Nigeria’s economic outlook remains positive as improved macroeconomic stability, steady oil production, recovering private-sector activity and continued reforms support economic expansion, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has said.
OPEC stated this in its latest assessment of the Nigerian economy, noting that the country’s economy expanded by 3.9 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026.
The growth rate was only slightly below the 4.0 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025, confirming that economic growth remained close to recent highs.
According to the oil producers’ organisation, the non-oil economy continued to provide the main support for growth, with activity driven by agriculture, manufacturing, construction, trade, finance and insurance.
It said higher oil output had also improved fiscal revenues, foreign exchange inflows and external buffers. “The economy expanded by 3.9 per cent, year-on-year, in 1Q26, only slightly below the 4Q25 pace of 4.0 per cent, confirming that growth remains close to recent highs,” OPEC stated.
The organisation said survey indicators pointed to continued, though moderating, momentum in private-sector activity. It noted that the Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Purchasing Managers’ Index eased to 52.5 in July, from 53.4 in June and 54.1 in May.
The July reading, it said, was the weakest since March but still signalled a sixth consecutive monthly improvement in private-sector conditions. OPEC said firms again reported a marked increase in new orders, supported by improved customer demand, better pricing and new product launches.
It added that output and employment also rose modestly during the month. The organisation said higher domestic refining capacity, particularly improved fuel supply from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, should further support energy availability and reduce some of the pressures associated with petroleum imports.
“Higher domestic refining capacity, including improved fuel supply from the Dangote refinery, should continue to support energy availability and reduce some import-related pressures,” OPEC stated.
The Dangote refinery, with a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, has become a major source of locally refined petroleum products as its operations have expanded.
The refinery’s increased supply of petrol and other refined products has also reduced some of the country’s reliance on imported petroleum products, in line with the impact highlighted by OPEC.
On inflation, OPEC said pressures had begun to soften, with headline inflation standing at 15.9 per cent year-on-year in both June and May. “The July PMI pointed to softening input costs, despite higher fuel and raw material costs,” the organisation stated.
The report said the moderation in input costs was an indication that some cost pressures facing businesses had begun to ease, although higher fuel and raw material costs remained a challenge.
OPEC said Nigeria’s near-term outlook remained positive, with oil production, reform progress, infrastructure investment and stronger business activity providing support.
“Overall, Nigeria’s near-term outlook remains positive, supported by oil production, progress on reforms, infrastructure investment, and stronger business activity,” it stated.
The organisation’s assessment comes as increased oil production continues to strengthen Nigeria’s fiscal position and foreign exchange inflows, while reforms and infrastructure investment support activity outside the petroleum sector.
The non-oil economy’s contribution remains significant, with agriculture, manufacturing, construction, trade, finance and insurance identified as the major drivers of activity.
Meanwhile, the July PMI data indicated that private-sector businesses continued to expand despite the moderation in the pace of growth. Firms reported increased new orders as customer demand improved, while better pricing and new product launches also supported activity.
Output and employment recorded modest increases, pointing to continued expansion in business activity. OPEC said the combination of improved macroeconomic stability, steady oil production and continued reform momentum had strengthened Nigeria’s economic outlook.
With domestic refining capacity also increasing, the organisation expects improved fuel availability to support energy supply while easing some import-related pressures.
The organisation maintained that the country’s near-term prospects remained favourable, supported by higher oil output, reforms, infrastructure investment and stronger private-sector activity.