Nigeria’s headline inflation fell to 14.63 per cent in September 2026, down from 15.39 per cent in August, despite energy costs rising 5.38 per cent during the month.
The latest Consumer Price Index report released on Thursday by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that inflation moderated by 0.76 percentage points, reaching its lowest year-on-year level in 2026, largely supported by declining food prices.
However, the report revealed contrasting price movements across major components of the economy, with energy costs rising sharply and core inflation accelerating despite the overall moderation in consumer prices.
The NBS stated, “In September 2026, the Headline inflation rate stood at 14.63 per cent, down from 15.39 per cent in August 2026 and stood at 20.98 per cent in the same month of the preceding year (September 2025).”
The decline represented a reduction of 6.35 percentage points compared with September 2025, when inflation stood at 20.98 per cent.
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation slowed significantly to 0.06 per cent in September from 0.71 per cent in August, representing a decline of 0.65 percentage points.
Despite the slowdown, the Consumer Price Index increased marginally to 146.38 points from 146.30 points in August, indicating that average prices continued to rise, although at a slower pace.
The bureau explained, “This means that in September 2026, the rate of increase in the average price level was lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in August 2026.”
A breakdown of the report showed that energy inflation accelerated sharply on a monthly basis to 5.38 per cent in September from 0.36 per cent in August, representing an increase of 5.02 percentage points.
On a year-on-year basis, energy inflation stood at 10.85 per cent, highlighting the continued pressure from energy-related expenses on households and businesses.
Food inflation stood at 19.59 per cent year-on-year in September, compared with 20.16 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, food prices declined by 1.55 per cent, reversing the 1.02 per cent increase recorded in August.
Imported food inflation stood at 9.18 per cent year-on-year, while its monthly increase slowed to 0.04 per cent from 0.91 per cent in August.
Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, stood at 12.95 per cent year-on-year, compared with 22.11 per cent recorded in September 2025.
Across the country, Imo recorded the highest year-on-year headline inflation at 30.04 per cent, followed by Enugu at 22.38 per cent and Niger at 22.05 per cent.
Taraba recorded the lowest headline inflation at 1.78 per cent, followed by Bauchi at 2.84 per cent and Adamawa at 3.66 per cent.
For food inflation, Lagos recorded the highest annual rate at 34.40 per cent, followed by Imo at 33.79 per cent and Ondo at 31.49 per cent.
Conversely, Taraba and Yobe recorded food deflation of 7.47 per cent and 0.37 per cent, respectively, while Borno recorded an increase of 2.18 per cent.
The NBS identified food and non-alcoholic beverages as the largest contributors to annual headline inflation, accounting for 5.85 percentage points.
Reacting to the report, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, welcomed the decline in headline inflation but warned that rising energy costs and persistent food inflation could undermine the gains.
In a policy brief issued on Thursday, Yusuf said the moderation strengthened the case for further monetary easing to reduce borrowing costs and stimulate private-sector investment.
He said, “With inflation moderating, the case for further monetary easing has strengthened, particularly given the elevated cost of credit and its adverse consequences for investment, working capital and productive capacity.”
However, he said monthly energy inflation surged from 0.36 per cent in August to 5.38 per cent in September, warning that higher petrol, diesel and gas prices could raise production, transportation and food costs.
“The sharp monthly energy-price increase also raises the risk that the recent disinflationary gains could be reversed if higher energy costs persist,” Yusuf warned.