To achieve universal access to electricity and clean cooking by 2030, countries need an integrated approach to energy access that takes full advantage of all available energy solutions. Recently, the federal government launched the Nigeria Integrated Energy Planning Tool in collaboration with Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL). With support from the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet and funding from The Rockefeller Foundation, this tool makes use of geospatial data and modeling to provide a low-cost, dynamic, and data-driven way of identifying the mix of technologies and spending required for achieving universal energy access by 2030. Sunday Ehigiator reports
The recently launched Nigeria Integrated Energy Planning Tool (IEP) on February 3rd, 2022 is an exemplar of a world-class IEP that includes electrification, clean cooking, and productive use. The tool identifies the least-cost mix of solutions to meet demand for a variety of energy services. In addition, the plan also models a variety of scenarios to deliver these solutions.
The tool, which was launched by Vice President Yemi Osinbajo alongside global leaders in the energy sector, is the first wholly integrated energy planner for Nigeria. While traditional energy plans focus primarily on electrification, the Nigeria IEP includes electrification, clean cooking, and productive uses for the entire country.
The Nigeria IEP was developed by the Federal Government of Nigeria in collaboration with SEforALL, with support from the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet and funding from The Rockefeller Foundation. Through this online geospatial visualization platform, energy access data, analysis, and results are publicly available, benefitting a broad range of users, including the public and private sectors.
Osinbajo at the global launch of the Energy Planning Tool, which was held virtually, noted that sustainable energy access was crucial for the country’s development. He said, “Establishing clean, sustainable, and reliable energy access is intertwined with so many of Nigeria’s development goals. We have proven that transforming our energy system is a national priority through our Economic Sustainability Plan, and most recently, with our announcement at COP26 in Glasgow to achieve net zero emissions by 2060.
Osinbajo noted that the Tool would be essential for government to achieve its universal access and clean cooking targets and he committed that all arms of government would promote and use it broadly. He also urged the international community to support Nigeria’s transition efforts with more realistic climate finance support.
Enumerating the benefits of this initiative to Nigeria, experts estimates that the least-cost plan for providing universal electrification through grid, mini-grid and solar home systems would amount to USD 25.8 billion. And for Nigeria to achieve universal access by 2030, the tool estimates that 19.3 million additional connections would be required across the country. This is exclusive of the expected 11.3 million additional connections in places that already have access to electricity due to population growth.
According to research pulled from the IEP platform, a mini-grid represents the least-cost technology for the bulk of these connections (8.9 million connections), with grid (5.4 million) and solar home system (5.0 million) sharing a similar number of connections between them.
When productive use demand from agricultural activities is also included in the analysis, such as maize and rice milling activities, this increases the number of mini-grid least cost communities by around 200,000, it stated.
Though it is capital intensive as the total cost to deliver these connections is estimated to be $22.9 billion, of which $20 billion needs to be invested as up-front capital, given the main technologies being used (i.e., solar) do not consume any fuel and therefore have limited operating cost.
It is estimated that around 53% of households in mini-grid settlements and 92% of households in solar home system settlements would require public support to afford the total cost of ownership of the electrification solution.
Another aspect of energy sustainability being pursued by Nigeria with the tool is the potential for clean cooking solutions which is 3.7 million for LPG, 3.5 million for e-cooking, and 4.3 million for biogas.
The Nigeria IEP estimates that under a business-as-usual scenario, the country would have over 40 million households cooking with emissions intensive and polluting cooking methods by 2030. To address this, there is an overall opportunity to expand clean cooking solutions to 3.7 million households with LPG cooking solutions; 3.5 million households with e-cooking solutions; or 4.3 million households with biogas cooking solutions. The overall cost of implementing these solutions would be $478 million for LPG, $83 million for e-cooking, and $847 million for biogas. The cost of rolling out these technologies is split between stoves, accessories, and the infrastructure required to deliver fuel or electricity.
On its impact and based on the technology that has gone into the tool, it will be vital for the private sector as it will help solution providers identify promising markets and provide useful market intelligence as they roll-out electrification and clean cooking. Another highpoint of the tool is its ability to identify risks associated with technology choice and strategies to promote productive-use demand to unlock economic viability of mini-grids.
Speaking further at the launch about the tool and the determination of the administration to transform the energy sector in Nigeria, Osinbajo said President Muhammadu Buhari is still committed to lifting 100 million people out of poverty and driving economic growth.
The government is also keen on managing long-term job losses in the oil sector that will result from global decarbonization, calling on the international community to support Nigeria’s energy access and energy transition efforts through much-needed climate finance commitments, he noted.
According to Nigeria’s vice president, the tool promotes a holistic approach to achieving SDG7 and energy development while also supporting local manufacturing, expanding local solar technology value chains, and potentially creating 250,000 new jobs in Nigeria’s energy sector.
Also speaking at the event, United Nations Deputy Secretary-General, Amina Mohammed commended the federal government for its bold vision in closing its energy access gaps and for its ambitious Energy Transition Plan that outlines a pathway to net zero by 2060.
She said, “Without prioritising universal energy access, including clean cooking, we will not achieve our global net zero targets. Energy is also critical to achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals, including improved healthcare, better jobs and livelihoods, and greater gender equality.”
Also in her remarks, the CEO and Special Representative to the UN Secretary-General (SRSG) for Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL), Damilola Ogunbiyi, said: “Nigeria is leading the charge with their ambitious commitment to achieve net zero by 2060.”
SEforALL helmswoman noted, “I believe access to accurate and transparent data is critical to decision-making. I hope this demonstrates to other countries an invaluable tool for achieving their own energy access goals.”
Ogunbiyi came on a four-day trip in Nigeria for high-level meetings to harness the potential of the Nigeria IEP in the implementation of Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan.
On his part, President of The Rockefeller Foundation, Dr. Rajiv J. Shah, said as the world strives to turn the commitments from COP26 into action, the Foundation was proud to partner with Nigeria and SEforALL to help communities connect and transition to quality renewable energy.
“The Nigeria Integrated Energy Planning Tool is transformative in its approach to integrated electrification. Not only will it advance our efforts to empower millions of people in Nigeria, it will also provide a model for clean electrification programs, showing the world how to change energy for good,” said Dr Shah.
