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Inflation, hardship weakened Nigerians’ spending in 2022 – NBS

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NBSThe National Bureau of Statistics has disclosed that household final consumption grew by -12.47 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the 7.30 per cent growth rate of Q4 2021.

This disclosure was contained in the new Nigerian Gross Domestic Product Report (Expenditure and Income Approach) for Q3 and Q4 2022.

The report partly read, “Household final consumption, in real terms, grew by -5.83 per cent and -12.47 per cent in Q3 and Q4 of 2022, respectively, on a year-on-year basis. However, these growth rates were lower compared to the growth rates of their corresponding quarters of 2021, which were 19.36 per cent and 7.30 per cent, respectively.”

On the reason for the negative growth, the NBS blamed inflation and challenging economic conditions in the country.

The NBS said, “Growth becomes negative in Q2 to Q4 2022 due to rising prices and challenging economic conditions. In Q3 and Q4 of 2022, growth rates were -5.83% and -12.47%, showing lower rates relative to the corresponding quarters of 2021.”

It was also disclosed that while household consumption for the entire year of 2021 grew 25.65 per cent, it weakened to -4.07 per cent in 2022.

The report read, “On an annual basis, 2022 grew by -4.07% compared to 25.65% in 2021.”

This consumption, which consists of expenditure incurred by resident households on individual consumption goods and services, accounted for 65.17 per cent of real GDP at market prices in Q3 of 2022 and 60.25 per cent in Q4 of 2022, according to the NBS.

According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, household spending is the amount of final consumption expenditure made by households to meet their everyday needs, such as food, clothing, housing (rent), energy, transport, durable goods, health costs, leisure, and miscellaneous services.

Despite the negative growth rate, rising inflation drove Nigerians’ consumption expenditure to N130.08tn in 2022.

This was an increase of N21.61tn or 16.61 per cent when compared to N108.47tn in 2021.

Nigeria’s inflation rate increased for the fourth consecutive month this year to 22.22 per cent in April from the 22.04 per cent recorded in March, maintaining its 17-year high rate.

The April 2023 inflation rate increased by 0.18 percentage points compared to the March 2023 headline inflation rate.

Similarly, on a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 5.40 percentage points higher than the rate recorded in April 2022, which was 16.82 per cent.

The NBS, in its Commodity Price Index report for April 2022, disclosed that key sectors that drove up inflation figures were food and alcoholic beverages, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel, clothing and footwear, and housing.

The Deputy-President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Gabriel Idahosa, recently said the previous government had failed to tackle inflation.

He, however, expressed optimism that if the new government gets its economic policies right, the country may begin to see a slowdown in the inflation rate by the third quarter of the year.

The Vice President of the Nigerian Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, Segun Kuti-George, blamed the over-importation of foreign goods as the primary driver of inflation in the country.

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Rising inflation and low economic growth in Nigeria will push a further 2.8 million people into poverty by 2023’s end, the World Bank has disclosed. This is based on a report titled, ‘Macro Poverty Outlook: Country-by-country Analysis and Projections for the Developing World,’ released recently. The Washington-based bank said, “By the end of 2023, the rise in inflation and low economic growth will have contributed to an increase of 2.8 million people in poverty (y-o-y), a 0.4 percentage points bump to 37.5 per cent of the population.” It noted that Nigeria’s high inflation reached a17 17-year high of 24.1 percent (y-o-y) in July 2023, partly reflecting surging food prices and the temporary impact of the removal of the fuel subsidy. It stated that a cumulative 725 basis points hike in the monetary policy rate since May 2022 has had little effect on reining in inflation due to clogged transmission channels, also weakened by direct credit allocation by the central bank, and the continued monetization of the fiscal deficit. The global bank further declared that federal fiscal deficit has risen to 63 per cent higher between January and May 2023 than in the same period in 2022, due to increasing interest payments, higher capital spending ahead of the elections, and the continuous large cost of the fuel subsidy. The impact of this is set to spike public debt to 45 per cent of GDP and keep debt service above total revenue in 2023. It said. “The fiscal financing need and the devaluation of the naira are expected to push the public debt to 45 per cent of GDP and keep the debt service above total revenues in 2023. “The current account balance (CAB) recorded a surplus of 2.2 per cent of GDP in Q1 2023, driven by lower imports and income outflows. However, the small CAB surpluses and capital flows since 2022 have been insufficient to increase foreign reserves, as oil export FX flows to CBN contracted, likely as a result of the direct crude sale-direct fuel purchase arrangements.” The Bretton Woods Institution further predicted that future economic growth in the country will depend on the continued implementation of macro-fiscal and inclusive structural reforms. It stated the current reforms of the government will boost economic growth to an average of 3.4 per cent in 2023-2025. It also expects inflation to begin to moderate by 2024. The World Bank added, “The share of Nigerians living below the international poverty line is expected to peak in 2024 at 38.8 per cent before beginning a gradual decline, as inflation cools down and economic growth picks up. Targeted measures, including cash transfers, could mitigate short-term adjustment costs to the poor and vulnerable and mitigate their risk of falling into intergenerational poverty traps.” Earlier in June, the bank disclosed that inflation pushed an estimated four million people into poverty between January and May 2023. Inflation has since risen to 27.33 per cent as of October 2023.

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