The Nigerian Exchange closed the first trading session of the week on a positive note, with investors gaining N257bn as buying interest in select stocks lifted key market indices.

At the close of trading, total market capitalisation rose to N97.2tn, reflecting renewed optimism despite a slowdown in trading activities. The benchmark NGX All-Share Index advanced by 401.69 points, or 0.26 per cent, to settle at 152,459.07 points, extending the market’s upward trend. The performance translated to a one-week gain of 2.02 per cent, a four-week gain of 6.16 per cent and a year-to-date return of 48.12 per cent.

Trading data showed that a total of 451.48 million shares valued at N13.00bn were exchanged in 33,290 deals. Compared with the previous trading day, market turnover declined by 22 per cent and volume dropped by 49 per cent, although the number of deals improved by 30 per cent, indicating sustained investor participation.

Market breadth closed positive, as 129 listed equities participated in trading, with thirty-four gainers outweighing twenty losers. Aluminium Extrusion Industries topped the gainers’ chart after its share price appreciated by 9.72 per cent to close at N13.55 per share. International Energy Insurance followed with a gain of 9.69 per cent, while MeCure Industries rose by 9.64 per cent and Royal Exchange added 9.60 per cent.

On the losers’ side, Custodian and Allied Insurance led the decline with a 10.00 per cent drop to close at N35.10 per share. Associated Bus Company also shed 10.00 per cent, while Prestige Assurance Company fell by 7.41 per cent and Guinea Insurance declined by 7.38 per cent.

Activity on the trading floor was driven by Tantalizers, which recorded the highest volume with 50.18 million shares exchanged. First HoldCo followed with 32.62 million shares, while Access Holdings traded 27.32 million shares, and Custodian and Allied Insurance recorded 22.10 million shares.

In terms of sectoral performance, most indices closed in positive territory. The Top 30 Index gained 0.27 per cent, the Industrial Index rose by 0.91 per cent, the Consumer Goods Index advanced by 0.50 per cent and the Main Board Index increased by 0.39 per cent. The Pension Index edged up by 0.01 per cent, while the Oil and Gas Index closed flat for the session.

Overall, analysts say the market’s positive close reflects continued selective buying by investors, particularly in industrial, consumer and insurance stocks, as sentiment remains upbeat in the equities market.

Despite an improvement in crude oil production, the Federal Government earned 63.49 per cent less than its projected oil revenue target in the first half of 2025, according to the second quarter Budget Performance Report released by the Budget Office on Monday.

The report showed that gross oil revenue of N9.32tn was recorded between January and June 2025, far below the N25.52tn pro-rated budget projection for the period. This translated into a N16.20tn shortfall, underscoring the persistent fragility of Nigeria’s oil-dependent fiscal structure.

Data from the report also indicated that average crude oil production stood at 1.68 million barrels per day, below the budget benchmark of 2.12mbpd, with significant revenue implications for the Federation Account.

However, output improved marginally compared with earlier periods, rising by 0.08mbpd from the 1.6mbpd recorded in the first quarter of 2025 and by 0.27mbpd above the 1.41mbpd produced in the corresponding period of 2024.

Despite missing its revenue target, the half-year performance marked a notable improvement year-on-year, as oil revenue increased by N2.78tn, or 42.59 per cent, compared with the actual half-year earnings recorded in 2024.

The report read, “Gross oil revenue amounting to N9.32tn was collected in the first half of 2025 as against N25.52tn prorate budget projection for the period. This denotes a decrease of N16.20tn (63.49 per cent) from the 2025 half-year budget estimate. It, however, reflects an increase of N2.78tn (42.59 per cent) from the actual half-year gross oil revenue performance reported in 2024.”

Crude oil has remained Nigeria’s single most important source of foreign exchange and public revenue for over five decades, accounting for about 80–90 per cent of export earnings and more than half of government revenue in most fiscal years.

Earnings from crude oil exports largely determine the country’s foreign exchange inflows, the strength of the naira, and the volume of funds available for distribution to the federal, state, and local governments through the Federation Account Allocation Committee.

These revenues are highly sensitive to international oil prices, production volumes, exchange rates, and fiscal terms, making government income vulnerable to external shocks.

Despite its dominance, Nigeria’s reliance on oil has exposed the economy to repeated fiscal stress during periods of price crashes or production disruptions. Challenges such as crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, underinvestment, operational inefficiencies, and regulatory uncertainty have often constrained output and revenue performance, even when global oil prices are favourable.

A detailed breakdown of the figures revealed mixed outcomes across revenue lines. Concessional rentals surged to N24.82bn, exceeding the half-year projection of N2.06bn by N22.77bn (1,106.99 per cent), while miscellaneous oil revenue, including pipeline fees, rose to N29.73bn, beating its N11.72bn projection by N18.01bn (153.65 per cent).

In contrast, the major oil revenue streams significantly underperformed. Crude oil and gas sales generated N712.57bn, falling short of the N2.36tn target by N1.64tn (69.76 per cent). Petroleum Profit and Gas Taxes yielded N4.16tn, missing the projection of N15.69tn by N11.53tn (73.47 per cent).

Similarly, oil and gas royalties stood at N3.53tn, lower than the N6.86tn estimate by N3.33tn (48.54 per cent), while incidental oil revenue, including royalty recoveries and marginal field licences, came in at N438.90bn, undershooting its N591.76bn projection by N152.87bn (25.83 per cent).

The report also noted that gas flaring penalties and exchange gains, which had no half-year budget projections, contributed N267.25bn and N148.31bn, respectively, during the period under review.

According to the Budget Office, oil revenue performance in the second quarter of 2025 improved compared with 2024 levels, largely due to higher crude output and improved collection of petroleum profit tax and royalties. Non-oil revenues also posted gains, attributed mainly to inflationary pressures and increased economic activities.

On pricing, Nigeria’s crude averaged $74 per barrel in Q2 2025, representing a marginal decline of $0.98 per barrel (1.31 per cent) from Q1 2025 and a sharper drop of $10.76 per barrel (12.69 per cent) compared with the corresponding quarter of 2024. The figure was also $1 below the $75 per barrel benchmark set in the 2025 budget.

Although production improved from 1.6mbpd in Q1 2025 and 1.41mbpd in the same period of 2024, the report highlighted that Nigeria’s oil sector continues to face deep-seated challenges, including crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, weak security, underinvestment in infrastructure, regulatory uncertainty, and limited domestic refining capacity.

In the second quarter alone, gross oil revenue stood at N4.77tn, representing a N7.99tn (62.62 per cent) shortfall from the N12.76tn quarterly projection. Nonetheless, this was N1.59tn (33.33 per cent) higher than the N3.18tn recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024.

On the non-oil side, gross non-oil revenue of N4.46tn was recorded in Q2, reflecting an increase of N404.26bn (6.68 per cent) above estimates. After deductions, the net distributable revenue available to the three tiers of government stood at N9.85tn, representing a shortfall of N7.01tn (41.58 per cent).

The figures reinforce ongoing concerns about Nigeria’s fiscal vulnerability amid oil market volatility, production shortfalls, and structural weaknesses, despite reforms introduced under the Petroleum Industry Act.

The report added that Nigeria’s oil sector continues to grapple with deep-seated challenges, including persistent crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and inadequate security, which have contributed to production shortfalls and supply disruptions. It noted that underinvestment in modern technology and infrastructure, corruption and regulatory uncertainties, as well as the country’s heavy reliance on crude oil exports, have continued to expose public finances to market volatility.

Dangote Petroleum Refinery has announced the launch of a dedicated hotline for Nigerians to report any MRS Oil Nigeria Plc filling station selling Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) above the approved pump price of N739 per litre.

The firm also warned marketers against creating artificial scarcity, saying the refinery is supplying up to 50 million litres per day.

In a statement on Monday, the refinery said the initiative underscored its commitment to ensuring transparency, affordability, and consumer protection in the downstream petroleum market.

“The hotline number 0800123 5264 is now active nationwide, enabling consumers to promptly report violations and help maintain fair pricing across over 2,000 MRS stations. This measure follows the refinery’s recent commencement of nationwide PMS sales at N739 per litre—a strategic intervention aimed at stabilising fuel prices and easing the financial burden on Nigerians during the festive season,” the statement said.

The Dangote refinery emphasised its mission to deliver affordable, high-quality fuel while safeguarding national economic interests.

“We encourage Nigerians to avoid purchasing PMS at inflated prices when locally refined fuel is available at N739 per litre. Report any MRS station selling above this price by calling our hotline. Together, we can ensure that the benefits of this price reduction reach every consumer,” the statement read.

The refinery also reaffirmed its commitment to steady supply, backed by a guaranteed daily output of 50 million litres, and warned against attempts to create artificial scarcity or manipulate supply, urging regulatory authorities to remain vigilant and take decisive action against unpatriotic practices.

“By refining locally at scale, Dangote Refinery is reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imports, conserving foreign exchange, stabilising the naira, and strengthening energy security. This initiative represents a significant milestone in the country’s journey toward sustainable energy solutions and economic recovery,” it stated.

The refinery also issued a stern warning against attempts by unscrupulous operators to create artificial scarcity in response to the price reduction, calling on government agencies to act decisively.

“Any attempt to create artificial scarcity or manipulate supply to frustrate recent price reductions is unpatriotic and unacceptable. We urge regulatory authorities to remain vigilant and take firm action against such practices, especially during this critical festive period,” the statement added.