No plan to borrow from IMF’s $50bn fund – FG

The Federal Government on Thursday declared that it has no plan to approach the International Monetary Fund to borrow from the estimated $50bn, which the IMF had earlier announced on Wednesday that it plans to use and support struggling economies in Africa.

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Wale Edun, disclosed this at a press briefing during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the World Bank/IMF in Washington DC, United States.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the Managing Director, IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, had advised countries facing economic pressures to act swiftly in seeking financial support when necessary, warning that delays could worsen economic conditions.

“My advice is that when you need help financially, don’t hesitate to move fast, because the sooner we act, the more we protect the economy,” she

Georgieva also revealed that the institution was committed to financially supporting member countries through the current challenges, adding that about $20bn to $50bn was being planned by the IMF for this exercise.

“We anticipate financial demand for IMF support to range between $20bn and $50bn, which represents augmentation of some existing problems and prospective demands from new problems from at least a dozen countries, a number of them in Sub-Saharan Africa,” she said.

But while responding to a question on Thursday, whether the Federal Government would approach the IMF to borrow from the fund, Nigeria’s finance minister, Edun, responded negatively.

“Nigeria has no plan at the moment to approach the IMF for any other such burden,” Edun declared.

The minister also told the meeting on Thursday that African nations need “extra help” at this moment.

He noted that the Middle East crisis is one that affects African countries and economies disproportionately, stressing that while nations in this region “are not creators in any way of this situation, they stand to command greater pressure than perhaps any other region.”

The minister added, “This is in terms of the threat to macroeconomic stability, growth trajectories, and their ability to create jobs and reduce poverty in their countries.

And I think that is a clear statement, particularly to those identified as the most vulnerable oil-importing countries. They need and deserve extra help at this time.”

Recall that Georgieva earlier observed that many of the countries most affected by the Middle East crisis are located in Sub-Saharan Africa, adding that the IMF was working to identify those in urgent need of assistance. “We are very determined to use this week to identify which of the countries must get our support,” she stated.

She emphasised the importance of strong fiscal and economic policies, urging governments to build buffers during periods of economic stability to better withstand future shocks. According to her, prudent economic management in good times remains critical for resilience during downturns.

The IMF chief also disclosed that during a meeting with central bank governors and finance ministers from Africa held the previous day, officials did not request immediate financial assistance but instead sought policy guidance.

“But, of course, there could be a need for financial support. And my advice is that when you need help financially, don’t hesitate to move fast, because the sooner we act, the more we protect the economy,” she said.

Georgieva highlighted the broader global implications of the Middle East conflict, noting that it has already inflicted significant economic damage. “We have been watching developments in the Middle East. A war that causes significant pain to people and economies in the region and around the world. The impact on the global economy is already large,” she said.

She explained that supply chain disruptions and damage to infrastructure are driving up prices and slowing global economic growth. According to her, global growth is projected to decline from 3.4 per cent last year to 2.1 per cent in 2026. She warned that if the conflict persists and oil prices remain elevated for a prolonged period, global economic conditions could deteriorate further.

“But if the conflict persists, and oil prices stay high for an extended period, we must brace for tough times ahead,” she added.

On the IMF’s global outlook, Georgieva cautioned that in a worst-case scenario, global growth could fall to two per cent, stressing that the impact would be widespread. She noted that countries that depend on energy imports are particularly vulnerable, many of which are low-income or fragile economies.

“In the most adverse case, growth could fall to two per cent, and the shock is global,” she said, adding that the highest negative impact is being felt by energy-importing nations.

MTN suspends Xtratime over new lending regulations

MTN-new-logo-e1663465256894MTN Nigeria, the country’s largest telecoms operator, has suspended its airtime and data lending service known as “Xtratime” as new regulatory requirements under Nigeria’s expanded digital credit rules take effect.

The company said the temporary suspension was driven by compliance obligations under the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission’s Digital, Electronic, Online or Non-Traditional Consumer Lending Regulations, 2025, which introduce a revised licensing and oversight framework for providers of digital credit services.

MTN disclosed the decision in a corporate filing to the Nigerian Exchange Limited on Thursday, noting that Xtratime, which allows prepaid subscribers to borrow airtime or data and repay on their next recharge, would remain unavailable while the company aligns with the new requirements.

In the disclosure signed by its Company Secretary, Uto Ukpanah, MTN said the service falls within the scope of the updated regulations and therefore requires additional compliance processes before it can resume.

“MTN Nigeria Communications PLC hereby notifies the Nigerian Exchange Limited and the investing public that the company has temporarily suspended its airtime and data credit advance service (‘Xtratime’),” the company said.

It added that the suspension relates to “the implementation of processes under the Digital, Electronic, Online or Non-Traditional Consumer Lending Regulations, 2025, which introduced a new compliance and licensing framework for entities providing digital or non-traditional consumer credit services”.

Despite the suspension, MTN said customers would continue to access other channels for purchasing airtime and data and stressed that the decision is not expected to materially affect earnings.

“Given the scale within the revenue mix, we do not expect the temporary suspension to have a material impact,” the company said, adding that it was monitoring customer behaviour and usage patterns and would provide updates in its first-quarter 2026 results.

The suspension highlights the widening scope of Nigeria’s consumer lending regulation, which now extends beyond traditional financial institutions t include telecoms operators and other providers of short-term digital credit.

The FCCPC had previously introduced a limited regulatory framework for digital lending in 2022 but escalated its oversight with the 2025 regulations, which require all operators in the sector to register and obtain approval to continue offering services.

Under the rules, companies providing non-traditional credit services, including airtime and data advances, are required to comply with licensing conditions as part of efforts to improve transparency, consumer protection, and data governance in the rapidly growing digital lending space.

The commission has also set transitional deadlines for operators already providing such services, with a compliance window extended to April 2026 for full registration under the new framework.

The regulatory tightening reflects broader concerns around consumer debt exposure, data privacy, and aggressive lending practices in Nigeria’s fast-expanding digital credit market, which has seen rapid growth in recent years alongside mobile penetration.

For telecom operators, the changes introduce a new layer of compliance in services that have become a key feature of prepaid mobile offerings, particularly for low-income users who rely on short-term airtime advances to stay connected.

MTN said it would continue to monitor developments under the new framework as it works toward full compliance before resuming the service.

Crude oil prices rise on renewed US-Iran talks

Crude oilCrude oil prices moved higher on Thursday, with WTI trading near $92 per barrel and Brent rising above $95, as markets rebounded from earlier weakness and tracked fresh developments around the US-Iran conflict. The recovery comes as traders reassess geopolitical risks and weigh whether ongoing ceasefire discussions could stabilise supply routes.

Coin Paper reports indicate that Washington and Tehran are considering extending their current two-week ceasefire to allow more time for negotiations. That possibility has started to shift sentiment.

The White House has signalled optimism about a potential agreement, with officials pointing toward a second round of talks likely to take place in Pakistan. At the same time, Iranian officials are engaging in parallel discussions, including meetings in Tehran aimed at relaying messages between both sides.

Despite the talks, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed under a US naval blockade targeting Iranian ports. This chokepoint handles a significant share of global oil shipments, so any disruption quickly ripples through energy market

While US officials say they have halted commercial traffic to and from Iranian ports, some Iran-linked vessels have continued to move through the strait. That contradiction raises a key question: how much supply actually flows right now? The answer remains unclear, and that uncertainty keeps volatility elevated.

Iran has also issued warnings. Officials have indicated that an extended blockade could trigger retaliation, including disruptions across the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and even the Red Sea. Such threats continue to anchor risk premiums in oil prices.

At the same time, military developments continue to shape expectations. Reports suggest that the US Department of Defence plans to deploy thousands of additional troops to the region in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon highlight how the conflict extends beyond a single front.

These overlapping tensions complicate the outlook. Even as diplomacy gains traction, military activity continues to influence trader sentiment. The market now faces two competing forces: optimism around talks and concern over escalation.

Attention now shifts to the expected second round of US-Iran negotiations. These discussions will likely focus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and addressing Iran’s nuclear programme. Progress on either front could quickly shift market direction.

Investors also track broader regional diplomacy. Planned talks between Israel and Lebanon mark another potential turning point, especially as efforts to reduce cross-border tensions gain momentum.

Oil markets now move in a narrow but volatile range, reacting to every update. Traders watch closely for confirmation of a ceasefire extension and any signals that shipping routes may reopen. Each headline carries weight, and price swings reflect that reality in real time.

 

Nigerian Breweries strengthens operations against macro risks

Nigerian Breweries PlcNigerian Breweries Plc has assured stakeholders and consumers that it is strengthening its operations against key risks, including supply chain disruptions linked to the Middle East crisis, naira instability, and rising inflation, particularly food inflation.

The company outlined strategies to sustain growth and protect consumers from pricing shocks during its 80th pre-annual general meeting media briefing held in Lagos on Thursday. Explaining the strategies, NB Plc Finance Director Maria Karaseva said the brewer had identified three major external risks and was proactively managing them to build resilience. She noted that Heineken’s financial moat kept the company relatively secure.

Karaseva said, “We are pulling out three factors, and they have different impacts on us. First is the sustainability of supply driven by the Middle East crisis, which affects our ability to maintain consistent production levels and meet market demand. Here we are relatively in control. We are part of the Heineken Group. Heineken is our major investor. We are relying on the proven supply cusps and tracks. We are tracking regularly the sustainability of our supply. We see no big issues coming out of Nigeria from what is going on.”

Karaseva added that the company was leveraging its relationship with its majority shareholder to cushion potential supply shocks.

On currency volatility, she said the firm was deploying financial hedging tools to protect its business, particularly in response to the instability of the naira, which has been fluctuating significantly against major currencies. “The second thing is the instability of the naira. We have observed it so far. The naira passed the stress test when the crisis happened,” she noted. “It continues to be stable, and I should say that this is fundamental for the economy of Nigeria to have a stable currency. We really ask the government to continue with its efforts to keep the naira’s stability in place. From our side, we are also using financial instruments and tools to protect us against potential volatility.”

Addressing inflationary pressures, particularly rising food prices, Karaseva said the company was focused on maintaining affordability for consumers through flexible pricing strategies.

She said, “The third factor on the macro level which can impact us is the rise in inflation, especially in food. We, as Nigerian communities, feel a responsibility as leaders of this category. We feel responsible for what happens with the price of the products and the affordability of our products to the consumers. So we are doing all that we can.

“We have a very wide tool set on how not to take pricing further in this difficult environment. We have global food practices which we are bringing to Nigerian ground to contain pricing inflation.”

The finance chief added that the company was building a resilient structure capable of absorbing shocks if conditions worsen.

Karaseva said, “So these are the major risks, and we are on a pathway to build a resilient structure which will help us to absorb those shocks at least if they don’t escalate any further.”

The Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, Thibaut Boidin, also acknowledged that the operating environment remained volatile, citing inflation, foreign exchange pressures, and weak consumer purchasing power.

He said, “It’s not a secret that we’re operating in a very volatile environment, a very complex environment. (Although) In 2025, we can all recognise that the macroeconomic environment was a bit more stable than in the previous years, but we remain dependent on FX, and purchasing power remains under pressure.”

Boidin noted that the Middle East crisis continued to pose risks to the broader economy, while inflation had constrained beer consumption due to reduced disposable income.

Despite the challenges, the company reported a strong financial rebound in 2025. Group revenue rose by 35 per cent to N1.5tn, while gross profit increased 77 per cent to N565bn. Operating profit grew 194 per cent to N205bn.

The brewer also returned to profitability, posting a profit before tax of N161bn and a net profit of N99bn, compared to losses recorded in 2024.

Finance director Karaseva attributed the turnaround partly to improved cost management and reduced finance expenses following the company’s 2024 rights issue.

She said, “2025 was really a financially successful year for us. In 2024, the operating environment was really difficult, but in 2025, the stability of the Naira, the strength of our brands, and a focus on premiumisation supported the growth in our results.”

The company also recorded a positive cash flow position after years of negative balances, reflecting improved operational efficiency.

Looking ahead, Nigerian Breweries said it would prioritise consumer protection and affordability while maintaining financial discipline.

Karaseva said, “Taking very accurate revenue management, not passing all the problems happening around us to our consumers, is our prime goal, and we will see that in the year 2026.”

NB Plc added that while it had made a significant recovery, it would retain earnings to strengthen its balance sheet amid ongoing uncertainties, with dividend payments to resume once the business fully exits its recovery phase.

AXA Mansard grows by revenue 22% to N160.56bn

AXA Mansard HealthAXA Mansard Insurance Plc has reported a robust 22 per cent increase in insurance revenues, reaching N160.56bn for the financial year ended 31 December 2025. The results, released in Lagos, underscore the insurer’s resilience in a macroeconomic environment characterised by heightened inflationary pressures and foreign exchange volatility.

The growth was broad-based across the Group’s core segments, with Gross Written Premiums rising 23 per cent to N170.87bn. The performance was particularly bolstered by a 40 per cent surge in the health insurance segment, alongside steady gains in Property & Casualty and Life & Savings operations.

Commenting on the financial performance, the Chief Financial Officer of AXA Mansard, Ngozi Ola-Israel, said, “Our performance reflects strong execution and resilience across our diversified portfolio.

While Profit Before Tax declined to N6.12bn, this was largely due to the absence of the significant foreign exchange gains recorded in 2024. Adjusting for this non-recurring impact, our underlying profit would have grown by 50 per cent year-on-year.

Despite the impressive topline growth, the insurer faced significant bottom-line pressure. Profit After Tax dropped to N0.62bn, impacted by a N1bn FX loss compared to a N27bn gain in the previous year, as well as an increase in capital gains tax from 10 per cent to 30 per cent.

Addressing the strategic direction of the company amid these headwinds, the leadership emphasised that the firm’s focus remains on long-term stability and capital preservation.

Similarly, the Chief Executive Officer of AXA Mansard, Kunle Ahmed, said, “We delivered strong topline growth and stable underlying earnings despite cost pressures and global economic uncertainties. Our current financial position comfortably exceeds the new minimum capital requirements of N15bn for non-life and N10bn for life operations. To further strengthen these buffers, the board has decided not to propose dividend payments for the 2025 financial year.”

The company’s asset base grew 18 per cent to N227.94bn, while shareholders’ funds rose to N52.3bn, reinforcing its capital strength ahead of the industry-wide recapitalisation exercise. The CEO expressed optimism that the company is well-positioned to navigate the evolving regulatory landscape.

“With a strong balance sheet, disciplined execution, and clear strategic priorities, we are well positioned to improve profitability and deliver long-term value to shareholders as macroeconomic conditions stabilise and FX volatility eases,” Ahmed added.

Market analysts noted that AXA Mansard’s decision to retain earnings aligns with a broader trend of Nigerian insurers repositioning to meet stricter capital thresholds. The results also highlight the rapid expansion of the health insurance sector, which has become a critical revenue driver as corporate demand for employee coverage continues to rise across the country.

Seplat shares hits N10,000 as Heirs Energies investment drives rally

Seplat Energy PlcSeplat Energy Plc has become the first company in the 65-year history of the Nigerian Exchange to close above N10,000 per share, following a rally linked to a strategic investment by Tony Elumelu’s Heirs Energies.

Seplat closed trading on April 14, 2026, at N10,450 per share, representing an 80 per cent gain since January and adding approximately N2.9tn in market capitalisation within four months, according to a statement on Wednesday.

The rally traces to a transaction in December 2025, when Heirs Energies acquired a 20.07 per cent stake in Seplat Energy for about $500m, becoming the company’s largest shareholder. Elumelu subsequently joined Seplat’s Board as a Non-Executive Director in January 2026.

The $500m investment is now valued at over $800m, representing a $300m paper gain in under 120 days. Market analysts have described the surge as the “Elumelu effect,” citing the investor’s track record in transforming companies such as United Bank for Africa and Transcorp.

Since Heirs Energies became the largest shareholder, Seplat’s share price has gained more than N4,600, making it the most valuable indigenous energy stock on the continent.

The rally has also been supported by Nigeria’s recent reclassification by FTSE Russell from “Unclassified” to Frontier Market status, effective September 2026. Analysts project the upgrade could drive between $840m and over $1bn in foreign portfolio inflows into Nigerian equities, with Seplat positioned as a major beneficiary.

The company’s strong 2025 financial performance has further underpinned the share price growth. Revenue rose by 144 per cent to $2.73bn, while profit before tax increased by 86.7 per cent to $497.8m. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 137 per cent to $1.28bn, and total dividend increased by 52 per cent to 25.0 cents per share.

Seplat’s production averaged 131,506 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025, up 148 per cent, reflecting the first full-year consolidation of offshore assets following its acquisition of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited.

The company has issued a 2026 production guidance of 135–155 kboepd and plans to drill 17 new wells.

Following the record close, the NGX All-Share Index rose to an all-time high of 205,831.38 points, while the Oil & Gas Index gained 4.36 per cent, led by Seplat.

CardinalStone Research described Seplat as “the undisputed heavyweight driver of the session,” while Meristem Securities reinstated a Buy rating on the stock.

FCMB leverages culture to deepen markets, support SMEs

FCMBFirst City Monument Bank is positioning culture as an economic engine, leveraging platforms such as the Ibadan Cultural Festival to support small businesses, deepen inclusion, and connect local enterprises to broader markets.

As a lead partner in the festival organised by the Central Council of Ibadan Indigenes, the bank said in a statement on Wednesday that cultural gatherings are fast becoming viable commercial ecosystems, bringing together thousands of vendors, creatives, and service providers to drive economic activity.

Speaking at a press conference in Ibadan, FCMB’s Divisional Head of Corporate Affairs, Diran Olojo, said the bank’s approach is to enable participation, support business growth, and capture transaction flows within these ecosystems.

“We see culture as a functioning marketplace. Events like this concentrate demand, talent, and enterprise in one place.

Our role is to help businesses plug into that, through access to finance, visibility, and the systems that support transactions and growth,” he said.

He noted that the festival stimulates activity across hospitality, retail, transport, and the creative sector, while also attracting diaspora engagement that strengthens remittance flows and local investment.

The Ibadan Cultural Festival, also known as Okebadan, attracts residents, indigenes and visitors, driving a surge in commercial activity across the city.

President-General of the CCII, Ajeniyi Ajewole, said the festival has become both a cultural and economic platform.

“It drives tourism, supports local businesses, and creates an opportunity for Ibadan indigenes in the diaspora to return, reconnect, and contribute to the city’s growth,” he said. He added that FCMB’s involvement reflects growing private sector interest in culture-led development.

Chairman of the Planning Committee, Gbolagade Akere, said the 2026 edition is structured to strengthen Ibadan’s profile as a tourism and investment destination, with activities that combine cultural expression and economic engagement.

Dangote, Trump named in TIME 100 Most Influential People

Aliko DangoteGlobal business and political influence took centre stage as Nigerian industrialist Aliko Dangote and United States President Donald Trump have been named among TIME’s 100 Most Influential People for 2026, underscoring their continued impact on global markets, policy, and leadership discourse.

The list, released on April 15, recognises individuals shaping global discourse across business, politics, technology, and culture. Dangote and Trump were alongside prominent figures such as Xi Jinping, Benjamin Netanyahu, Mark Carney, and Pope Leo XIV, as well as business and technology leaders, including Sundar Pichai and Neal Mohan.

US President Donald Trump… (Photo by Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP)

Dangote, who featured in the Titans category, is the only Nigerian on the 2026 list, though not the only African. Other Africans recognised include Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, Precious Matsoso, Anok Yai, Mamadou Amadou Ly, and Zabib Musa Loro, reflecting broader African representation across leadership, health, culture, education, and peacebuilding.

This marks Dangote’s second appearance on the TIME100 list, having first been honoured in 2014 for his impact on business and philanthropy. His return more than a decade later shows the consistency and scale of his global influence.

As founder of Africa’s largest indigenous industrial conglomerate, Dangote has driven investments across cement manufacturing, sugar refining, fertiliser production, agriculture, and infrastructure, with a recent expansion into energy. These investments have significantly reduced reliance on imports while creating jobs and strengthening local production capacity across the continent.

In its citation, TIME highlighted Dangote’s long-term vision of building globally competitive industries using African resources, pointing to his large-scale investments in manufacturing and energy infrastructure as central to Africa’s economic transformation.

Other notable figures in the Titans category include Reid Wiseman, Commander of the Artemis II mission; Sundar Pichai; Neal Mohan; Michael and Susan Dell, founders of the Michael & Susan Dell Foundation; and Ralph Lauren, founder of the Ralph Lauren Corporation.

In the Pioneer category, individuals recognised for breakthroughs in science and social advocacy include Kiran Musunuru and Rebecca Ahrens-Nicklas for advances in genetic therapy, as well as Aaron Williams for contributions to heart transplant readiness.

The list also features influential figures in global entertainment and culture, such as Ranbir Kapoor, Dakota Johnson, and Kate Hudson, recognised for their impact in film and broader cultural influence.

Beyond his business achievements, Dangote is widely regarded for his philanthropic leadership through the Aliko Dangote Foundation, one of Africa’s largest private foundations, which supports initiatives in healthcare, nutrition, education, disaster relief, and economic empowerment.

The 2026 recognition also comes as the Dangote Group advances its long-term growth strategy, Vision 2030, aimed at transforming the conglomerate from a $30bn regional player into a $100bn global enterprise. The roadmap is structured in phases, with the first phase spanning 2025 to 2028, focused on scaling existing businesses in cement, fertiliser, and energy, while optimising assets for global competitiveness.

The second phase, covering 2028 to 2030, is expected to drive expansion into new sectors and international markets, including planned investments in steel manufacturing, power generation, and deep-sea ports to address critical industrial gaps across Africa.

The latest TIME recognition reflects growing global acknowledgement of African leadership and enterprise, with Dangote standing out for industrial scale, while other African honourees highlight influence across governance, public health, education, culture, and peacebuilding.

Airtel Africa deploys 1,500 base stations in one year

Airtel logoAfrica’s second biggest telco, Airtel, expanded its telecommunications infrastructure in Nigeria with the addition of more than 1,500 base stations over the past year, strengthening broadband capacity and extending connectivity to underserved areas as demand for data services continues to rise.

The expansion forms part of the company’s broader investment strategy aimed at improving network quality, supporting growing internet adoption and reinforcing Nigeria’s digital economy, the operator, which has 650 million customers,  said in a statement.

Over the past three years, Airtel Nigeria has increased its national site count from just above 13,000 to nearly 17,200 sites, marking one of the fastest infrastructure scaling phases in the operator’s recent history. The latest deployments have deepened capacity in high-demand urban corridors while expanding high-speed coverage into rural and previously underserved communities.

“Data from the Nigerian Communications Commission highlights the significance of Airtel’s infrastructure growth within the wider industry. As of December 2025, Nigeria recorded 145,141 base stations across 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G networks nationwide. Airtel accounts for 46,918 base-station layers, underscoring its substantial contribution to the country’s radio access network as mobile data consumption accelerates,” the company stated.

Nearly 99 per cent of Airtel Nigeria’s sites are now 4G-enabled, positioning the operator among providers with near-ubiquitous high-speed broadband coverage. Thousands of sites have also undergone capacity upgrades within the past year, improving speeds and enhancing network stability during peak usage periods.

The infrastructure expansion coincides with rising internet adoption across the country. According to the latest regulatory figures, Nigeria’s internet penetration has climbed above 50 per cent, with Airtel recording one of the largest monthly increases in new internet subscribers, supported by network upgrades across multiple states and rural corridors.

Beyond terrestrial network expansion, Airtel is also investing in international connectivity resilience to address Nigeria’s reliance on limited internet gateway routes.

The company is advancing plans for a second submarine cable internet breakout point at Kwa Ibo in Akwa Ibom State as part of the rollout of the 2Africa cable system. The additional landing point is expected to improve redundancy, increase speeds and enhance national network reliability for businesses and consumers.

Across the country, Airtel operates approximately 4,000 exclusive retail outlets, providing customer support, device access and digital services in urban centres, small towns and community markets. The extensive distribution network continues to serve as a key differentiator in improving service accessibility and customer engagement.

Fuel imports surge 97% despite improved local supply

The importation of Premium Motor Spirit, also known as petrol, by oil marketers increased sharply in March 2026, surging by about 96.7 per cent compared to February, according to the latest data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.

Latest data from the regulator’s March 2026 fact sheet obtained by our correspondent on Tuesday showed that petrol import volumes climbed from 3.0 million litres per day in February to 5.9 million litres per day in March, reflecting renewed reliance on foreign supply amid shifting domestic dynamics.

The report read, “Petrol import volumes rose significantly in March from 3.0 million litres per day in February to 5.9 million litres per day in March.”

At the same time, the NMDPRA said local supply is gradually improving. This growth is being driven by domestic refiners, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which is quickly becoming a major player in the market.

It said domestic petrol supply rose significantly from 30.5 million litres per day to 34.2 million litres per day, underscoring growing contributions from local refining capacity.

Overall, total daily petrol supply increased marginally from 39.5 million litres to 40.1 million litres during the period under review.

An analysis of the figures indicates that while imports nearly doubled within the month, domestic supply still accounted for the bulk of the market, reinforcing the increasing role of local refiners, particularly the Dangote refinery, as a stabilising force in Nigeria’s downstream sector.

The refinery operated at an average capacity utilisation of 93.62 per cent in March 2026.

Data on the refinery’s performance showed that it produced 48.2 million litres per day of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) during the period, out of which 34.2 million litres per day was supplied to the domestic market.

This indicates that Dangote alone accounted for about 72.3 per cent of Nigeria’s total petrol consumption, estimated at 47.3 million litres per day in March, reinforcing its position as the single largest supplier of fuel in the country.

In the diesel segment, the refinery produced 16.5 million litres per day of Automotive Gas Oil, with 2.2 million litres per day distributed locally, while the rest was either exported or held for other uses.

The data also revealed a notable decline in petrol consumption, which dropped from 56.9 million litres per day in February to 47.3 million litres per day in March, suggesting weaker demand due to the high pricing of petroleum products during the period.

Recall that the Dangote refinery increased its petrol price at least five times to N1,275 per litre in March.

Similarly, petrol stock sufficiency fell sharply from 30.7 days to 21.2 days, indicating tighter inventory levels despite increased imports.

The report also indicates growing concerns that the current days of petrol sufficiency may decline due to the limited number of import licences issued to marketers, raising fears of potential supply constraints.

Stakeholders warn that Nigeria could face fuel shortages if stock levels are not improved and supply buffers are not strengthened in the coming weeks.

This combination of rising imports, increasing domestic supply, and falling stock cover highlights ongoing adjustments in Nigeria’s fuel supply chain.

The development comes against the backdrop of policy shifts by the NMDPRA regarding petrol import licences.

Earlier, the regulator had restricted the issuance of new import licences in a bid to prioritise locally refined products and support investments in domestic refining, particularly following the commencement of operations at the Dangote refinery.

However, the authority later reinstated the issuance of import licences to oil marketers, citing the need to prevent supply disruptions and ensure energy security during the transition phase.

Further breakdown of the fact sheet showed that diesel (AGO) supply declined significantly from 24.4 million litres per day in February to 10.3 million litres per day in March, while LPG supply remained stable at 4.7 kilotonnes per day, with domestic contribution increasing.

Domestic gas supply also rose slightly from 4.771 billion standard cubic feet per day to 4.888 bscf/d, reflecting steady growth in the gas segment.

Commenting, oil marketers have called for liberalisation of the downstream sector, where other players with licences will be allowed to import more PMS, or petrol, into the country. National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, made his stance known while appearing as a guest on Channels Television’s The Morning Brief on Tuesday.

According to him, healthy competition in the downstream sector will further protect the country from petrol price shocks following the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, which has affected the importation of petrol into the country.

The crisis in the Middle East has seen petrol rise above N1,200 per litre locally. He argued that market liberalisation will create healthy competition among players and eventually lead to product affordability.

He said, “We do not want to recommend a total dependence on getting petroleum products from foreign countries. Importation should not be a permanent thing.

“Our position is that since we have a local refinery, such as the Dangote Refinery, which has helped advance the economy, there is still clearly a need to bring in additional product sources. This will help liberalise the market and ensure that it is competitive.

“The fact that we are depending on the Dangote Refinery today is a great pointer to where we can go. While we think that refining will increase in the country, temporarily, we should also allow imports to come in because that will help us to be able to compete favourably”.

Gillis-Harry faulted the recent position of the World Bank, which advised Nigeria to further deepen fuel importation.

In its April 2026 Nigeria Development Update, the World Bank dished out a clear set of policy actions centred on removing supply-side constraints, warning that without decisive intervention, inflationary pressures could intensify despite recent moderation.

The report identified restricted competition in the downstream petroleum sector and trade barriers on critical imports as key drivers of cost escalation across the economy. It recommended reinstating petrol import licences to reintroduce competition in the PMS market, where pricing pressures have intensified following the suspension of import permits earlier in the year.

According to the report, the absence of competitive supply has contributed to a situation where domestic petrol prices have risen above import parity levels.

As of March 2026, PMS prices stood at about N1,275 per litre locally, compared to an estimated import parity price of around N1,122 per litre, implying a cost differential of roughly 12 per cent.

“I do not accept everything that the World Bank advises. We have enough intellectuals in this country. We have very great financial minds and economists who can give Nigeria the direction we can drive. Not that we are an island, but most of these advices are tinted, in my own opinion,” the PETROAN Chair said.

Gillis-Harry faulted popular claims that the country risks falling prey to substandard imported products.

“This is not correct, although I won’t say that imported is better than locally refined products.

“Rather, I will say that imported products will go through the necessary check processes of the regulator to ensure that the quality is better. So, there will be no time that substandard products will be allowed into the system.

“Yes, there were times we suffered those kinds of challenges, but they are not permanent. I believe that NMDPRA has always risen to the occasion to make sure that those products are taken out of circulation or repaired immediately to meet up to the standard.

“PETROAN members do import. We also have receptacles for that huge quantity of refined products. For us, buying from Dangote is good, but having some alternatives is also helpful.

“Our members cut across all the stakeholders, whether major depot marketers or others. So, we import when the opportunity comes for those who have been given licences. And they won’t import substandard products. They must import what will be acceptable,” he noted.

He emphasised the importance of a liberalised downstream sector, adding that product affordability is key.

“We don’t want to depend on importation. We also want to support the local refinery, which is the Dangote Refinery. But while we are doing that, to ensure we don’t have difficulty in supplies, liberalisation will do a lot of good for us.

“If you have five suppliers, there will be competition and products will be affordable. Affordability is a good thing for Nigerians. Importation should not stop us from mounting pressure on NNPC to make our local refineries roar back to life. And we should also encourage more refiners like BUA and Azika so we can have multiple sources of products.

“We celebrate Dangote Refinery. We are so proud of Dangote Refinery. We are comfortable with him, but while we are comfortable with him, we should also think about the future. Liberalisation will be the focus to guarantee affordability,” he said.

Meanwhile, the regulator highlighted progress in refining projects, noting that the Waltersmith Refinery’s second train has commenced the introduction of hydrocarbons, signalling incremental expansion of Nigeria’s refining capacity.

The combined impact of the Dangote refinery’s operations and modular refinery expansions could significantly reduce Nigeria’s long-term dependence on imported fuel.

The March data reinforces the complexity of Nigeria’s downstream transition, where increased domestic refining capacity is beginning to reshape supply patterns, even as imports remain a critical buffer to ensure nationwide fuel availability.