The political landscape in Niger State is shifting dramatically as the All Progressives Congress (APC) officially scrapped its long-standing zoning arrangement for the governorship, opening the door for a wider contest in the 2027 elections.
The party, through a statement dated 3 April 2026, signed by State Publicity Secretary, Musa D. Sarkinkaji, stated that the system is a political convention as neither the party’s constitution nor Nigeria’s Constitution recognises zoning as binding.
“Zoning is a political arrangement, not a constitutional provision. All qualified aspirants from any zone are free to contest, ” he said.
For over 26 years, zoning had guided the rotation of power among Niger’s three senatorial districts, creating predictability and a semblance of inclusiveness.
But critics say it also bred mediocrity, allowing leadership to be determined by geography rather than competence.
The APC decision was welcomed by some as a long-overdue step toward merit-based leadership.
Party insiders, however, warn that it could also intensify competition and strain relationships within its fold.
Musa–Bago Relationship Under Scrutiny
The perceived tension between Governor Mohammed Umaru Bago and Senator Mohammed Sani Musa (313) has drawn significant attention following Musa’s April 1, 2026 comments at the flag-off of a scholarship programme in Bosso area of the state, hinting he might have contested the governorship if not for zoning.
Posters portraying Musa as a gubernatorial aspirant soon surfaced across the state, feeding further political tension.
Political insiders suggest the remarks were triggered by perceived pressure from the governor, particularly over his alleged support for his long-time ally, Barrister Bello Bawa Bwari (BBB), also from Niger East for the same senatorial seat Musa currently holds.
Analysts say this development has strained a relationship built over years of collaboration, as Musa and Bago had previously teamed up during the 2023 APC governorship primaries and election, a partnership that helped Bago secure victory.
However, in a statement issued by his media office on 4 April 2026, Musa categorically denied any gubernatorial ambition, emphasizing his legislative duties and respect for the governor,
“Distinguished Senator Mohammed Sani Musa (313) has consistently and publicly stated that he is not a gubernatorial aspirant.
“The Distinguished Senator holds the office of the Governor in high regard, and recognizes His Excellency Mohammed Umaru Bago as a leader, brother, and partner in progress in the #NewNiger project.
“The Distinguished Senator remains focused on his legislative responsibilities and his mandate to effectively represent the people of Niger East Senatorial District at the National Assembly.”
The Media office further maintained that,” the posters and narratives suggesting otherwise did not come from us and clearly out to mislead the public.”
Party sources and analysts say Musa’s denial may have been influenced by pressure from party stakeholders and community elders, who sought to prevent escalation and maintain unity ahead of the 2027 elections.
Governor’s Alleged Backing of BBB
Sources within the party say that instead of supporting Musa, Governor Bago allegedly appears to favour his long-time ally, Barrister Bello Bawa Bwari (BBB) who both hail from Niger East zone for the senatorial seat in the forthcoming general election, a move said to have deepened the strain between the two leaders.
Party insiders confirm that this perceived support for BBB in the Niger East political space created unease, causing tension in the previously cooperative alliance between the two top political figures.
Analysts believe Musa’s subsequent denial may have been prompted by pressure from party stakeholders and community elders seeking to prevent further escalation.
Party insiders also say the alleged support for Bwari created unease, contributing to the strain between the two leaders.
Abolition of Zoning Changes Political Equation
Historically, zoning in Niger State started with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in 1999, introducing a rotation among the three senatorial districts.
Under PDP, the late Abdulkadir Abdullahi Kure (Niger South) governed from 1999 to 2007, followed by Dr. Mu’azu Babangida Aliyu (Niger East) from 2007 to 2015.
When APC took power in 2015, Abubakar Sani Bello from Niger North served two terms until 2023. Governor Bago, from Niger South, assumed office in 2023.
This means PDP spent 16 years under zoning, while APC has governed for 11 years following the same formula.
Critics argue that zoning prioritized rotation over performance, preventing the state from benefiting from the best leadership.
Impact on Niger East and Musa
The abolition of zoning by APC has a direct impact on Niger East, the zone from which Senator Mohammed Sani Musa hails.
Under the old formula, power would have rotated to Niger East after Governor Bago completed his second term in 2031, potentially positioning Musa as a natural contender for the governorship.
But with zoning scrapped, the rotation is no longer guaranteed, opening the race to aspirants from all zones and altering the political calculations for leaders from Niger East.
Voices from the Party
In an interview with DAILY POST, an APC chieftain, Jonathan Vatsa a former Publicity Secretary of the party, argued that the long-standing zoning formula has “imprisoned and enslaved the state for over 26 years as it promotes mediocrity instead of producing the best to lead the state”.
He added that those behind the arrangement had caged the people to favour the minority who could not win elections, insisting that removing the zoning formula is a welcome development for Niger State.
“It is only Niger State in the North Central that operates zoning.
“Look at Benue and Kogi states; they don’t do it. This move is long overdue ,” he said.
Vatsa, a former Commissioner for Information and Culture, urged both Bago and Musa to reconcile, noting their long history of collaboration.
I don’t really know what is happening between them. They have come a long way. If they allow differences to divide them, people will mock and laugh at them,” he said.
He added: “When two elephants fight, it is the ground that suffers,” cautioning party members against taking sides.
April Comment Sparks Speculation
Observers say the timing of Musa’s outburst contributed to heightened speculation around his political intentions.
Analysts caution that the political stakes for Niger East have never been higher, given the potential reshuffling caused by the end of zoning.
The APC’s decision has created a new political environment where competence, alliances, and grassroots support will play a stronger role than geographic rotation.
Suleja Emirate First Agenda Raises Concerns
The governor received leaders of the Suleja Emirate First Agenda group at the Niger State Liaison Office in Abuja on 25 March 2026, where he listened to their concerns and advocated a review of the zoning formula after the 2027 general elections.
The group, composed of 67 organizations from Suleja, Gurara, and Tafa LGAs, argued that their zone has been politically marginalized since 1979–1983, when it produced Alhaji Awwal Ibrahim as governor, now the Emir of Suleja.
They called for equitable political inclusion and voiced concerns over long-term exclusion from power.
Responding, Governor Bago stressed the importance of fairness and inclusiveness, urging the people to be patient while emphasizing that leaders must be held accountable for their performance.
In a Hausa-language video circulating after the meeting, the governor told the constituents:
“It’s a must for Sani Musa to serve you well. If he does not serve you well, we will change him. But if he does well, we will leave him alone.”
This statement reinforced expectations for performance while signaling that continued support depends on results, adding context to Musa’s political position in Niger East.
Political Analysis and Implications
Insiders say internal party management will be crucial to prevent open conflicts and maintain unity.
Observers also warn that the fallout between Musa and Bago, if not managed, could dominate headlines more than the 2027 elections themselves.
Despite these tensions, Musa remains committed to his legislative duties and has publicly emphasized respect for party structures.
The end of zoning has intensified discussion on the balance between merit, regional representation, and political loyalty.
For APC aspirants across all zones, the abolition signals both opportunity and uncertainty.
The coming months are expected to test the ability of party leaders to manage ambitions, perceptions, and expectations.
Political analysts predict that the APC governorship contest in 2027 will be one of the most competitive in Niger’s recent history.
Grassroots advocacy, historical grievances, and personal alliances will all shape the narrative leading to the polls.
As the state prepares for 2027, the interplay between historical rotation, local demands, and emerging ambitions will define political strategies.
The collapse of zoning is seen by some as a chance to correct long-standing inequities in leadership selection.
At the same time, it has exposed personal and political fault lines within the ruling party.
For Niger East, the stakes are particularly high given the governor’s alleged backing of BBB and Musa’s prominence.
Observers say managing these dynamics carefully will be critical for APC unity and electoral success.
With all the forces at play, Niger State’s political stage is set for a tense, high-stakes contest that will capture national attention.
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