Rising pump prices forced Nigerian consumers to cut petrol, diesel and cooking gas consumption during the first half of 2026 as higher energy costs squeezed household incomes and raised transportation and production costs.

An analysis of the H1 2026 Downstream Industry Analysis Report by the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria, obtained by The PUNCH, showed a clear relationship between rising fuel prices and weakening demand for the country’s three major petroleum products.

According to the report, the average retail price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) rose from N1,035 per litre in January to N1,051 in February, before climbing to N1,289 in March. It increased further to N1,533 in April and peaked at N1,596 in May before easing to N1,300 in June.

The price increases coincided with declining consumption. Average daily petrol consumption fell from about 60–61 million litres in January to around 58 million litres in February, dropped sharply to about 48 million litres in March, recovered slightly to roughly 51 million litres in April, declined to 46–47 million litres in May, and improved marginally to about 48 million litres in June after pump prices eased.

Diesel consumption also weakened as prices rose. Automotive Gas Oil sold for an average of N1,362 per litre in January, N1,420 in February and N1,648 in March. Prices surged to N2,475 in April, reached N3,277 in May and moderated to N2,900 in June.

Average diesel consumption stood at about 19.5 million litres per day in January, rose slightly to around 20 million litres in February, then declined to about 15.5–16 million litres in March. It recovered modestly to approximately 17.5 million litres in April before settling at about 16 million litres daily in May and June.

Liquefied Petroleum Gas also recorded weaker demand. Average LPG prices increased from N1,086 per kilogramme in January to N1,360 in February, N1,572 in March, N1,791 in April and N1,800 in May before easing to N1,661 in June.

Consumption moved in the opposite direction, falling from about 4.9–5.0 kilotonnes daily in January to roughly 4.3–4.4 kilotonnes in February. Demand briefly recovered to about 5.1–5.2 kilotonnes in March before declining steadily to around 4.2 kilotonnes in June.

MEMAN attributed the higher fuel prices to rising global crude oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Although crude prices eased in June, they remained above levels recorded at the beginning of the year.

The association said the figures showed that Nigerian consumers had become increasingly price-sensitive, with higher pump prices translating into lower consumption of petrol, diesel and cooking gas.

Meanwhile, MEMAN cautioned against relying solely on domestic refining for Nigeria’s fuel supply, warning that complementary imports would remain critical to guaranteeing energy security, promoting competition and preventing excessive market concentration.

The report stated, “The Nigerian downstream petroleum sector enters the second half of 2026 at a defining moment. The structural transition from an import-dependent market to one supported by significantly expanded domestic refining capacity has largely been achieved.

“The focus now shifts from increasing refining output to building a competitive, transparent, and resilient downstream market capable of sustaining long-term growth and energy security.”

MEMAN said imports should continue to complement local refining despite improved domestic capacity. It said, “Although domestic refining has significantly reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported petroleum products, imports will continue to play a complementary role in ensuring supply diversity and sustaining competitive market conditions.

“While Dangote Refinery maintains that imports should be banned where sufficient domestic supply exists, the Federal Government has consistently maintained that preserving its authority to issue import licences is essential to managing the country’s strategic and security stocks, preventing supply shortages, safeguarding competition, and mitigating excessive market concentration.”

The association also warned that Nigeria’s long-term fuel supply should not depend on a single refinery and called for the establishment of a National Strategic Stock to cushion refinery outages, logistics disruptions and geopolitical shocks. It added that the second half of 2026 would be a period of market consolidation, with priorities centred on stronger regulation, balanced supply arrangements and enhanced energy security.

The Central Bank of Nigeria on Tuesday said recent stability in the foreign exchange market, rising foreign reserves and moderating inflation indicate that its ongoing monetary reforms are beginning to yield positive results.

The apex bank disclosed that Nigeria’s external reserves had risen above $52.5bn as of July 17, 2026, exceeding its annual target and reaching their highest level in 17 years.

CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso, represented by the Acting Director of the Corporate Communications and Investor Relations Department, Mrs Hakama Sidi-Ali, made the disclosure at the CBN Fair held at the International Conference Centre, Gombe. Sidi-Ali also reiterated the development in a statement issued on Tuesday.

According to the statement, “The Central Bank of Nigeria has disclosed that Nigeria’s foreign reserves have exceeded its annual target and have climbed above $52.5bn as of July 17, 2026, representing a 17-year high.”

Cardoso said the milestone reflected sustained capital inflows, renewed investor confidence and growing confidence in Nigeria’s economic management. “This is supported by sustained inflows and renewed investor confidence and participation across asset classes in Nigeria,” he said.

He noted that headline inflation declined marginally from 15.93 per cent in May 2026 to 15.91 per cent in June, while core and food inflation also moderated during the period.

According to him, the improvement was driven by “disciplined monetary tightening, exchange-rate unification, and improved market transparency.” Cardoso added that the naira had recorded greater stability, with the gap between the official exchange rate and Bureau de Change rates narrowing to below two per cent.

He said, “The naira continues to strengthen, with the spread between official and Bureau de Change rates now narrowing to below two per cent.”

The CBN governor said the bank had, over the past 34 months, implemented reforms aimed at laying the foundation for sustainable economic growth, job creation and poverty reduction.

He listed the reforms to include the unification and increased transparency of the foreign exchange market, recapitalisation of the banking sector, the introduction of the non-resident Bank Verification Number, the B-Match foreign exchange trading platform, the Nigeria Payments System Vision 2028, the introduction of a 75 per cent Cash Reserve Ratio on non-Treasury Single Account public sector deposits and the Nigerian Overnight Financing Rate benchmark.

He said the reforms were designed to strengthen liquidity management, improve transparency, deepen financial markets and align Nigeria’s money market infrastructure with international best practices.

Speaking on the theme of the fair, “Driving Alternative Payment Channels as Tools for Financial Inclusion, Growth and Accelerated Economic Development,” Cardoso said the CBN remained committed to promoting alternative payment channels to deepen financial inclusion and support economic activities.

He said the fair provided an opportunity for the apex bank to engage directly with citizens, businesses and other stakeholders, explain its policies and obtain public feedback. “The fair is one of the Bank’s platforms strategically designed to engage the public on the Bank’s policies and initiatives,” he said.

He urged participants to actively engage in the sessions by asking questions and seeking clarification on the bank’s policies and programmes. The apex bank also reiterated its warning against the abuse and misuse of the naira.

Sidi-Ali urged Nigerians to obtain information on CBN policies only from the bank’s verified platforms and to respect the national currency. She said, “I also urge you to uphold the cleanliness and respect of the Naira. It is prohibited to spray, hawk, mutilate, or counterfeit the  naira.”

Earlier, the Branch Controller of the CBN Gombe Branch, Yunusa Buba-Mubi, described the CBN Fair as an annual engagement platform designed to educate the public on the bank’s policies and provide stakeholders with opportunities to ask questions and offer feedback.

He urged participants to pay attention to the presentations and actively engage in the sensitisation sessions to deepen public understanding of the apex bank’s initiatives and their impact on the economy.

The CBN said it would continue implementing policies aimed at maintaining monetary and price stability, strengthening financial markets, rebuilding investor confidence and promoting sustainable economic growth.

Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals FZE is targeting about $5bn through an Initial Public Offering expected to conclude in October, with the proceeds earmarked to expand its Lagos refinery’s capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day.

According to a Reuters report on Tuesday, the proposed transaction could become Africa’s biggest-ever stock market listing.

Sources familiar with the transaction said the refinery had submitted an initial application to the Securities and Exchange Commission and was awaiting regulatory approval in the coming weeks. Subject to approval, the company is expected to publish its prospectus in September ahead of the October share sale.

One source familiar with the transaction said the refinery was targeting a $5bn fundraising, although the final amount would depend on the approval granted by the Nigerian regulator.

“The IPO’s target was $5bn, but the final figure will depend on what the Nigerian regulator approves, as the primary listing will be on the Nigerian Stock Exchange,” the source said.

If achieved, the fundraising would account for just over four per cent of the Nigerian Exchange’s All Share Index, whose market capitalisation stood at about $116bn on Tuesday.

 The refinery, owned by Africa’s richest businessman, Aliko Dangote, plans to use the proceeds to increase refining capacity as part of efforts to reduce Africa’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products and strengthen the continent’s position as a fuel exporter.

According to the sources, the company is also considering constructing a refinery along the Kenyan coast in partnership with East African governments.

The planned public offering has attracted interest from capital markets across Africa. Stock exchanges in South Africa, Kenya, Egypt, Ghana and Rwanda have reportedly held discussions with the refinery’s advisers in recent months.

One source said Kenya’s capital market could contribute as much as $500m towards the IPO, citing strong demand from institutional investors. “There is tremendous appetite for the issue among local investors such as pension funds,” the source said.

The refinery also intends to make the offering a pan-African investment opportunity. According to one source, investors outside Nigeria may gain access to the IPO through structured investment products rather than a cross-listing.

The source explained, “Other capital markets on the continent that want a slice of the deal will have to craft structured solutions for their investors, such as global depositary receipts or exchange-traded instruments, which mirror the actual shares to be listed on the Nigerian exchange, including the right to accrue future dividends.”

However, the source clarified that a cross-listing or dual listing on other African exchanges was not planned. The proposed IPO follows a $2.5bn private placement completed last month for a six per cent stake, which valued the refinery at about $40bn.

Reuters noted that the valuation is significantly higher than those of some listed global refiners. Turkey’s Tupras, which has a combined refining capacity comparable to Dangote’s across four refineries, has a market value of about $12bn, while United States-listed HF Sinclair, with a refining capacity of 678,000 barrels per day, has a market capitalisation of around $16bn.

The refinery, which cost about $20bn to build, commenced operations in 2024 and reached full production capacity earlier this year. Nigeria’s state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited holds a stake of just over seven per cent in the facility.

In April, Dangote announced plans to increase the refinery’s production capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day. The sources also disclosed that investors participating in the IPO would have the option of subscribing and receiving returns in either naira or US dollars.

According to the sources, Dangote wants the public offering to become “an African champion”, enabling capital markets across the continent to participate in financing one of Africa’s largest industrial assets.

Both sources requested anonymity because discussions surrounding the transaction remain confidential. Efforts to obtain comments from Dangote were unsuccessful.