Inflation eases to 14.45%, OPS seeks MSME credit support
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased further in November 2025 as consumer price pressures moderated under the new base year, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
The NBS said the Consumer Price Index rose to 130.5 points in November 2025 from 128.9 points in October, reflecting a 1.6-point increase month on month, but the headline inflation rate declined to 14.45 per cent year on year, compared with 16.05 per cent recorded in October 2025.
This came as the organised private sector stated that the sustained easing of Nigeria’s inflation rate to 14.45 per cent in November 2025 would boost consumer purchasing power and support business activity, while urging the Federal Government to provide targeted credit facilities to micro, small, and medium enterprises.
“The Consumer Price Index rose to 130.5 in November 2025, reflecting a 1.6-point increase from the preceding month (128.9).
In November 2025, the headline inflation rate eased to 14.45 per cent relative to the October 2025 headline inflation rate of 16.05 per cent.
“Looking at the movement, the November 2025 headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 1.6 per cent compared to the October 2025 headline inflation rate,” the NBS report read.
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation stood at 1.22 per cent in November, higher than the 0.93 per cent recorded in October, indicating that average prices still increased at a faster pace during the month despite the moderation in annual inflation.
The statistical agency noted that on a year-on-year basis, headline inflation in November 2025 was 20.15 percentage points lower than the 34.60 per cent recorded in November 2024, largely reflecting the effect of the rebasing exercise, with the new base year set at 2024 instead of 2009.
Data from the report showed that the average CPI for the twelve months ending November 2025 increased by 20.41 per cent compared with the average of the preceding twelve months, representing a sharp slowdown from the 32.77 per cent recorded in November 2024.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributor to headline inflation on a year-on-year basis, accounting for 5.78 percentage points, followed by restaurants and accommodation services at 1.87 percentage points and transport at 1.54 percentage points.
Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels contributed 1.22 percentage points, while education services and health accounted for 0.90 and 0.88 percentage points, respectively.
At the month-on-month level, food and non-alcoholic beverages also drove price increases, contributing 0.49 percentage points, followed by restaurants and accommodation services at 0.16 percentage points and transport at 0.13 percentage points.
A breakdown of inflation across locations showed that urban inflation stood at 13.61 per cent year on year in November 2025, representing a steep decline of 23.49 percentage points from the 37.10 per cent recorded in November 2024.
On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation slowed to 0.95 per cent from 1.14 per cent in October, while the twelve-month average urban inflation rate eased to 20.80 per cent.
In contrast, rural inflation was higher at 15.15 per cent year on year in November, although this was still 17.12 percentage points lower than the 32.27 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2024. Month-on-month rural inflation accelerated sharply to 1.88 per cent from 0.45 per cent in October, reflecting stronger price pressures in rural areas during the month.
Food inflation also moderated significantly on an annual basis. The NBS reported that food inflation stood at 11.08 per cent year on year in November 2025, down by 28.85 percentage points from 39.93 per cent recorded in November 2024.
However, month-on-month food inflation rose to 1.13 per cent from a contraction of 0.37 per cent in October, driven by price increases in items such as dried tomatoes, cassava tubers, shelled periwinkle, ground pepper, eggs, crayfish, egusi, oxtail, and fresh onions.
The average annual food inflation rate for the twelve months ending November 2025 was 19.68 per cent, compared with 38.67 per cent in the corresponding period of 2024. Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, stood at 18.04 per cent year on year in November 2025, down from 28.75 per cent in November 2024.
On a month-on-month basis, core inflation eased slightly to 1.28 per cent from 1.42 per cent in October, while the twelve-month average core inflation rate fell to 20.76 per cent. Other sub-indices showed that farm produce inflation stood at 0.79 per cent in November, compared with zero per cent in October, while energy inflation rose to 1.08 per cent from 0.50 per cent.
Services inflation increased to 1.82 per cent from 1.54 per cent, and goods inflation rose to 0.79 per cent from 0.63 per cent in the previous month. At the state level, Rivers recorded the highest year-on-year all-items inflation rate at 17.78 per cent, followed by Ogun at 17.65 per cent and Ekiti at 16.77 per cent.
Plateau recorded the lowest year-on-year inflation at 9.13 per cent, alongside Kebbi at 10.32 per cent and Katsina at 10.60 per cent. On a month-on-month basis, Bayelsa recorded the highest increase at 6.58 per cent, followed by Gombe at 5.11 per cent and Edo at 4.45 per cent, while Plateau, Delta, and Kaduna recorded declines.
Food inflation at the state level showed that Kogi recorded the highest year-on-year increase at 17.83 per cent, followed by Ogun at 16.52 per cent and Rivers at 16.11 per cent.
Imo, Katsina, and Akwa Ibom recorded the slowest rise in food prices on a year-on-year basis. Month-on-month food inflation was highest in Yobe at 9.52 per cent, Katsina at 6.61 per cent, and Ondo at 6.04 per cent, while Imo, Nasarawa, and Enugu recorded declines.
The NBS cautioned that interstate comparisons should be interpreted carefully, noting that CPI weights vary across states based on consumption patterns, which can make direct comparisons of inflation baskets misleading.
OPS speaks
Reacting to the development, the organised private sector said the sustained easing of Nigeria’s inflation would boost consumer purchasing power and support business activity, while urging the Federal Government to provide targeted credit facilities to micro, small, and medium enterprises.
In separate phone interviews with The PUNCH, stakeholders welcomed the slowdown with cautious optimism. These stakeholders, including the President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, Dr Femi Egbesola, and the President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Leye Kupoluyi, stated that the government must sustain the reforms while providing credit to small businesses.
The President of ASBON said, “The Nigerian economy, particularly MSMEs, still needs support, especially access to funding through government intervention. Targeted credit facilities are critical to ensure small businesses can compete and grow.”
Kupoluyi stated that the continued moderation in inflation would leave more money in the pockets of Nigerians and support consumption.
He said, “When inflation keeps going down, firstly, it will impact the purchasing power of people, and when people can spend money, that is what the business, that is the private sector, wants. We want people to have an income that they can spend on all other items, not just on food.”
Kupoluyi attributed the easing to the fading impact of fuel subsidy removal shocks, improved stability in the petroleum market, and marginal improvement in oil prices, which support foreign inflows.
“The stability in the petroleum market is part of the reason for the inflation to go down,” he said, adding that sustained infrastructure investment and reopening agriculture to large-scale participation would further moderate prices.
LCCI’s president called for structured support for agriculture, noting that food prices remained central to inflation outcomes. Kupoluyi explained: “Everywhere in the world, you need to subsidise agriculture. It may not be direct; it may be an input subsidy or creating a market so farmers do not lose the value of their labour. The more food we make available, the more inflation will keep going down.”
He added that if the trend persisted, Nigerians would begin to feel broader economic improvements by the first quarter of 2026. “There will be a convergence of the Consumer Price Index going down and the Gross Domestic Product going up,” he said.
Also speaking, National Vice President of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, Segun Kuti-George, described the sustained slowdown as a positive signal of policy discipline, even as he cautioned that it did not immediately translate to higher disposable income.
Kuti-George said, “The sustained slowdown of the inflation rate is a good development. Although it does not mean more money in the pocket of the people, it is a reflection of disciplined fiscal and monetary policies.”
He cited the retention of key monetary policy parameters, increased supply of agricultural products, stability in energy prices, and a relatively stable exchange rate as major drivers of the disinflation.
“Stable inflation rates are good for everyone, not only businesses, but consumers also,” he said, explaining that lower inflation would reduce input costs for manufacturers and improve profitability, while easing pressure on household spending.
President of the ASBON, Dr Egbesola, stated that the inflation data indicated that the recent policy reforms were beginning to gain traction and restore confidence among investors and consumers.
He explained that the relative stability in the foreign exchange market and improved food supply contributed to the easing of inflation. “When we have more supply than demand in terms of food, prices will naturally come down, and this affects a whole lot of things,” he said.
He added that easing inflation would lift consumer purchasing power and support MSMEs through higher sales. “For us in the Micro, Small, and Medium-sized Enterprises space, it is good news because when inflation comes down, consumer purchasing power will go up. That means we will sell more of our products, make more profits, retain jobs and stabilise our businesses,” he said.
However, Egbesola warned that improved macroeconomic stability could disproportionately favour large corporations unless the government intervened deliberately to support smaller firms.
“When investment comes into a stable economy, it often goes to more structured companies, the big corporations. That can leave MSMEs behind,” the ASBON president noted, urging the government not to withdraw support prematurely.
He called for sustained intervention through access to affordable funding. “The Nigerian economy, particularly MSMEs, still needs support, especially access to funding through government intervention. Targeted credit facilities are critical to ensure small businesses can compete and grow,” Egbesola stressed.
He added that overall, MSMEs would benefit from lower inflation through improved planning and predictability. “It helps us to forecast costs and revenue better, stabilise prices and create a more predictable business environment,” he said.
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased further in November 2025 as consumer price pressures moderated under the new base year, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
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