Africa’s economic growth has been predicted to slow slightly to 4.2 per cent in 2026 before returning to 4.4 per cent in 2027, matching the level recorded in 2025, says African Development Bank (AfDB) .

The is according to the Banks forecasts which appeared in the 2026 edition of the African Economic Outlook report presented during its annual meetings in Brazzaville.

According to the AfDB, the expected slowdown in 2026 mainly reflects the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on the global economy.

“The impact of this shock on growth and macroeconomic stability will depend on the duration of the supply chain disruptions and their effects on global energy and fertilizer prices,” the report said.

East Africa is expected to remain the continent’s fastest-growing region, despite a slowdown from 6.6% in 2025 to 5.9% in 2026. The AfDB links the weaker pace to logistics disruptions and higher energy costs.

West Africa should maintain relatively stable growth around 4.7%, supported by agriculture, infrastructure investment and continued expansion in the mining and oil sectors. In North Africa, growth is expected to slow to 4% in 2026 as higher energy costs and weaker tourist arrivals from Gulf countries affect economic activity.

Central Africa’s economy should grow by 3.8% in 2026, mainly supported by sustained commodity prices, especially oil. Southern Africa is expected to remain the continent’s weakest-performing region, with growth limited to 2.1% because of supply chain disruptions and the broader economic effects of the Middle East conflict.

The AfDB expects average inflation across Africa to reach 10.4% in 2026, driven mainly by higher global oil and gas prices. Even so, that level would remain below the 13.7% recorded in 2025.

The continent’s average fiscal deficit should narrow slightly to 4.8% of GDP in 2026. The report also points to temporary stabilization in external balances, but warns that rising energy and fertilizer prices could widen current account deficits again. The institution also highlighted risks linked to lower development aid and possible pressure on migrant remittances.

The AfDB said African economies continue to face a difficult international environment marked by rising trade tensions, climate shocks, lower foreign investment, geopolitical fragmentation and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The institution also cited the uncertain consequences of the conflict in the Middle East, which continue to affect global markets and supply chains. To help economies absorb external shocks, the AfDB called on governments to strengthen coordination between monetary and fiscal policy, improve social support measures and avoid broad fuel subsidies.

“African central banks need to implement prudent monetary and exchange rate policies tailored to anchor long-term inflation expectations,” the institution said.

The bank added that central banks and finance ministries should act quickly to limit second-round effects linked to rising food and energy prices. The AfDB also urged countries to accelerate investment in renewable energy, regional infrastructure and industrial transformation in order to reduce dependence on imports. The institution called for deeper implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), broader tax bases and stronger African financial systems.

The Bank stressed the need for greater economic sovereignty through stronger domestic resource mobilization, the development of African financial institutions and deeper regional integration. The AfDB’s forecasts broadly match projections published earlier this year by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), which expects Africa’s economy to grow by 4% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, compared with 3.9% in 2025.

According to UNCTAD, the improvement should come from stronger macroeconomic stability, higher investment levels and firmer domestic demand.

The Dangote refinery in a sustainable growth movement has hit full capacity at a critical moment. Within weeks of reaching 650,000 barrels/day in February, the African producer was shipping record quantities of diesel and jet fuel to countries cut off from Middle Eastern supply.

Sustaining current run rates demands another order of trading sophistication, testing the limits of Dangote’s logistics, said David Bird, who left OQ8, owner of Oman’s Duqm refinery, in 2025 to become the company’s first CEO.

Bird has a three-year deadline to expand the Nigerian refineryto become the largest in the world. But first, cementing its role as a global heavyweight depends on feedstock diversification, securing offtake commitments and fixing supply chain bottlenecks, he told Platts in an interview at the refinery. Platts is part of S&P Global Energy.

“This is not a traditional refinery in an oil-producing country that just sits on the end of a crude pipeline and processes one crude,” Bird said. “This is a fully merchant refining model that you could see in Europe or Asia.”

Dangote transformed Nigeria’s fuel sector when it launched in 2024, but its output was capped at around 450,000 b/d during a gradual ramp-up punctuated by repeated outages on its main gasoline-producing unit. Since reaching 650,000 b/d in February, the refinery has remained at close to full capacity.

After the Middle East war began, Dangote shifted to “max jet mode,” and in April it became the world’s single largest exporter of aviation fuel, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data.

The refinery is also producing 200% of its gasoline potential by importing blending components like GTL naphtha and Bonny condensate, Bird said. As such, it can “comfortably” make 75 million liters/day (about 650,000 b/d), and could do 100 million l/d with better storage infrastructure, he added.

Other projects will further diversify the feedstock coming into Dangote. In addition to a new linear alkylbenzene plant and diesel hydrotreater, the company is planning to build a new 750,000 metric ton/year propane dehydrogenation plant, which will process imported LPG and convert it into polypropylene.

The Dangote model was designed to process the light sweet crude native to OPEC member Nigeria, but has been challenged by what the refinery says is a lack of local supply and poor terminal reliability.

Dangote can now refine 40 different types of crude, but Bird would like to see the number get closer to the 130 used at Singapore’s Pulau Bukom refinery, which he ran between 2012 and 2015, he said.

Dangote’s $10 billion expansion project will make the refinery capable of processing 1.4 million b/d, equivalent to 90% of Nigeria’s oil output forcing it to seek new crude streams. It has so far relied on US WTI Midland crude to supplement local supply, but as it scales up, it can incorporate heavier grades and residues, Bird said.

“We will be in the crude blending game,” he said. “So you can easily imagine at 1.4 million b/d we could process 30% Middle Eastern grades on each train.”

In an interview before the Middle East war began, founder Aliko Dangote said his business was eyeing crudes from countries like the UAE, and would consider Russian oil should sanctions be lifted. The refinery already has competitive operating costs of under $2.50/b, but the number could drop to $1.50/b post-expansion, he said. South American residues are also being considered, according to Bird.

In time, the company hopes to stimulate regional demand with low-cost fuel. It is finalizing approvals for a Namibian tank farm, which it plans to connect to Zambia by pipeline, and is also discussing a Djibouti oil link and storage in Cameroon, according to Bird and Devakumar Edwin, Dangote’s vice president for oil and gas.

The refinery currently ships half of its production overseas and plans to export all additional product from its expansion to international markets, Edwin said in a separate interview at the site.

By design, the refinery lacks storage capacity.

“We normally try to avoid stocks in all of the businesses,” Edwin said, explaining a wider Dangote Group ethos of forcing salespersons to move product.

However, limited tankage space leaves little margin for error for operators facing “a tsunami of product coming down the pipe every day” and unpredictable truck demand, Bird said.

Consequently, the business is deviating from its existing spot model, managed mostly by international trading companies, to pursue more long-term purchasing commitments from governments, distributors and national oil companies.

“We’ll be making sure that we’re not the supplier of last resort,” Bird said. “We want to start building some of those direct offtake relationships.”

Dangote has had an influx of requests from African countries and a recent deal with Ethiopian Airlines, Bird said. In contrast to its first years, the refinery is better positioned to offer competitive credit and payment terms, he added.

The company is also tailoring its port infrastructure to support smaller cargoes and reduce dependence on truck-outs. After hitting constraints with its single-point mooring system, it is developing a four-berth marine jetty to accommodate LR2-size ships and below, Bird said.

The refinery expansion will involve “ruthless replication of the existing plant,” Bird said, partly to cut engineering time. Nevertheless, the second train will likely involve different catalyst choices to meet winter fuel-grade specifications in the Northern Hemisphere, which incur a heavy yield penalty with the current configuration, he said.

The project is being supported by an IPO later this year, which Dangote hopes will value the business at $50 billion. The company will list 5%-10% of its shares on the Nigerian stock exchange and is considering others, including London and Dubai.

According to Bird, the refinery is on the cusp of transforming the Lekki free zone, where it is located, into an industrial hub that could resemble some of the largest in the Middle East. “It will be a very brave person that underestimates Alhaji Aliko Dangote,” Bird said. “You come here in 10, 15 years, and this will look like Jebel Ali.”

MTN Nigeria has recorded an expanded network coverage to 93.7 per cent of the population, to support the country’s broadband penetration and digital inclusion in 2025.

According to the company’s just-released 2025 Sustainability Report, the company invested N2.7 billion in social-impact initiatives that reached more than 534,000 people.

The company attributed the improved coverage, up from 93% in 2024, to continued rollout of base stations across rural and underserved communities.

This included the deployment of 229 integrated renewable, solar-powered rural telephony sites under its Project Zero initiative. Broadband penetration across MTN’s network footprint reached 90.1%, while 4G population coverage remained stable at about 82%.

The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) says MTN Nigeria accounted for more than half of the country’s active GSM connections in 2025, serving approximately 89.64 million active mobile lines.

The CSR footprint of the company also expanded last year. MTN Foundation’s increased recipients rose to more than 534,000.

The programmes in 2025 spanned community infrastructure, maternal healthcare, youth empowerment and digital access. Under its STEM scholarship scheme, 300 students studying science and technology disciplines in public tertiary institutions received scholarships worth N300,000 annually through graduation.

The company also continued its Scholarship for Blind Students and Top-10 UTME Scholarship initiatives, while distributing more than 25,000 learning devices in partnership with state governments.

Another focus for the year was child online safety as MTN Nigeria’s ‘Help Children Be Children’ in response to growing concerns around online grooming and exposure to harmful digital content.

The initiative includes school sensitisation programmes, parental workshops and collaborations with civil society organisations.

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On the flip side, the company disclosed that it spent more than NGN1 billion on infrastructure repairs and security interventions following 9,218 fibre cuts recorded nationwide during the year, incidents linked largely to vandalism and theft of telecoms assets