Nigeria’s largest banks delivered a mixed but ultimately reassuring set of financial results in 2025, with balance sheet expansion and revenue growth offset by a sharp, policy-driven hit to profitability.

According to the 2025 audited financial statement for the period ended 31 December, tier-one lenders’ gross earnings rose broadly, with the total amount collectively rising 7.69 per cent to N18.2tn from N16.9tn in the same period of 2024.

This growth was led by Access Holdings to N5.52tn in 2025 from N4.87tn reported in 2024, followed by Zenith Bank rising to N4.07tn from N3.82tn, First HoldCo with N3.21tn from N3.37tn, UBA with N2.97tn from N3.1tn, and GTCO, which saw its gross revenue rise to N2.11tn in 2025 from N2.15tn in 2024, confirming that core banking activity remains strong despite macro pressures.

During the period, interest income calculated using the effective interest rate expanded sharply for most banks. Zenith nearly doubled to N2.72tn, while GTCO jumped to N1.32tn, highlighting the benefit of Nigeria’s high-yield environment.

At the same time, non-interest income continues to deepen, with e-banking revenues collectively rising to N685.5bn from N628.4bn across the board, underscoring the growing importance of digital channels.

More importantly, balance sheets strengthened significantly. Access HoldCo’s total assets surged to N51.5tn from N41.4tn, while UBA and Zenith crossed N33.7tn and N31.4tn, respectively. Shareholders’ funds also expanded across all banks, reflecting the post-recapitalisation exercise, which has boosted capital buffers and improved loss-absorption capacity.

This capital build-up is central to the story. Nigerian banks raised a total of N4.65tn in fresh capital over a two-year recapitalisation drive, with 33 lenders meeting revised minimum requirements set by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

The CBN governor, Olayemi Cardoso, said the exercise has strengthened the industry’s capacity to absorb shocks and support economic growth: “The recapitalisation programme has strengthened the capital base of Nigerian banks, reinforcing the resilience of the financial system and ensuring it is well-positioned to support economic growth and withstand domestic and external shocks.”

The CBN said all lenders remain fully operational, with no disruption to banking services recorded during the recapitalisation period, as authorities sought to avoid instability while tightening capital requirements.

The effort comes alongside a phased exit from regulatory forbearance introduced in previous years to cushion banks from economic headwinds.

However, the cost of that reset is visible in earnings.

In the full-year report of Nigeria’s biggest banks, First HoldCo’s profit after tax fell to N52bn in 2025 from N663bn in 2024, UBA fell to N404bn from N766bn, and GTCO also recorded a decline to N865bn from N1.01tn. In contrast, Zenith held steady at N1.04tn, while Access Bank grew its profit to N743bn.

The divergence reflects elevated loan loss provisions, as banks unwind regulatory forbearance and reclassify previously shielded loans. This is less about fresh deterioration and more about recognising legacy risks.

That explains the expected pause in dividends for shareholders in their 2025 full-year financials, as UBA’s full-year 2025 results showed loan loss provisions of N331bn on its books. First HoldCo followed with impairments rising to N710bn from N371bn, while Access Holdings’ charge for impairment on loans and advances to customers jumped 209 per cent to N287.3bn.

However, UBA and First HoldCo have assured the investing public that this pause in dividends was impacted by prudent and forward-looking risk management decisions, a strategic clean-up exercise aimed at strengthening the group’s balance sheet and restoring confidence.

Investors remain positive as market data shows NGX banking stocks rally at the close of trading on 4 May 2026, by 0.36 per cent, hitting 2,290.78 points.

Market data showed the All-Share Index increased by 0.36 per cent to 243,158.97 points, pulling the year-to-date return down to +56.26 per cent, and market breadth remained firmly positive, as it strengthened to 1.69x from 1.26x, indicating strong buying interest across counters, with 54 stocks closing in the green.

Trading data shows that banking stocks were the primary drivers of the market rise; these stocks include GTCO, rising by 3.70 per cent, and Stanbic IBTC, rising 9.70 per cent, among others, after the trading hours.

Dangote Petroleum Refinery exported an estimated 57 million barrels of jet fuel between April 2024 and April 2026, with shipments fluctuating sharply month-to-month but rising to a peak of about 160,000 barrels per day in the latest data.

An analysis of export volumes from energy intelligence platform Kpler shows that the refinery’s monthly shipments, measured in thousand barrels per day, varied widely across the 25-month period, reflecting changing demand patterns and production capacity across Africa, Europe and the Americas.

Findings from the data showed that exports began at relatively low levels in early 2024 when the refinery commenced operations before gaining momentum.

In April 2024, exports stood at about 20,000bpd, rising sharply to around 70,000bpd in May before easing to about 50,000bpd in June. Shipments increased again to approximately 65,000bpd in July, then moderated to around 55,000bpd in August.

Exports declined further to about 35,000bpd in September before recovering to roughly 45,000bpd in October. According to the data by Kpler, volumes strengthened towards year-end, reaching about 55,000bpd in November and around 65,000bpd in December 2024.

In January 2025, exports were estimated at about 50,000bpd, followed by a sharp jump to around 115,000bpd in February and about 110,000bpd in March, marking the first major surge in shipments.

Volumes dropped to roughly 70,000bpd in April 2025, then climbed again to around 100,000bpd in May, before easing to about 65,000bpd in June.

A significant spike was recorded in July 2025, when exports rose to approximately 145,000bpd, one of the highest levels in the period under review. This was followed by a decline to around 75,000bpd in August, before rising again to about 95,000bpd in September.

Exports hovered around 75,000bpd in October, increased slightly to about 80,000bpd in November, and remained at roughly 80,000bpd in December 2025.

In 2026, exports dipped to around 55,000bpd in January, then rose to about 70,000bpd in February and approximately 95,000bpd in March.

However, the US-Iran war changed the narrative, and the highest export figure was recorded in April 2026, as shipments surged to an average of 160,000 barrels a day.

To estimate total barrels exported, each month’s average figures were multiplied by the number of days in that month.

For instance, a month with 100,000bpd translates to roughly three million barrels over 30 days. Applying this method across all months and summing the totals produces a cumulative estimate of about 57 million barrels of jet fuel exported since 2024.

Further breakdown of the data shows that Africa accounted for the largest share, receiving an estimated 23 million barrels over the period. Europe followed with about 17 million barrels, while the Americas accounted for roughly 11 million barrels. Other destinations received a marginal two million barrels.

Africa’s dominance reflecting strong regional demand and proximity advantages was obvious, while Europe’s growing share, particularly from mid-2025, indicates expanding access to more competitive international markets, especially with the crisis in the Middle East.

The cumulative export volume points to the scale of the Dangote refinery’s operations within a short timeframe, positioning it as a key supplier in both regional and international aviation fuel markets.

The figures, derived from chart-based estimates by Kpler, show the ability of the refinery to supply fuel locally and internationally.

According to Oilprice.com, domestic jet fuel demand stands at just 13,000bpd, yet Dangote exported around 100,000 bpd in March. Europe emerged as a key destination, absorbing roughly half of these volumes.

In early April alone, 1.6 million barrels of jet fuel were loaded for Europe, with France, Spain and the UK among the key buyers.

It was projected that the Dangote Group may feel tempted to redirect flows from lower-margin African markets toward Europe.

“In practice, Dangote could shift as much as an additional 40,000 bpd of jet exports away from regional buyers to Europe without straining domestic supply,” the report said.

In Nigeria, airlines threatened to shut down over high JetA-1 prices. But an official of the Dangote Group said the company could not subsidise aviation fuel, having subsidised petrol and diesel.

Amid the pricing row between airlines and fuel marketers, the Dangote refinery said it continued to expand its footprint in the international aviation fuel market by exporting over a billion litres between March and April.

Industry data, according to the refinery, indicated that the facility exported approximately 876,000 metric tonnes of jet fuel to Europe within the period under review, about 456,000 tonnes in March and an additional 420,000 tonnes by 20 April.

These export volumes, it said, underscored its growing capacity and improved logistics, further reinforcing Nigeria’s emerging role in the global downstream oil and gas market, even as it strengthens domestic energy security.

Nigeria could generate more than $400bn in additional income by 2040 if the country increases investments in adolescent girls through education, healthcare, economic opportunities, and stronger legal protections, a new World Bank report has stated.

The report, titled “Pathways to Prosperity for Adolescent Girls in Nigeria,” stated, “Estimates suggest that investing in adolescent girls in Nigeria between now and 2040 could generate more than $400bn in additional income for a cost of around $37bn.”

The World Bank said Nigeria has significant untapped economic potential despite insecurity, poverty, and regional inequalities, noting that targeted interventions for girls could boost productivity and economic growth.

It added that similar investments across Africa could generate more than $2.4tn in additional income at an estimated cost of about $200bn.

According to the report, Nigeria’s national averages mask deep disparities between the northern and southern regions, with girls in the North West and North East facing worse outcomes due to insecurity, insurgency, and structural disadvantages.

The report stated that 45.7 per cent of girls aged 15 to 19 are currently in school, below the African average of 51.5 per cent, while 30.6 per cent are economically engaged, above the continental average of 22.3 per cent.

It added that 80.8 per cent of girls aged 15 to 19 are unmarried and without children, compared to the African average of 73.4 per cent, although early marriage and childbearing remain widespread among poor and rural communities.

The report further disclosed that Nigeria scored 51.1 out of 100 on the World Bank’s Women, Business and the Law 2026 legal frameworks index, lower than the Sub-Saharan African average of 59.6. Nigeria also scored 49 out of 100 on supportive legal frameworks.

On digital inclusion, the World Bank noted that only 12.3 per cent of adolescent girls use the internet compared to 18.1 per cent of boys, while smartphone ownership among girls stood at 36.6 per cent against 51.1 per cent among boys.

The report identified major regional disparities in girls’ welfare and opportunities. It stated that the “Grace pathway,” representing girls who are in school, not working, unmarried and without children, was highest in the South East at 62.4 per cent, South West at 50.4 per cent, and South South at 45.4 per cent, but dropped sharply to 22.8 per cent in the North East.

According to the report, vulnerable pathways involving girls who are out of school, unemployed, married, or with children were more prevalent in northern Nigeria, with vulnerability levels standing at 55.1 per cent in the North West, 46.4 per cent in the North East, and 42.2 per cent in the North Central. In comparison, the South East recorded 21.9 per cent while the South West had 22.5 per cent.

The World Bank said girls in Nigeria face significant gender-related barriers, noting that they are more than twice as likely as boys to be out of school and unemployed. It stated that 19.2 per cent of girls are either married or have children compared to only 0.6 per cent of boys.

The report also highlighted a sharp rural-urban divide, showing that only 32.4 per cent of rural girls are in school compared to 59.2 per cent of urban girls.

It added that the proportion of girls who are married or have children in rural areas is more than four times higher than in urban areas, at 30.9 per cent and 6.9 per cent respectively.

On household income disparities, the report disclosed that only 15.9 per cent of girls from the poorest households are in school compared to 62.2 per cent among girls from the wealthiest homes.

It added that 38.6 per cent of the poorest girls are either married or have children, compared to 3.6 per cent among the wealthiest. The report stated, “These patterns reveal how gender, geography, and poverty interact to create multiple, reinforcing barriers for many adolescent girls in Nigeria.”

To address the gaps, the World Bank recommended targeted education and healthcare interventions in northern and rural areas, improved access to sexual and reproductive health education, lower schooling costs, expanded digital financial services, and stronger legal protections for women and girls.

The report noted that many of the interventions are already being supported through the Adolescent Girls Initiative for Learning and Empowerment programme, a $1.2bn initiative covering 18 northern states and five states across the South West, South East, and South South.

According to the World Bank, evidence from Nigeria and other African countries showed that interventions such as scholarships, girls’ clubs, conditional cash transfers, vocational training, digital health applications, and community engagement programmes have improved school enrollment, delayed child marriage, and increased economic participation among girls.