About 14.66 per cent of Nigeria’s crude oil production in 2025 was likely committed to servicing crude-backed loan facilities, based on estimates derived from disclosures in the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited’s 2024 financial statements and official production data.

An analysis by The PUNCH shows that four major crude-secured arrangements — Project Gazelle, Project Yield, Project Leopard, and Eagle Export Funding — are backed by a combined 213,000 barrels of crude oil per day.

If this allocation remained unchanged throughout 2025, the total volume committed to debt servicing would amount to 77.75 million barrels for the year, calculated by multiplying 213,000 barrels per day by 365 days.

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission indicate that Nigeria produced 530.41 million barrels of crude oil between January and December 2025.

The 77.75 million barrels tied to crude-for-loan arrangements therefore represent 14.66 per cent of total annual production. Using the 2025 average Bonny Light price of $72.08 per barrel, the 77.75 million barrels translate to about $5.60bn.

Converted at the official exchange rate of N1,492 to the dollar, the crude potentially deployed to service the loans is valued at approximately N8.36tn. This implies that out of the estimated gross crude oil earnings for 2025, a sizeable portion of output by volume was effectively earmarked for debt servicing before revenues could fully accrue to government coffers.

The obligations span multiple forward-sale and project-financing arrangements expected to be serviced through substantial crude oil and gas deliveries. These commitments have become a central pillar of NNPC’s funding framework following years of fiscal strain, volatile production, and declining upstream investment.

Several of the facilities were used to refinance legacy debts, fund refinery rehabilitation, support cash flow, and meet government revenue obligations.

One of the major exposures is linked to the Eagle Export Funding arrangement. Although the 2024 financial statement notes that “at least 1.8 million barrels” must be delivered per cycle, earlier reporting by The PUNCH indicates that the facility comprises three separate loan tranches.

The first, a $935m loan secured in 2020 and backed by 30,000 barrels per day, was fully repaid by September 2023. A second tranche of $635m was also cleared within the same period. The only outstanding portion is the Project Eagle Export Funding Subsequent 2 Debt, a $900m facility obtained in 2023 and secured against 21,000 barrels per day.

Repayment was scheduled to commence in June 2024, with final maturity expected in 2028. As of December 2024, the outstanding balance stood at N1.1tn, making Eagle one of the company’s significant forward-sale exposures.

“The company had capital commitments of N1.1tn as at the year ended 31 December 2024 (31 December 2023: N1.2tn). This relates to the forward sale agreement with Eagle Export Funding Limited for the delivery of Crude Oil.

“Under the contract, Eagle Export Funding Limited will make an upfront payment to NEPL for crude in a Forward Sale Agreement. The payment received is required to be settled with the delivery of crude oil volumes, i.e., NEPL sells crude to Eagle Export Funding Limited based on a delivery schedule.

“Based on the agreement, at least 1,800,000 barrels of Crude oil must be nominated and scheduled by NEPL (and delivered at the relevant delivery terminal to Eagle Export Limited in every delivery period commencing on 28 August 2020,” the NNPC financial statement read.

Another significant obligation arises from the incremental gas-supply financing arrangement with Nigeria LNG Limited. Under the agreement, NLNG provided upfront funding of N772bn for gas supplies to be delivered over time.

By the end of 2024, gas worth N535bn had been drawn and N312bn recovered by NLNG, leaving N460bn yet to be supplied. A financing charge of N12bn also accrued during the period, bringing the total outstanding balance to N472bn.

The refinery rehabilitation programme accounts for some of the largest crude-secured debt commitments. Project Yield, the financing structure backing the Port Harcourt Refinery upgrade, had an outstanding drawdown of N1.4tn at the close of 2024.

The agreement requires NNPC to deliver refined-product-equivalent volumes of 67,000 barrels per day, with repayment scheduled to begin in June 2025 after a two-and-a-half-year moratorium.

“This is a 7-year N1.5tn PxF loan obtained in October 2022 for general corporate purposes with the ultimate use being the execution of the EPC Contract between PHRC and Tecnimont for the rehabilitation of Port Harcourt Refinery.

“It is secured with a forward sale of refined product equivalent of 67kbpd of crude oil. As of 31 December 2024, the amount drawn is N1.4tn with principal repayment to commence in June 2025 after a moratorium period of two years and 6 months. Therefore, loan commitment as of 31 December 2024 is N1.4tn,” the financial statement read.

Similarly, Project Leopard, another crude-backed forward-sale facility, carried an outstanding balance of N1.3tn. The five-year financing agreement commits the company to deliver 35,000 barrels of crude oil per day, with repayments expected to begin in mid-2025 after a six-month moratorium.

The largest exposure relates to Project Gazelle, a substantial crude-for-cash arrangement used to finance advance tax and royalty payments on Production Sharing Contract assets.

NNPC had drawn N4.9tn out of the total N5.1tn facility by December 2024. Crude valued at N991bn had been delivered, leaving an outstanding N3.8tn. The agreement requires sustained deliveries of 90,000 barrels per day until the liability is fully extinguished.

Taken together, the company’s major crude-for-loan facilities — Eagle Export Funding (21,000 bpd), Project Yield (67,000 bpd), Project Leopard (35,000 bpd) and Project Gazelle (90,000 bpd) — represent a combined commitment of 213,000 barrels per day, in addition to separate gas-delivery obligations under the NLNG arrangement.

Although the N8.36tn estimate reflects the gross market value of crude tied to loan servicing, actual fiscal receipts depend on pricing formulas, lifting schedules, repayment structures and other contractual terms.

The PUNCH earlier reported that Nigeria earned an average of N55.5tn from crude oil sales in 2025, compared to N50.88tn in 2024. NUPRC data show that Nigeria produced 530.41 million barrels of crude oil between January and December 2025, with output fluctuating during the year amid outages, operational disruptions and gradual recovery in some fields.

Industry analysts noted that the revenue figure represents gross earnings and does not account for production costs, joint venture cash calls, production-sharing contract cost recovery, oil theft, domestic supply obligations, or deferred liftings.

Nonetheless, the analysis highlights the scale of crude inflows generated during the year and underscores the importance of output stability and price performance to Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has presided over the formal handover of the OLO Oilfield Host Community Development Trust from TotalEnergies to Aradel Holdings, in what officials described as a major milestone in the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act and the protection of host community interests during operator transitions.

The ceremony, held at the commission’s headquarters in Abuja, brought together senior officials of the regulator, executives of both companies, and representatives of the OLO host communities to formally complete the transfer of settlor responsibilities under the trust.

A statement issued by the NUPRC Head, Media and Strategic Communication, Eniola Akinkuotu, on Friday said the move is expected to ensure continuity in community development programmes despite the change in operator of the Olo/Olo West marginal field.

The OLO Host Community Development Trust was established in line with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act, which mandates operators to contribute three per cent of their previous year’s operating expenditure to support sustainable development in host communities.

Between 2023 and 2025, the trust has enabled the completion of more than 100 projects covering water supply, electricity, road construction, education, and healthcare. About 40 additional projects are currently ongoing, with over 25,000 residents across the host communities said to have benefited directly from the interventions.

TotalEnergies previously operated the Olo/Olo West marginal field within the former OML 58 in the Eastern Niger Delta before its acquisition by Aradel Holdings, making the transfer of responsibilities under the trust a statutory and operational requirement.

The oil major confirmed that all obligations up to the date of transfer had been fully met and that there were no outstanding liabilities. Aradel has now formally assumed full responsibility following the Commission’s regulatory consent.

Speaking at the ceremony, the Commission Chief Executive of the NUPRC, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, who was represented by the Executive Commissioner, Health, Safety, Environment and Community, Capt John Tonlagha, said the transition demonstrates the effectiveness of the PIA framework in safeguarding host community interests.

He said the trust’s structure and governance have been preserved, ensuring that ongoing projects will continue without disruption.

“The Olo Oilfield Host Community Development Trust remains intact. Its governance structure has been preserved, and its statutory funding obligations are transitioning seamlessly to the new settlor, exactly as envisioned by the Petroleum Industry Act,” Tonlagha said.

He added, “The commission will continue to provide firm and consistent oversight to ensure full compliance with the provisions of the Act for the benefit of both the host communities and the industry. This is a critical component of building trust and stability in Nigeria’s upstream sector.”

In his remarks, the General Manager, Community Affairs, Projects and Development at TotalEnergies, Dornu Kogam, urged the new operator to sustain the transparent and inclusive engagement model that had guided the implementation of projects.

“We encourage Aradel Holdings to maintain the same transparent, community-centred approach. The success recorded so far is the result of sustained dialogue, mutual respect, and shared development goals,” he said.

Responding, the Community Affairs Manager of Aradel Holdings, Blessyn Okpowo, assured stakeholders of the company’s commitment to fulfilling its obligations and sustaining the development momentum.

“We want to assure the host communities and the Commission that, in line with the Petroleum Industry Act, we will honour all commitments and duties required of the settlor. We also intend to work very smoothly and continue the engagement model established by TotalEnergies,” he said.

The Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the OLO Host Community Development Trust, Wale Godwin, commended the progress recorded so far, noting that 118 projects had already been delivered out of 160 planned.

He also praised the regulator’s oversight role, particularly its approval of the Community Development Plan before the commencement of projects.

“We appreciate the commission for ensuring proper regulatory guidance and approval processes. This has strengthened transparency and confidence among stakeholders and ensured that projects are aligned with the real needs of the communities,” he said.

The host community framework under the Petroleum Industry Act is widely regarded as one of the most significant reforms in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector. It was introduced to address longstanding grievances in oil-producing communities over environmental degradation, poverty, and perceived neglect despite decades of resource extraction.

Under the law, operators are required to set up Host Community Development Trusts and contribute three per cent of their annual operating expenditure to fund sustainable development initiatives.

This model is designed to reduce conflicts, curb pipeline vandalism, and promote stability in the Niger Delta by ensuring that communities derive measurable benefits from oil operations.

The successful transition of the OLO trust signals growing confidence in the new regulatory regime and highlights the importance of continuity and accountability in community development amid asset divestments and acquisitions across Nigeria’s upstream sector.

MTN Nigeria said it invested N1tn in 2025 to expand fibre infrastructure, roll out additional base stations and strengthen network capacity nationwide, as the country’s biggest telco returned to profitability after a choking financial year marked by foreign exchange pressures and negative equity.

The capital expenditure, more than double the prior year’s spending, formed part of a broader recovery that saw the company post a profit after tax of N1.1tn for the year ended December 31, 2025. The rebound followed a difficult 2024 in which MTN suspended dividend payments and grappled with balance sheet strain.

Chief Executive Officer Dr Karl Toriola described 2025 as a defining year for the company, linking the improved earnings position to renewed long-term infrastructure investment.

“During the year, we invested N1tn in network expansion and modernisation, more than double the prior year’s capital expenditure. This investment translates to additional base stations, deeper fibre rollout, expanded capacity and improved network resilience across the country because sustaining critical digital infrastructure requires disciplined capital allocation and a deliberate long-term approach,” the executive said.

The telcos’ total subscriber base increased to 87.3 million, up 7.9 per cent, while active data subscribers rose to 53.2 million. Data traffic grew by 34 per cent during the year. These figures reflect sustained demand for digital services across the country and underscore the need for continued investment in network capacity and resilience.

“We are mindful that in a period of economic pressure, expectations from customers are heightened. When Nigerians purchase data or rely on our network for work, education, financial services or daily communication, they expect reliability, fairness and continuous improvement. That expectation is both legitimate and central to our responsibility, Toriola noted.

MTN’s service revenue rose 55.1 per cent to N5.2tn in 2025, while earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation more than doubled to N2.7tn. Earnings per share improved to N53.07 from a negative N19.05 a year earlier, reflecting the sharp turnaround in operational performance.

Chief Financial Officer Modupe Kadiri said the company’s financial recovery was built on deliberate balance sheet repair, disciplined capital allocation and reduced foreign exchange exposure.

“A year ago, MTN Nigeria was in negative equity. Today, we are declaring a N20 total dividend for the 2025 financial year,” Kadiri stated.

The board approved a final dividend of N15 per share, subject to shareholder approval at the annual general meeting, bringing the total dividend for the year to N20 per share, including an interim dividend of N5 already paid in the fourth quarter.

According to its report, MTN generated N1.2tn in free cash flow during the year and rebuilt shareholders’ equity to N548.7bn, with retained earnings standing at N400.4bn at year-end, signalling restored financial stability after the previous year’s market volatility.

Toriola said profitability would continue to underpin infrastructure expansion, noting that profit enables sustained reinvestment in network quality and broader coverage rather than serving as an end in itself.

“Profit, in our context, is not an end in itself. It is the mechanism that enables continued investment in network quality, broader coverage and enhanced customer experience. As Nigeria’s digital ecosystem continues to expand across fintech, small businesses, education and public services, resilient and future-ready telecommunications infrastructure remains foundational to national development,” he added.