2027: Bad omen for ADC as opposition faces arrests, campaign restrictions, electoral setbacks

As political activities gradually gather momentum ahead of the 2027 general elections, the African Democratic Congress, ADC, is facing a tough time.

The ADC, once touted by some political observers as a potential rallying platform for disenchanted blocs, is grappling with internal and external headwinds.

From electoral disappointment and arrests, the road to 2027 appears increasingly steep.

FCT election setbacks

DAILY POST reported how the recent FCT area council elections exposed structural weaknesses within the ADC’s political machinery. Despite high-decibel campaigns and visible media engagement, the party failed to translate its visibility into electoral victories across key councils.

DAILY POST reports that for a party seeking to anchor a broader opposition movement, the FCT setback may serve as an early warning signal.

Analysts argue that while the ADC attempted to position itself as a credible alternative to the dominant parties, its grassroots mobilization fell short.

Some political watchers had noted that the FCT council elections offered the ADC an opportunity to test its readiness for 2027.

However, the outcome raised concerns about its organizational depth, voter penetration and coalition-building capacity.

Commenting about the FCT elections, veteran journalist and former presidential aide, Dr. Reuben Abati, said the ADC failed to translate its campaign efforts into electoral success in the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, area council elections.

Abati made the remarks on Monday while speaking on Arise Television’s Morning Show.

He said the outcome of the elections in Abuja showed that the contests had largely been decided, noting that political parties must begin to reassess their strategies ahead of future polls.

“We just hope that all the stakeholders, including the ADC that put up shows in Abuja and got nothing, will learn from this and all the parties will strategize.

“What that will imply in the future is something we cannot say,” Abati said.

DAILY POST also reported that former Chairman of the National Human Rights Commission, Chidi Odinkalu, criticised opposition political parties and leaders over their handling of the FCT elections, describing them as ineffective and disorganised.

Speaking on Politics Today on Channels Television on Monday, Odinkalu said the opposition failed to demonstrate leadership at a critical moment.

Odinkalu described the opposition as “an utter disgrace,” stating that the current political climate reflects a lack of seriousness among parties expected to provide checks on the ruling government.

“It’s difficult to speak to the ineptitude of political opposition in Nigeria. They are not serious.

“And I think anybody who looks at the system, has got to say at the moment, there is absolutely no opposition,” Odinkalu said.

El-Rufai’s incarceration by ICPC, EFCC, DSS

Last week, the political climate in the country intensified following the arrest and detention of former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, by anti-corruption and security agencies including the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission, ICPC, Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, and the Department of State Services, DSS.

Although the ruling All Progressives Congress maintains that such actions are part of ongoing investigations and institutional mandates, opposition voices have described the move as politically charged.

Some supporters have also argued that the timing raises questions, especially as alignments and realignments intensify ahead of 2027.

Although highly controversial, El-Rufai is seen by many as one of the key leaders of the ADC capable of turning the heat on President Bola Tinubu’s reelection.

His arrest has since unsettled the party.

DAILY POST reported that former vice President Atiku Abubakar on Tuesday warned that the health and welfare of Nasir El-Rufai is a matter of grave concern to his family, friends, and associates.

Atiku’s warning to the government came after it was reported that El-Rufai bled through the nose over the weekend.

However, in a statement via X on Tuesday, Atiku said that the Federal Government owes Nigerians clarity.

According to Atiku, “the government has a constitutional duty to guarantee El-Rufai’s safety, dignity, access to medical care, and access to his family and legal representatives.

“Reports that he suffered a nosebleed while family members were allegedly denied access are deeply troubling and unacceptable in a democracy.

“If the authorities cannot guarantee his health and fundamental rights, the lawful and humane course of action is to grant him bail without delay. If anything happens to El-Rufai, this government will be held accountable.”

Meanwhile, DAILY POST recalls that weeks ago, former Attorney General of the Federation, AGF, Abubakar Malami, also a chieftain of the ADC, was equally arrested and detained by the EFCC.

Enugu govt’s N150m fee for political campaign ads

In what has generated widespread discussion, the Enugu State Structures for Signage and Advertisement Agency (ENSSAA) on Monday announced a mandatory N150 million permit fee for political campaign advertising ahead of the 2026 and 2027 elections.

The policy, introduced under the administration of Governor Peter Mbah, has been defended as a regulatory measure aimed at maintaining order and ensuring compliance with state advertising laws.

However, opposition parties view the fee as prohibitive, arguing that it disproportionately affects smaller parties like the ADC.

DAILY POST reported that the Enugu State chapter of the ADC kicked against the mandatory fee.

The party described the campaign advertising permit fee as unlawful, unconstitutional and undemocratic.

ADC accused the ruling APC in Enugu State of inventing the fee to shut out the opposition parties from contesting the coming elections in the state.

In a press release signed by Paul Anigbogu on behalf of Enugu ADC Media Team, the opposition party accused the state Government of trying to usurp the powers of the federal government by imposing the “illegal” advertising permit fee, in total contravention of the Constitution of Nigeria.

“We totally reject this fee and will not hesitate to challenge it in court, if the state government fails to rescind the illegal and unconstitutional financial obstruction placed on the way of political parties and candidates vying for local government election and general elections in Enugu State,” part of the statement read.

Alleged assassination attempt on Peter Obi

On Tuesday, tensions escalated further with reports of an alleged assassination attempt on former presidential candidate, Mr Peter Obi.

Dr Yunusa Tanko, National Coordinator of the Obidient Movement Worldwide, issued a statement from Abuja confirming the attack.

Tanko said the incident occurred shortly after the formal declaration of senior lawyer, Olumide Akpata as a member of the ADC.

Armed men, he said, trailed the group from the ADC Secretariat directly to Chief Odigie-Oyegun’s private residence, where they shot at the gate and several vehicles parked within the compound.

“Peter Obi and the leadership of the ADC are under siege and attack in Benin, Edo State.

“They shot at the gate and destroyed several vehicles in what appears to be a survived assassination attempt on our lives. Democracy is in danger,” Tanko said wrote.

Shortly after the incident was made public, many supporters of the party took to social media, describing the development as alarming and symptomatic of rising political hostility.

DAILY POST reports that Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, now in ADC, whose strong showing at the polls and subsequent legal battle kept him at the centre of Nigerian opposition politics, remains one of the most recognisable faces of the movement challenging the current administration.

Newly signed 2026 Electoral Act

Adding another dimension to the unfolding drama is the newly signed 2026 Electoral Act, which introduced both manual and electronic transmission of election results.

The opposition figures claim that the proviso provided in the act for manual transmission of election results may inadvertently favor rigging and manipulation of results.

In a statement issued on Thursday and signed by its National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, the party described the President’s approval of the amendment as a setback to credible elections in the country.

According to the opposition party, the amendment introduces ambiguity and grants excessive discretion in the collation and transmission of election results, which it warned could weaken public confidence in future elections.

The ADC also expressed concern that the absence of firm guarantees for electronic transparency could heighten tension during elections, as citizens might feel compelled to remain at polling units to safeguard their votes.

“As a duly constituted political party in the Federal Republic of Nigeria, following the actions taken by President Bola Tinubu on Wednesday, 18th February, the ADC affirms in the strongest and clearest possible terms that we are ready, willing, and prepared to defend the sanctity of Nigeria’s democracy using every constitutional and lawful means available to us.

“We will mobilise Nigerians toward vigilance, toward lawful participation, and toward unity in defence of their constitutional rights,” the party said.

Nigeria lacks coordinated opposition — Analyst

Meanwhile, a public affairs analyst and communication expert at Peaceland University, Enugu, Nduka Odo, has said Nigeria currently lacks a structured and coordinated opposition capable of challenging the ruling APC ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Odo made the assertion during an interview with DAILY POST on Tuesday, stating that recent political developments in the country had validated his earlier position that there was no formidable opposition in place.

According to him, isolated voices cannot be described as a political opposition, noting that effective opposition required force, momentum and coordination.

He described the ADC as a “sketch” of what an opposition party should be, pointing to its performance in the recent Abuja elections as evidence that the party was yet to fully establish itself as a credible alternative.

Odo said the outcome of the Abuja polls should serve as an early warning to the ADC to reorganize before 2027.

The analyst also criticised the party’s response to the passage of the controversial electoral act amendment bill, arguing that the ADC failed to take meaningful action.

Odo said that if the APC were in opposition, it would have mobilised protests at the National Assembly and escalated the issue to international media platforms such as CNN and BBC, accusing the ruling party of attempting to manipulate the 2027 elections.

He further stated that the ADC appears divided and lacks internal cohesion, alleging that its leaders do not seem united or fully committed to building a strong opposition platform.

Odo said: “Recent activities in the country have proven what I’ve said somewhere else. There’s no opposition in Nigeria right now.

“Lone voices don’t constitute political opposition. That’s what the likes of Peter Obi are today. An opposition needs force, momentum, coordination.

“ADC is currently a sketch of what an opposition should be. This showed up in the recent Abuja elections. It was an early warning to ADC to put its acts together before 2027.

“The fact that ADC did nothing worthwhile when the lawmakers passed the obviously controversial electoral act amendment tells you that the party still has a long way to go. We all watched what Benjamin Kalu, the deputy speaker, did, ignoring house members who called for order.

“The members wanted to know what was in the bill, but he kept going. If APC was in the opposition, they’d have besieged the House of Reps.

“They would still be protesting against the passage of the electoral act. They would be in CNN and BBC, narrating how the ruling party has perfected a means to glitch’ 2027 election.

“But ADC is not doing any of that. It feels like ADC hasn’t really formed into a single united body. They don’t seem yet to know what to agree on. The leaders don’t seem to trust each other. It seems they all have one leg in and one leg out.

“And APC understands this. I once predicted that the PDP would die before the 2027 election. It’s almost done. My only shocker is that of LP, which didn’t truly survive the scourge of Lamidi Apapa.

“A similar scourge seems to await ADC. And I saw the fingers of the ruling party in the ailment of LP. I also see their fingers in the jaundiced stand of ADC.

“The continued gulping of the opposition by the ruling party, through whatever strategy, is dangerous to our nascent democracy. You can’t make every elected leader jump over to the ruling party.

“The members of the legislature, the primary arm of the government, responsible for checking the excesses of the executive, singing the sycophantic anthem of the president, on the floor of legislation, in place of the National Anthem, it’s absurd and anti-democratic.

“Oppositionsim is an ideal that goes beyond the quest to takeover power. We need structured opposition back for sanity to return to governance in Nigeria.”

Taraba PDP crisis deepens as state leadership rejects factional caretaker committee

The internal crisis rocking the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in Taraba State has intensified following the rejection of a 16-member caretaker committee constituted by a faction of the party’s National Caretaker Working Committee.

The faction, reportedly led by Nyesom Wike, had on Tuesday announced the appointment of the committee to oversee the affairs of the party in the state for an initial period of 30 days or until a new executive committee is elected. The committee, chaired by Victor Falack, was said to have been constituted in line with provisions of the party’s constitution.

According to the faction, the move was aimed at stabilizing the party’s structure in Taraba and ensuring compliance with constitutional guidelines.

However, the announcement was swiftly rejected by the recognized Taraba State leadership of the PDP. In a statement signed by the party’s Media and Publicity Officer, Herbert Faith Bello, the state chapter described the purported caretaker committee as “false, misleading and unauthorized.”

The statement maintained that the publication emanated from “an unrecognized body with no constitutional standing within the Party” and accused those behind it of attempting to create confusion and unnecessary tension among members.

The state chapter reaffirmed that the PDP in Taraba remains duly constituted under the leadership of Acting Chairman, Comrade Chief Obidah Bitrus.

It stressed that the existing leadership structure is intact and fully committed to upholding the party’s constitution and the principles of internal democracy.

“Party members and the general public have been advised to disregard the caretaker committee announcement in its entirety, as it does not reflect the position of the recognized state leadership or any authentic organ of the party,” the statement read.

As events continue to unfold, party faithful and stakeholders who spoke to DAILY POST said they are awaiting further clarification from the national leadership to determine the legality and political implications of the competing claims.

Nwanyanwu reveals reason MKO Abiola wanted to be Nigerian President

The National Leader of the Zenith Labour Party, ZLP, Dan Nwanyanwu has recalled the time when he and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu visited the late MKO Abiola when he was in a Lagos hospital.

During one of those visits, which he said was frequent, he said Abiola told him that one of the reasons he wanted to be president was because of an emotional encounter with a chief surgeon at a London hospital who happened to be Nigerian.

Speaking on Arise News Prime Time, the politician said that President Tinubu was present when Abiola gave the account of his experience at the London hospital.

Nwanyanwu said that Abiola had vowed to build world class hospitals back home in Nigeria and bring home Nigerian doctors who are doing well in the field abroad.

Nwanyanwu lamented that monies meant to build standard hospitals in every state of the country are being stolen at the centre.

“Abiola had a swollen leg and he was admitted in the Eko hospital in Lagos.

“I was the only non-member of the family that was with him. The wife will bring food, leave it with me. I will serve him after eating, I will eat the remnants.

“Abiola called me one day, Comrade, do you know why I want to be president? I said, tell me, Mr. President. He said, ‘There was a time and went for surgery in a hospital to London, they wheeled me to the theater. Six doctors were in the room, three on my right, three on my left, all white people.

“After 10 minutes, I said do the thing and let me go. They said no, we are waiting for the chief surgeon. Not long, one black man came with two other doctors.

“When the black doctor entered, he moved close to Abiola and said ‘Ekaso’ and Abiola(surprised) answered (in Yoruba), what’s your name? Are you a Nigerian? The doctor said yes.

“Abiola told me tears dropped from his eyes. He said, ‘comrade, I will bring all these people back in Nigeria and put those hospitals here. Are you telling me that we cannot put Kings Hospital in every state in Nigeria?

“Are you telling me we cannot put these hospitals here? They have stolen the money for the hospitals from the center. We are selling oil but we are not seeing the money in the past how many years now.

“Abiola told me he cried that was part of the reason why he wanted to be president. Tinubu is aware of it. I’m calling him because everyday we were in Abiola’s house,” he said.

Osun community challenge state govt planned road closure

Tension mounted in Osogbo on Tuesday as residents of Ilupeju community publicly appealed to Governor Ademola Adeleke to halt moves they believe could cut off their neighbourhood from the rest of the city.

The appeal followed concerns over an alleged plan by the Osun State Ministry of Lands and Physical Planning to block what residents described as the only access road serving the community.

Dozens of residents gathered along the disputed route in a peaceful demonstration, displaying placards bearing messages such as “Save Ilupeju and Shittu Estate from Isolation” and “Our Road, Our Right”.

Community leaders said the protest became necessary after efforts to resolve the matter through dialogue with state government officials failed to yield a clear outcome.

Speaking for the residents, legal representative Taiwo Ajibola explained that the access road had served thousands of people for years and warned that its closure could create safety risks.

“We have about 3,000 houses here with more than 4,000 inhabitants. Blocking this road will create serious security and emergency challenges for everyone,” Ajibola said.

He stated that during earlier engagements with ministry officials, the community was informed that the road corridor formed part of a parcel of land allegedly belonging to an undisclosed individual.

Ajibola also disclosed that while discussions were ongoing in March 2025, a revocation notice was later observed on the land, raising new questions among homeowners about its status.

“After the revocation, the community applied for the land to be officially allotted to us so we could regularise the access road. We later discovered that it had been reallocated to another party without our knowledge,” he added.

According to him, petitions have been submitted to both the state government and the police authorities, with residents urging immediate intervention to prevent escalation.

Supporting the residents’ position, Abdulrahim Iderawumi, who represented the family said to have historical ties to the land, maintained that the route had long functioned as the recognised entry point to Ilupeju community.

“This has been the access road from time immemorial. People living here have no alternative route. We are appealing to Governor Adeleke to step in and ensure peace,” Iderawumi said.

Residents said they would await the outcome of the government’s promised intervention while maintaining their call for uninterrupted access to their community.

In response, the Commissioner for Lands and Physical Planning, George Alabi, stated that a structure had been developed on land originally designated for access, and described the currently used road as unauthorised.

Alabi, however, indicated that efforts were underway to resolve the impasse, noting that he had visited the area to assess the situation firsthand.

“After inspecting the roads shown to me, I assured the community that the ministry will find a way to create access so that there will be harmony between Ilupeju Community and the neighbouring GRA residents,” the commissioner said.

Owo Church attack: DSS arrests High-profile ISWAP commander hiding in Edo village

Operatives of the Department of State Services, DSS, have reportedly arrested the sixth suspected terrorist involved in the 2022 attack on St. Francis Catholic Church, Owo, Ondo state.

the members of the Islamic State West Africa Province, ISWAP, had during the attack, killed at least 40 innocent worshipers.

No fewer than five of the suspects identified as Idris Omeiza, Al Qasim Idris, Jamiu Abdulmalik, Abdulhaleem Idris, and Momoh Otuho Abubakar were earlier arrested and are currently being prosecuted.

It was gathered that the sixth suspect had been evading arrest nearly four years, making him one of the most wanted fugitives in Nigeria.

A security source told NTA that DSS, operatives, who had for years been on the trail of the sixth suspect, identified as Sani Yusuf, arrested him in Iguosa community, along Powerline in Ovia North Local Government Area of Edo State.

According to the source, Yusuf, a high-profile commander of the ISWAP had after the Owo church attack, temporarily slipped into Kano before deciding to relocate to the sleepy community in Edo State.

Court delays ruling in Ganduje port case

A Kano High Court has postponed proceedings in the case involving former governor, Abdullahi Ganduje over the ownership of a multi-billion-naira inland port project.

Ganduje and three others are facing 10 charges, including criminal conspiracy, misuse of public funds, breach of trust, and conflict of interest.

The Kano State Government filed the charges against him, his aide Abubakar Bawuro, his lawyer, Adamu Aliyu-Sanda, and a former Managing Director of the Nigerian Shippers’ Council, Hassan Bello.

The case was stalled on Monday after a strong disagreement between the defence and the prosecution teams.

Lead defence lawyer, A.S. Gadanya (SAN), questioned the legal approval, known as a fiat, that allowed the state’s legal team to prosecute the case.

He argued that the document presented in court was meant for a different matter and did not authorise the current prosecution. Based on that, he asked the court to nullify all previous proceedings handled by the prosecution.

However, the state’s lawyer, R.O. Zakariyya, disagreed. He told the court that the prosecution team had proper legal backing. Zakariyya presented what he described as a valid fiat, which he said clearly listed all members of the prosecution team and empowered them to handle the case.

Justice Yusuf Ubale of High Court No. 2, sitting at the Audu Bako Secretariat in Kano, listened to both sides but did not give an immediate ruling. Instead, he fixed 6 May to deliver a decision on the defence’s objection.

According to the state government, Ganduje and the other defendants allegedly worked together to transfer 80 percent of the shares of Dala Inland Dry Port, including the state government’s 20 percent stake to a private company identified as “City Green Enterprise.”

Prosecutors also claim that more than N4.49 billion belonging to Kano State was used to fund infrastructure projects at the port, such as road construction, electricity supply, and fencing, allegedly for personal and family gain.

The defendants are further accused of using their official positions to divert public resources for private benefit, in violation of financial and constitutional rules.

The case is expected to continue after the court rules on the legal challenge in May.

Ex-AfDB adviser unveils book on Africa’s industrial future

Prof. Banji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka

A former Senior Special Adviser on Industrialisation to the President of the African Development Bank, Professor Banji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka, has released a new book, The Quest for Industrialisation: Pioneering Technology Innovation and Industrial Development in Africa, urging African leaders to prioritise technological capability and manufacturing as the foundation for sustainable growth.

Oyeyinka, a professor of development economics and a globally respected scholar on innovation policy, describes the book as a compilation of his selected works spanning decades of research, policy engagement, and intellectual reflection.

“This book speaks to what I describe as my journey of Intellectual Discovery. The pursuit of knowledge is an endless search for meaning,” he said.

Oyeyinka began his academic career in chemical engineering at the University of Ife (now Obafemi Awolowo University) before earning a master’s degree at the University of Toronto, Canada. However, while preparing for his PhD, he experienced what he calls a defining ‘epiphany’.

“My appetite for engineering was totally replaced by a curiosity to understand better the forces that drive economic growth and why there is so much inequality in society,” he stated.

That moment, inspired by a lecture on technology transfer to developing countries, redirected his career towards development economics and technological change. He later completed his doctoral work at the science policy research unit, University of Sussex, specialising in industrialisation and innovation systems.

Over the years, Oyeyinka has served in several high-level policy and academic roles, including as Senior Special Adviser on Industrialisation to the AfDB President, where he provided strategic guidance on Africa’s industrial transformation agenda.

In the book’s introduction, the scholar argues that Africa’s weak industrial base has come at a heavy cost, particularly during global crises.

“The cost to Africans of a weak industrial base manifested most severely during the COVID-19 pandemic,” he notes. “In the face of acute shortages of vaccines, African countries looked on helplessly while individuals in Western nations received multiple booster shots. It was not only about money.”

He pointed to the rapid development of mRNA vaccines by pharmaceutical giants such as Pfizer as evidence that technological dominance, built over decades, determines economic resilience.

“History matters, and progress is path dependent,” Oyeyinka emphasises, arguing that knowledge accumulation is cumulative and that industrial capability cannot be built overnight.

The book strongly critiques Africa’s reliance on crude oil and mineral exports, describing it as an “unsustainable pathway”. “Resource dependence without the attendant technological base has been a race to the bottom of the wealth hierarchy,” he writes.

According to him, Nigeria’s oil discovery and the Democratic Republic of Congo’s mineral wealth exerted “a strong exclusionary effect on industrialisation”, stifling growth in manufacturing and tradable sectors.

“For most African countries, the share of manufacturing to GDP and manufacturing exports to GDP have declined or stagnated. Clearly, therein is the root of the pervasive foreign exchange crisis that countries face,” he states.

He warns that many African economies are experiencing premature deindustrialisation, a decline in manufacturing at much lower income levels than was the case in advanced economies, thereby losing the productivity gains that historically powered growth in Europe and Asia.

“Development is signalled by structural transformation from agrarian, low-technology economies to industrial countries that process commodities into high-value manufactured goods,” he explains.

Oyeyinka insists that sustainable industrialisation is Africa’s “non-negotiable development imperative”. “The mastery of manufacturing provides the greatest opportunities for countries to engage in learning, innovation and manufacturing exports,” he argues, adding that technological change, mediated by sound institutions and leadership, is the key determinant of long-term prosperity.

The volume also draws from his earlier influential works, including From Consumption to Production and Reversal of Fortune, which analyse Nigeria’s economic trajectory in comparison with rapidly industrialising Asian countries.

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo, in his endorsement of From Consumption to Production, described Oyeyinka’s scholarship as “well researched and supported with forcefully argued facts and figures.”

Similarly, political economist Richard Joseph hailed Reversal of Fortune as ‘a magisterial study’ that convincingly explains the divergence between Nigeria and Asian economies.

Through The Quest for Industrialisation, Oyeyinka says he hopes to reach a broader audience beyond academia.

“I have pulled these impact papers into one volume for those who have not had access to my two dozen books,” he writes. “My hope is that those who feel the pains of the poor but hope for an African renaissance would consider how its lessons and challenges continue to resonate even now.”

NNPC begins export of new crude grade in March – Report

NNPC LimitedNigeria is set to begin exporting a new light, sweet crude grade known as Cawthorne in March as part of efforts to boost oil production and consolidate the recent recovery in output, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has disclosed.

The development, which was confirmed by a spokesperson of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited to Reuters on Tuesday, is expected to strengthen the country’s position within the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as it seeks a higher production target amid improving output levels.

According to the report, the launch of the new grade is part of Nigeria’s broader push to lift production, which has been constrained for years by crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and security challenges in the Niger Delta. A source familiar with the development said the first export cargo is expected in the third week of March.

Cawthorne crude, which has an API gravity of 36.4, is similar in quality to Nigeria’s flagship Bonny Light, a grade widely valued by refiners for its high yields of gasoline and diesel. The report disclosed that NNPC issued a tender last week for the new grade for loading between March 24 and 25.

Analysts at energy intelligence firm Kpler noted that the crude is expected to be exported through the Floating Storage and Offloading vessel Cawthorne, which has a storage capacity of about 2.2 million barrels.

The facility is designed to enhance crude transportation and production from Oil Mining Lease 18 and surrounding assets in the eastern Niger Delta.

The introduction of the grade could increase Nigeria’s crude and condensate supply from about 1.65 million barrels per day to roughly 1.7 million barrels per day for the rest of the year, depending on operational stability and market demand.

Nigeria’s crude production quota under the OPEC+ framework currently stands at 1.5 million barrels per day. Data from the cartel showed that the country produced about 1.48 million barrels per day in January.

The country has, in recent months, ramped up security efforts across oil infrastructure and pipelines, leading to improved output and reduced losses from theft. Cawthorne is the third new crude grade introduced by Nigeria in recent years as the government and industry players work to diversify export streams and attract more buyers.

Other new grades launched include Obodo in 2025 and Utapate in 2024. Experts say the introduction of additional crude streams helps Nigeria target different market segments, improve pricing flexibility, and strengthen resilience in global oil trade.

Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, is intensifying reforms in the oil and gas sector under President Bola Tinubu, with a focus on improving production, increasing investment, and boosting government revenue.

The country’s oil output had declined in recent years due to operational disruptions and divestments by international oil companies. However, recent improvements in pipeline security and upstream activity are gradually restoring production levels.

A sustained growth in output and the introduction of new crude grades could enhance Nigeria’s earnings at a time when global oil prices remain volatile but supportive of energy-exporting economies.

Dangote signs deal to distribute 65m litres petrol

Dangote Cement Plc Signs Deal With Sinoma International Engineering Co. Ltd.The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has concluded an offtake agreement with 12 major petroleum marketing companies to distribute between 60 million and 65 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) daily across the country, in a move expected to stabilise supply and deepen Nigeria’s fuel self-sufficiency.

President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, disclosed this in Lagos, noting that the structured framework would guarantee nationwide availability of petrol while exporting surplus volumes.

According to a statement issued, Dangote said, “We have agreed an offtake framework to supply up to 65 million litres daily for the domestic market. Any surplus, estimated at between 15 and 20 million litres, will be exported.”

Dangote stated that the initiative marks a major shift in the country’s downstream petroleum sector, as Nigeria’s daily consumption currently ranges between 50 million and 60 million litres.

This means the refinery is expected to supply about 1.8 billion to over 2 billion litres of petrol monthly, depending on daily output and the number of days in the month.

The latest offtake and distribution arrangement follows an earlier agreement reached in October 2025 between the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and downstream operators aimed at stabilising fuel supply and curbing volatility in pump prices.

At the time, independent petroleum marketers disclosed that the refinery had set a target to release up to 600 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit monthly to the domestic market as part of efforts to address supply disruptions and rising costs across the country.

Under the arrangement endorsed by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, selected marketers will handle nationwide distribution to prevent supply disruptions and eliminate speculative practices.

The marketers include MRS Oil Nigeria Plc, Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited Retail, 11 Plc, TotalEnergies Marketing Nigeria, Rainoil Limited, Northwest Petroleum & Gas Company Limited, Ardova Plc, Bovas & Company Limited, AA Rano Nigeria Limited, AYM Shafa Limited, Conoil Plc, and Masters Energy.

The statement noted that the structured offtake model is designed to ensure efficient logistics, reduce hoarding, and support price stability. It added that the refinery would export between 15 million and 20 million litres daily once domestic supply obligations were met.

“This would conserve foreign exchange, improve the country’s trade balance and strengthen external reserves, as Nigeria will no longer rely heavily on imported fuel,” the statement explained.

For decades, Africa’s largest oil producer depended on imported refined products, exposing the economy to exchange rate volatility, global supply disruptions and recurring shortages.

The Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, Bayo Bashir Ojulari, recently described the refinery as a transformative national asset capable of redefining the country’s energy security architecture.

He said, “This plant was designed for 650,000 barrels per day. None of us thought it would even touch 550,000. What we saw live today was 661,000. These are live parameters, not reports or photographs.”

Ojulari added that the refinery represents a new era of industrial capability and technological advancement for Nigeria.

Nigeria has intensified reforms in the oil and gas sector following the deregulation of the downstream market and removal of fuel subsidy under President Bola Tinubu.

The Dangote refinery, Africa’s largest, is expected to play a central role in ending decades of petrol importation, stabilising prices, and positioning Nigeria as a net exporter of refined petroleum products across West and Central Africa.

The success of the structured offtake model could usher in a more stable fuel supply chain and reduce the risk of shortages that have plagued the country for years.

MPC’s modest rate cut sends positive signal – OPS

Yemi-CardosoThe Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria has reduced the benchmark interest rate to 26.5 per cent, a move members of the Organised Private Sector described as minimal but a positive signal for businesses and the broader economy.

At the end of its 304th meeting in Abuja, the MPC cut the Monetary Policy Rate by 50 basis points from 27 per cent to 26.5 per cent. All 11 members of the committee were in attendance.

The CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, announced the decision on Tuesday. “The committee decided to reduce the monetary policy rate by 50 basis points to 26.5 per cent,” Cardoso said.

He added that the MPC also resolved to “retain the Standing Facilities Corridor around the MPR at +50/-450 basis points” and to “retain the Cash Reserve Requirement for Deposit Money Banks at 45.00 per cent, Merchant Banks at 16.00 per cent, and 75.00 per cent for non-TSA public sector deposits.

The latest move marks the second rate cut under the current leadership of the apex bank, following a similar 50-basis-point reduction in September 2025 and a hold at the November 2025 meeting.

Cardoso said the decision was based on “a balanced evaluation of risks to the outlook,” which indicates that “the ongoing disinflation trajectory would continue, largely supported by the lagged transmission of previous monetary tightening, sustained exchange rate stability, and enhanced food supply.”

He disclosed that headline inflation eased to 15.10 per cent in January 2026 from 15.15 per cent in December 2025, marking the eleventh consecutive month of year-on-year decline. According to him, “Food inflation declined markedly to 8.89 per cent from 10.84 per cent,” while “core inflation declined to 17.72 per cent from 18.63 per cent.”

On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation fell to -2.88 per cent in January from 0.54 per cent in December, signalling what the committee described as “a continued softening of price pressures.”

The governor referenced the newly issued Presidential Executive Order 09, which redirects oil and gas revenues into the Federation Account. The committee “welcomed” the order and “acknowledged the potential impact of this Order in improving fiscal revenue and accretion to reserves.”

He reaffirmed the MPC’s commitment to “an evidence-based policy framework, firmly anchored on the Bank’s core mandate of ensuring price stability, while safeguarding the soundness and resilience of the financial system.” The next MPC meeting is scheduled for May 19 and 20, 2026.

Reacting to the decision, members of the Organised Private Sector described the 50-basis-point reduction as cautious but a welcome development. In separate interviews with The PUNCH, private sector leaders said the cut, though modest, signalled a gradual shift toward supporting growth.

Director-General of the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association, Adewale Oyerinde, said the marginal cut indicated that monetary authorities were responding to sustained pressures facing businesses.

“The marginal reduction in the benchmark interest rate represents a cautious but noteworthy signal that monetary authorities are beginning to respond to the sustained pressures facing businesses and the productive sector,” Oyerinde said.

He added, “While the 50 basis point reduction may not immediately translate into significantly lower lending rates, it reflects a gradual shift toward supporting economic growth without undermining price stability.”

Oyerinde stressed that the overall policy stance remained tight due to the retention of the Cash Reserve Ratio at 45 per cent for commercial banks and other liquidity controls. “With a substantial portion of bank deposits still sterilised, the capacity of financial institutions to expand credit to the real sector may remain constrained in the near term,” he remarked.

He noted that inflation, particularly in food, energy, and transportation, continued to pressure employers and households. “For the modest easing in policy rate to have a meaningful impact, it must be complemented by coordinated fiscal and structural reforms that address supply-side constraints, improve infrastructure, and enhance productivity,” Oyerinde said.

National Vice President of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, Segun Kuti-George, described the move as a conscious adjustment to preserve recent monetary gains.

“What this interest rate cut means to me is a conscious adjustment to prevent botching the country’s monetary achievements,” Kuti-George said. “With these reasonable adjustments, there will hopefully be relative stability.”

He added that there had been some improvement in inflation trends, stating, “Prices of consumable goods, particularly foods, have generally stayed below what it used to be in the corresponding time of last year. We hope that the trend will be maintained.”

On his part, Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, described the rate cut as growth-supportive but warned that weak policy transmission and fiscal vulnerabilities could blunt its impact.

“This policy direction is appropriate and growth-supportive. It reflects improving macroeconomic fundamentals and reinforces confidence in the economy’s stabilisation trajectory,” Yusuf said.

He cautioned that lending rates might remain elevated due to structural constraints, stressing, “Unless these structural rigidities are addressed, the benefits of monetary easing may not fully translate into lower borrowing costs for manufacturers, SMEs, agriculture, and other productive sectors.”

Yusuf added that fiscal consolidation remained the missing anchor. “Without fiscal consolidation, monetary easing could be undermined by continued fiscal pressures and crowding-out effects in the financial system,” he stated.

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry welcomed the rate cut as “cautious” and a signal of Nigeria’s shift to stabilisation and investment-led growth.

Director-General of the LCCI, Dr Chinyere Almona, said, “This move signals a significant shift from aggressive monetary tightening toward a stabilisation phase anchored on disinflation, exchange rate convergence, and improving supply-side conditions. It is a cautious, positive step in the right direction.”

The LCCI observed that, whereas the CBN’s decision to retain other monetary parameters suggests that liquidity conditions remain restrictive, the rate cut sends a critical confidence signal to the Organised Private Sector and establishes a pathway toward a gradual reduction in the cost of capital.

But Almona stressed that businesses still require tangible relief in financing costs to restore production, expand capacity, and preserve jobs.