Nigeria produced a total of 443.25 million barrels of crude oil between January and October 2025, according to crude oil and condensate production data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission.

According to the NUPRC report, this translates to an average of about 1.46 million barrels per day. Despite intermittent improvements, the output level meant that Africa’s largest oil producer remained below its 1.5 million barrels per day crude oil quota set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, achieving about 97 per cent of the quota during the 10-month period.

A breakdown of the figures shows that January recorded the highest crude oil production during the period at 47.70 million barrels, while February was the weakest month at 41.02 million barrels.

Output recovered in March and April and remained relatively strong through May, June, and July before easing in August and September. Crude oil production in October stood at 43.44 million barrels.

In addition to crude oil, Nigeria produced 60.55 million barrels of condensate between January and October. This comprised 17.38 million barrels of blended condensate and 43.17 million barrels of unblended condensate, reflecting the growing role of condensates in supporting overall oil output.

Combined crude oil and condensate production during the period amounted to 503.79 million barrels, equivalent to an average total oil production of about 1.66 million barrels per day.

However, this performance fell short of the Federal Government’s 2025 budget oil production benchmark of over two million barrels per day, which covers both crude oil and condensate.

At an average of 1.66 million barrels per day, Nigeria underperformed the budget target by about 340,000 barrels per day, representing a shortfall of roughly 17 per cent, despite condensate volumes boosting headline production.

Data from the commission show that average daily oil production in October stood at 1.60 million barrels per day, comprising 1.40 million barrels per day of crude oil and about 196,000 barrels per day of condensate. This placed Nigeria’s crude oil output for the month at 93 per cent of its OPEC allocation.

The continued gap between actual production and both OPEC and budget benchmarks has implications for government revenue and foreign exchange earnings, as crude oil exports remain a major source of fiscal funding.

While the Federal Government has pledged to raise oil output through improved security, reduced crude theft, and infrastructure rehabilitation, the January to October figures indicate that structural and operational challenges continue to constrain Nigeria’s oil production, even as condensate output provides some support to overall volumes.

For the 2026 fiscal year, the Federal Government is projecting about N60.97tn in oil revenue, lower than the earnings anticipated in the 2025 budget, reflecting more conservative assumptions on crude oil prices and production.

The projection is based on an analysis and the calculation of data contained in the 2026 Appropriation Bill presented to a joint session of the National Assembly in Abuja by President Bola Tinubu recently.

According to the President, the 2026 revenue estimate is anchored on a benchmark crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel, daily production of 1.84 million barrels, and an average exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar.

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, has said repeatedly that Nigeria can achieve the production of three million barrels of oil per day in 2025.

“When we came, we barely did a million barrels. Today, we are doing 1.8 mbpd, and we can do more. And those who are responsible for this are more local. And that’s why I’m saying that look, we need to come together and continue on this trajectory. Let’s finish the journey that we have made together. From a million barrels, we have achieved an 80 per cent addition.

“I want to see how we can do 2.5 to three million barrels this year. And we can do it,” Lokpobiri said earlier in the year. However, this has not been achieved as of the time of this report.

Meanwhile, the newly appointed Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum, Mrs Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, has pledged to reposition Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas sector, boost investments, and raise oil and gas production.

Eyesan formally assumed office on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, following a handover from the immediate past Chief Executive, Gbenga Komolafe. According to a statement, the new chief executive outlined her vision during her first town hall meeting with management and staff of the commission.

The Central Bank of Nigeria predicts external reserves will climb to $51.04bn in 2026, up from $45bn in 2025.

This projection was contained in the Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria, 2026, titled ‘Consolidating Macroeconomic Stability Amid Global Uncertainty’, published by the CBN on Tuesday.

The PUNCH reported that Nigeria’s external reserves as of Monday, 29 December 2025, stood at $45.45bn, following days of steady accretion.

“The external reserves are projected at $51.04bn in 2026, compared with $45.01bn in 2025. The external reserves are expected to be boosted by reduced pressure in the FX market based on the anticipated rise in oil earnings, sovereign bond issuance, and diaspora remittance inflows.

“Additionally, Dangote refinery’s expansion of its nameplate capacity to 700,000 bpd from 650,000 bpd in 2025 and eventually to 1.4 million bpd in the medium term would further support the growth in external reserves,” the report read.

In the FX market, the apex bank noted that reforms are expected to further enhance efficiency and transparency, narrow the premium between the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market and Bureau de Change rates, and sustain exchange rate stability. In addition, improved domestic oil refining capacity is expected to reduce foreign exchange demand for fuel imports.

On inflation, the CBN anticipates that headline inflation will decelerate further to 12.94 per cent in 2026, driven by a combination of factors, and is expected to come down to 10.75 per cent in 2027.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, inflation has been falling for consecutive months, supported by the base-year effect.

As of November, headline inflation had dropped to 14.45 per cent, relative to the October 2025 headline inflation rate of 16.05 per cent. However, the NBS said the Consumer Price Index rose to 130.5 points in November 2025 from 128.9 points in October, reflecting a 1.6-point increase month-on-month.

The CBN stated, “Inflation is expected to continue its downward trend in 2026. The inflation outlook is predicated on continued stability in the foreign exchange and energy markets, the lagged effect of previous rate hikes, and improved policy coordination. Headline inflation is projected to further decelerate to 12.94 per cent in 2026 from 21.26 per cent estimated for 2025. The anticipated moderation would be driven by declining food and premium motor spirit prices. The expected deceleration in PMS prices would be driven by increasing competition within the midstream segment of the oil industry.

“Furthermore, the anticipated faster decline in food prices is expected to drive the slower pace of inflation. This would be on account of the expected increase in food supply following the launch of various agriculture sector-based policies, improved security in major food-producing regions, and favourable weather conditions.”

The CBN also added that in the transition phase, monetary policy will be flexible to balance price stability and growth objectives. Hence, the Monetary Policy Rate, the Cash Reserve Ratio and other instruments would be adjusted appropriately to manage the growth in money supply and attain a non-accelerating inflation growth path.

On projected monetary conditions in 2026, the CBN said they are expected to be relatively loose in view of the macroeconomic stability observed in 2025, as inflation and exchange rate risks continue to subside.

“In line with its price stability mandate, the Bank will deploy appropriate tools to anchor expectations, foster financial stability, and promote confidence in the economy. The trajectory of monetary aggregates in 2026 is expected to be influenced by external conditions and fiscal operations. Changes in the naira value of foreign currency deposits, arising from exchange rate movements, will continue to influence monetary aggregates. Nevertheless, the Bank’s policy stance, complemented by measures to stabilise the foreign exchange market, is expected to moderate the growth rate of monetary aggregates in 2026,” the bank said.

On the fiscal front, the apex bank noted that the outlook for 2026 is broadly positive, buoyed by sustained improvements in domestic crude oil production and the phased implementation of the Nigeria Tax Act, 2025, which is expected to strengthen non-oil revenue mobilisation.

“However, downside risks persist. A sustained decline in global oil prices below the budget benchmark and an unexpected reduction in oil production could undermine projected oil revenues. Elevated debt service obligations, extra-budgetary spending, and a potential rise in statutory transfers due to pre-election spending could further constrain the fiscal space. The fiscal outlook for 2026 is vulnerable to various risk factors. Notably, a budget risk could crystallise if crude oil prices and domestic production fall below benchmarks, thereby dampening the optimism about oil revenue contribution (57.01 per cent) to the total revenue outcome in 2026.

“Although crude oil production is expected to ramp up in the near term, the domestic oil sector remains sensitive to global shocks. The expectation of a strong non-oil revenue performance in 2026 is hinged on the successful implementation of the Nigeria Tax Act, 2025, and the sustenance of the ongoing tax effort. However, low tax awareness and compliance levels, as well as gaps in tax administration systems, remain significant risks to tax revenue projections,” the bank noted.

In the financial sector, the CBN expressed concerns about rising non-performing loans and their impact on banks, saying, “Rising NPLs pose a direct threat to banks’ profitability, credit availability, and overall risk-bearing capacity. This underscores the need to sustain measures to ensure that worsening NPLs do not weaken banks’ balance sheets, impair asset quality, and trigger systemic contagion. Although recent gains in capital adequacy and liquidity ratios provide a buffer, these indicators remain susceptible to unforeseen macroeconomic shocks.

“An increase in credit losses or foreign exchange illiquidity could erode capital reserves, breach prudential thresholds, and strain liquidity coverage. These conditions could disrupt financial intermediation, diminish market confidence, and amplify vulnerabilities across the banking sector.”

Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc has secured approvals from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Securities and Exchange Commission to undertake a private placement of its ordinary shares worth N10bn, the company announced on Tuesday.

The private placement, detailed in a notice filed with the Nigerian Exchange Limited, will involve the allotment of 125 million ordinary shares at N80 per share, with each share having a nominal value of 50 kobo. It is scheduled to close on December 31, 2025, subject to the fulfilment of all regulatory conditions, GTCO said.

“The board has authorised the company to embark on a private placement to raise N10bn by the allotment of 125 million ordinary shares of 50 kobo each,” the company said in a statement signed by Erhi Obebeduo, Group General Counsel.

GTCO explained that the private placement is being undertaken pursuant to Section 7.1 of the Guidelines for Licensing and Regulation of Financial Holding Companies in Nigeria.

It follows a shareholders’ resolution passed at the 2024 Annual General Meeting, which authorised the Board to establish a capital raising programme of up to $750m or its equivalent through various instruments and methods, including private placements.

The move comes after GTCO’s banking subsidiary, Guaranty Trust Bank Limited, surpassed the CBN’s new minimum capital requirement for commercial banks with international authorisation, increasing its capital to N504.04bn.

“The professional parties involved will use their respective reasonable endeavours to procure a placee for the private placement shares. The Private Placement is not being underwritten,” the statement added.

GTCO’s Board said the exercise is aimed at strengthening the holding company’s capital base and supporting its ongoing strategic objectives.