Senate lowers oil benchmark, approves N54.46tn budget
The Senate on Tuesday approved a revised Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper for 2026–2028, slashing Nigeria’s crude oil benchmark to $60 per barrel for 2026 and endorsing a N54.46tn federal spending framework designed to shield the economy from global uncertainties.
The upper chamber adopted the recommendations of its Committee on Finance following the presentation of the report by the committee’s chairman, Senator Sani Musa, at plenary presided over by Senate President Godswill Akpabio.
The approval comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East, persistent volatility in the global energy market, and concerns over the vulnerability of oil-dependent economies such as Nigeria to external shocks.
In a key adjustment, the Senate reduced the crude oil benchmark earlier proposed at $64.85 for 2026, $64.30 for 2027, and $65.50 for 2028 to $60, $65, and $70 per barrel for the respective years. The committee explained that the downward review was informed by global uncertainties and the sensitivity of oil prices to geopolitical developments.
Despite the conservative oil price outlook, lawmakers sustained domestic crude oil production projections at 1.84 million barrels per day for 2026, 1.88 million barrels per day for 2027, and 1.92 million barrels per day for 2028, expressing confidence in ongoing sectoral reforms and efforts to stabilise output.
On macroeconomic assumptions, the Senate endorsed projected exchange rates of N1,512 to the dollar in 2026, N1,432.15 in 2027, and N1,383.18 in 2028, aligning with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s outlook and its drive to stabilise the naira through coordinated fiscal and monetary policies.
Inflation is projected to ease gradually over the medium term, moderating to 16.5 per cent in 2026, 13 per cent in 2027, and nine per cent in 2028. The committee anchored the projections on sustained monetary tightening and reforms aimed at addressing structural drivers of inflation.
Similarly, the Senate sustained real GDP growth projections of 4.68 per cent for 2026, 5.96 per cent for 2027, and 7.9 per cent for 2028, citing the expected impact of economic reforms, improved revenue mobilisation, and gains from recently enacted tax reforms expected to take firmer effect from 2026.
A major plank of the report was the emphasis on the effective implementation of newly enacted Tax Acts as critical tools for economic growth and fiscal sustainability.
In this regard, the committee recommended the adoption of a National Scanning Policy within the National Single Window of the Nigeria Revenue Service, in collaboration with relevant agencies, to enhance revenue assurance, reduce leakages, improve trade facilitation, strengthen transparency, and bolster national security.
On fiscal operations, the Senate approved a total proposed expenditure of N54.46tn for the 2026 financial year.
Of this amount, Federal Government retained revenue is estimated at N34.33tn, while new borrowings—both domestic and foreign—are projected at N17.88tn. Debt service obligations were put at N15.52tn.
The framework also provides N1.376tn for pensions, gratuities, and retirees’ benefits, while the fiscal deficit is pegged at N20.13tn.
Capital expenditure, exclusive of transfers, was sustained at N20.131tn, alongside statutory transfers of N3.152tn and a Sinking Fund provision of N388.54bn.
Total recurrent (non-debt) expenditure was approved at N15.265tn, while special intervention funds for recurrent and capital spending were fixed at N200bn and N14bn, respectively.
In concluding remarks, the committee expressed appreciation to the Senate for what it described as its commitment to a critical national assignment, expressing optimism that faithful implementation of the approved framework would help stabilise the economy and promote sustainable growth.
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