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New note crisis: CBN may print naira abroad to ease cash crunch

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The Central Bank of Nigeria may bow to mounting pressure and contract the printing of the redesigned N1,000, N500 and N200 notes to foreign contractors in the coming days in order to boost the circulation of the currency.

This is as the National Council of State advised the apex bank to print more naira notes or re-circulate the old notes, which it had mopped up from circulation, in order to ease the pressure on hapless Nigerians, who had been suffering from the scarcity of the new notes.

A top banker told one of our correspondents on Friday that information available to him indicated that the Mint had succeeded in printing N500bn worth of the new N1,000, N500 and N200 notes and might not have the capacity to do more than that at the moment.

The top banker, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the subject and because he had not been authorised to speak officially on it, said, “It is obvious that what has been printed is not enough. How can you withdraw about N2.1tn from circulation and only print N500bn to replace that?

“Is it not obvious that the NSPMC does not have the capacity to print more than N500bn? With the Mint’s current capacity, to print N2tn will take about a year. Even the N500bn printed has been hijacked by politicians, especially governors. You heard one governor saying one of his colleagues was able to withdraw N500m.

“What the CBN is doing is to give us only 10 per cent of the worth of the old notes we deposit with it. For instance, if a bank takes N1bn to the CBN branch office in its area of operation, it will be given N100m new notes to distribute to its branches nationwide and load onto its ATMs.”

A former top official of the CBN, who spoke to Saturday PUNCH anonymously, echoed a similar sentiment that the Mint might not have the capacity to print more naira notes and that could be responsible for the scarcity of the notes.

The ex-CBN official said, “I think it is a matter of capacity on the part of the Mint. The NSPMC has been solely responsible for the printing of the local currency and its role wasn’t an issue before now because it periodically printed notes, which the CBN released into the system along with those already in circulation. Only mutilated notes were withdrawn by the apex bank and destroyed.

“As it is now, the CBN may have little or no choice but to contract the printing of the new N1,000, N500 and N200 notes to foreign contractors in order to make the new notes go round the country quickly and save the nation the embarrassment caused by the current scarcity and its attendant consequences.”

Efforts to get a response from the CBN through its Director of Corporate Communications, Osita Nwanisobi, were futile as calls made to his mobile telephone did not connect, while he had yet to respond to WhatsApp messages sent to him.

However, an official of the CBN, who pleaded that his identity should be concealed, said there was no problem with the supply of the new notes by the NSPMC, adding that it was a deliberate policy to print limited amounts in order to encourage Nigerians to embrace other means of transaction other than cash.

“We don’t have an issue with what the Mint is doing regarding the printing of the new naira notes. There is no problem with the mint’s capacity. The fund it has expended so far on the printing of the new N1,000, N500 and N200 notes is its budget for the fourth quarter of last year.”

When a telephone number listed on the website of the NSPMC was called on Friday, it rang out. A message sent to the same number had not been replied as of the time of filing this report.

The NSPMC stated on its website, “The MINT has been in charge of the production of local currency notes since they were introduced in 1965. It does this on behalf of the Central Bank of Nigeria.

“For decades, the MINT has produced Nigeria’s naira notes. The notes are among the most secure in the world, with features that are almost impossible to replicate outside of our production systems.”

The CBN had stated in December that it spent over N800bn between 2017 and 2021 to maintain the naira. The apex bank’s Deputy Governor, Financial System Stability, Aisha Ahmad, who appeared before the House of Representatives, added that the amount had spiked by N10bn annually and attributed over 90 per cent of the currency management cost to the production of naira notes.

Council advises Buhari

Meanwhile, the National Council of State on Friday in Abuja advised the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), and the Governor of the CBN, Godwin Emefiele, to either intensify the printing of new naira notes or re-circulate the old ones to ease the hardship being faced by Nigerians.

The country’s highest advisory organ also insisted that the general elections should hold as scheduled based on the readiness of the Independent National Electoral Commission and the Nigeria Police Force.

The Governor of Taraba State, Darius Ishaku, revealed this to State House correspondents at the end of the four-hour hybrid meeting of the council held at the Aso Rock Villa, Abuja.

Ishaku said, “What took more time was the monetary issue because of the hardship caused by money in circulation across all the whole states. In the beginning, people resisted it, even though it was good, but generally, it’s accepted.

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Rising inflation and low economic growth in Nigeria will push a further 2.8 million people into poverty by 2023’s end, the World Bank has disclosed. This is based on a report titled, ‘Macro Poverty Outlook: Country-by-country Analysis and Projections for the Developing World,’ released recently. The Washington-based bank said, “By the end of 2023, the rise in inflation and low economic growth will have contributed to an increase of 2.8 million people in poverty (y-o-y), a 0.4 percentage points bump to 37.5 per cent of the population.” It noted that Nigeria’s high inflation reached a17 17-year high of 24.1 percent (y-o-y) in July 2023, partly reflecting surging food prices and the temporary impact of the removal of the fuel subsidy. It stated that a cumulative 725 basis points hike in the monetary policy rate since May 2022 has had little effect on reining in inflation due to clogged transmission channels, also weakened by direct credit allocation by the central bank, and the continued monetization of the fiscal deficit. The global bank further declared that federal fiscal deficit has risen to 63 per cent higher between January and May 2023 than in the same period in 2022, due to increasing interest payments, higher capital spending ahead of the elections, and the continuous large cost of the fuel subsidy. The impact of this is set to spike public debt to 45 per cent of GDP and keep debt service above total revenue in 2023. It said. “The fiscal financing need and the devaluation of the naira are expected to push the public debt to 45 per cent of GDP and keep the debt service above total revenues in 2023. “The current account balance (CAB) recorded a surplus of 2.2 per cent of GDP in Q1 2023, driven by lower imports and income outflows. However, the small CAB surpluses and capital flows since 2022 have been insufficient to increase foreign reserves, as oil export FX flows to CBN contracted, likely as a result of the direct crude sale-direct fuel purchase arrangements.” The Bretton Woods Institution further predicted that future economic growth in the country will depend on the continued implementation of macro-fiscal and inclusive structural reforms. It stated the current reforms of the government will boost economic growth to an average of 3.4 per cent in 2023-2025. It also expects inflation to begin to moderate by 2024. The World Bank added, “The share of Nigerians living below the international poverty line is expected to peak in 2024 at 38.8 per cent before beginning a gradual decline, as inflation cools down and economic growth picks up. Targeted measures, including cash transfers, could mitigate short-term adjustment costs to the poor and vulnerable and mitigate their risk of falling into intergenerational poverty traps.” Earlier in June, the bank disclosed that inflation pushed an estimated four million people into poverty between January and May 2023. Inflation has since risen to 27.33 per cent as of October 2023.

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