large quantities,” DAPPMAN said in 2025.

But the refinery dispelled the allegation of cheaper petrol sales in Togo compared to Nigeria, with many Nigerians questioning how local marketers could leave the producer of a product in his home country to buy it from another trader in Togo.

The Chairman of United Nigeria Airlines and spokesperson for the Airline Operators of Nigeria, Prof Obiora Okonkwo, has disclosed that the airline lost about N10bn within three months as a result of disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid tensions involving the United States and Iran.

Okonkwo said the geopolitical crisis triggered a rise in aviation fuel prices, worsening operating conditions for domestic carriers already battling high operating costs and infrastructure challenges.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, is regarded as the world’s most critical oil transit route, handling nearly 20 per cent of global petroleum shipments. Its disruption sent shockwaves through global energy markets and significantly impacted Nigeria’s aviation industry.

He spoke during the unveiling of two newly acquired Boeing 737-800 Next Generation aircraft, registered as 5N-CFC and 5N-CFB, by United Nigeria Airlines. The aircraft were named after the Obi of Onitsha, Igwe Nnaemeka Achebe, and the late literary icon Chinua Achebe.

Reflecting on the airline’s recent challenges, Okonkwo acknowledged that reforms introduced by the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, had helped stabilise the sector, but external economic pressures remained severe.

“There are seasons when there are low passengers, but in the last three months, what we have seen is simply too much. We have lost about N10bn, N5bn, N6bn in a space of three months as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. We have to make up for the losses we have incurred in the last three months,” he said.

Despite the setbacks, the airline chief described the acquisition of the new aircraft as a major milestone and a sign of resilience in the Nigerian aviation sector.

“We have gathered here to celebrate. Two, three, four years ago, it was not clear what the future of aviation would be. There were issues, and in Nigeria, aviation was in total turmoil. But until our minister, Festus Keyamo, stepped in, we had a meeting in his office where he promised he would address the policy issues. Today, the right policies have helped us come this far,” he added.

Speaking on the choice of names for the aircraft, Okonkwo paid tribute to both Chinua Achebe and the Obi of Onitsha.

“Today we have one Achebe that introduced Africa to the whole world. He is from my hometown. Wherever I go around the world, I tell them that Okonkwo in Things Fall Apart is my great-great-grandfather. We have another Achebe who is a living legend and icon. We have here the Obi of Onitsha, Nnaemeka Achebe,” he said.

Providing insight into the airline’s expansion plans, he revealed that the newly acquired aircraft are part of a broader fleet acquisition programme, promising that more aircraft will arrive in the country before the year runs out.

“It is going to be six aircraft in total, and we just have two here. I thank God Almighty for making this possible,” he said.

Okonkwo also commended the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority for expediting the certification process for the aircraft, describing the regulator’s support as crucial to the airline’s growth.

“We are thankful to the DG of the NCAA who has made our services possible. I had told him I had three aircraft that were arriving. Three of his directors came to our office on a Saturday, prepared all the documents, inspected the aircraft, and issued all the certificates. The process of operating aircraft won’t be easy without ease in certifications,” he said.

The airline chairman further highlighted the operational difficulties airlines face daily, stressing that delays are often caused by factors beyond the control of carriers.

“I know we have passengers in Nigeria that want to get to their destinations. The important thing is to get passengers to their destinations safely and in time. The truth of the matter is that the operator wants to take you there on time.

“That you buy a ticket doesn’t put money in our pockets, because you can demand a refund. Sometimes we meet situations beyond our control. When one aircraft goes bad, we start to work on the schedule so we don’t leave anyone behind. Sometimes it is a bird strike, sometimes it could be because of airport availability,” he explained.

Okonkwo also criticised the financial structure governing aviation agencies, arguing that excessive deductions from the revenues of the NCAA and the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria were limiting their ability to improve infrastructure and service delivery.

“Minister, we are not happy with the recent report from IATA that Nigeria is the most expensive place to operate. It means it costs operators more to operate. We want a reduction in the charges,” he said.

“The government yanks 70 per cent from the aviation accounts to do other things that are not aviation-related, and this strains the NCAA and FAAN. If we leave these monies in their accounts, they will be encouraged to provide the needed services. The core aspect of the Nigerian economy is driven by aviation. In conclusion, when this is done, the government can also provide a single-digit loan,” he added.

Speaking on behalf of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Executive Sales Director for Africa, Moore Ibekwe, said recent reforms in Nigeria’s aviation sector have improved access to financing, strengthened regulatory compliance and enhanced safety standards, creating a more attractive environment for aircraft acquisition and industry growth.

Petrol and diesel prices have started to decline as global crude oil prices retreat following the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The reductions, led by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and followed by some private depot operators, have raised expectations of further cuts in fuel prices, although marketers say the adjustments will be gradual to prevent heavy losses on existing stock.

The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria stated that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery will not embark on sudden fuel price cuts to prevent marketers from incurring heavy losses.

Even as oil prices continue to decline following the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, IPMAN said the refinery would rather adopt what it described as systematic price adjustments instead of drastic reductions.

Following the drop in crude oil prices from a high of $120 per barrel during the United States-Iran conflict to about $78 after a peace deal was reached on Sunday, the Dangote refinery reduced its petrol gantry price by N75 per litre. The refinery had raised the price from N830 to over N1,300 per litre during the crisis.

The refinery also reduced the prices of diesel and aviation fuel by N100 per litre each, citing the easing of tensions in the Middle East. However, many Nigerians argued that the reductions did not reflect the sharp decline in crude oil prices.

Speaking in an interview, IPMAN spokesman, Chinedu Ukadike, said the refinery understands the implications of a sudden price crash on fuel marketers.

“The reduction will be systematic. If Dangote does that reduction holistically, it will certainly affect some people who have products, and they might not be able to sell the products. This will cost marketers huge losses.

“Systematically, normalcy will return in a gradual way, and Dangote’s fuel price will reflect the new cost of crude oil in the international market. The refinery will look at its cost of refining and determine a fair price for all,” Ukadike said, urging Nigerians to exercise patience.

On the planned reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Ukadike said the fuel market was already entering what he described as a descending phase, with marketers becoming more cautious about taking fresh stock.

“With the plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the sector is now on a descending frequency. Prices will be coming down in the next couple of weeks. So, marketers will also be careful while taking new stocks,” he said.

A source within the Dangote Group told our correspondent that the refinery was still observing market developments while processing crude purchased during the crisis period. The source said those criticising the refinery for not cutting prices more aggressively may not fully understand the dynamics of the oil business.

“Crude prices are still swinging. People making such comments are either insincere or they don’t know the business. Let them go and check the prices all over Africa or the world,” the source said, adding that prices could still drop to as low as N900 per litre, “but we still have the expensive crude in our tanks”.

As crude prices continued to fall following the peace agreement between the United States and Iran, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery cut its petrol gantry price by N75 per litre, from N1,250 to N1,175.

The reduction prompted some private depot operators to lower their prices to around N1,180 per litre on Tuesday, according to Petroleumprice.ng.

Checks by our correspondent on Wednesday showed that many filling stations had yet to adjust their pump prices, with several still selling petrol at about N1,280 per litre. Marketers attributed the delay to the need to clear existing stock purchased at higher prices.

However, some filling stations reduced pump prices by about N10 per litre following Dangote’s latest adjustment. Marketers said further reductions from suppliers and retailers could emerge between the weekend and next week.

Meanwhile, the Dangote refinery also lowered its gantry prices for diesel and aviation fuel on Wednesday. According to data from Petroleumprice.ng, the refinery reduced the diesel gantry price by N100 per litre, from N1,700 to N1,600, while aviation fuel was cut by the same margin, from N1,550 to N1,450 per litre.

The reductions came hours after the refinery announced the N75 reduction in the petrol gantry price from N1,250 to N1,175 per litre. The price adjustments were linked to the decline in crude oil prices following the easing of tensions in the Middle East.

It was gathered that private depot operators had also begun lowering prices to remain competitive with the Dangote refinery. According to Petroleumprice.ng, Rainoil reduced its aviation fuel price from N1,553 per litre to N1,550 per litre on Monday. Similarly, the average diesel closing price across Lagos depots, including African Terminal, Sahara, Ibeto and Duport, stood at N1,660 per litre on Tuesday.